June CET

[derrylynne]

Interesting one this one isn't it. Although I tend to think after all this cool weather we have had that summer will be a wash out I also tend to remember Spring 1976 that was no great shakes either. Often wet and cool. In fact many areas had snow on June 1st that year. Then we had the best summer we have ever had. Could there be a repeat?

[Anti-Mild]

I'm going to plump for 15.9 and, hopefully, dryand sunny with it !

[Guest Mike W]

Having a summer like 1976 would hardly be a shock to sytem would, especially after the 2003 event, now a summer like 1988 or 1993 or even more so a kind of summer from 1977-81 summers, that would be a surprise and indeed a shock to the system. Consider the fact that the last average to below summer was 1998.

[Terminal Moraine]

Realistically I'll try 13.8c.

Of course, if I was hopecasting it would be 9.8c

T.M

[Dawlish]

I'll put one in that is not a guess, but is an actual forecast!

A 70% chance of this June's CET being warmer than the Manley June average, a 10% chance of it being within 0.25C of the average and a 20% chance of it being colder.

Mr. Data; thanks for the figures. You are a star.

[stormchaser1]

Here is my guess for the CET AND FORECAST for June

Im going for a 15c CET ANNUAL

AND FOR THE NORTH EAST IM GOING FOR AN AVERAGE OF 12.5C

MY Predicted forecast is as follows .The first couple of weeks will see plenty of rain and below normal temps and maybe the odd rumble of thunder and the last couple of weeks will see near normal temps for June, and quite pleasant weather

nigel

[summer blizzard]

My CET prediction for June is 14.6C, which is 0.5C above average.

I believe that there will be a warm first third to June cancelled out by a cooler spell in the middle of the month before the weather turns unsettled around the end of the month with the warm minima knocking the CET up.

[WhiteFox]

Interesting one this one isn't it. Although I tend to think after all this cool weather we have had that summer will be a wash out I also tend to remember Spring 1976 that was no great shakes either. Often wet and cool. In fact many areas had snow on June 1st that year. Then we had the best summer we have ever had. Could there be a repeat?

Surely you're confusing the June snowfall with 1975? June 1st 1976 was much too warm to have any snowfall with 850 temperatures above freezing everywhere:

Summer 1976 followed on from a significant period of drought. Although we are also in a drought situation, I don't think it's as bad as 1975-6:

I'm not sure of the exact figures but the BBC reports that the rainfall for the period October 1975 to August 1976 was 235mm.

Using Philip Eden's site with Hampstead as a guide, rainfall was 339mm from October until the end of April. This obviously does not take into account the May totals.

As with always looking for winter 1963 we always seem to be looking for Summer 1976! I guess a repeat of summer 1976 is more likely than a repeat of Winter 1963, but the odds are still long I think!

[Sunshine]

I will go for a cool June with many places failing to reach 25ºC during the month, CET 13.3.

[conor123]

My Thoughts

14.6c (0.5 Above Average)

Rainfall: 88% (Below Average)

Sunshine: 130% (Above Average)

[SNOW-MAN2006]

My predicted C.E.T for June is 15.3

SNOW-MAN2006

[Suffolk Weather]

15.7C I predict

Edited May 29, 2006 by Suffolk Weather

[West is Best]

Can't decide between 15.1 and 15.2 so I'll play safe and go for 15.1C. Above average, but not excessively so.

I think it will be a mostly gorgeous month - and will feel lovely in the sun especially the first and last weeks, but some cold nightime minima early on and a brief unsettled spell in mid-month may peg the overall temp back a bit.

[shuggee]

Hmmmmmm...

14.1ºC for me - bang on average.

[kold weather]

Well there already seems to be strong signs that the first ten days will see the CET above average. We seem to start with a warm set-up and to be hopnest I can see us keeping the warmer set-up till at least mid-month with maybe only breif 1-2NW intrusions and the story of June may well be very similar to this one, warm and settled start but cooler second half. If we don't see a cooler second half to the month then we will see a very above average month I reckon.

[summer blizzard]

Summer of 95: 12C

Sunshine: 13.3C

Snowmaiden: 13.8C

Drfeelgood: 13.8C

Terminal Moraine: 13.8C

Dave J: 14C

Beng: 14C

Shuggee: 14.1C

Optimus Prime: 14.2C

Blast From The Past: 14.4C

Bottesford: 14.5C

The PIT: 14.5C

Summer Blizzard: 14.6C

Conor123: 14.6C

Nick F: 14.7C

Jackone: 14.7C

Great Plum: 14.9C

button-wales: 15C

Stephen Prudence: 15C

Stormchaser1: 15C

West Is Best: 15.1C

Kold Weather: 15.2C

Superted: 15.2C

Rollo: 15.3C

Snow-Man 2006: 15.3C

Chris L: 15.4C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 15.4C

Suffolk Weather: 15.7C

Scorcher: 15.8C

Gtuk: 15.9C

Anti-Mild: 15.9C

Stricklands: 17C

[BARRY]

