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[Stuart]

Week ahead often fineA change from the west to cooler conditions is expected to take place during Monday and Tuesday, and as this happens some outbreaks of possibly thundery rain are likely to be triggered off in places. However, the theme for the week ahead is for another generally dry one with sunny spells. Although the middle part of the week does look like being cooler, temperatures are expected to begin rising again, and by next weekend it may well be very warm or even hot in southern areas.

A number of you have asked us whether the sizzling start to the summer is likely to persist during July and August. It is worth remembering that a number of long range forecasts including our own predicted a warm and sunny June to be followed by much more changeable weather at times during July and August. At the moment we are still expecting this to be the case.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

European summer forecast

The European summer forecast is available here. For western Europe this looks likely to be a summer with two contrasting halves, as warm and sunny conditions give way to much less settled spells later on. In general we expect temperatures to be largely above the long term averages for much of Europe.

Issued 11/06/2006, 12:10

from http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Summers last stand?High pressure will continue to bring fine and warm conditions to southern areas in particular for much of the time during the next ten days. However, we think a major pattern change is waiting in the wings with an unusually large number of active weather systems beginning to queue up in the Atlantic. As we move into July it looks as though a conveyer belt of low pressures and their attendant rain bearing weather fronts will begin crossing the UK. There is still much uncertainty about the timing of possible changes, and computer forecasting models are performing quite poorly at the moment.

Note: Daily weather records were broken earlier this week as we had suggested would be the case. The maximum temperature for the 12th June which has stood since 1897 was broken on Monday with some parts of the UK recording over 31C!

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Cooler conditionsThe week ahead is expected to bring cooler conditions and most places can expect to see some rain. As high pressure retreats low pressure areas will move in from the Atlantic and northern areas in particular may well become unsettled and increasingly cool. Southern areas will remain drier for much of the time, although even here we do expect some rainfall on Wednesday which is the longest day of the year, and according to some definitions marks the start of summer.

A number of you have asked us about our recent comments discussing this summer. It is important to remember that long range forecasts often prove to be inaccurate; however, there have been a number of examples where a scorching start to June has been followed by much poorer weather during July and August.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Fair weekend aheadMany places can expect reasonable weather this weekend, and in southern areas it should feel pleasantly warm in the sunshine. A few showers are likely to develop at times, especially on Saturday, but large parts of the south may remain dry . Developments next week look interesting with some computer models suggesting the Azores high pressure will build towards the UK. If this happens we can expect a good deal of fine, warm and sunny weather. As is often the case things are not that clear cut, and there is some indication from the computer ensembles of wetter an cooler conditions returning later in the week.

June is turning out to be warmer and in many places drier than average. You can check the latest temperature trends for the month here. The warmest June in recent times was in 1976 and this month is unlikely to challenge it for top spot.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Weather in two minds!Forecasting the weather for even a few days ahead can be very difficult in the UK and the week ahead illustrated why this is. By the end of June pressure gradients across our region usually become very slack and consequently weather systems tend to meander around rather than quickly progress from west to east as is the case during most of the year. So predicting the arrival time and development of weather systems often becomes very tricky. However, we do expect temperatures to often remain above the seasonal average especially in southern areas. The real problems are predicting the amount of rainfall and when it will arrive. At the moment it looks as though some thundery outbreaks of rain which could be heavy will develop during the first half of the week, and possibly once again during next weekend.

The uncertainty continues during the following week, although there are some indications of rather unsettled weather becoming established.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Rain for the weekendThe hot and settled weather has now been replaced by much less settled conditions with most areas likely to have some rain during the next few days. A fairly active low pressure system will move in from the west during the weekend bringing wet and windy weather particularly to western and northern regions later on during Saturday. The more persistent rain should clear away from eastern regions during Sunday to leave a mixture of sunshine and showers with temperatures falling back to or even slightly below the seasonal average.

There is some uncertainty about developments next week, although it seems quite possible that high pressure will become established once again to bringing another spell of fine and warm weather. Our summer forecast suggested that June was likely to be the best of the three summer months this year and whether or not this will turn out to be correct should become increasingly clear in the next few weeks.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Summer set to return this weekA rather unsettled start to the week looks set to be quickly replaced by a return to dry and sunny weather as high pressure once again begins to build across the UK. During the second half of the week it does look as though it will begin to turn much warmer, with the possibility of hot conditions developing in time for next weekend. There is plenty of hot air close by over much of continental Europe and this looks like it may edge back towards the UK. One thing to keep an eye on by next weekend is the possibility of thunderstorms again developing in places.

