Us Chase Day 6 Discussion - 5th May 2006

[Paul Sherman]

Friday 5th May brings us our best chance of the week for Tornadoes and i'd expect this to be Upgraded to a Moderate Risk, it looks like we will be targeting west of Lubbock in the Texas Panhandle and expect Supercells to initiate on the New Mexico Border, main concerns look likely to be 4" Hail and Tornadoes, Can't wait.

This really has been an amazing week for us, I have seen these outbreaks before but never actually been over here in one. As usual if you think we are going wrong please feel free to give us your opinions, as we will check data when we get Wifi on the way.

Regards

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

It is Groundhog Day for us again but with a better chance of Spin Ups for Friday

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO

50 KT/ IS FORECAST IN A CYCLONIC BELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH MUCH OF TEXAS TODAY. WHILE

THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC

ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE STORMS AS COMPARED TO RECENT

DAYS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO

INFLUENCE OF SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CONSIDERABLE

CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF WEAKENING

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH

PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE

SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING MAY

ULTIMATELY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE

AND PECOS VALLEYS. VERY MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE

VALLEY WITH 70F DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS DEL RIO. ADVECTION OF

THIS MOIST TONGUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE PECOS VALLEY SHOULD OCCUR

TODAY...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE REACHING

2000-3000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.

AS NEXT UPPER IMPULSE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS

AFTERNOON...INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED

ALONG OUTFLOW/SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MIDLAND

AREA...AND ALONG DRY LINE NEAR THE PECOS RIVER. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS

ARE EXPECTED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE

EVOLVING UPSCALE INTO A STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS

INFLOW STRENGTHENS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET

THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

Paul Sherman

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Good luck today Paul (what time is it now? About 3 in the morning?)

Lots of fantastic pictures and reports so far....long may it continue.

Edit - Just seen your post in the other thread...one hour out

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks Chris, yes it is 2am, another very long day, 3am yesterday, today looks the best of the week for Tornadoes eg everything is there for spin ups, High Dp's good wind shear and jet streak, could be a good un, am just having another Bud and smoking myself to oblivion and then i must hit the sack, up early to get into position tomorrow, i mean today

Paul Sherman

[fuzion]

looks like you should have an active day again today at this rate you wont have a down day

anyway good luck

[NL]

Todays forecast........

Tomorrows forecast..........

[Gorky]

I think the main issue today is probably going to be the terrain.. I think Texas gets quite hilly and wooded south of I-10, which is obviously problematic for chasing. I'd therefore hope the action isn't as far south as the SPC are thinking. My start location for today would be around San Angelo. Probably not an ideal spot, but taking into account road networks and wifi access is important, even if it is a virtual chase. All good practice for when I hopefully get out there next year (fingers crossed) Another possibility would be further toward Odessa looking for some action later on. Looking over yesterdays highlights, some of the late forming cells in that area were absolute classics and stayed discrete!, I think a similar situation is possible today B)

Edited May 5, 2006 by Gorky

[Roger J Smith]

1600z 5 May

Would agree with Gorky on the general risk zone being somewhat to the south of Lubbock, a position between Odessa TX and Hobbs NM possibly just inside the s.e. corner of NM may be the spot today. Surface low forming in NM with n.w.-s.e. trough will allow convergence of low level moisture around a developing triple point near Hobbs NM, so over NM there may be some TRW+ drifting southwest later today. With a dry line punching into the moist Gulf air from approximately Hobbs through Kermit to the Big Bend (this is sounding more like Sesame Street than I intended) best risk zone for severe weather is likely to be along the quasi-stationary front already well indicated by temperature and cloud contrast lying just south of Odessa to north of San Angelo. Anywhere along this frontal zone should see some risk of supercell development but for max risk I would suggest a position as close to the southeast corner of NM as roads will allow, either side of the state line. Development should be fairly steady today, not a late bloomer but then lasting well into the night as the wave forming in NM ripples e.s.e. along the frontal boundary. This may mean that storms of interest will move little at first and then begin to trundle e.s.e. later.

Saturday's max risk is probably further east between Brady and Temple. Could be more tornadic than today.

[Paul Sherman]

***UPDATE***

Have Blasted South from San Angelo to be in Eldorado in Schliecher County in Texas which has just had a Tornado Watch issued, so yet again we are bang in the Middle of the Watch area and just waiting for it to go Boom. This time it looks VERY Good for Supercells with Tornadoes the main threat and NOT Large Hail so much, SPC Over here warning of a possible Outbreak of Tornadoes today, so we wait.

