June CET

[kold weather]

Right just a quick update on the CEt situation.

Net-weather CET presently rapidly climbing, now upto 14.83C which is a large rise from yesterday. This large climb should contniue until atleast next Tuesday and we will probably easily top 16C

Also worth pointing out that Philip Eden's CET is out presently, at 13.9C, 0.7C above average, should be upto 14.3 by the time that todays estimates are done.

[West is Best]

Right just a quick update on the CEt situation.

Net-weather CET presently rapidly climbing, now upto 14.83C which is a large rise from yesterday. This large climb should contniue until atleast next Tuesday and we will probably easily top 16C

Also worth pointing out that Philip Eden's CET is out presently, at 13.9C, 0.7C above average, should be upto 14.3 by the time that todays estimates are done.

The last time I started predicting something high a week into a month we had a massive cool-down! But at this stage we're certainly seeing a nicely warming month. Philip's Manley CET is now on 14.4C http://www.climate-uk.com/ and that's going to rise steeply over the next 3 or 4 days. I'm sure Kevin will be particularly noting the sunshine levels: 181% of the norm and it's been the sunniest first week of June since 1996, and the sunniest week of any week since 9-15 July 2003. There's a significant 10-day figure in there too on its way: http://www.climate-uk.com/. So a remarkable start to June.

[Weather-history]

. I'm sure Kevin will be particularly noting the sunshine levels: 181% of the norm and it's been the sunniest first week of June since 1996, and the sunniest week of any week since 9-15 July 2003.

Yes I've noted them and it has been the story of the last 3 months, (March, April, May), they've all started as very sunny but in the end ended fairly unremarkable.

The sunniest June in the areal series is June 1957 with 284.6hrs, incidentially summer 1957 started promising with a good June and this culminated in heatwave at the end of the month, the highest June maximum ever recorded with 35.6C on the 29th but it went downhill after that with a dull July and August.

[kold weather]

Yes West the CET will rise steeply during the next few days and probably won't stop rising till at leas the end of next week when that questionnable breakdown will occur, as I said yesterday can see us being around the 16C mark by that time.

Also Net-weather CET shooting through the roof, now upto 15C exactly, 1.7C above the average at the time of year!

[summer blizzard]

Ithink that all aspects of the weather will have significant ten day anomolies, because the CET could be over 15C by the 10th June, making this one of the warmest starts to June on record, the rainfall is almost non-existant and could rank as one of the driest starts to June on record and by the 8th June, we already have around 40% of the monthly average sunshine which should rise to over 50% by the 10th June, not to mention a very hot beggining to June in Ireland.

[kold weather]

The CEt won't be far away from 15C tommorow, I worked it out at 14.85C today based on temps from the weatheronline website. It's quite amazing just how warm the month is already becoming. with the constant warmth present looks like we are going to see a very high 1st-15th figure, probably breaking past 16C.

Net-weather CET is already upto 15.31C so a fair chance that by the end of this warm spell/heatwave we may well see that CEt reading break 17C and get higher then the 1976 june Cet for a while until the more average synoptics kick in for a while.

Just out of curiousity, does anyone know the warmest ever 15 days of June, this may well rank in the top 10 nd would have been contender for No.1 spot had the nights been warmer at the start of the month.

[Methuselah]

The CEt won't be far away from 15C tommorow, I worked it out at 14.85C today based on temps from the weatheronline website. It's quite amazing just how warm the month is already becoming. with the constant warmth present looks like we are going to see a very high 1st-15th figure, probably breaking past 16C.

Net-weather CET is already upto 15.31C so a fair chance that by the end of this warm spell/heatwave we may well see that CEt reading break 17C and get higher then the 1976 june Cet for a while until the more average synoptics kick in for a while.

Just out of curiousity, does anyone know the warmest ever 15 days of June, this may well rank in the top 10 nd would have been contender for No.1 spot had the nights been warmer at the start of the month.

If I remember correctly, Kold, the hot spell of '76 didn't really start until the 22nd??

[kold weather]

The real hotspell didn't really get going till about the 22nd looking at the charts but looking at the 850hpa charts it hardly looks like the month had a cold start either and I'd guess upto the 20th the Cet probably would have still been quite abit above average. Still the last days of June 1976 do appear to be very hot even by our present modern day standards:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219760629.gif

I'm going to calculate the 12z GFS CET upto the 20th later on tonight, I should think it'll be very much on the high side!

[HighPressure]

14.9C for me 0.8C above average due to a warm start followed by average mid month temps then back to above for the end of the Month.

I am feeling pretty smug with this prediction for June

[West is Best]

I am feeling pretty smug with this prediction for June

Well I don't want to tempt fate but at the rate this is going it will be well above 14.9C ...

[Dawlish]

Well I don't want to tempt fate but at the rate this is going it will be well above 14.9C ...

If that 00z run is repeated and this higher pressure holds, my 16C would probably be exceeded, never mind 14.9C!

Philip Eden has the CET at 15.3C (+1.9C) and June, on average, will be about 1C warmer at the end of the month, than now. That CET will rise, quite sharply, with a diurnal range of 13-29 (ish), maybe a 21C average daily average over each of the next 4 days. Combine this with warm days and mild, muggy nights, which that 00z run implies and you have a CET well above the 95% mark (in the top 5, or so since records began). Really an extremely interesting run.