Summer so far

Temperatures across the UK during June and the first part of July have been well above average. If these trends continue during the next couple of months it is still possible that this summer will end up as one of the warmest and driest on record in the UK. The three summers to compare it against would be 1976, 1996 and 2003 in which the UK recorded temperatures of over 100F for the first time ever.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Record breaking Wednesday?The current heat wave looks set to intensify during the next couple of days to reach a peak on Wednesday. There is a good chance that Wednesday will be the hottest July day on record in the United Kingdom, and a significant possibility of it being the hottest day ever. The existing record is 38.5 °C set at Faversham in Kent on 10 August 2003. Temperatures in southern and central areas may locally peak at 39C which is over 100F. The intense heat is being brought about by high pressure over the continent and low pressure in the Atlantic working together to funnel up blisteringly hot air from north Africa and southern Europe. A change to thundery conditions is expected during Thursday and Friday, although it is expected to remain very warm, and perhaps turn dry and sunny again in time for the weekend. Although it is not possible to attribute single weather events to climate change, it is notable that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves across Britain and other parts of Western Europe does seem to be increasing, and this is inline with the expectations of climate change researchers.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Unbelievable. More heat!The hot weather is expected to continue with no real sign of an end at the moment. There will be some thundery activity during the next 48 hours, primarily in eastern and north eastern areas, but beyond that high pressure is set to build again. The first half of next week may well bring exceptionally hot weather back across the UK with temperatures again rising up to 35C or even possibly higher. Computer models are now suggesting the hot weather may continue right through next week. If current patterns continue this summer is likely to end up as one of the three hottest on record, with a chance that it will beat the current benchmark which is 1976.

Your views

How is the hot weather affecting you? Are you enjoying it, or would you prefer a more traditional British summer with short settled spells followed by spells of rain and then showers? During recent years there has been an increase in the number of hot spells in the UK and if the scientists are correct the frequency of these spells is likely to increase even further as global warming begins to bite. Is this something you welcome or not? Let us know your thoughts here.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

Site traffic

Due to the current level of interest in the weather our site is receiving huge numbers of visitors. Please be patient if you do experience slower performance than normal.

Issued 20/07/2006, 22:00

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Hot again this weekHot and sunny weather will continue in many parts of the UK during the first part of the coming week. Towards the middle of the week it does look like turning increasingly humid and there will be an increasing risk of thunderstorms possibly bringing some real torrential downpours in places. Towards the weekend it should turn fresher across the UK, although in south eastern areas in particular it may remain warm or very warm and mainly dry with sunny periods. Confidence for developments towards next weekend is low, but we think the probabilities favour warm or very warm conditions persisting in the south east, with cooler and possibly showery weather further north.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Summer set to catch a chillWe are now confident that the next week will bring a major change in the weather, with hot conditions being replaced by much lower temperatures. The catalyst for this is a shift in the location of high pressure systems. Recently pressure has been high over Europe allowing a hot southerly feed into the UK. In the days ahead pressure is expected to rise over Greenland causing much cooler air from the north to be pushed southwards over the UK. Southern areas can expect maximum daytime temperatures by early next week to peak at around 22C, with northern areas being significantly cooler. Northern parts are also likely to have a fair amount of rain, although much of this may not reach the parched south. What happens beyond the next week is very uncertain, although computer models are suggested the possibility of pressure building from the south west to bring a return to warmer weather.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Cooler with some showersAfter the recent heat wave it will significantly cooler during the week ahead. Although the first week of August often bring the hottest weather of the year, it is unlikely to be the case this year. During the week a northerly airstream is likely to develop and this will hold temperatures down to around 22C in southern areas, with the north being several degrees cooler. There are some indications that things will once again begin to warm up as we move towards the weekend, but there is little sign at the moment of really hot weather returning during the next ten days. Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Decent summer weather for manyHigh pressure is now building to the west of the UK as we discussed earlier in the week. This looks likely to bring a good deal of fine and warm weather during the next ten days, however, the July heat wave is unlikely to be repeated. The exact position of the high is crucial and it does look as though it will be sitting a little too far west to keep things completely fine. With it centred out in the Atlantic there will be the possibility of cloudier conditions running down the eastern side of the UK from time to time, and also of weak weather fronts rolling over the top of it to bring patchy rain into the north west on occasion. So what does this mean in terms of daytime temperatures? As usual cloud cover will have a big impact, but in sunny parts of the south it looks as though values of around 27C to 29C may be reached at times.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[parmenides3]

Just found this. Thanks, Stuart. Keep it up; it's useful.

