June CET

[Scorcher]

It looks to me like the CET will not drop from here- the only way is up as far as the next week is concerned, with minima looking quite high and temperatures possibly into the high 20s in the south.

[kold weather]

The one thing that will stop any further rise in the synoptic pattern ahead will be night time mins. Despite what Scorcher said any HP set-up like the one at 144hrs, even at this time of year, will still give fairly below average mins:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png

16C should still be pretty certain from now on I think though those mins could be a problem and with the set-up shown by 144hrs I should think that we could also brech 283hrs still.

Could be onre of the driest and sunniest June's ever!!!

[reef]

It looks to me like the CET will not drop from here- the only way is up as far as the next week is concerned, with minima looking quite high and temperatures possibly into the high 20s in the south.

Not so sure about that. Bear in mind the CET zone uses figures not just from the south-east of England. For the average to stay at the current value of 16.1°C then each day must be on average 21°C by day and 11°C by night in all 3 locations (London, Bristol, Lancaster). With temperatures only reaching above 22°C in the last two days of the month and minima not quite making that value, it may slip a little.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png

It will no doubt be well above average, but I dont think we'll quite reach the 2003 value. My guess now would be a figure close to 15.8°C.

[reef]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end:

West Is Best: 15.1C 10.7

Supercell: 15.1C 10.7

Kold Weather: 15.2C 11.2

Superted: 15.2C 11.2

Rollo: 15.3C 11.7

Snow-Man 2006: 15.3C 11.7

Chris L: 15.4C 12.2

AtlanticFlamethrower: 15.4C 12.2

Icy toes: 15.5C 12.7

PersianPaladin: 15.6C 13.2

Suffolk Weather: 15.7C 13.7

Scorcher: 15.8C 14.2

Gtuk: 15.9C 14.7

Anti-Mild: 15.9C 14.7

Dawlish: 16C 15.2

Derby4life: 16.4C 17.2

Stricklands: 17C 20.2

Michael Prys-Roberts: 17.5C 22.7

I think our resident bookie is going to win this one :lol:

[West is Best]

I think our resident bookie is going to win this one :lol:

I don't. He will be closer than most, but I think it will finish above 16C now Reef.

Currently 16.2 on Manley (http://www.climate-uk.com/), and likely to finish in the 16.2 to 16.6 range. Derby4Life will win it, though it may even finish between him and Stricklands.

With temperatures only reaching above 22°C in the last two days of the month

And the reason I think you're wrong is that you're under-estimating maxima by quite some margin.

Edited June 25, 2006 by West is Best

[Thundery wintry showers]

I recall from earlier in the month that the GFS tends to underestimate maxima in sunshine. Thus, if it says maxima of 22C across most of England and Wales, the actual maxima will probably be around 23-25C in many places.

[J10]

I recall from earlier in the month that the GFS tends to underestimate maxima in sunshine. Thus, if it says maxima of 22C across most of England and Wales, the actual maxima will probably be around 23-25C in many places.

Totally agree with GFS underestimating mamimum temps.

[Scorcher]

Not so sure about that. Bear in mind the CET zone uses figures not just from the south-east of England. For the average to stay at the current value of 16.1°C then each day must be on average 21°C by day and 11°C by night in all 3 locations (London, Bristol, Lancaster). With temperatures only reaching above 22°C in the last two days of the month and minima not quite making that value, it may slip a little.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png

It will no doubt be well above average, but I dont think we'll quite reach the 2003 value. My guess now would be a figure close to 15.8°C.

I think it's pretty obvious that the CET will be at least what it is now. 16.1°C is one of the lower values that has been given- it's still at 16.4°C on Metcheck.com. We saw 23°C in quite a few places today and 26°C yesterday. The minima have also been easily over 11°C, with an average of around 14°C over the past couple of nights. If we have an average across the locations that is lower than 21°C and 11°C for maxima and minima respectively I will be extremely surprised- we might even get a couple of days that average somewhere in the mid 20s.

[West is Best]

Manley CET still on 16.2. Even with today's rain in the south I can't see it going below 16.1C by the end of the week - should rise a notch or two if anything from here.

I'm afraid I fear I'll be buying Paul a lot of beer. The sunshine record doesn't look like falling to me now http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0606.htm

Of the 4 possibles that I posted up, the hottest June for 30 years it the one that looks likely to come true, and Paul didn't offer me any odds for that. As Russell (BB) would say: 'the swine'!

[summer blizzard]

West Is Best, i think that we may just break the sunshine record, by the end of today, we will of passed 230 hours which leaves five full days in which to get just over 50 hours of sunshine, i think this is entirely possible because we may even get ten hours of sunshine tommorow and tommorow will be the cloudiest day.

