Atlantic Tropical Waves

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA/

EASTERN COLOMBIA ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 10N. NO DEEP SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N12W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 4N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA FROM 6N TO 8N

BETWEEN 57W AND 59W...WHILE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE

WARMING AND PRECIPITATION IS DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THERE IN

INTERIOR GUYANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE

FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 53W AND

55W NORTH OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE

SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N

TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 44W

AND 46W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN

A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND

POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N EAST

OF 20W...AND SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 25W AND SOUTH AMERICA.

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN

COLOMBIA ALONG 68W/69W S OF 10N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. THIS

WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE

LAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE IF ANY WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT.

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEVERAL HUNDRED

MILES WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS

WAVE WILL LIKELY ENTER THE EPAC LATE TUE AND SOME MODELS SHOW

THE WAVE BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED BY THEN.

...THE ITCZ...

A CLUSTER OF WEAKENING MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAKING ITS WAY OFF

THE AFRICAN COAST E OF 16W S OF 10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND

ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS

BETWEEN 16W-21W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION

IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN 60 NM

EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED

MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA FROM

6N-9N BETWEEN 52W-59W.

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 71W S OF 11N

MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF

THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE IS

EVIDENT. ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N25W 4N52W. SCATTERED

MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 20W-36W.

CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S

OF 6N ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM 35W-46W AND S OF 8N TO INLAND OVER

SOUTH AMERICA FROM 49W-58W.

[crimsone]

A new tropical wave, a new atlantic hope. This one looks pretty good at the moment too!

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE SFC ANALYSIS ALONG 39W/40W S OF

14N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC

TURNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT

AND LOW-MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE VIS

DERIVED WINDS. THIS WAVE IS ASSISTING IN TRIGGERING NUMEROUS

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OF THE WAVE AXIS

WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 73W S OF 12N

MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF

THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS AS LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE

IS EVIDENT. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE EPAC TOMORROW

AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MAY

BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED BY THEN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N21W 4N33W 3N45W 2N51W. THE

ITCZ IS VERY ACTIVE TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS

WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 18W. SOME OF THE

STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN

36W-45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF

AFRICA E OF 10W FROM 2N-5N.

Edited May 30, 2006 by crimsone

[summer blizzard]

As the wave is rotating, i would say that the chances are good for a Tropical Depression if not a Tropical Storm.

[crimsone]

A lot of waves have cyclonic turning, but with the wind shift as well in this one, low/mid level vorticity, and the strength of it (given the range in which it is assisting convection), It looks to be fairly mighty. It's certainly at the right lattitude for it (currently approaching the carribean).

If the conditions allow and the wave doesn't weaken, we could well see TD1.

Edited May 30, 2006 by crimsone

[summer blizzard]

If i had any money, i would bet you £10 that the tropical depression forms on the 1st June, the official start of the season, personally, i have a gut feeling that we will see a Tropical Storm out of this one.

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.

WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N

BETWEEN 38W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG

75W/76W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED

UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE

WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND

OVER COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N28W 5N40W 3N52W. CLUSTERS

OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 8N TO THE

EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-38W AND FROM 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN

40W-53W.

Edited May 31, 2006 by crimsone

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL

DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG

76W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED

UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE

WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND

OVER COLOMBIA/W PANAMA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA E

OF 78W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N30W 6N42W 4N52W. CLUSTERS

OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 8N TO THE

EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-42W AND FROM 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN

42W-53W.

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE

WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME

CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS

ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 77W S OF

12N. WAVE PLACEMENT IS ONCE AGAIN BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE

MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE CURVATURE IS EVIDENT.

ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE EPAC LATER TODAY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N22W 5N35W 4N51W. THE ITCZ

REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS

WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. THE STRONGEST

CLUSTERS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W.

[wolves78]

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 2N IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY BUT

APPEARS TO BE STRETCHING THE ITCZ N ALONG 105W WITH CONVECTION

DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ PARAGRAPH BELOW.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 11N96W 7N140W. SCATTERED

MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N77W

6N93W 10N98W 7N109W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N131W 23N127W. A SECOND

SHORTWAVE LIES ALONG 32N105W 20N96W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS

NEAR 14N113 WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 10N140W. A RIDGE

ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST NEAR 11N97W. THE ASSOCIATED

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CRESTS ALONG POINTS 18N140W 24N123W 21N106W.

RESULTANT DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE

OF LINE 20N140W 27N123W 23N100W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ

CONVECTION W OF 85W IS ADVECTED ENE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH A PLUME

TURNING N OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 18N94W 30N91W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS AT 30N134W 1024 MB WITH RIDGE

SE TO 11N115W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS

OBSERVED N OF 16N W OF 122W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER S AMERICA AT 11S67W WITH A

RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO 7N78W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE

ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 80W WITH THE DEBRIS

MOISTURE STILL SPREADING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN

UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 80W TO NEAR PANAMA.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE

WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME

CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS

ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 77W S OF

12N. WAVE PLACEMENT IS ONCE AGAIN BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE

MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE CURVATURE IS EVIDENT.

ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE EPAC LATER TODAY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N22W 5N35W 4N51W. THE ITCZ

REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS

WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. THE STRONGEST

CLUSTERS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW

FORMING NEAR 27N86W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LIES JUST E OF THE

TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS

ADVECTED OUT OF THE EPAC STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN

88W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS

SWATH OF MOISTURE...MOST ORGANIZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE

A WEAK SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. MORE IMPRESSIVE

ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NEAR THE UPPER LOW N OF 26N W OF 95W.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF

THEM STRONG TO SEVERE...IN S TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS WIDESPREAD

ACROSS THE GULF E OF 88W KEEPING THIS AREA FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS

ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS AND

TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE W GULF TOMORROW AS THE UPPER

PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF

COAST ON FRI INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NE SECTOR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SOMEWHAT OF AN UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS CENTRAL

AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE EPAC

EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 87W. AN

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED BETWEEN 72W-87W. BROAD UPPER

RIDGING FROM A TROPICAL ATLC UPPER HIGH STRETCHES EWARD INTO THE

CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BETWEEN THE

TROUGH AND RIDGES. ONE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE

EPAC OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER

PLUME...MUCH WEAKER...EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA TO THE GREATER

ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT EXISTS. A CLUSTER OF

MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY

THE TROPICAL WAVE. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15 KT IN THE E AND

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUT WEAKER IN THE W CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS

WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THOSE MAGNITUDES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS

WEAK HIGH PRES STAYS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A RATHER BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W WITH AN

UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF

MEXICO COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS UPPER

LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING TWO SFC TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG

THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 31N79W TO 23N80W. WHILE THIS TROUGH

IS RATHER WEAK IT IS WELL DEFINED WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SMALL SCALE TSTMS. A STRONGER SFC TROUGH

IS LOCATED ALONG 32N59W 27N67W 21N71W. A SWATH OF MOISTURE IS

WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SFC LOWS ALONG

THE TROUGH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE

DISSIPATED. GFS STILL DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE

THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SLACKED OFF. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER

TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 22N FROM 18W-40W WITH THE

ASSOCIATED LOW WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA

OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH

LOCATED NEAR 30N40W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N51W GIVING THE

AREA SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE

COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N18W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG 8N/9N TO NEAR

50W SUPPLYING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE

ITCZ.

[crimsone]

Why the whole discussion? lol

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.

SLIGHT MID LEVEL ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED DEEP

CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS

PANAMA ALONG 80W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS

BASED UPON CONTINUITY DUE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE CLOSE

PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS S OF 10N TO

INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N30W 5N48W 7N60W. SCATTERED

CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S

OF 10N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 20W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE

ATLC.

Edited June 1, 2006 by crimsone

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE

IS BECOMING BETTERED DEFINED OVERNIGHT AND IS CLEARLY OBSERVED

ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED

MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN

33W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED

WAVE MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/

ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W

COVERING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA

FROM 56W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND INLAND

OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N32W 4N45W 5N56W. SCATTERED

MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF

SW AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 4W. SCATTERED MODERATE/

ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW COAST

OF AFRICA FROM 6W-12W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM

3N-9N BETWEEN 17W-33W AND S OF 3N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN

37W-43W.

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 22W/23W S OF 11N MOVING W ABOUT 15

KT. THIS WAVE IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE

VISIBLE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED

MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.

THIS WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION AND SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EVIDENT. WAVE

IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM

EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.

MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. DESPITE MUCH OF

THE WAVE BEING OVER LAND THE WAVE STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE

WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W REMAINS MAINLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION

AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N20W 5N30W 3N47W 3N51W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF

THE AXIS W OF 20W. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY

THE TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-27W AND

33W-39W.

[kold weather]

I've only just got back on, so I've not got much data at the moment BUT a few models are presently starting to point to a very intresting set-up over the next 5 days or so. The GFS seems to be very keen on this possible system now and here is the model run:

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=bahama_slp

Early days yet and while its getting close now to the time when the system gets stronger and starts to close off, with GFS having a TS by 54hrs. This certainly may not be that accurate but its got to be watched because at this time of year any gap of shear and a TW can give rise to tropical cyclone formation.

currently I'd rank the chances at 30%, solely on the atlantic set-up becoming condusive for TC development, though thats no certainty that anything will form.

[crimsone]

The GFS seems to start really developing the system in about 76 hours time One to keep an eye on for sure as you say, though for the moment, NHC states that the upper level winds are not favorable for a development in the carribean at this time.

Tropical waves currently (even if the 805 is due soon)...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15

KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL

SHOWS SOME SLIGHT CURVATURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TSTM

ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS SCATTERED AND EMBEDDED

WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.

SIMILARLY TO THE WAVE FARTHER EAST...THIS WAVE IS NOT AS WELL

DEFINED AS YESTERDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SURROUND THE

WAVE AXIS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WHILE

MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...IT STILL DOES

SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. A PATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N25W 4N35W 3N52W. SCATTERED

MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-9N

BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF 7W N OF 2N. THE

REMAINDER OF THE AXIS IS SURROUNDED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND

ISOLATED TSTMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL

WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS...MOST ORGANIZED W OF 45W.