[Stuart]

Becoming rather coolWith high pressure set to leave back slightly further west in the Atlantic than we had expected, it does look as though temperatures this week will be lower than we had initially expected. The general pattern is for pressure to remain high to the west of the UK, and this in turn opens the gates for cooler air from the far north to push south towards us. In southern areas this means that during the second half of the week daytime temperatures are likely to peak at around 22C, with northern regions being several degrees cooler. Another problem this week is forecasting rainfall amounts. There are some suggestions of significant rainfall, initially in the north and west, but as the northerly airflow becomes established later on, there is the possibility of significant rainfall reaching the east and even south east. We will issue another update on this later in the week. Next week looks likely to see relatively cool conditions persisting for a while before it gradually turns warmer again.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Remaining unsettled. More rain!There is little sign of summer returning during the week ahead as high pressure in the mid-Atlantic continues to allow cloud and rain to slip down from the north. Daytime maximum temperatures in parts of the south during recent days have been peaking at around 17C which is 18C lower than the values that were being recorded only a few weeks ago. However, there are some signs of temperatures rising for a time in southern areas during the middle part of the week, but this may well be the catalyst required for more torrential and thundery downpours to develop. By next weekend it looks as though the unsettled weather will still be covering the UK, but there are some tentative signs of an improvement during the following week with pressure possibly rising in the south.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Summer still on leaveMost parts of the UK can expect further showers or more persistent outbreaks of rain during the next few days. The pattern of low pressure situated over the UK with high pressure sitting out in the mid-Atlantic is expected to continue for a while yet. As we head into next week there is some cause for optimism in southern areas at least, as high pressure may begin building up from the south west to bring drier and warmer weather. At the moment this development is not certain, and we are now approaching September so a repeat of the blistering July heat looks extremely unlikely to happen this year.

Autumn forecast

Autumn is just around the corner now and that means our seasonal forecast will shortly be updated to cover September, October and November. Many people think there is a correlation between the autumn weather patterns and those of the following winter. One belief is the ideal pattern to lead to a cold and snowy winter is a cool and unsettled September, a dry and warm October, and then a chilly and wet November.

Read our updated 14 day forecast here

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Best in the south!Rather unsettled conditions look set to continue as we begin the last full week of summer 2006. In many ways the week ahead will bring fairly traditional British weather, with Atlantic weather fronts being followed briefly by ridges of high pressure. This means that although there will be some sunny and warmer conditions at times, there will also be showers and more persistent outbreaks of rain at times. In general terms it looks as though the sheltered south east can expect the best of the dry weather, and conversely the north west is likely to receive the most rain. The Bank Holiday weekend currently looks quite mixed, with the possibility of rain early on giving way to drier and brighter weather later. We will have an update on this during the week.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Nordic Snowman]

Seems a good shout to me. Roll on autumn when we may get some weather excitement :lol:

[bigboblee]

Best in the south!Rather unsettled conditions look set to continue as we begin the last full week of summer 2006. In many ways the week ahead will bring fairly traditional British weather, with Atlantic weather fronts being followed briefly by ridges of high pressure. This means that although there will be some sunny and warmer conditions at times, there will also be showers and more persistent outbreaks of rain at times. In general terms it looks as though the sheltered south east can expect the best of the dry weather, and conversely the north west is likely to receive the most rain. The Bank Holiday weekend currently looks quite mixed, with the possibility of rain early on giving way to drier and brighter weather later. We will have an update on this during the week.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

YES! Lovely tons and tons of rain are on the way - if you trust the forecasters? - and - again if they are to be believed - Winter will be Mild,windy and WET!

Just my kind of weather so BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stratos Ferric]

Europe braced for Russian winter

The latest TWO 45 day forecast is now available here and points toward often very wintry weather during January and the first half of February. We expect temperatures to be significantly below the average especially in southern and eastern areas, and throughout the period there will be a higher than average risk of substantial snowfall.

Usually Europe looks towards the Atlantic for its weather during the winter and this generally brings rather unsettled conditions with some colder interludes but also long spells of much milder weather. Occasionally we have winters where we need to look towards the east and Russia for our weather and it looks as though this year may well be one of those.

Full article here

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I suspect TWO's calls for wintry weather, often of a serious nature, far outweighs the frequency of its occurrence. I'm sure they were making the same hollers last year.

[TEITS]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I suspect TWO's calls for wintry weather, often of a serious nature, far outweighs the frequency of its occurrence. I'm sure they were making the same hollers last year.

TWO predict's wintry weather more often than I predict E,lys which is saying something

[Stratos Ferric]

TWO predict's wintry weather more often than I predict E,lys which is saying something

EITS, believe me, nothing occurs more frequently than you predicting Easterlies.

...

Oops, no. Daniel...

lol

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

EITS, believe me, nothing occurs more frequently than you predicting Easterlies.

...

Oops, no. Daniel...

lol

Correct the iminent ice age/THC shutdown by Daniel.......one day his words will be right.............one day

BFTP

[Stuart]

A touch of autumn next weekThe contrast between July and August this year has been enormous. July was the hottest month on record in the UK, but August looks as though temperatures for August will be very close to the long term averages and possibly even slightly below them. During the next few days the rather unsettled weather is expected to continue, although in southern parts especially there should be some sunshine at times. The details of the weather on bank holiday Monday are still not certain, but the indications are that it will be rather cool with the possibility of showers in northern regions. There are some indications of more prolonged spells of rain, but these may hold back either until late in the day or Tuesday. It does look as though during the middle part of the week there is a chance of it turning wet and very windy, making it feel quite autumnal.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/