Atlantic Tropical Waves

[kold weather]

Once more a qucik update:

Two main waves that I'm watching presently, one quite close to the NE caribbean. this one has had a nice flare-up of convection and does appear to have a MLC though its worth noting that the bouys aren't really showing much of a pressure drop at the surface so any organisation has yet to work its way down. This should work its way towards Bermuda region as the steering is a northerly. The second wave is to that one's SE and is moving WNW in the general direction of the caribbean. it has a small but decent structure and has got some deecnt convection, may be one to watch down the line.

Still for now, they look like pretty classic June waves, though prehaps a little stronger then you'd expect thanks to good amounts of moisture in the tropical region with the main dry air in the Caribbean region.

[kold weather]

Well not a lot of actvity that really stands much of a chance of developing into anything more then a wave feature right now.

The first area of possible note is near the Bahamas and as it happens atmopsheric condtions really aren't that bad. There's good convection present and some large flare-ups but the system has no center at all even at mid-levels which makes it extremely unlikely to form into anything, besides track is presently roughly NNE it seems according to IR though it may not get away rom the region quickly enough before aridge builds to its north and blocks it. I've got a feeling it does need to be watched though just in case.

The second system is a MCS that is presently nearby Texas. Like the system over the Bahamas its got no low pressure at al ltherefore it is extremely unlikely to become aanything other then what it presently is, a weakening Meso-convective system, though it is giving some intense rainfall to SE texas.

Apart from that not really anything of note in the tropics apart from the usual daily flare-ups from convective systems but waves from the far east aren't really doing well.

Actually I forgot to mention a system currently in the Caribbean. It's quite disorganised as well but in terms of places where storms develop its now heading towards a area of the Caribbean that is usually favored for development at this time of year, not saying that it'll happen mind you!

Still its got some nice convection right now but it needs to get more organised stil...abit liike the other two disturbances I've mentioned.

[kold weather]

Still some convection in the Caribbean presently but the main feature is still the feature in the Bahamas. I'm paying close attetion to this feature now. Some of the 'lesser' models are now latching onto this mass of convection and forming it into some sort of tropical cyclone, though not that strong presently anyway. so I think it needs to be watched closely just in case so I'll cover it in a little bit of depth.

SST's beneath it are presently marginal but they are high enough to suggest that tropical development is possible. Nonetheless the convection is presently being hit by some decent WSW/SW shear which blowing away the cloud tops to the NE as IR shows nicely. This shear will be key as to whether a system can form from this convection or not.

It's certainly not looking to bad right now with several flare-ups. Still there is no real center yet though its worth noting there is a Upper level low but this will have to work its way down to the surface further before we can get an invest on this system and if we are to get an invest then we need the shear to relax. The models are generally not expecting any slackening in the shear over the next 24hrs though the models aren't great with this sort of stuff and they are expecting a small area of slacker shear to the north of the system and therefore it may not be impossible for this to end up on this convection mass. if it doesn't though and the models are right any type of development may be a little way away yet.

Way to early to even talk about any track yet as it simply doesn't even have a proper center so even a invest is still at least 12hrs out yet if it does continue to develop and any further tropical development is probably a good 2-4 days away yet at least but its got a fighting chance. Short term track for the mass of convection should be quite easy though as a weakness to the systems north (Which has caused a slight NNE trakc over the last 24hrs.) which should fill in and stop the system from moving further north and stall the system for a little while I reckon as another ridge forms to the systems north, maybe eventually a westward track will occur towards Florida but its a long way out yet.

anyway needs to be watched this mass, could wlel be out second system eventually...but got plenty of time to watch this system.

[Paranoid]

Has anyone got any links to the models? I can never find them. Also, which way would the system in the bahamas move? because if it heads west into florida it's not going to have much time to develop

[kold weather]

Hi Paranoid, heres the models:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The system would probably not move much at all Paranoid at least for the next 24-48, after that prehaps a slow westward drift will eventually occur but its way to early to even try and forecast this system becuase as of now...there is no system to track, its just a mass of convection with no lower level system at all and still fairly high pressure so I certainly wouldn't fret about it.

Besides as you said Paranoid, it probably wouldn't have the room to form into anything more then a TD or possibly weak TS IF it did actual form a LLC because it probably has about 120hrs on water before pushing westwards onto land.

[crimsone]

530 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

805 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W/68W MOVING WEST 15 KT TO 20 KT. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W HAVE BEEN WEAKENING IN THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OCCURRING IN VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER

LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 16N86W. THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER LAND IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS SIX HOURS AGO HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 85W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 20N.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N13W 8N21W 8N29W 7N33W 5N41W 6N55W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AFRICA COAST FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N21W 8N32W 4N43W 4N51W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N EAST OF 20W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 69W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER LAND IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS SIX HOURS AGO HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 85W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER INTERIOR COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND THE LAKE MARACAIBO AREA OF VENEZUELA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. THE COLOMBIA THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DUE TO THE ITCZ...NOT SURE. THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF 12N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OFTHE AREA OVER THE WATERS HAVE DISSIPATED. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. THE FLOW NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IS CYCLONIC...WAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

$$

MT

The GFDL doesn't seem to like it at the moment - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi...;hour=Animation

nor what can be seen of the UKMET - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

Though, thew GFS might make something small out of it - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

as might the NOGAPS model... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.c...;hour=Animation

and the CMC - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

Conclusion - the models are split.

Any suggestions out there from a real person, and indications of what might be going on?

Edited June 24, 2006 by crimsone

[kold weather]

Well my first area of disturbance I've been mentioning has been upgraded to Invest 91L. Its tricky this one because it doesn't look that bad. It's got good circulation but convection is really lacking near its center. There does appear to be some circulation buts its quite detached from the convection. Anyway its weakened quite abit overnight because it has injested some dry air from Florida it seems. Satelite estimates are suggesting that 91L is extremely weak now and it has only got 29kts of wind so I should think that notihng will come of the system sadly now.

Also now ther eis another system, Invest 92L. I'll be breif on this one since I've only just come back online therefore haven't really looked at it yet but it seems to be in a very intresting position in that its in a similar place as to where the last few storms of 2005 formed Like Delta, Zeta and Epsilon.)

Still its looking quite a nice feature so far though it is quite a small system its got a well established upper circulation already present (Though it is cold cored) It's also got some decent convection present so its already quite an established system but it is an upper feature and cold cored.

If Invest 92L can carry the closed low pressure down tow3ards the surface and this becomes evident over the next 24hrs then it'll be upgraded as a tropical depression and then it'd have a strong chance of becoming TS Beryl despite the high pressure its presently got (thanks to being near a Bermuda high cell!) Still its in the early days but it needs watching because there's not much bar marginal SST's that will stop a system from developing here because there is little shear presently about as you can tell by the satelite imagery and also its surrounded by some very moist air because its already established as a feature so all it takes is some more convection and also it to become more warm cored and there we go!

Anyway Breifly onto the models which at this early stage are very unrealiable but they are showihng the ssytem becoming a weak TS (Which I actually agree with) and eventually tracking NW which is the general direction its heading anyway.

I'll update about 92L tommorow where all shall be more clear!

Here's the model plots:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

[crimsone]

92L wasn't there when I posted, but has now been listed on the nrlmry tropical page.

I guess there's still a chance for 91L, but in view of your analysis (which is far better than I could do - have you ever considered working for the NHC and giving a "plain english discussion" KW? - I would have to agree that if your observations are correct, then you are probably right that nothing will come of it.

[summer blizzard]

000

ABNT20 KNHC 241515

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT

ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED

SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS

SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL

DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER

AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF

NECESSARY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN

ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT

900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH

SUNDAY.

Persoanlly, i think that Invest 91L may just make Tropical Depression Status before hitting northern Florida, as for 92L, i think that we may get a category 2 or 3 hurricane out of this because with quite faviourable conditions, i expect rapid development, i hav anotated the track map to show my expected track.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Edited June 24, 2006 by summer blizzard

[wolves78]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 32W/33W

SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT

PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED

ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE

AREA IS ALONG 43W/44W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS

NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A

CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON

THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK

WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE

IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY

ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N32W 8N40W 4N53W. SCATTERED

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 100/150 NM OF

THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-41W AND WEST OF 46W.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...mp;STYLE=tables

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/A...umb/Latest.html

[crimsone]

What and where is 93L? I can never seem to work out from the nrlmry page where an invest is supposed to be.

