Us Chase Day 3 Discussion - Tues 2nd May 2006

[Paul Sherman]

So where do we go for Chase day 3??? Well at the Mo we have not got a clue to be honest. The Slight Risk is an area so vast with so many things happening today with cold front 2 Dry Lines, Triple Points Low pressure areas and Low level jets and moisture returns just about anything could happen. My initial Target area is Woodward just near the border of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, Matt's is further West nearer to Kansas. What we will do is grab updated data before we set off tomorrow and hopefully it will become clearer, if you have any info please give us your opinions as this is one of the strangest forecasts discussions released from the SPC. Will hopefully get some great photos today for you all to see.

Regards

Paul Sherman

[wolves78]

A storm system moving across the northern Plains will drag a cold front through the nation's midsection. This will bring cool air from the north into contact with warm, moist air flowing up from the south. The flash point for strong to severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday. The firing zone will be from northern Texas to southern Iowa. As with most severe thunderstorms, the main threat will be from damaging winds and large hail. However, there will also be the potential for isolated tornadoes, especially Tuesday night from northeastern Oklahoma to southern Missouri.

that target area seems to be the best for some potential for t-day

[Cloudburst]

For me it looks like NE Texas into OK/LA/AR south west border, where thye all come together, the cold front looks like it could well start development there, although models suggest Sup cell risk in north east MO, then these will filter south later on into AR. I perosnally would say the far NE tip (and the far N tip) of Texas looks promising as cape initiates soem very nasty cells to come i think. Let us know where your going as we can track where you are then. P.S looks like we could be getting thunderstorms here also on Thurs

[NL]

AT A GLANCE

There have been 591 tornadoes in the United States since Jan. 1.

MONTHLY TOTALS*

January: 45

February: 15

March: 226

April: 305

* Based on the Preliminary Tornado Report through April 27 from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.

SOURCE: www.spc.noaa.gov

[Gorky]

Personally... I would choose the extreme east of the Texas panhandle as my start location, somehwere between Canadian and Childress. I think storms will initiate just east of Amarillo and move east into OK. They'll probably be high based for a while, but hopefully, you should be able to get some nice shots if everything stays discrete for a while. Tornado threat is marginal today, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few tubes dropping if your lucky... (think of El Reno last week)

[stevestorms]

So where do we go for Chase day 3??? Well at the Mo we have not got a clue to be honest. The Slight Risk is an area so vast with so many things happening today with cold front 2 Dry Lines, Triple Points Low pressure areas and Low level jets and moisture returns just about anything could happen. My initial Target area is Woodward just near the border of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, Matt's is further West nearer to Kansas. What we will do is grab updated data before we set off tomorrow and hopefully it will become clearer, if you have any info please give us your opinions as this is one of the strangest forecasts discussions released from the SPC. Will hopefully get some great photos today for you all to see.

Regards

Paul Sherman

Hi Paul, word on the vine is saying big action Friday onwards and atm friday Panhandles although its still away off Im sure by now you are aware of severe weather events expected FRIDAY TO TUEDAY which is great as we land Thurday night :-) P.S. recommend WOODWARD we have always had a good Tstorm there and it has great road choices.

Edited May 2, 2006 by stevestorms

[Anvil Crawler]

Hi Steve, Paul is not online at present but says thanks for the info, looks like Woodward maybe a bit to far North for today after all as initiation could be further South over South-West Oklahoma around Childress area so we may be playing the Tail end Charlie today, everything pointing towards possible Supercell outbreak today once the cap goes.

Regards

Paul & Ozzie

[Anvil Crawler]

SPC Have Updated the Risk to our First MODERATE Today

Looks like we are just in the Moderate Risk area so when things go boom today we could have some spectacular Structure Shots and possibly my first ever Supercell!! Paul & Matt are grinning like Cheshire cats at the Mo!!

...SRN PLNS...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NWD FROM MUCH

OF TX INTO OK TODAY AS WEAK FRONT NOW IN NW TX/SE OK LIFTS NWD AND

WEAKENS. THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY REINFORCED BY

ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS INVOF THE RED RVR AND NWD. BUT SFC DEW

POINTS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER

CNTRL/NRN OK.

LARGE SCALE FORCING OVER REGION SHOULD BE WEAK. APPARENT IMPULSE

NOW OVER AZ MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SRN HI PLNS LATE TODAY/EARLY

THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE FEATURE IS NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN THE

GUIDANCE. IN FACT...THE GFS FORECASTS MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER

SW TX THROUGH THE DAY. AT BEST THIS MAY ENHANCE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER

AREAS FARTHER N AND E INTO OK.

AT ANY RATE...COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...IMPLIED UPR

DIFFLUENCE...AND LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND

AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP AND PROMOTE STORM

DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SW KS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

40+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...SOME OF WHICH MAY

INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND

SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. SETUP COULD ALSO YIELD A TORNADO OR

TWO GIVEN HIGH SBCAPE /AOA 2500 J PER KG/ AND LIKELIHOOD FOR

BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS/BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF REMNANT FRONT.

THIS THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW TX INTO

WRN AND PERHAPS CNTRL OK. THE STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL

CLUSTERS AND MOVE GENERALLY EAST TOWARD THE LWR PLNS DURING THE

EVENING...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ.

Paul Sherman & Ozzie

[Gorky]

Well they've just upped the area to a moderate risk based on hail risk. Also there is now a hatched 10% tornado chance in Western OK. Looks like a good day on the cards...

Good luck guys.. you don't know how envious I am of you being out there

[south_holland_uk]

I think we are all envious but the best we can do at the mo is support the chasers and save £ for next year.

stay safe S.H.U

[fuzion]

risk for 2day looking good for nw teams area

upgarded as pridicted to moderate see below

[conor123]

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/latest.gif

here is a great radar image (warning:large image)

[kold weather]

SW OK is where I'd place myslef today though anywhere in OK could see something today I'd guess looking at the steering wind directions. Already some fairly potent cells present in this region just to the south of Okaholma.

