Autumn and Winter discussion...

[Joneseye]

A very good idea :lol: .

My main point im making about August is that for my location it wouldn't of mattered if the temps were +25C it was a very dull/wet month and very disappointing.

Apparently it is not alright to talk about the weather in one's location unless of course if you live in Devon... August here was a dreadful month too.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thing is with easterlies, it's imperative that the blocking forms in the right place. At the moment the trend is for strong north-eastern blocking, but crucially with high pressure centred south of Scandinavia, giving SSE winds. That is not generally good for snow, as we saw last winter:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060123.gif

At the very least, the high needs to be centred over Scandinavia, preferably with a ridge to our north:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119910207.gif

or even more preferably, a flabby HP zone to our north and north-west:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119780212.gif

[Stratos Ferric]

True: but I had simply commented on the argument on this thread. I would not agree with "full-blown zone zoneality" as a current description and nor clearly does Richard now in his subsequent post dealing with my post as he sees it a possible/likely future development.

I certainly agree we face yet another month with the CET noteably above normal although I cannot see last October's levels (CET 13.1 from memory) reached on the basis that:

1. In a weeks time my guesstimate for the CET would be about 14c at most (approximately 2c above the average of 12c for the first half of the month)

2. the second half of what is the most rapidly cooling month would have to show a remarkable positive anomaly of 3.9 from an average of 8.3 in the second half to an actual figure of 12.2 to bring the average back to 13.1.

I have not checked the figures yet (literally scrawled out on the back of a fag packet)...

Please feel free to correct!

Regards

ACB

Andrew,

As things stand I would rule nothing out for October. I'd have agreed esterday that a very high outcome looked unlikely, though above par was probable. Today I've softened that view a little; the alternative to the potentially cool 20-25th spell may well be unseasonably mild as well, in which case another very warm month cannot be rules out. Of course my CET punt does mean I have a vested interest!

[kold weather]

The set-up right now being shown by the models is very similar to that we saw last winter, with a Scandi high building as a strong Icelandic low drifts northwards, now quite far enough west though to give us a easterly so rather we get a flow from Europe instead.

In winter thats a classic inversion type set-up with slack flow from the SE though without a inversion would suggest slight above average temps depending exactly on the flow.

The last few weeks has been dominated by slack condtions though it has overall been quite strongly influanced by the Atlantic, even if its just because there is nothing else of note really around of region of the world.

So while the atlantic has been the most dominating thing so far, it only takes a boost from the Scandi high to get rid of it completely again, as we are seeing on the models now with a 1030mbs being more then enough to force the jet westwards.

By the way comprasions between October 2005 and any other October should be made with a note that 2005 had the most amount of hurricanes and TS ever in October, therefore there was far more forcing from the south then there would normal be and far more then this year. Not to say a decnt block to the east and lots of southerlies can't produce as hot temps but it'll require more of a sustained block then last year.

Edited October 9, 2006 by kold weather

[Damien]

To emphasise this point, can anyone think of a recent winter where the general consensus was it was going to be a mild one and it turned out colder (Ok perhaps less mild) than expected?

Yes - the Metcheck February-March 2005 forecast, based on NOAA, which was forecast to be milder than average.

a> The newbie registers and reads all these cold winter forecasts from people with 1000's of posts and races off to stock up on supplies.

b> The grizzled member who's suffered more letdowns than (s)he'd care to remember reads all these cold winter forecasts and thinks "Oh, here we go again".

Quite right. I think every newbie should be made to sit through this and repeat it several times to themselves acknowledge this fact. I am doing my bit by sending copies of past winter forecasts to newbies who post stuff like "sounds good :lol: ". Just yesterday I did this, and I will do so again.

Colder winter?

If the trend towards blocking areas of high pressure building to the north of the UK does become established, this winter could turn out to be one of the coldest of the last 30 years.

There is no evidence of that. In fact, evidence is quite the contrary with global warming raising the temperatures making the likelihood of this winter being much milder than average, and not in fact colder. This winter is likely to be remembered for above average temperatures, as will many more of your winters in your young life.