Given the NHC discussion, it's probably nothing to get excited over, but I'd still like to know!

[summer blizzard]

93L

[crimsone]

93L

Thanking you very much more that

[kold weather]

91L still seems to in exsitance it seems. Plenty of thunderstorms have been present over the last 24hrs close to the systems ULL and prehaps there is a hint of lower circulation closer to land but I'd be suprised still if anything came of this system though its got some good convection thanks to the ULL. Maybe it does still need to be watched...

93L is a lot more intresting to me and is possibly a system to watch over the next week. It presently has some decent convective coverage along with the odd decent flare-up. Mind you it is still an open wave and is still quite disorganised. There is some dry air in front of the wave but its presently not causing any problems for the system. shear is prehaps a little high according to the shear maps however that really won't matter that much because the system hasn't even got anything looking like a closed center yet and so at the quickest any development is a good 24hrs away though it does have some sort of circulation higher up and I suspect while looking good shear will be a little too much for another 3-4 days for anything to form and it won't be till its in the eastern half of the Caribbean that any development may well take place in the warm waters.

Very hard to tell where this one is going to go but there are two main features in play syntopically, LP over the far S. extent of the Caribbean which is forecast to drift westwards and a strong Bermuda high cell which is extending towards SE America by 120hrs. This suggests that a general WNW/W movement is likely.

[summer blizzard]

Just thought i would update on invest 93L...

At the moment it is a 1013mb upper low with sustained windspeeds of 20Knots (25mph), in order for this system to be upgraded to Tropical Depression staus, other than becoming a surface low, sustained windspeeds must be 35mph, based on its current strength, i agree that no significant development can be expected however with lighter shear ahead of it between 24 and 72 hours out, i think that this system will be upgraded to a Tropical Depression with the possibility of being a weak Tropical Storm in around 72 hours and with sea surface temperatures of 27C to 30C ahead of it, i think that development can be expected, unfortunately, ddue to the track of the system, the chances of a hurricane developing are slim.

[kold weather]

It all depends on the track Summer. There looks to be some shear in the Caribbean for the next 96-120hrs so if it continues to move W/WNW like presently its going to head headlong towards that shear by the end of the week.

The models are forecasting the system to move NW though but this is based on the system becoming a TD over the next 24hrs which I don't think will happen. Remember the Beta effect and how the stronger the system the more tendancy to move poleward.

Also while I'm here its intresting to see a flare-up on Invest 91L....

Recon is going to investigate the system today and the NHc have issued a special tropical disturbance statement which follows:

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

I'm still not sure though that the circulation is closed at the surface though which is why I'm not at all sure bevcause satelite and obs in the area doesn't really suggest this though under the flare-up of convection there may wel lbe a closed LLC, which if its true will see the system upgraded to TD2, recon will either confirm or deny the system that chance because its now racing away from the warmer waters and off to the N/NNE. Still its under the hottest part of the Gulf stream which is increasing the heat content and making the real difference to the system and really boosting it and the system should ride the gulf stream over the next 24hrs or so.

It certainly looks much more impressive then it did yesterday and the day before thanks to that large flare-up and it does look like a TD but I'm not sure about the LLC being fully closed, something only recon wil lbe able to confirm or not. Still at the very least we've got a strong ULL with some decent convection but is it at the surface...well recon will find out!!!!

(ps, reminds me of TS Tammy last year, may well be very similar...)

[summer blizzard]

In regards to 91L, it looks very interesting and i expect it to be upgraded to a Tropical Depression anytime.

In regards to 93L, while there will be shear over it all weak, shear should relax during tommorow and thursday, as for its track, i think a track similar to Hurricane Dennis last year is likely, i expect a Tropical Depression to form within the 48 hours.

[kold weather]

Intresting thoughts on 93L SB, if it can slow a little then its in decent enough environment to become a TD as its presently got a decent structure, as you say shear does relax a little over the next 48hrs as well which may mean it has a window to strengthen. I'll be intrested to see what the system is like tommorow morning, I would pay close attention to this system though.

