The Warmest September ever recorded?

[Guest Mike W]

Well Phillip Eden thought that Hadley might be 0.1 above his Manley CEt, well it eneded up being 0.2 above at 16.8 compared to his 16.6. A cynic could say that the Met Office want to hard sell AGW by upping the CET to break it higher than by 0.1 to make look more convincing. Difficult to say but when Phillip says it will be 0.1 above his, he is normally correct.

Edited October 2, 2006 by Mike W

[Snowly does it]

Well Phillip Eden thought that Hadley might be 0.1 above his Manley CEt, well it eneded up being 0.2 above at 16.8 compared to his 16.6. A cynic could say that the Met Office want to hard sell AGW by upping the CET to break it higher than by 0.1 to make look more convincing. Difficult to say but when Phillip says it will be 0.1 above his, he is normally correct.

That would be very cynical, yes

[Upgrade]

That would be very cynical, yes

all we need now is a few more winters with more or less absence of frost and we'll be well on our way to producing great wine and having the south covered in mediterranean flora.

has anyone else noticed that olive trees now seem to be hardy in the Southern England climate and are now even beginning to be planted as street trees in parts of central london (no, this is not a joke - i couldn't believe my eyes when i saw this the other week).

Sorry this is a bit off topic but i find it all very exciting.

[Snowly does it]

all we need now is a few more winters with more or less absence of frost and we'll be well on our way to producing great wine and having the south covered in mediterranean flora.

has anyone else noticed that olive trees now seem to be hardy in the Southern England climate and are now even beginning to be planted as street trees in parts of central london (no, this is not a joke - i couldn't believe my eyes when i saw this the other week).

Sorry this is a bit off topic but i find it all very exciting.

We haven't had any winters with absence of frost either more, or less.

Ultimately however it could go that way

[Snowyowl9]

Another record broken.

As Ian said September has been dominated by southerly winds and with those warm nights and cloud cover it`s not that surprising to me...and those ex-tropical storms moving north bringing more warmth.

September can be classed as a summer month now.

If you want too see how the months have changed for Sheffield from 1955 just have a look here.

http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/html/ave...55_onwards.html

September hasn't really changed all that much bar this year thats made a huge bump at the end. Other months have changed more however again Sheffield is only one small area in the UK.

September 1986 looked chilly, stands out as the only single figure.

S9.

[Summer of 95]

If you want too see how the months have changed for Sheffield from 1955 just have a look here.

http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/html/ave...55_onwards.html

September hasn't really changed all that much bar this year thats made a huge bump at the end. Other months have changed more however again Sheffield is only one small area in the UK.

August 1986 really had a mean maximum of 13.4C? The Metoffice has 17.1 as the average max in Sheffield

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/sta...effielddata.txt

[Thundery wintry showers]

June and September seem to have joined the "warming bandwagon" recently. The September change was a step-change around 1998; the month showed no warming trend up until the mid 1990s, but since 1998 only that of 2001 was near or below the long-term average.

I think 2003 heralded a June step-change: again, no sign of a warming trend until 2002, but then 2003 onwards has produced a succession of warm Junes. On my weather records for Cleadon, no June recorded an average minimum above 10C between 1994 and 2001, or maximum above 18C between 1994 and 2002. Since then, all of the past four Junes have achieved both.

[Bottesford]

So any months not shown any sign of warming? With June & Sept now in the camp and many others already in there- have we any unchanged months left?

[Guest Mike W]

I can't see any that have reamined the similar to 20+ yearsm ago. October was one that I would have said had remained unchanged apart 01 and 05 and of course 95, october's have mostley been 10.*. Seven 10.* October's from 97 to present, with 4 in a row from 1997 - 2000, interestingly that is also 4 annual CET's of 10.** in a row so a pattern involving 10. Of course it's possible this year will be the 5th in row which would break this record we have equlled 4 annual CET's record so far.

Edited October 2, 2006 by Mike W

[The PIT]

August 1986 really had a mean maximum of 13.4C? The Metoffice has 17.1 as the average max in Sheffield

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/sta...effielddata.txt

I make it 13.4C according those figures. I'm presuming it's Western Park which is much lower down than us and much more sheltered.

[Optimus Prime]

December has also been a month that has unchanged (in fact has shown a cooling trend since 2000)

In fact the Decembers of 1995/1996 were one of the only two consequtive years that contained a sub 3.0c December (2.3c, 2.9c)

1961, 1962 and 1963 were the only over occasion where all Decembers were below 3.0c.

[Weather-history]

1961, 1962 and 1963 were the only over occasion where all Decembers were below 3.0c.

There was a run of Decembers from 1782 to 1786 that were below 3C and December 1788 was sub zero so that was 6 out of the 7 that was below 3C

December 1878 (-0.3) was followed by December 1879 with 0.7. Infact within a space of 10 years, there was 4 Decembers that was below 1C December 1870 to December 1880

Edited October 2, 2006 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

December has also been a month that has unchanged (in fact has shown a cooling trend since 2000)

Thats if you exclude Dec 2004 which here was the third warmest since we started recording.

[Summer of 95]

So any months not shown any sign of warming? With June & Sept now in the camp and many others already in there- have we any unchanged months left?

December perhaps- if anything there seemed to be a step change around 1990 to much cooler Decembers. Only one December since then was very mild (1994) and even that was a long way off being the warmest ever.

[The PIT]

December perhaps- if anything there seemed to be a step change around 1990 to much cooler Decembers. Only one December since then was very mild (1994) and even that was a long way off being the warmest ever.