(*Puts stick away.*)

Edited October 9, 2006 by Damien

[The Enforcer]

Quite different charts, but the main point should be that the synoptics required to bring prolonged 'warm' or 'mild' conditions to the UK outside of the winter months are generally quite different to what is required to bring a mild winter. Richard (WIB) suggested last Autumn that the ongoing warm months would likely lead to a 'stonkingly mild winter'.

Not so. One of the major factors is the track of depressions across the Atlantic and what many of us were able to pick out last Autumn is the lack of depressions making it past the Meridian - i.e - no long jet pattern at Northern latitudes into Scandinavia. Whilst this brings warm conditions in Autumn with blocking over Europe and southerly flows for the UK, in winter it means the potential for blocking to build at higher latitude and advect colder air our way.

Assuming my memory serves me well here, as summer came to an end, wasn't there a consensus on here that autumn was going to be highly zonal: words like 'active', 'blustery' and 'stormy' were being banded about? For the avoidance of doubt, this was mentioned in the context of the whole of the UK not just the western extremeties, which are normally wetter than the east (save August 2006).

As autumn goes it certainly hasn't been especially autumnal. Changeable is probably the best way of describing it, with a few drier quieter days, followed by a few more unsettled days. This is not the picture that was being clearly painted. I'm not out to criticise individuals here who are working hard for the greater good, hence not mentioning any names (also to avoid getting it wrong and having to back-browse many locked threads to dredge up the evidence), but what this does show is that attempting to try and pick out a seasonal trend is extremely difficult, even with lots of data at one's fingertips. Remember that the distance between end of summer and mid autumn is a lot shorter between now and mid-winter.

Bit mean to attack TEITS whose point was the dullish and pretty wet nature of the month of August in the east as opposed to a discussion of the CET...

I think the 'lawn' example could equally apply to a lot of areas of the UK. The disappointment of August was made worse by, you've guessed it, the media who came piling in with ill thought through unrealistic ludicrous claims that August was going to be hotter than July. The short-term forecast at the time looked cooler and in truth it could have gone either way, but as soon as they did that I knew August was going to be devoid of hot weather. That said, I can remember lots of disappointing Augusts, hence why that is the average. I dread the first over-exaggerated "brace yourselves for a big freeze" headline. As soon as that rears it's ugly head, you can guarantee that winter 2006/7 will be crap again. It's not as if they don't do enough damage by stirring up racism.

Apparently it is not alright to talk about the weather in one's location unless of course if you live in Devon... August here was a dreadful month too.

I bet your recent winter months have been more dreadful, assuming you like to see snow.

Thing is with easterlies, it's imperative that the blocking forms in the right place. At the moment the trend is for strong north-eastern blocking, but crucially with high pressure centred south of Scandinavia, giving SSE winds. That is not generally good for snow, as we saw last winter:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060123.gif

Newbies take note - the above does not end your snow drought.

North Sea and NE Atlantic warm anomalies therefore, "stastically", should favour Easterlies over the UK. Will there be a cold pool?

SST map for OCT and DEC 2005 suggests a much weaker signal for Easterlies over the UK. Warm anomaly actually increased for FEB 2006 and we know what happened next

(SST Map 2 months later)

I'm having a stab here, but the biggest differences between SST charts that emanate from cold periods and those from mild periods is not in the North Atlantic, but in the North Pacific. As opposed to looking East, maybe we should really be looking West.

[Dawlish]

Quite right. I think every newbie should be made to sit through this and repeat it several times to themselves acknowledge this fact. I am doing my bit by sending copies of past winter forecasts to newbies who post stuff like "sounds good ". Just yesterday I did this, and I will do so again.

......and other comments above

Hmmm. Do you lot know just how off-putting those kind of comments are to someone thinking about posting? It doesn't matter a toss, to me, how many posts someone has made if their arguments make sense. Do you really feel that every new poster doesn't understand the difference between the difficulties of actually achieving colder weather in a GWUK winter and the faintly silly hoping for it and latching onto every wintry possibility that might crop up on any forecast, anywhere?

Paul

Edited October 9, 2006 by Dawlish

[The Enforcer]

Yes - the Metcheck February-March 2005 forecast, based on NOAA, which was forecast to be milder than average.