Anyway short update on Invest 91L and that is as I had half suspected the system has no LLC with recon mainly finding southerly winds and the system doesn't even look close to having a closed LLC. nionetheless the ULL is still pumping up some juicy T-storms and flooding is a real possiblity inland over North Carolina and I suppose it may as well be treated as a weak tropical storm because its wind gusts and rainfall is akin to such a system.

[Paranoid]

This season seems to be a bit down on activity. If memory serves Bret formed on June 24th, so we're slightly behind on 2005's formation times. Still i'd expect it as this season is predicted to be less active.

[crimsone]

For some reason, I'm under the uninformed impression that the season is just building up at the moment - that the SST's are warm enough, but the shear levels have been too high in general, and while it's only a little inexperienced intuition that says it to me, I have a feeling that we're effectively seeing a metaphorical "loaded gun" scenario building, which will kick off a little later.

Then, I had the same feeling before the season started, and I was without a doubt wrong about that, so I guess we'll see.

Edited June 27, 2006 by crimsone

[kold weather]

Paranoid---Lets not forget that last season was mental and was way above the average, in fact way above even the norm for hyperactive seasons, it really was unique.

crimsone---Seas are certainly warm in some parts of the atlantic, the gulf of Mexico is once again loaded and if anything is warmer then last year asis some parts of the Caribbean sea so I wouldn't be that suprised to see a storm get upto cat-4/5 in those parts if a system gets into the area.

Anyway 93L is still the main wave that I'm watching right now, moving WNW/W presently and though there is no real center now (still some shear present over it and still moving to fast to allow the southern section to close off and become a depression) but stuill its got some decent convection.

Watch it in the Caribbean sea, models are shifting westwards like I suspected yesterday because the models thought it would form within 12hrs and remmeber the stronger the system, the further north is likely to track. So since the system is weaker at this point then expected its also tracked further westwards then the models thought.

[wolves78]

for anyone thats interested 94L-invest

[pottyprof]

looks good..

certainly some height to the cloud tops.. hope that theres no flooding as has happened over the last few years in that area..

[kold weather]

Very intresting to see 94L in a nearly indentical place as Bret last year. Convection has deid away a little as convection overland tones down overnight but there has over the last fe hours been a new burst quite near Mexico which needs close watching because its in a very favorable position for development as we saw last year with Bret and Gert.

There is some sort of mid-level circulation but it hasn't worked its way down to the surface yet however if this present convective burst continues to flare-up it'll have to be watched very closely indeed because the waters near wher eit is are pretty hot. Shear isn good over it but just to the north there does appear to be a jet streak which is shearing the northern section of the T-storms.

93L has slowed down a lot over the last 12hrs and it does look much better now then it did about 12-18hrs ago with a new decent convective flare-up. This one also does need watching over the next 3-4 days as it pushes westwards. The main problem for 93L is the large shear amounts that are to the west of the system with a strong jet streak present. It'd have a hard time even keeping its invest status in that sort of shear that is present, whivch is over 40kts. Shear is set to weaken a little but it'll stil lbe pretty harsh over the Caribbean for the next 24hrs.

However the system isn't going anywhere fast anyway. Still its got a chance if it can avoid the shear as it hasn't got a bad structure and its still got some decent convection.

So both systems will need to be watched, 94L over the next 24-36hrs and 93L over the next 7 days, who knows whether they will form, 94L probably has a larger chance of development then 93L because of the shear that lies in 93L path but its perfectly possible that nothnig wil lcome of either of them.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/A...umb/Latest.html

Kold weather, it seems that there is no longer an invest 93L.

As for invest 94L, the majority of convection is inland and the system is moving west rather than east, therefore, i feel that we will not see anything from 94L.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATEDWITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

Conversly, the NHC do mention invest 93L.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...tic/winds/shear

Having looked at the shear maps, if invest 93L can hold itself together for the next 48, then it will have around a 36 hour slot to reform before it makes it into the Carribean, once into the Carribean, the only danger is that dry air may be ingested, most likely from the eastern Carribean.

Edited June 30, 2006 by summer blizzard