Autumn and Winter discussion...

[Stratos Ferric]

Indeed, when an Easterly is the result of LP to our south, and the air poleward is cold, then there the continental airmass will be modified, sometimes with dramatic results.

Go see the charts for around 10 Feb 1979 for a classic example, and in my lifetime, THE example of type. What doesn't produce heavy snow (or snow, or possibly any precipitation at all) is a direct flow emanating from Turkey / Greece.

[Nick F]

What a pity that this weekend into next week sees an Easterly airflow all the way from Russia and yet temps will be between 15-18c 62f. Most of you would be digging snowdrifts off your path had these synoptics occured in mid-winter. Crumbs of comfort can be found though with High Pressure to the north and east there is every chance of some wintry weather as we slide deeper into autumn.

karl

I think some are getting their hopes up way too early this autumn at the slightest sign of an Easterly flow, there is way too much residual warmth to get rid of over much of Europe and W'ern Russia, before we see a cool down sufficient to bring any cool down to here from that direction.

What we ideally need to see is some polar arctic shots via N'erlies though the interior of NE (Scandinavia) and E'ern Europe to get rid of the residual warmth that has built up from late summer and early autumn so far.

Give it another month and things may have cooled sufficiently out East, though by then we may be in the realm of a raging Atlantic

[The Enforcer]

I don't think it matters how cold any potential northerly and easterly is atm anyway.

What is far more important, for those who are cold-lovers, is to look for continuing signs of a favourable pattern emerging that will bring the goods when winter proper arrives.

Tamara

Absolutely spot on. I might do a bit of SST research like I did last year. But instead of focusing on the North Atlantic, this time I'm going to examine the Pacific.

Give it another month and things may have cooled sufficiently out East, though by then we may be in the realm of a raging Atlantic :lol:

No - that won't happen until the first rendition of "Auld lang syne".

[Daisy]

Just picking up on a few of the recent points on here:

a> The newbie registers and reads all these cold winter forecasts from people with 1000's of posts and races off to stock up on supplies.

Lol , That's exactly what happened to me last year!! (Had to get a few tins of soup in; was convinced by everyones interpretations of the charts that we were in for the coldest Winter since....... !) So close yet so far, a real roller coaster. Of course I know better this year

( Sorrry post out of context now. Didn't realise how much the thread had moved on :lol: )

D

Edited October 10, 2006 by Daisy

[The PIT]

Well even allowing for ramping only a few got carried away. Of course the beast from the east caught us all out when that went pair shaped at the 90Th hour.

[TEITS]

Well even allowing for ramping only a few got carried away. Of course the beast from the east caught us all out when that went pair shaped at the 90Th hour.

I tell you what makes me laugh when I joined this forum many told me the synoptics that bring the E,ly's are extinct in this even larger teapot era and are unachieveable, and yet today nearly every post I read is talking about E,lys. :lol:

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I tell you what makes me laugh when I joined this forum many told me the synoptics that bring the E,ly's are extinct in this even larger teapot era and are unachieveable, and yet today nearly every post I read is talking about E,lys. :lol:

Do you still draw up charts on your wallpaper?

But you're right; re trend to cold history has shown you have been so far ahead of the curve not even your dust cloud is visible.

Blow on, winter 2006/7.

[SMU]

So you are resorting to the tendency of which Steve Murr accused me in the summer i.e. arguing current synoptic patterns on the basis of future model output charts ...!

to find anything else. Next time the Hadley CET differs from your lawn we must remember to write and correct them.

Cant let it Lie eh richard...

Just briefly as this is the Wrong thread-

For the one time of asking Richard now all the data is in-

Heres the Summer 500 height anomlies- once you have located Europe which is to the left & north of the Centre you will see June July & August

As illustrated all the +VE anomalies are over Europe- & for the August the NW atlantic-

JUNE:

JULY:

AUG:

Certainly NOWT in terms of +VE form the Azores-- I argued with Science ( AS ever) as theses are the CORRECT anomalies-

Anyway, not to harp on about summer- A couple of interesting quotes from yourself....

I'm afraid to say I think those of you anticipating a cold winter are living in a world that ceased to exist twenty years ago.

Hum- Bit of a wild & sweeping statement....