Paul Sherman

[Adi F]

Hi Paul sounds like your having a great trip, better than last years

Keep up with the reports and remember keep safe

[wolves78]

ty for the update paul hope you get a few nados tday happy hunting

[Anvil Crawler]

Hi guys we are currently here ready for the action. We have just spoke to sherriff as he pulled up besides us and he has give us his number to keep in touch in case of touch downs.he also said we can use is office.

[Andy Bown]

Hi guys we are currently here ready for the action.We have just spoke to sherriff as he pulled up besides us and he has give us his number to keep in touch in case of touch downs.he also said we can use is office.

That's great. I guess it's midday now so still very early and already a tornado watch in force!!

[tinybill]

if you guys are near perry to vidalia acc to the radar you should see some great action

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...1101111&loop=no

[wolves78]

Hi guys we are currently here ready for the action. We have just spoke to sherriff as he pulled up besides us and he has give us his number to keep in touch in case of touch downs.he also said we can use is office.

thanks for that ozzie i was gona ask in a bit were you are as im on the live cam look out again

have fun and be safe you lot

[Paul Sherman]

Our current thinking is sitting put for a while, we are the Southern Most point in the Tornado Watch box and this Tornado Watch is 200 miles across, so if something kicks off way North we may have to not be tempted by it initially. Tinybill the Radar you have posted is not relevant to our Tornado Watch, Georgia is over 1000 miles away from our position and not in the Moderate watch area. As Ozzie says the Sheriff of Eldorado just pulled alongside and grabbed some data and gave us his Cellphone number to keep him in touch with events later. I am expecting initiation in about 2 hours. Just to update you Steve Landsell (Stevestorms) is currently making his way here and is currently in Seymour (Tx).

Regards

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

***UPDATE***

3.15pm here and still sitting tight in Eldorado (Tx) a nice pronounced CU Field now to our west and another propogating from the east. Temps at 82f with Dewpoints now 61f with Relative Humidity at 59%, pressure falling. So if we don't post soon it is because we are taking off after rapid convection.

Regards

Paul Sherman

[Mammatus]

Thanks for the updates PS. Sounds like your having a great time out there. Keep your posts coming in mate, interesting reading. Although I'd much much prefer to be out there observing, chasing, watching, analysising data etc with you guys, very jelious. Next year

Mammatus

[Gorky]

What exactly is the terrain like around that area? How far south can you feasibly chase before running into the hills of Southern Texas? I have no real idea about the idea, just memories of a lot of chase reports moaning about that area for chasing

[Paul Sherman]

Hi, It gets pretty bad South West of Senora but other than that amazing with Cactus and views of about 40 miles all around. Things are rapidly changing now with explosive Cb's going up all around, won't be long now before one roots itself and off we go.

Paul Sherman

[wolves78]

paul ozzie and the team dont know if you have already seen this but this is the hail from last night in abilene just thought you might like to see what you could be in for tnite as there is a greater risk be carefull you lot

Edited May 5, 2006 by wolves78

[Roger J Smith]

Things may work out well from this location. Cell development is rather gradual, one minor TRW near Fort Stockton about 75 miles to the west of team's location. Another cluster in s.e. NM showing signs of more rapid development. However, in about two hours the portion of the dry line between these cells may also get active and then the present location could be ground zero for arrival of tornadic storms around 00z to 03z or 7 pm to 10 pm CDT. Winds at Guad Pass have picked up past hour which is a good sign of dry inflow and 2-3 hour signal for TRW+ development.

[wolves78]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0335 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 052035Z - 052230Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER

TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE

HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING

MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR

PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF

SWRN TX JUST E OF MARFA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE

JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID

LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE

FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY

HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD.

FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS

OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES

TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS

WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM

2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL

AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

Things may work out well from this location. Cell development is rather gradual, one minor TRW near Fort Stockton about 75 miles to the west of team's location. Another cluster in s.e. NM showing signs of more rapid development. However, in about two hours the portion of the dry line between these cells may also get active and then the present location could be ground zero for arrival of tornadic storms around 00z to 03z or 7 pm to 10 pm CDT. Winds at Guad Pass have picked up past hour which is a good sign of dry inflow and 2-3 hour signal for TRW+ development.

they seem to be in the right place for the best part of the storms ty RJS

[Themightyimp]

Damn I'm really jealous of you lot out there,If my wife had stuck by her offer to me i'd be out there aswell.

Good luck and be safe chaps.

[wolves78]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 294

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

425 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NEW MEXICO

WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 425 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ABILENE

TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).