Summer of 95: 12C

Sunshine: 13.3C

Snowmaiden: 13.8C

Drfeelgood: 13.8C

Terminal Moraine: 13.8C

Dave J: 14C

Beng: 14C

Shuggee: 14.1C

Optimus Prime: 14.2C

Blast From The Past: 14.4C

Bottesford: 14.5C

The PIT: 14.5C

Summer Blizzard: 14.6C

Conor123: 14.6C

Nick F: 14.7C

Jackone: 14.7C

Great Plum: 14.9C

button-wales: 15C

Stephen Prudence: 15C

Stormchaser1: 15C

West Is Best: 15.1C

Kold Weather: 15.2C

Superted: 15.2C

Rollo: 15.3C

Snow-Man 2006: 15.3C

Chris L: 15.4C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 15.4C

Suffolk Weather: 15.7C

Scorcher: 15.8C

Gtuk: 15.9C

Anti-Mild: 15.9C

Stricklands: 17C

below average 13.1

[Guest Mike W]

I don't see the point in predicting a below average summer month TBH, can't see it happening.

[HighPressure]

14.9C for me 0.8C above average due to a warm start followed by average mid month temps then back to above for the end of the Month.

[PersianPaladin]

15.6C

Edited May 29, 2006 by PersianPaladin

[summer blizzard]

Summer of 95: 12C

Barry: 13.1C

Sunshine: 13.3C

Snowmaiden: 13.8C

Drfeelgood: 13.8C

Terminal Moraine: 13.8C

Snowprincess: 13.9C

Dave J: 14C

Beng: 14C

Shuggee: 14.1C

Optimus Prime: 14.2C

Blast From The Past: 14.4C

Bottesford: 14.5C

The PIT: 14.5C

Summer Blizzard: 14.6C

Conor123: 14.6C

Nick F: 14.7C

Jackone: 14.7C

Great Plum: 14.9C

High pressure: 14.9C

button-wales: 15C

Stephen Prudence: 15C

Stormchaser1: 15C

West Is Best: 15.1C

Kold Weather: 15.2C

Superted: 15.2C

Rollo: 15.3C

Snow-Man 2006: 15.3C

Chris L: 15.4C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 15.4C

PersianPaladin: 15.6C

Suffolk Weather: 15.7C

Scorcher: 15.8C

Gtuk: 15.9C

Anti-Mild: 15.9C

Stricklands: 17C

[Glacier Point]

June, the most likely summer month for a +ve AO, but with the SSTA presenting a highly amplified pattern, a slightly cooler month for me, but only just....

14 C please.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I don't see the point in predicting a below average summer month TBH, can't see it happening.

Mike...this isnt a serious thread. Its a thread for people to express the CET they think will happen. Perhaps you could hazard a guess yourself?

[Dawlish]

I'll put one in that is not a guess, but is an actual forecast!

A 70% chance of this June's CET being warmer than the Manley June average, a 10% chance of it being within 0.25C of the average and a 20% chance of it being colder.

Mr. Data; thanks for the figures. You are a star.

OK I can do guesses too!

Based on several things: today's chances of the first half of June having pressure higher than average and clear, coolish nights tending to be the order of the day (or night!) for the first two weeks, as the wind flow will be mainly Westerly, not SW; a greater than random chance of an Azores high for the second half of the month, as the low to the North of us looks flabby and inconsequential, possibly allowing pressure to rise from the SW; and the fact that the odds are very much in favour of the world's June temperatures being in the top 10 (yet again) and GW is continuing, leads me to think warmer than average.

I'll join in the guessing game and go for a warm June, but not a record-breaking one - a June CET of 16.0C.

Paul

Edited May 31, 2006 by Dawlish

[summer blizzard]

Summer of 95: 12C

Summer Blizard: 12.6C

Barry: 13.1C

Sunshine: 13.3C

_Mark_: 13.7C

Snowmaiden: 13.8C

Drfeelgood: 13.8C

Terminal Moraine: 13.8C

Snowprincess: 13.9C

Dave J: 14C

Beng: 14C

Glacier Point: 14C

Shuggee: 14.1C

Optimus Prime: 14.2C

Blast From The Past: 14.4C

Bottesford: 14.5C

The PIT: 14.5C

Conor123: 14.6C

Nick F: 14.7C

Jackone: 14.7C

Great Plum: 14.9C

High pressure: 14.9C

button-wales: 15C

Stephen Prudence: 15C

Stormchaser1: 15C

West Is Best: 15.1C

Kold Weather: 15.2C

Superted: 15.2C

Rollo: 15.3C

Snow-Man 2006: 15.3C

Chris L: 15.4C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 15.4C

PersianPaladin: 15.6C

Suffolk Weather: 15.7C

Scorcher: 15.8C

Gtuk: 15.9C

Anti-Mild: 15.9C

Dawlish: 16C

Stricklands: 17C

I have added the other CET predictions in and changed my prediction to match my teleconnection forecast.