A relentless series of record-breaking warmth has been the fact over the last 6 months

6 months? 2 Months of heat- july & Sept- the rest Above average- So a bit of OTT there-

Since September blocking has given way to the thoroughly familiar thumping Atlantic, and we're back in a full-blown extremely mild zonality.

Er no not really- Zonality/Zonal-

When the upper level winds are parallel or nearly parallel to the lines of latitude the wind pattern is termed zonal. When the winds cross the latitude lines at a sharp angle, the wind pattern is termed meridional. In a meridional pattern the jet stream will have highly amplified troughs and ridges. Low pressure systems tend to move faster (west to east) when associated with a zonal flow. A highly meridional flow can cause atmospheric blocking and spells of much below and much above normal temperatures. A meridional pattern, which its highly curved flow, generates more vorticity than that associated with a zonal flow. Forecasting becomes more challenging when the jet stream has a meridional pattern.

Just a reminder of what zonal is- not apparent in this case-

Anyway- not to rest on the summer Laurels As I & MANY others keep insisting SUMMER DOESNT = WINTER by this I mean its becoming increasingly apparent that the broad assumption by some- to which I include yourself is that the driver behind the Summer warmth will be automatically transposed across to Winter whether that be in terms of AGW or Synopic profiles- even though SF presented an uncorrelated CET Scattergraph-

Interestingly the heat of 1995 with a combined July & August temp of 37.8C ( some 5.1c above the ave) which holds the record for the hottest two consecutive Summer months produced a Cold Winter & 2 below ave months-( & the October Yeilded a CET of 12.9)

Delve deeper into the Archives you find something else very interesting- Of the 3 octobers that were over 13 Degrees CET out of the 9 Winter months there were 5 months below average & 4 above.... again dismissing any claims that this heat in ANY way shape or form dictates a Warmer Winter-

October is very much a transitional Month with the largest negative temperature trend of any other Month, with this considered it has the biggest chance given the correct Synoptics to appear to have the biggest anomaly V trend-

I must go back though to the whole debate that must be wrapped up before Winter & that is GW & Synoptics..

There MUST be a link because simply put

'The forcing on the atmosphere is constantly in a state of Flux- Changing SOME OF THE VARIABLES THROUGH AGW such as surface temp, Oceanic temp, Ice cover into Larger & Larger Anomalies will inevitably exadurate the cause & effect of the forcing'

With this in mind I will try to do a small peice of work for the Winter forecast which covers Forcing V Patterns- however I think from every corner knowledge is limited-

When reading the next paragraph I am also assuming that the recent changing in forcing is subject to rapid acceleration over the next decade-

What Can be Gleaned is with huge anomalies in forcing there will be large anomlies in the 500 MB height feild & 'GENERAL' warming through the 850 Millibar Field- this then assists us with the assumption that the Northern hemisphere will take on a more blocked pattern & a large scale change Climate change being exadurated across the 2 extreme seasons ( Summer & Winter- this is because of the greatest gradient across the Pole & Equator)

Anyone with a shred of credibility will understand that the overall Warming will infact outweigh the regions of local cooling however what we shouldnt do is cast an asertion that the UK WONT be effected by some regional cooling during the Winter & a larger degree of heating during the summer Months- & probable LONGER Summer-

This then ties up with the changing in 'forcing' linking in with the seasonal feedbacks- its becoming apparent over the last few Summers the overall 'trend' has been towards a more continental influence with a higher incidence of Southerly & Easterly flows -

This ALSO ties in though with the recent Winter patterns of More Easterlies & South Easterlies- the only difference being is the feedback for Winter retrogrades the Euro high Further North-

My final though would be this-

If you & some others think that this Winter is going to be a South westerly / Mild driven affair driven by AGW & recent statistics then the arguement is flawed- not by innacurate data but by an insidious change in 500MB/ Hemispheric flow patterns that you FAIL to observe & Fail to take into Consideration when punting for the Winter-

Regards

Steve

Edited October 10, 2006 by Steve Murr

[TEITS]

Do you still draw up charts on your wallpaper?

:lol:

But you're right; re trend to cold history has shown you have been so far ahead of the curve not even your dust cloud is visible.

Blow on, winter 2006/7.

No I don't bother so much these days with the wallpaper or forecasting for that matter. After all those heated debate's on this forum I prefer just to look at the model's and chip in now and then and generally keep a lower profile.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cant let it Lie eh richard...