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30/31W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO

15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE

ARE PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST

10 TO 15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS

WAVE ARE PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST

10 TO 15 KT. PRACTICALLY ALL THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH

AMERICA. NO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N13W 7N21W 6N29W 6N32W 5N46W 5N48W 5N53W. STRONG SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N57W 6N58W

5N59W IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUYANA. WARMING CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM GUYANA

AND VENEZUELA WESTWARD...AND IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO

NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF THE ITCZ

IN CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W...AND FROM 7N TO

10N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 39W

AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W. STRONG SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM 3N TO 4N

BETWEEN 9W AND 11W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N

BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

[crimsone]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHED ALONG TO 35W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20

KT. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ THOUGH ANY

SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL INCREASE IN CONVECTION

ESPECIALLY IN THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED TO 56W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT.

WAVE SEEMS TO BE MOVING MUCH FASTER WITH A SURGE IN TRADEWINDS

BEHIND IT. POSITIONING IS BASED ON A NORTHWARD BULGE OF THE

ITCZ AND GFS MODEL FIELDS. THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD

SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MON SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE

LAST WAVE THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI. SCATTERED

MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N W OF 52W OVER WATER WITH TSTMS

APPROACHING TRINIDAD.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT 10 TO

15 KT. WAVE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE HAVING MUCH INFLUENCE OVER WATER

THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW TSTMS WELL INLAND OVER COLOMBIA

ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N12W 5N17W 6N33W 4N45W 9N60W. SCATTERED

WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 7N BETWEEN 40W-52W. ISOLATED

MODERATE FROM 4N-7.5N BETWEEN 25W-32W AND N OF 2N BETWEEN

6W-13W.

[wolves78]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/041659.shtml?

[summer blizzard]

000

ABNT20 KNHC 052102

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT MON JUN 05 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD...NEARLY STATIONARY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED

OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH

EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR BERMUDA.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL

CYCLONE FORMATION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... LOCALLY HEAVY

RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN

CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH

TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[kold weather]

Some good convection presently near to Mexico on the Pacific side. There is some intrest from the WRF-NAM and CMC model which do want to form something in the SW of the Carribean sea from the mass of convection currently in the Pacific and they atre forecasting it to move across Mexico into the region and form into a closed low and eventually they do make it quite strong.

HOWEVER, the other models are aginst this and while intresting these two models aren't the best at this kind of tropical cyclone formation and is often over-bullish. So on its own I don't think anything will form from this, but what the models may be seeing is condtions are improving and we are getting clsoe to the time when TC can form readily.

[summer blizzard]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000

ABNT20 KNHC 071511

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1130 AM EDT WED JUN 07 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[AmericanIceman]

Hmm, One model seems to want something to form in the Carrib. sea and then sends it into the Florida panhandle and on up into Georgia.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

I'm not really up on how these models and stuff work, but what's the chance of that being correct? I live in southwestern Georgia, so this could prove interesting.

[AmericanIceman]

Welp, just checked out the GFDL model and it seems to forecast something developing in the Pacific and crosses Mexico, holding together and reforming over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This could get interesting!

[kold weather]

An extremely intresting possiblty is starting to set itslef up. There are two main areas that need watching, one thats presently over the SW Caribbean and the other one is on the Pacific side of Mexico. Both aren't that strong at the moment but both need to be weatched extremely closely.

The problems come with the models still disagreeing abouty exactly what to do with these system. The NAM-WRF model has been forecasting for some time for the blob of convection in the SW caribbean to develop into a closed low and become a strong Tropical storm that eventually heads north-wards.

That was well and good but for the last 2 runs GFDL have been forming something from 93E presently in the Pacific. Here's where the very intresting thing happens and as AmericanIceman stated the GFDL and to a lesser degree forecast 93E to get stronger on the Pacific side then do a very rare thing, try and cross over Mexico and then make it out and get stronger on the atlantic side. As it happesn GFDL turns this 93E into a hurricane on both sides of the Atlantic. Problem with this is its ulra rare occurance and would require the ssytem holding itslef up very well indeed.

Still the whole set-up has a whie to go yet but I don't think that both will form because one or the other, depends on whether either can get organised will shear the other one to death. I'm not quite sure what option is the most likely presently, the NAM-WRF comob has been forecasting a tropical system in the SW caribbean for a while, but the GFDL is probably the most accurate model for tropical systems and it suggests that invest 93E will develop and shear the other blob to death. The other option is that neither develop which is certainly also a fair possiblty. Oh the options!!!

For now I think I'll favor the 93E system, since it seems a little more developed then the other convective system and does have some decent circulation already as well as slightly better outflow thanks to better ventilation ironically thanks to the jet stream. Currently I think a 40% chance of something forming over the next 120hrs but I may raise this over the next few days if the models can unifromally agree about what will happen.