Latest TWO Headline.

[Stuart]

:unsure: :o

Summer may still returnRather unsettled conditions look likely during the next few days as weather fronts continue to roll in off the Atlantic bringing cloud and rain to most of the UK at times. With this type of set up, it is likely to be coolest and wettest in the north and north west, with south eastern parts probably fairing the best. On a more positive note, there are some indications from computer forecasting models that things may begin to warm up during early September. This would be consistent with many recent years which have brought warmer than average Septembers. The flip side of the coin is that recent Octobers have often brought relatively cool and unsettled weather. This is the pattern which has provided the lead up to many of the mild winters the UK has experienced during the last 10 years.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

Edited August 29, 2006 by Stuart H

[Stuart]

45 day outlook onlineOur first look into Autumn is now available here and covers the period from September 1st to October 15th. The general picture we are expecting is for a warm spell bringing Indian summer conditions for a time during the first half of September, but this maybe followed by a notably unsettled and possibly stormy period of weather during the second half of the month and into October. During the next few days our autumn forecast will be issued, as well as our first forecast of the Christmas weather and a few initial thoughts about what winter may bring.

In the more immediate future it does look as though rather unsettled weather is likely into the weekend. Rain is likely to develop widely and turn heavy at times, although the south east may well miss the worst conditions.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Autumn forecast availableThe TWO UK seasonal forecast for autumn is now available here. The headline is for the autumn period to be slightly milder than the long term average overall, but this will mask large variation in the weather. Although we expect high pressure to bring significant spells of settled weather, we also think there is a greater likelihood this year of some very stormy conditions developing. One notable thing this year so far has been that once a particular type of weather has become establish, it has tended to persist for some time, and this may well continue to be the case during the next few months. The autumn forecast covers the period from 1st September to 30th November

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Initial winter thoughts from TWO:

The autumn forecast we issued took into account historic weather patterns to give an indication of what may happen this year. When this was produced we took the results further forward to see what they suggested the weather could be like this winter. Whilst there was no bias towards any particular weather type in December, the results for January suggested the possibility of a cold or very cold month, and for February the possibility of mild conditions. Our winter forecast will be issued in late November, and the actual weather patterns which develop during the autumn period will have a big influence on it.

Here we are in September and TWO are trying to forecast out to February . Surely this is total guess work and if it happened would just be pure luck.

Here's their thoughts in full:

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/...er/default.aspx

Look at the 3rd chart down on the link. Looks like they've pulled that from way into FI on a so called drunken 18z run

935mb LP

Edited September 3, 2006 by multi cellular thunderstorm

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Why doesn't TWO just wake up to reality - there initial thoughts for January is that it will be unsettled and cold with a possible 2C below the CET are just not credible, I also believe they said it would be quite a 'cyclogenic' month - if so a -2C CET is not possible, but saying that I might have read it wrong lol! But anyway its good to see them 'first out the blocks' when it comes to ramping.

[Stuart]

Staying mostly fineSomewhat cooler and fresher weather is expected during the next few days, however, it should remain generally fine with a good deal of sunny weather. High pressure will remain close to the UK blocking weather fronts from the Atlantic, and by early next week it may well be turning unseasonably warm once again. The medium range forecasting models are suggesting the possibility of less settled weather developing towards the middle of the month, but it is too early to be certain about this.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Less settled weather expectedVery warm or even hot conditions are on the way for southern areas during the early part of the week, however, it does look as though a change is on the way. High pressure is expected to slowly move away, allowing weather fronts from the Atlantic to bring cooler and wetter condition during the middle part of the week. Despite the change it does already look as though September will be a warmer than average, like it often has during recent years. You can check how things are developing on a daily basis here.

Read our 14 day forecast here.

Christmas forecast

Regulars to the site will know that every September we begin our countdown to Christmas and start asking the eternal question, ‘will it be a white one?’ Recent years have despite the relatively mild winters tended to bring a cold snap very close to the festive period with snow falling in parts of the UK. Find out very soon if we think snow is likely this Xmas.

Issued 10/09/2006, 22:00

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

Edited September 11, 2006 by Stuart H

[kippure]

When is it going to be updated???

[johnholmes]

try e mailing them

[kippure]

try e mailing them

Done it

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Done it

Did they answer?

Home page and 14 day outlook haven't been updated for 12 days.

It does say at the bottom of the forecast page 'next scheduled update 26/09/2006'

[Gray-Wolf]

Shows what posting GFS ,FI forcasts before you go off on your 2 weeks in the sun (minus laptop which probably got crunched in the belly of an aircraft as it couldn't go 'hand luggage' ) can do for you and your site......

Edited September 24, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[kippure]

Did they answer?

Home page and 14 day outlook haven't been updated for 12 days.

It does say at the bottom of the forecast page 'next scheduled update 26/09/2006'

Zero

[Paul]

As a guess, if Brian Gaze is on his holidays and not updating the site, he's not likely to be getting emails either

[kippure]

As a guess, if Brian Gaze is on his holidays and not updating the site, he's not likely to be getting emails either

That sounds about right

[Stuart]

Rather unsettledMore unsettled weather is expected during the next few days as a complex area of low pressure pushes showers and more prolonged outbreaks of rain across the UK from time to time. Western areas are likely to see the worst conditions, although as we go towards the weekend some heavy showers could break out almost anywhere. Throughout the next few days it does look as though temperatures will stay well above the seasonal average and we are currently well on track to record one of the warmest Septembers ever in the UK.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

Site updates

Regular site updates have now been resumed after our late summer break! During the run up to Christmas we will be making a lot of further changes to our site as well as introducing new features.