Hum- Bit of a wild & sweeping statement....

6 months? 2 Months of heat- july & Sept- the rest Above average- So a bit of OTT there-

Er no not really- Zonality/Zonal-

Regards

Steve

Steve

Cut it down hugely of course but what a robust response :lol: One thing I will highlight also is Feb, March and Aug were also below average...

BFTP

[Anti-Mild]

Steve

Cut it down hugely of course but what a robust response :lol: One thing I will highlight also is Feb, March and Aug were also below average...

BFTP

I believe that this will be the pattern of our weather for a while. Because of a greater level of blocking I would expect that our summers will become hotter with some record breaking spells but our Winters will also get colder, although because of AGW and the associated modification of polar continental and polar maritime air I cannot see many low temperatures being broken.

[SMU]

Steve

Cut it down hugely of course but what a robust response One thing I will highlight also is Feb, March and Aug were also below average...

BFTP

Thanks....

If anyone wonders why the record for Sept was broke.....

Mid lattitude 850 Temp anomaly is very consistent for Mid lattitudes...

Combine this with the 500 Mb anomaly ( high heights over Europe again advecting heat NW)

that was the answer........

S

PS..........

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...;!chart.gif :lol:

Edited October 10, 2006 by Steve Murr

[chilly milly]

No I don't bother so much these days with the wallpaper or forecasting for that matter. After all those heated debate's on this forum I prefer just to look at the model's and chip in now and then and generally keep a lower profile.

Now that is a shame, because I for one, used to enjoy reading your posts and loved the enthusiasm that you showed for your forecasts. I am hoping to hear lots more from you again this winter. :lol:

[WINTRY WALES]

Hi all,

Steve great post!! Again your theories are backed up with sound, quality answers.

It must drive you mad having to answer over exagerated comments etc... that come from certain people.

'Full blow atlantic' my I have a problem :lol: I know one thing that supports yours and others ideas of synoptic change etc...

as daft as it may sounds, my local football team who i play for, didnt have hardlly a game called off last winter for a watterlogged pitch Nor this year yet, the ground is still sound as a pound.

The last few years previous, game after game is usually called off due to the boggy pitches from now all the way through to march, but there is something different that has happened in the last 14 months or so.

I can feel it in my feet

Wintry Wales

[Mr Maunder]

What Can be Gleaned is with huge anomalies in forcing there will be large anomlies in the 500 MB height feild & 'GENERAL' warming through the 850 Millibar Field- this then assists us with the assumption that the Northern hemisphere will take on a more blocked pattern & a large scale change Climate change being exadurated across the 2 extreme seasons ( Summer & Winter- this is because of the greatest gradient across the Pole & Equator)

Steve,

Fascinating stuff - it will be very interesting to see how it pans out over the next decade. I like the logic!

MM

[Polar Continental]

Thanks....

If anyone wonders why the record for Sept was broke.....

Mid lattitude 850 Temp anomaly is very consistent for Mid lattitudes...

Combine this with the 500 Mb anomaly ( high heights over Europe again advecting heat NW)

that was the answer........

S

PS..........

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...;!chart.gif :lol:

Hi Steve,

A great reasoned post, an augment well explained. Hey what a great ECM, if that comes off after all this warmth.

Paul

[Glacier Point]

In the middle of last October's warmth, there was nothing to indicate that mid-November was going to be colder than average - really; not a suasage of a hint.

I disagree. I posted mid October last year how, under ENSO neutral conditions as we were then, that there was a reasonably strong relationship between warm Septembers and cold winters....

taken from my winter forecast 2005/6 issued late November 2005:

"The lesson from historical parallels is therefore that under similar conditions, excessive Autumn warmth is met by a sudden reversal in temperatures during the winter months. Crucially, none of the warm winters experienced in the last 10 years outside of 1999/2000 have come close to the SSTA and ENSO conditions now prevalent.."

and in the winter review....

"Back in November I identified a combination of an active hurricane season (increased tropical Atlantic convection), neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions allied to a warm September as possible signals of an impending reversal in the monthly warming trend. I think the dramatic shift in patterns during November which took an above average first half of the month to a below average second half of the month in some way may be attributed to this, as can in part the following December pattern. So if we arrive in October with ENSO neutral (as they may well be) conditions, and a warm September behind us, take the tip, the cold will not be far away. The shift to weak La Nina conditions may however have promoted alterations in the Pacific and jet patterns over North America."