Personally, my confidence in this happening is low, but give it a couple more runs with the block holding and my confidence in an exceptionally warm June would rise.

Paul

[kold weather]

It's gonig to be intresting to see the Net-0weather CEt break the 17C mark, I suspect its got a fair chance of doing so next Monday providing it keeps rising, presently upto:

15.93°C

I tend to think the secind half of June will be very much akin to May in terms of temperatures, probably average daytime maxes but above average mins will counter-act this.

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 15.8C, which is 1.7C above the monthly average of 14.1C.

[West is Best]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 15.8C, which is 1.7C above the monthly average of 14.1C.

Hi SB - though Philip puts it as 2.4C above average because of the adjustment for the normally cooler beginning than end of the month. So it's really 2.4C above average at this stage www.climate-uk.com

It's gonig to be intresting to see the Net-0weather CEt break the 17C mark, I suspect its got a fair chance of doing so next Monday providing it keeps rising, presently upto:

15.93°C

It's going fairly beserk at the moment: 16.64C and rising fast.

[Weather-history]

The driest June on record was back in 1925 with 4.3mm

The sunniest June in the Areal series is June 1957 with 284.6hrs of sunshine. That had an intense heatwave at the end of the month with 35.6C recorded, the highest maximum ever recorded in June

The warmest June on record was 1846 with 18.2, the second warmest June on record was 1676 with 18.0

Interestingly years ending in "6" tend to favour warm Junes.

4 of the the 5 warmest Junes on record occurred in years ending in "6"

1846, 1676, 1826, 1976.

Years with above average Junes ending in "6"

1996, 1986, 1976, 1966, 1936, 1906, 1896, 1876, 1866, 1846, 1836, 1826, 1806, 1786, 1746, 1736, 1726, 1706, 1686, 1676, 1666

The CET should start to level off this coming week from Tuesday onwards.

[West is Best]

The sunniest June in the Areal series is June 1957 with 284.6hrs of sunshine.

I like the stats about June's ending in 6 lol.

That sunshine record is interesting. The first third of this month has 121 hours of sunshine - so 2/3rds of the month left in which to record another 160 hours and break the all-time record. Trouble is, when I started posting something like this in May it all went pear-shaped, so I'd best avoid it. Afterall, these things have a habit of ironing themselves out. Even so, interesting to see Philip use the phrase 'outstandingly sunny' of the first 10 days ...

[Thundersquall]

What is the record June CET?

At the moment it's 16.81C, which is quite high.

[kold weather]

I thnink as Mr.Data said 18.2C which is quite amazing. Anyway Net-weather CET is quite amazing and is nearly as high as the Jube 1976 CEt of 17C, which is quite amazing really. Philip Eden's CET will probably be slightly lower but it'll stil be about 16.5C

I can really this month ending up as one of the top 5 warmest June's ever and if the 12z is right it'll top June 1976 as well!!!

[Methuselah]

In 1976, the real heat didn't kick-in until the 22nd...I wonder what this year's June CET will be, come the 22nd...And assuming that the GFS 12Z comes off - which it won't!?

Edited June 11, 2006 by Pete Tattum

[West is Best]

Certainly got a good chance now of a pretty warm June. There's no cool down this week, though it may steady for a few days (or maybe not). The minimum 2 nights ago nearly exceeded the average maximum temperature http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0606.htm I suspect that last night might have just touched that max figure! Philip has Manley on 16.3C and net-weather is nearly at 17C now. A lot will depend on next week's synoptics, and I don't want to put the mochas on it, but we're looking at the moment at the potential for something fairly exceptional.

Edited June 12, 2006 by West is Best

[kold weather]

Yep i'll agree with that West, I don't often say this like this but we really are seeing some something exceptional. IF the 0z run came off I'd guess we'd be looking at something close to 16.5-17C, amazingly warm for June.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Exceptional...No

Remarkable...Yes :huh:

Its certainly looking good for something to remember in coming years. After quite a cool start to the year, the heat is certainly making a come back (perhaps a reminder that GW does perhaps exist).

[fine wine]

Its is now 16.98, I wonder what it will rise to?

[Scorcher]

Exceptional...No

Remarkable...Yes

Its certainly looking good for something to remember in coming years. After quite a cool start to the year, the heat is certainly making a come back (perhaps a reminder that GW does perhaps exist).

If that's the case, then what exactly does 'exceptional' entail? A CET of 19C? It looks like it could pass 17C today, which is certainly exceptional in my book. A minimum of 21C last night in London seems quite exceptional to me, and some places had reached 29C before midday.

[Optimus Prime]

Remember what we were saying about March? The month had only one week until ending and the CET was around 2.9c. But some much warmer weather came about from the 24th. Warm spell from the 24th-31st was enough to rise the CET by 2c when we were looking at one of the coldest Marche's ever.

All it would take is a cool spell to end June and the CET could quite easily drop by 1.5c-2.0c during the remaining 7 days.

Don't be too complaisant yet.

Edited June 12, 2006 by Optimus Prime