Mild Decembers we've recorded since 1990

1994 6.1C

1997 6.1C

1998 5.5C

2000 5.5C

2004 6.2C

[Weather-history]

Ireland has had its warmest September ever

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breaking/stor...amp;n=197155496

Oslo has had its warmest September on record

http://www.aftenposten.no/english/local/article1479251.ece

New Zealand has had its 3rd warmest September on record

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3815152a11,00.html

Adelaide has had its 2nd warmest September on record

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20511299-1702,00.html

Melbourne has had its warmest ever September

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0...5005962,00.html

[Optimus Prime]

Any places recording a cold September?

[North-Easterly Blast]

I would suggest that when final figures come in or at the end of the year the September CET could possibly get revised down to 16.7 or 16.6. They first put June down as 16.1 and then downgraded it to 15.9.

Yes, September has become equally as repetitive as the winter patterns with warmth year after year. Until 1997 there was no sign of a warming trend, after in fact a run of average to cool Septembers between 1986 and 1996 except for 1989 and 1991. Around 1997/1998 there was a major upward trend in Sept temps, with since then a persistent recurring pattern in most years of the Azores High frequently crossing the UK into Europe dragging in more persistent S'lys / SE'lies, and any unsettled spells being limited to low pressure stagnated west of Ireland dragging up unsettled spells on warm TM SW'lies. One or both of these patterns sums up every September since 1997 with the exception of 2001 which produced frequent changeable W'lies / NW'lies resulting in the only September with an average to slightly below CET since the mid 90s. It is just so odd that September warmth year after year has repeated and I would say does contribute towards milder than average winters to follow. Exceptions to mild winters after a warm September only seem to occur when there is a large block over Europe during October such as in 1978 and 1985.

June has also joined the repetitive warm territory since 2003, after showing no warming until then. The past four Junes have seen a rather repetitive pattern of Azores Highs moving into Europe giving more frequent June heatwaves, or changeable TM SW'lies.

October is a month that has not shown any warming trend since the 1960s and although three of the four warmest Octobers on record have occurred in the last 11 years there was also a run of average Octobers from 1997-2000, and a run of average to cool Octobers from 2002-2004, so Oct still has shown some variability in recent years.

[West is Best]

I would suggest that when final figures come in or at the end of the year the September CET could possibly get revised down to 16.7 or 16.6.

Got any evidence for this assertion?

[snowsure]

Any places recording a cold September?

The US has the following:

http://www.metoffice.com/cgi-bin/newsid?ar...poch=1158278400

http://www.metoffice.com/cgi-bin/newsid?ar...poch=1158278400

Some parts of Australia:

http://www.metoffice.com/cgi-bin/newsid?ar...poch=1158278400

South Africa are having a tough time at the moment.

http://www.metoffice.com/cgi-bin/newsid?ar...poch=1158278400

Not going to balance this with warming events because they are happening under our very noses.

[Terminal Moraine]

Of the winters following the 18 Septembers on the CET record with a mean temp' of 15.0c or greater only 5 were cold or rather cold, 5 had 1 cold month, the other two being average or mild, and 8 were mild or very mild.

The last cold winter to follow a 15c+ September was in 1780.

This does not make great reading for cold winter fans and is best viewed with the approach that we are long overdue one.

T.M

[Nick H]

Of the winters following the 18 Septembers on the CET record with a mean temp' of 15.0c or greater only 5 were cold or rather cold, 5 had 1 cold month, the other two being average or mild, and 8 were mild or very mild.

The last cold winter to follow a 15c+ September was in 1780.

This does not make great reading for cold winter fans and is best viewed with the approach that we are long overdue one.

T.M

There is no strong correlation between a warm September and a mild winter. 3 of the warmest 10 Septembers in the last 100 years preceded mild winters (1998, 1949, 1947), 3 preceded cold winters (1961, 1958, 1933) and 4 preceded average or near-average winters (2005, 1999, 1959, 1929). As is often the case, these hypotheses about certain conditions in certain months leading to certain conditions in following months are exposed for what they are...baloney.

[Dawlish]

There is no strong correlation between a warm September and a mild winter. 3 of the warmest 10 Septembers in the last 100 years preceded mild winters (1998, 1949, 1947), 3 preceded cold winters (1961, 1958, 1933) and 4 preceded average or near-average winters (2005, 1999, 1959, 1929). As is often the case, these hypotheses about certain conditions in certain months leading to certain conditions in following months are exposed for what they are...baloney.

Couldn't agree more, Nick :blink:

[Scorcher]

The US has the following:

http://www.metoffice.com/cgi-bin/newsid?ar...poch=1158278400

http://www.metoffice.com/cgi-bin/newsid?ar...poch=1158278400

September in the US was rather cool, but the heat has returned through the Rockies, Midwest and Great Plains region for the beginning of October. Some quite exceptional heat for this time of year with Dallas at 36C and Kansas City and St Louis at 34C.

Edited October 2, 2006 by Scorcher

[North-Easterly Blast]

What, the warm September of 1999 preceded an average winter! Oh no it didn't. It led to a mild winter. Winter 1999-2000 was mild with a CET at 5.4 and had little snowfall, and Jan & Feb 2000 were both very poor for cold weather fans, with high pressure sat over the UK in Jan giving no more than average days and colder nights with frosts and mainly mild SW'lies in February.

The winters following the warm Septembers of 1947 and 1949 were mild overall CETwise, but like recent winters, had their cold moments with a bit of snow at times. The winters that followed the warm Septembers of 1929 and 1959 were slightly milder than average although with some reasonable cold wintry spells. The warm September of 2005 led to a winter that was average CETwise but had little snowfall. Winters 1958-59 and 1961-62 were only slightly below average, not that cold really.

I mean to say that a warm September is rarely followed by a particularly cold winter and the only exception to this is when there is a large block over Europe during the October, like in 1978 and 1985.