[Weather-history]

West Is Best, i think that we may just break the sunshine record, by the end of today, we will of passed 230 hours which leaves five full days in which to get just over 50 hours of sunshine, i think this is entirely possible because we may even get ten hours of sunshine tommorow and tommorow will be the cloudiest day.

It will be 4 full days SB. Its the 26th today and there are only 30 days in June

Sunshine levels have really tailed off in Northern England since the 13th of June.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In NE England, according to Climate-uk, sunshine is down to 121% of average. Unless it picks up, it could well be that this region only has its sunniest June since 2003 (indeed it might even fall behind last year's in places!) which is particularly remarkable given how sunny the first 12 days were.

Down south, local records could still be threatened with excesses of around 50%.

Temperature wise it is still likely to be remarkable away from northern Scotland. The first half was exceptionally warm due to high maxima; the 2nd half has continued about as warm, mainly due to high overnight minima. That's what happens when you get unsettled Atlantic weather with winds coming in from a south-westerly point: it's winds from a north-westerly quarter that tend to be cool at this time of year.

The warmest June since 1976? Quite possibly.

[Dawlish]

The warmest June since 1976? Quite possibly.

I agree TWS. That's why I wouldn't offer West any odds on it! I do think that odds and statistics are a great way of figuring the likelihood of weather events happening, or not. Offering the odds certainly deepens my understanding..........

...........and gives us some fun! I'll bet you're tempted by the 4/5's on the other thread!

*>))

Paul

[Weather-history]

One peculiar thing is that since and including March, the first half of each month has been sunnier than the second half. It looks as though it is going to happen again with June.

It sort goes against the logic if you see what I mean as these months are where the length of the day increases as we approach the summer solstice, so you expect the second half of the month to have more sunshine hours per day on average than the first half of the month purely because the days are lengthening.

[West is Best]

One peculiar thing is that since and including March, the first half of each month has been sunnier than the second half. It looks as though it is going to happen again with June.

It sort goes against the logic if you see what I mean as these months are where the length of the day increases as we approach the summer solstice, so you expect the second half of the month to have more sunshine hours per day on average than the first half of the month purely because the days are lengthening.

And often warmer in the first half than second half I think Kevin? Which is also a bit weird!

[Methuselah]

And often warmer in the first half than second half I think Kevin? Which is also a bit weird!

Ah??? A white Christmas, then?

[PersianPaladin]

I've only really felt a couple of days this year of what i would qualify as 'heat'.

Bring me some more of that lovely dry heat we had earlier this month; I can't stand that humid stuff.

[West is Best]

The Manley CET is on 16.1C http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0606.htm

With 3 warm and hot days ahead it should finish above that figure to become the warmest June for 30 years. 'Should' being the operative word!

Edited June 28, 2006 by West is Best

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Richard.

I'm surprised how much lower the Manley CET is compared to Net-Wx (although, there is obviously different data). Net Wx is currently sitting on 16.6x for June.

Amazing that we had some 'good' below average months in Winter, and this month has been fantastic in terms of temps.

[The PIT]

The Manley CET is on 16.1C http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0606.htm

With 3 warm and hot days ahead it should finish above that figure to become the warmest June for 30 years. 'Should' be the operative word!

We'll send the gloomy and cool weather from Sheffield to the CET area that'll knock it down. :lol:

Err three warm days and three hot days takes us into July. So three warm days won't make much differance. CET won't alter much anyway now unless you also get some very warm nights as well.

[West is Best]

Err three warm days and three hot days takes us into July.

The CET figure is up to and including yesterday, leaving

28th

29th

30th

= 3 days

Hi Richard.

I'm surprised how much lower the Manley CET is compared to Net-Wx

Morning Chris. Yes, very true. I think the NW maxes were higher earlier on in the month because it has been about 0.5C above for ages.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Morning Chris. Yes, very true. I think the NW maxes were higher earlier on in the month because it has been about 0.5C above for ages.

True....either way, a proper above average month for the CET.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET is still 16.1C, which is 2C above average, the CET may rise slightly.

[West is Best]

According to Phillip Eden, the CET is still 16.1C, which is 2C above average, the CET may rise slightly.

It hasn't come out yet - that's yesterday's figure SB.

[West is Best]

It hasn't come out yet - that's yesterday's figure SB.

Manley now on 16.2C - so that's up to yesterday with 2 full days to go http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0606.htm

Manley will probably nudge another notch up by close of play tomorrow, but then it will be just a waiting game to see if Hadley is identical to Manley. Philip usually posts up the likely data for it. Remember that 16.1C is the figure to beat for the hottest June for 30 years - since 1976.

Edited June 29, 2006 by West is Best