It may not have been the degree of cold forecast - I think the switch to La Nina did have an impact as did the strongly -ve QBO - but I would maintain that Autumn warmth, under the right teleconnective regime is a positive signal for winter cold. The case is however hampered by a low sample.

GP

Edited October 10, 2006 by Glacier Point

[summer blizzard]

Glacier Point, how do you think the El Nino will influence this change to cold, by making it earlier or later, or mitigating the effects??

[WhiteFox]

I'm interested in what you have to say about GW and synoptics. Why would a warming climate favour a persistent HP to the east of us ? After all, that has been the reason for the warm weather in July, September , and now October.

Increased continental temperatures should favour the formation of a heat low, if anything.

Also, the CET and global temperatures have levelled out , at least for now.

Climate is a different fish from shorter-term synoptics. Why don't heat lows form in the South West US? Why don't they form in other desert/arid regions of the world equally as hot or hotter than the persistent HP to the East of the UK? I'm not saying that desert is forming in Europe, but I'd suspect that heat lows form more easily over Spain thanks to Atlantic influence whereas further North East, there is less such mixing. Other than that, I don't know, but I'm sure someone more expert could tell us!

The shifting of patterns elsewhere will impact other regions. Where air is heating and rising in one area, it will inevitably cool and sink in another area. We don't fully understand all of the dynanics of the climate.

As for CET and global temperatures, I refer you once again to the trends and your own caveat 'at least for now'. I we experience a few years where the CET is below recent highs then that does not signify a cooling trend. If we start recording CETs and global temperatures below those recorded 30-50 years ago then there may be a case. We are, I am led to understand, approaching a solar minimum which should result in lower temperatures. If the resulting temperatures are higher than those recorded during the last such mimimum then it is strongly suggestive of long-term warming.

As for AGW, I still don't know what it stands for!

[Dawlish]

Climate is a different fish from shorter-term synoptics. Why don't heat lows form in the South West US? Why don't they form in other desert/arid regions of the world equally as hot or hotter than the persistent HP to the East of the UK? I'm not saying that desert is forming in Europe, but I'd suspect that heat lows form more easily over Spain thanks to Atlantic influence whereas further North East, there is less such mixing. Other than that, I don't know, but I'm sure someone more expert could tell us!

The shifting of patterns elsewhere will impact other regions. Where air is heating and rising in one area, it will inevitably cool and sink in another area. We don't fully understand all of the dynanics of the climate.

As for CET and global temperatures, I refer you once again to the trends and your own caveat 'at least for now'. I we experience a few years where the CET is below recent highs then that does not signify a cooling trend. If we start recording CETs and global temperatures below those recorded 30-50 years ago then there may be a case. We are, I am led to understand, approaching a solar minimum which should result in lower temperatures. If the resulting temperatures are higher than those recorded during the last such mimimum then it is strongly suggestive of long-term warming.

As for AGW, I still don't know what it stands for!

HI Whitefox. Anthropomorphic Global Warming. ie we're chucking out CO2 and that is the cause of the warming. Very distinct from GW, wich is a fact. AGW may be a fact, but it not accepted to a whole range of degrees, by a whole range of people - which leads to some inetersting debates.

Paul

Edited October 11, 2006 by Dawlish

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Folks, as we are still in a warm sector of Autumn and thoughts by some [including me ] await the cooldown I thought I'd share with you a rare old photo. My cousin lives in the USA [idaho] and got hold of this.......enjoy

Right got it to show thanks to Steve MURR [cheers Steve] but need to enlarge it.

BFTP

Edited October 11, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[blitzen]

What a wonderful photograph BFTP is it Niagara Falls?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What a wonderful photograph BFTP is it Niagara Falls?

Blitzen

Yes it is. That must have been an intensely cold winter and a long one too.

BFTP

[SMU]

Blitzen

Yes it is. That must have been an intensely cold winter and a long one too.

BFTP

This is blasts Picture-

S

[Big Bear]

This is blasts Picture-

S

I wonder if BFTP can find out what year that was. From looking at the figures standing in the foreground I'd say around 1900-1910 or perhaps earlier