Obs from 12z suggest 1000 cape was present st the time if the cap can be broken, and models are forecasting some pretty massive amounts of SB cape is present, in fact some models put it upto 4400kj's west of Okaholma city. Present obs for the SW suggests temps are between 73-79F and dew-points just or above 60F generally, with the convective tmep at 26c is reachable for sure. RH generally in the southern plains generally between 50-80% today so lack of moisture should be a problem really either. With these sorts of obs presently we are looking at roughly (Only averaged!) at about 1600kjs of cape.

The problem lies in that the strongest shear is located to the south of this high cape area over S.OK as a weak jet streak moves through giving about 30-35kts of deep shear. In this region there is less cape for sure, but it still gets upto about 2000kjs according to the models.

So Ozzie may well see his first supercell if the storms fire up. However I'm personally doubtful he'll see any tornadoes, there is a absense of any real decent shear at low levels with Helicity being very low, esp at the 0-1km scale.

Also looking at the 12z obs shows a fairly large layer of dry air in the middle parts of the atmopshere (at 500mbs, dew-points get down to -20C!), which is a good sign for some large hail, so thats possibly something to look out for I think, I'd be expecting reports of hail upwards of 1 inch, maybe getting upto 2 1/2 inches in the strongest storms.

I'd place myslef 20-30 miles North-east of Atlus, OK. hopefully you get a better day today in terms of storm chasing!

[Gorky]

The soundings from Frederick don't look bad at all (5000 CAPE at 21z predicted). Shear profiles look a bit better than most other areas, but still not great. If there are going to be any tornadoes today, I'd expect it to be in this area.

[Paul Sherman]

Currently sitting outside a Super 8 in Elk City, temps and dewpoints moist and waiting for Initiation hopefully in around 2 hours. NOAA Going for Discrete Supercells with Possible Tornadoes and Baseball Hail. So we will wait on I40 Until something becomes apparant, Barons working superbly so let see.

Regards

Paul Sherman

[kold weather]

Good to hear that the Barons is working well Paul, think you might need it if you dare to punch the hail core of any systems. (Elk city isn't far away from where I set myslef out virtually as it happens!)

[Paul Sherman]

Matt just been on the phone to Dave Ewoldt from Ukww (Okarche Dave) who is fifty miles behind us in Weatherford. We are going to wait for him to tag along and possibly drop South on Highway 83, this is the part where the adrenalin starts to rush with such a big chance for Tornadoes today, It will be good to have a US Based Chaser along with us today as well.

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

Still sitting here in Elk City awaiting things to go bang, Pronounced and Extensive Cumulus Field now visible to our South and things starting to get interesting with some cloud tops getting High. We have the approaching Dryline just to the West with Warm front coming North and SPC Expecting things to happen where these two meet. Have just seen the KYTV News crew filling up at a Gas Station. Nearly 230pm here.

Paul Sherman

Right things could get very interesting VERY Soon as this has just been issued by SPC. We are bang smack in the Target zone and just waiting, but Tornadoes look VERY Likely now

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0222 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W/NW TX INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK AND

SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 021922Z - 021945Z

ONE OR TWO TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS PARTS OF

W/NW TX NWD THROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK/SWRN KS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/ CONTINUES TO

RETURN NWD THROUGH NW TX INTO ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK...

ALONG/E OF THE DRY LINE. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATED CU HAS

DEVELOPED WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. TCU RECENTLY FORMED

SE OF AMA INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING INHIBITION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES

REACH CONVECTIVE VALUES AROUND 90 F. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT

AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE

LIKELIHOOD FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY

COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR

DRY LINE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING

STORMS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

..PETERS.. 05/02/2006

Ozzie could see his 1st Supercell very soon.

Paul Sherman

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Sounds perfect!

Good luck and hope you get some good pics.

[Paul Sherman]

OMG OMG, Weather Radio screeching with Tornado Warning for Our County, currently sitting in Beckham County which has Tornado Watch 247 until 11pm CDT, Great Target Area today, Just waiting still.

Paul Sherman

[kold weather]

Won't be long now Paul, surface temps look to be quite close to the values that are needed to kick off convection widely. I'm still not amazingly impressed by the low level shear (Though saying that at 850mbs it does get upto 25kts and there is some directional shear at low levels) so you should still see a few tornadoes out of that if you are in the right place, though the deep shear looks good enough for some supes for sure and I'd think hail will be a large threat as well. Warning also now extends into Texas according to the SPC.

[Gorky]

Looks like things are getting going... Seems to be a cell trying to break through near Pampa. Should be the first of many today.

[Cloudburst]

OMG OMG, Weather Radio screeching with Tornado Warning for Our County, currently sitting in Beckham County which has Tornado Watch 247 until 11pm CDT, Great Target Area today, Just waiting still.

Paul Sherman

Hi paul, sorry to ask a stupid question but is that county visible on the oklahoma radar?

-its ok , got it (currently logged on GRLEVEL3) , a very nice cell to the east of you, to the east of oklahoma city.

Edited May 2, 2006 by ¤CloudBurst¤

[Gorky]

Hi paul, sorry to ask a stupid question but is that county visible on the oklahoma radar?

The radar site at Frederick, OK is closest. Vance AFB, OK and Amarillo, Tx are also justwithin range

[Cloudburst]

The radar site at Frederick, OK is closest. Vance AFB, OK and Amarillo, Tx are also justwithin range

Yep cheers for that

Paul looks like a nice cell to your west, can you see it yet? Tops up to 30,000ft.

Edited May 2, 2006 by ¤CloudBurst¤