Issued 26/09/2006, 21:40

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

All change!A significant change in the weather looks likely to develop during the next few days. Much cooler air from the north west will begin to punch through the area of high pressure centred over the near continent which has been responsible for keeping a warm southerly airflow embedded across the UK. The change will begin to take place during the weekend as low pressure moves in from the west bringing unsettled weather to many areas. During the early part of next week that looks set to clear away to the east, allowing a rather unstable north westerly flow to develop. Towards the second half of next week it may begin to turn significantly cooler with the possibility of overnight ground frosts developing quite widely in northern regions.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[West is Best]

Something of a change, but looking at the 850 hPa temps it just looks thoroughly normal October weather, if anything still above average. To get something below would probably depend on the high pressure settling over us to bring frosts, but that looks very uncertain at this stage.

This September - likely to be the warmest ever recorded - has lulled us into a false sense of security I suspect!

[Stuart]

Stormy conditions on Friday

Wet, windy and potentially stormy conditions are expected across the UK during the next 36 hours as a vigorous area of low pressure pushes its weather fronts eastwards across the UK. This means all areas are likely to have some significant rainfall and very windy conditions, with the potential for some resulting structural damage, particularly in western parts of the UK. Things may well improve during the weekend as a brisk southerly flow develops bringing very mild air across the UK. Although some further rain is likely, it does look as though next week will be notably warm for October, and south eastern parts in particular may have a good deal of dry and bright weather.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

The new TWO 45 day outlook covering October and the first half of November is now available here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Last warmth of the year?High pressure building over the continent looks set to have a big influence on the weather during the week ahead across the UK as it blocks off the usual conveyor belt of weather systems moving in from the Atlantic. If it was January we would probably be predicting frost and snow with this type of synoptic set up, however, as we are still in the first half of October conditions are actually likely to be warm, with temperatures possibly reaching 21C locally in the south later on in the week. So this week may well bring the last warm weather of the year.

Colder winter?

If the trend towards blocking areas of high pressure building to the north of the UK does become established, this winter could turn out to be one of the coldest of the last 30 years.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

October set to catch a chillJuly was the warmest July on record, September was the warmest September on record and October is currently on target to the warmest October on record. However, we think that it won’t make it, and within the next two weeks a dramatic change in the weather is a prospect with some parts of the UK having their first significant snowfall of the season.

The change from summer like temperatures to almost winter like ones looks a distinct possibility next week as high pressure retrogresses (goes from east to west instead of the usual west to east) and opens the gate to a deep plunge of cold air from the arctic. It is still only October and therefore significant snow is only likely over higher ground in Scotland, none the less, it is likely to feel much colder everywhere and there is the possibility of some sleety conditions making their way further south.

If this pattern change does develop next week, we think there is a significant chance of it reoccurring and possibly bringing cold and frosty conditions around Bonfire Night.

Read our current 14 day forecast here, the next update will be on Thursday

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[tom_f123]

October set to catch a chillJuly was the warmest July on record, September was the warmest September on record and October is currently on target to the warmest October on record. However, we think that it won’t make it, and within the next two weeks a dramatic change in the weather is a prospect with some parts of the UK having their first significant snowfall of the season.

The change from summer like temperatures to almost winter like ones looks a distinct possibility next week as high pressure retrogresses (goes from east to west instead of the usual west to east) and opens the gate to a deep plunge of cold air from the arctic. It is still only October and therefore significant snow is only likely over higher ground in Scotland, none the less, it is likely to feel much colder everywhere and there is the possibility of some sleety conditions making their way further south.

If this pattern change does develop next week, we think there is a significant chance of it reoccurring and possibly bringing cold and frosty conditions around Bonfire Night.

Read our current 14 day forecast here, the next update will be on Thursday

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

sounds good would love a cold and frosty bonfire night :blink:

[lesta_snow]

looks good i dont mind a bit of sleet hehe

[Stuart]

Winter set for early appearance!The current unseasonably warm weather looks set to end in spectacular fashion during the next week as wintry conditions make an early appearance across parts of the UK. A real dramatic change in the weather patterns is expected to develop, and by the middle of next week we expect a very cold north easterly air stream to be covering much of the UK, with the possibility of some snow down to low levels in northern regions.

The change from summer like temperatures to almost winter like ones is expected to be a result of high pressure retrogressing (goes from east to west instead of the usual west to east) and opening the gate to a deep plunge of cold air from the arctic. It is still only October and therefore southern regions are likely to miss the brunt of the cold plunge, but even here there is the possibility of some sleety conditions if the cold airflow becomes embedded for long enough.

If this pattern change does develop next week, we think there is a significant chance of it reoccurring and possibly bringing cold and frosty conditions around Bonfire Night. Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[tom_f123]

cant wait lol dont supose there will be anything here in midlands though lol