That's just one source. Was there a consensus? As it happens, I don't remember the Met Office seeing it coming?

[The Enforcer]

......and other comments above

Hmmm. Do you lot know just how off-putting those kind of comments are to someone thinking about posting? It doesn't matter a toss, to me, how many posts someone has made if their arguments make sense. Do you really feel that every new poster doesn't understand the difference between the difficulties of actually achieving colder weather in a GWUK winter and the faintly silly hoping for it and latching onto every wintry possibility that might crop up on any forecast, anywhere?

For the avoidance of doubt, I am not out to criticise newbies, we were all one ourselves at one stage. It is fair to say that some will weigh up the pros and cons for themselves, but I have seen quite a lot of evidence of many who don't. I include myself here. I first started to use the internet to go beyond the TV weather service around the time of the John Kettley Big Freeze that never was - I think winter 2001/02 was the period. I was duped by all the mass hysteria at that time and if it can happen to me it can happen to anyone. As I said earlier, I am merely pointing out some of the (possibly the only) negative effects. NS has equally pointed out the positive side. There is nothing wrong with these cold winter predictions as long as the counterargument is made clear and here I think it is fair to say that you are one of the main contributors.

[TEITS]

I just wanted to let you know that due to recent comment's by certain poster's that GW is responsible for our lack of cold winter's and how GW is making the chance of a colder winter becoming rarer each passing year I shall be making a rather lengthy post in a few days time to prove GW isn't solely responsible.

Anyone who has read my recent post's will know that I have argued that other factor's have been also responsible and I will also illustrate how our recent so called warm E,ly's actually occured in the past. I shall also post chart's illustrating/explaining why our winter's were so mild during the 80's/90's and will also try and explain what the difference is between a classic freeze like 87 is in comparison to a cold spell like Dec 05.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I just wanted to let you know that due to recent comment's by certain poster's that GW is responsible for our lack of cold winter's and how GW is making the chance of a colder winter becoming rarer each passing year I shall be making a rather lengthy post in a few days time to prove GW isn't solely responsible.

Anyone who has read my recent post's will know that I have argued that other factor's have been also responsible and I will also illustrate how our recent so called warm E,ly's actually occured in the past. I shall also post chart's illustrating/explaining why our winter's were so mild during the 80's/90's and will also try and explain what the difference is between a classic freeze like 87 is in comparison to a cold spell like Dec 05.

Dave

Look forward to it. GW/AGW didn't cause July temps...the stability and length of draw from hot source did ie synoptics. For me with the set up and length of time it happened in July we 'should' have reached UK record all time high if GW was rampant and to blame, but temps from the sourcw were not unique so it didn't occur. Some will quote record breaking CET..yep Hadley USA recorded widespread record low temps in September..why? GW/AGW...of course not synoptics did!

BFTP

[Damien]

That's just one source. Was there a consensus? As it happens, I don't remember the Met Office seeing it coming?

No, quite the opposite, the Met Office were the first to pick it up.

It came as a shock reading that forecast believe me. Sure know who to trust when a cold spell is forecast in future.

[tcc]

Just to say I'm a newbie (literally!) but I've been following various forums for the last 3 years and gained plenty of knowledge from these sites!

I just think it's fascinating reading LRF's when they come out as it does add to the excitement of the possiblities of what winter may bring Does that mean I actually believe they'll pan out like that? No as I know enough to realise it's a forecast, not a realcast. I'm just going to enjoy the ride that awaits us all because at the end of the day, the weather is going to do what it wants! Whether we get depressed, frustrated or get happy as Larry, I just hope we all get at least a little bit of what we would like to see within the next few months!

[johnholmes]

welcome tcc and good to have you posting with us. A good first post also. Keep posting your balanced thoughts please>

John

[WhiteFox]

Dave

Look forward to it. GW/AGW didn't cause July temps...the stability and length of draw from hot source did ie synoptics.

Of course not. But global warming (I won't add AGW because I have not an idea what it stands for; some new acronym that's clearly in vogue) makes such temperatures more likely than ever before.

