Across the globe!

[wolves78]

The Severe Cyclonic Storm “MALA” over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1430 hrs. IST near Lat. 12.50 N and Long. 90.50 E, about 250 km west-northwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northeasterly direction.

The numerical models as well as synoptic patterns continue to suggest that the system may intensify further and track in a northeasterly direction towards Arakan coast with a possible landfall on 30th April.

Under its influence, scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman Islands during next 48 hours. Gale force winds reaching 70-80 kmph also likely over Andaman Islands during the same period.

currently at cat 1

thats going by the average wind speeds

Edited April 27, 2006 by wolves78

[wolves78]

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “MALA” ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SIX ISSUED AT 1800 UTC OF 28TH APRIL 2006 BASED ON 1500 UTC CHARTS OF 28TH APRIL 2006. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1500 UTC NEAR LAT. 16.0 N AND LONG. 93.0 E ABOUT 500 KM NORTH OF PORTBLAIR. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS ARAKAN COAST WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SANDWAY(48080) BY 29TH NOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR EYE AND ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS T5.5 RPT T5.5. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 100-110 KT GUSTING TO 120 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. STATE OF SEA WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

FORECAST INTENSITY T 6.0 AFTER 12 HOURS.

[wolves78]

MALA image

Edited April 28, 2006 by wolves78

[Mondy]

Going by the loop it looks like MILA has caved in?

To be a rare super cyclone needs to get a move on :o

Edited April 28, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[wolves78]

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “MALA” ADVISORY NO. THIRTY ONE ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 29TH APRIL 2006 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH APRIL 2006. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSSING THE ARAKAN COAST ABOUT 100 KM SOUTH OF SANDOWAY(48080) AT 0600 UTC. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IRREGULAR EYE AND ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS T5.0 RPT T5.0. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 90-100 KT GUSTING TO 110 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. STATE OF SEA WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

FORECAST : THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER LAND .

just wonder how accurate the CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 hPa is? PK any ideas?

Edited April 29, 2006 by wolves78

[wolves78]

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “MALA” ADVISORY NO. THIRTY TWO ISSUED AT 1200 UTC BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH APRIL 2006. VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “MALA” OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL HAS CROSSED THE ARAKAN COAST AROUND 0700 UTC AND WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LIES CENTRED AT 0900 UTC NEAR LAT. 18.0 N AND LONG. 95.0 E OVER LAND.THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN FURTHER.

THIS IS THE FINAL BULLETIN FOR THE SYSTEM

[wolves78]

a few more to keep an eye on

Southern Hem.

95S.INVEST http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...&DISPLAY=Latest

94P.INVEST http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...1km_bw&PROD=geo

91p.INVEST http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...&DISPLAY=Latest

West Pacific

98W.INVEST http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...&DISPLAY=Latest

[P.K.]

Mala was rather strong at 100-110kts. Not quite strong enough to reach Super Cyclonic status though.

[thepokergod]

Hello all.

98w invest in NW Pacfic looks a lot more healthy than this morning. JTWC has potential for cyclone development as fair...about time the NW Pacific got its act together!

P.S Thought i'd add this for a laugh, got a Japanese oral exam on Thursday and I have to prepare a 4 min speech on one of my interests. I've decided to do it on typhoons! COuld be interesting!

Edited May 2, 2006 by thepokergod

[thepokergod]

JTWC have now downgraded likelihood of tropical cyclone formation for invest 98w. More info can be found here:

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

[thepokergod]

98w has dissipated now. This is the latest from JTWC

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 147.2E,

APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS

NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The wait goes on....

[thepokergod]

JTWC have issued a a tropical cyclone formation alert for the disturbance over Palau, off the SE coast of the Phillipines. NRL page already refering to it as 02W.

Will be keeping an eye on this.

Edited May 8, 2006 by thepokergod

[thepokergod]

Tried to post a pic on the previous reply but it didn't work so removed it. 02W has now reached tropical depression strength and is forecast to move NW towards northern Phillipines and strengthen to Severe Tropical storm strength. Here's the latest from JTWC for the next 36 hrs:

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 001

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

081800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 135.2E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 135.2E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

090600Z --- 8.5N 133.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

091800Z --- 9.1N 132.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

100600Z --- 10.1N 131.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

[johnhk]

Hey! I just see something...it's called "Prognostic Reasoning" what is that thing means?

that -Prognostic Reasoning information

WDPN31 PGTW 090300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 02//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 090000Z TO 140000Z MAY 2006.

A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST-

NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO

SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WARNING POSITION

IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.

B. TS 02W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY

OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TS 02W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-

WESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH AND A

BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE

DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, JGSM, AVN, WBAR, AND AFWA MM5

ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON

A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.

C. TS 02W WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

THROUGH TAU 72 AND WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.

D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE

SIZED SYSTEM.

E. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF

A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE AFTER TAU 72 AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN

TO TRACK MORE TO THE WEST TOWARD CENTRAL LUZON THROUGH TAU 120.

THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER

TAU 72 DUE TO DISRUPTED INFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AS THE SYSTEM

TRACKS CLOSER TO THE PHILIPPINES.

3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

NNNN

[thepokergod]

Warning #5 is out for Tropical Storm Chanchu. JTWC forecast it to make landfall on the central eastern coast of the Phillipines in about 30 hours with winds to 75kts gusting to 90kts. Expected to be a strong tropical storm once entering South China Sea but what it does in that region is anyone's guess at the mo.

Current winds are 45kts gusting to 55kts. More info can be found here:

JTWC

I also highly recommend this great typhoon website for the Phillipines - http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

[wolves78]

Tropical Storm Chanchu

TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 015

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

120600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 122.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 122.6E

Edited May 12, 2006 by wolves78

[crimsone]

0530z 13-05-06

Looking very impressive at 75 KT. Lots of outflow. If that's an eye, is a pretty scruffy looking eye of quite a large size.

I assume it's in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle?

Seems to be set to strengthen to 120 KT just before landfall, dropping to 90 KT as landfall is made - right in Hong Kong.

Edited May 13, 2006 by crimsone

[TreizeVents]

[thepokergod]

Funny, the current forecast has TY Chanchu making landfall over Macau, which was the territory which contributed the name! This could potentialy be the strongest storm to affect the Pearl River Delta region in many years.

[crimsone]

Macau is the other side of the delta to Hong Kong.

Big storm, small delta. It probably won't make much difference if it hits either of them.

Edited May 13, 2006 by crimsone

[thepokergod]

Luckily Macau and HK are built very well to withstand these things. If I wasn't stuck in Scotland I'd be on the next flight to Hong Kong!

[TreizeVents]

Philippines - precipitations

May 11th :

190,0 mm Catbalogan

188,0 mm St. Bernard

164,0 mm Libagon

156,0 mm Tambis

123,6 mm Guiuan

110,8 mm Masbate

94,8 mm Legazpi

89,3 mm Maasin

67,6 mm Tacloban

61,6 mm Borongan

May 12th :

155,8 mm Masbate

117,0 mm Tayabas

108,9 mm Ambulong

93,1 mm Tanay

74,2 mm Casiguran

[TreizeVents]

[thepokergod]

CWB (of Taiwan) are going for landfall slightly to the east of HK at the moment but JMA seem to have a similar forecast to JTWC. Get ready HK and Macao!

The eye of Chanchu is clearly visible on satellite now.

[wolves78]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN

/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZMAY2006//

REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140151ZMAY2006//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

(1) AT 140000Z, TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU) WAS LOCATED NEAR

13.7N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND

HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS