2006 Atlantic Season So Far

[crimsone]

I thought it might be an idea to have a thread here - not nessecarily for season forecasts etc, but also for general seasonal banter. The number of posts will tell me if it was in fact a bad idea. lol (that this forum a banter thread, a waves and potential thread, and a thread for each active TC - how very organised )

To start off, I would just like to note that so far this year, we have had 5 Tropical depressions, and each one of them has become a tropical storm. Personally, I feel that that tells me something, but I'm not entirely sure what. Of those 5 TS's, at least one of them has spectuacularly and quite unexpectedly fallen apart completely (TS Chris). Debby (the seasons only long track storm so far), which is currently a TD again came nowhere near to fulfilling her potential in spite of what was an awesome start as a tropical wave that may even ave been a TD before it left Africa!

In the mean time, the SST's keep getting warmer and warmenr - they were pretty warm before the season started. It seems that the beginning of the season this year has been stunted by a combination of a suprisingly constant amount of significant shear, and a somewhat unfortunate (to those watching that is) synoptic setup that seems to come into play whenever something forms to tear it apart or simply dumb it down. In my view, Either the US government has finally found a way of subduing TC's, or in spite of it's suprisingly average looking start, this has been a season with bad luck in store for any would-be hurricane.

We may be seeing the very first hurricane of the season forming now in Ernesto, and it may turn out to be a biggy, but I'm wondering if perhaps this season should have been a bit more active in ACE terms than it has been. By contrast, perhaps the "loaded gun" of stored ocean heat is about to finally fire?

FInally (The FI was intentional), let's all hope, as I can't seem to help saying, That New Orleans gets left alone for this season. They could do without it methinks.

Sooo, not wanting to make the thread too specific, penny for your thoughts (paypal only ) and banter away...

Edited August 26, 2006 by crimsone

[Calrissian]

In my view, Either the US government has finally found a way of subduing TC's, or in spite of it's suprisingly average looking start, this has been a season with bad luck in store for any would-be hurricane.

The US govt - like most govts, is entirely incompetent. They can't organise jack, never mind defy the basic laws of physics in determining how/where such storms develop/progress.

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As for the season being a quiet one, not really, its just quiet compared to relative times. Ernesto is the wake up call for everyone this year.

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Calrissian: Biscuits on standby

[Gray-Wolf]

K.w. will be on me like a tonne of bricks but I feel it's been a slow (and a tad dissapointing) start to the season. I can do without images of dogs eating copses but I do like the images that convey the scale and power of a Huricane (when viewed from the safety of my P.C.).

As far as the U.S. is concerned I think the world must be shown that the U.S. version of 'capitalism' is as flawed a system as the old communist block version of state socialism. Sadly it will be the people who need societies help the most that will be caused the greatest hurt if another big 'cane were to hit the southern U.S. states this year . Surely wold exposure of their failure to cope would start to show the normal U.S. citizen that the state is a necessary part of society, especially in emergencies, and as such is deserving of tax dollars (instead of the 'feel good factor' of the mor fortunate putting dollars into tins in some office collection).

Sorry about that......went off on one. Ernesto looks like he could be trouble. I suppose you only need one bad storm to mark out a season, especially if it hits last years badly hit areas before the repairs/improvements are up to it.

[SnowBear]

Looking on the other side of the coin, if you were in the US govt., what would be the "best" outcome of a major Cat 4-5 making landfall on the north Gulf Coast, (hard as it may sound and I for one love New Orleans, the home of blues and jazz, the colour, etc), but I reckon they would actually plummet for it to hit New Orleans, why? With so much of it laid waste by Katrina, and so much needing to be rebuilt, ruined infrastructure, economically they would far sooner NO was hit again than have another major city hit like Mobile AL, Lafayette LA, Houston TX, Tampa FL etc?

[kold weather]

Very intresting thoughts. I'm not gonig to come down on you like a tonne of bricks G.W and i do know how you feel ,esp so soon after the hyperactive 05 season but we are actually slightly above average in terms of named storms.

As for ACE crimsone, I'm not sure actually whether we are above or below, my feeling is that presently we are below but that this week coming up wil lgo some way to help out.

The sort of set-up we have seen isn't really that uncommon though. One only has to look back at 2002 to see that actually we xcan go right upto September with several tropical storms yet no hurricanes. It can happen. What has been key so far is the slight El nino type set-up we've had in the Pacific which has meant that the Upper level lows were a touch slow in getting away to our north and have constantly been in place to shear the living hell out of any storm that comes close. now finally we have seen that retreat and things have beocme far more favorable for development. T oa certain degree we've been unlucky however I think thats about to change. In those seasons that ended up above average but had a slow start the first hurricane was usually by late august ---Early September. such seasons as 2002,2001 and also 1998, which was 7th out of 50 in terms of ACE.

For what its worth i think there will probably be 4-6 storms this september and probably 3-4 hurricanes. that'd be my present gues anyway!

[Calrissian]

Looking on the other side of the coin, if you were in the US govt., what would be the "best" outcome of a major Cat 4-5 making landfall on the north Gulf Coast

Last year, post Kat, I noted that the US Govt - at some elite levels would be hoping for another 1 or 2 storms to finally convince the idiots it is a bad idea to live below sea level. Of course, politics as it is, such opinion could not be spoken.

Instead we had.... "...Live below sea level, ohh yeah, that make sense, Lets rebuild it, err.. .yeah, it makes sense !"

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If the New Orleans area is hit again, most of the mute fools from last year - too scared to speak up, will finally start to tout 'hey, do we really want to build here'? Of course, they will, until the third hit occurs, then 'they' might start to wake up.

Calrissian: has zero sympathy for those living @ <0 sea level, or on the flood plains (yeah, that goes for you people in the Thames Gateway, fools !)

[crimsone]

Calrissian: has zero sympathy for those living @ <0 sea level, or on the flood plains (yeah, that goes for you people in the Thames Gateway, fools !)

I assume that you realise that an entire nation in Europe would need emigrate on that reasoning :lol:

In all honesty though, what I feel is odd is that only some of NO is below sea level. Why didn't they build that part of NO elsewhere?

To me, the real killer is the fact that the US government has allowed so much industry to basically destroy the natural wetland defences that NO had. That wetland reduces storm surge incredibly effectively - when it's actually there. There's not much left now.

[SnowBear]

The comments on building practices......isnt there a story in the bible, one that says about building houses on sand, and on rock?

I am afraid alot of people may find out at some point exactly the meaning of "flood plain", dont blame the people who live there though, blame the developers who are exploiting any land they can find, safe or unsafe.

[Calrissian]

I will have to restrain myself regarding the whole 'idiots building/living on flood plains' - its another thread really.

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As for the season, well Aug'26'th until we got our first Cane, regardless of what Ernesto does do, I can't help but wonder what lies beyond.

For all we know, Ernesto may be the 'peak' storm of this year, although many said that of Katrina, only to have Rita whack another chunk of land in October.

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Calrissian: DIY electrical work, kinda tricky

[crimsone]

What was that I suggested about bad luck for any would-be hurricane out there in the Atlantic this season? lol