As for the USA, the cooler September followed on from one of the warmest summers on record, which in itself followed on from one of the warmest winters on record. Altough I don't want to bang the drum too much, nobody is sure of the cause and effect here. I lean towards the warming climate altering the synoptics which in turn creates further warming. Plucking the odd contrary reading from a long line of stastistics, the outlier if you will, does not break the trend. There is no such thing as a perfect linear trned with regards to temperatures, but the trend is clearly up.

The spin doctor has returned.

Tamara

Is that spin cyclonic or anti-cyclonic?

[fine wine]

So you are resorting to the tendency of which Steve Murr accused me in the summer i.e. arguing current synoptic patterns on the basis of future model output charts ...!

I don't know what next week will bring, but I do know we're in prevailing south-westerlies off the Atlantic at the moment. I'll agree with Keving to remove for the time being the two words 'full-blown' for the reasons he cites (and Ian Brown), but this is certainly Atlantic dominated at the moment for the UK, and has been for some time. Doesn't mean blocking won't return, but let's not pretend it's there now.

As for your comment on AGW, I think you exaggerate when you write that it's only 'a tiny influence' on recent UK winters. I think it has almost certainly had a huge impact both synoptically and in actual baseline temperatures here, in Europe, in the Arctic and in Siberia.

Spot on ... as usual.

I'm delighted to see Dave that you are using such tried and trusted quantifiable tests as the grasses of Peterborough. For the one who brought us the Bn'Q winter wallchart it would be disappointing to find anything else. Next time the Hadley CET differs from your lawn we must remember to write and correct them.

Whilst apparetnly very wet in Peterborough. it was much drier just a hour down the road in North Essex. Some parts in the Chelmsford area received less than 10mm and the ground is still rock solid. If people actually think about it, the first week of August was ok, with a hot first weekend, followed by 18 days of cooler, damper weather. The end was fine again. It surprises me that people can write off a summer on less than 3 weeks of poor weather!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Of course not. But global warming (I won't add AGW because I have not an idea what it stands for; some new acronym that's clearly in vogue) makes such temperatures more likely than ever before.

As for the USA, the cooler September followed on from one of the warmest summers on record, which in itself followed on from one of the warmest winters on record. Altough I don't want to bang the drum too much, nobody is sure of the cause and effect here. I lean towards the warming climate altering the synoptics which in turn creates further warming. Plucking the odd contrary reading from a long line of stastistics, the outlier if you will, does not break the trend. There is no such thing as a perfect linear trned with regards to temperatures, but the trend is clearly up.

Is that spin cyclonic or anti-cyclonic?

Quite

One could go on countering etc with record warmth and record cold, Antarctica cooling further etc etc. Re outliers Antarctica and Greenland are not outliers for example especially if the cooling has been recorded for decades but yes it is accepted generally that the planet has warmed by 0.6C ove the last century.

BFTP

[The Enforcer]

Apologies to the handful of members who don't reside in the British Isles, but rather than global trends, what is of most interest is the climate around these shores.

Hypothetically, the Earth could be cooling overall, but if our neck of the woods is becoming warmer (in winter) then its not a good thing if you want snow. Conversely, if the continued global warming resulted in a change in the dynamics so that the BI climate became dominated by continental as opposed to maritime influences, then we would get colder winters. This would be the case even if the Arctic/Eurasian cold was less potent - we would benefit from simply being in the target area.

Don't let the global scene take precedent over the regional scene.

[Mr Sleet]

Of course not. But global warming (I won't add AGW because I have not an idea what it stands for; some new acronym that's clearly in vogue) makes such temperatures more likely than ever before.

As for the USA, the cooler September followed on from one of the warmest summers on record, which in itself followed on from one of the warmest winters on record. Altough I don't want to bang the drum too much, nobody is sure of the cause and effect here. I lean towards the warming climate altering the synoptics which in turn creates further warming. Plucking the odd contrary reading from a long line of stastistics, the outlier if you will, does not break the trend. There is no such thing as a perfect linear trned with regards to temperatures, but the trend is clearly up.

Is that spin cyclonic or anti-cyclonic?

I'm interested in what you have to say about GW and synoptics. Why would a warming climate favour a persistent HP to the east of us ? After all, that has been the reason for the warm weather in July, September , and now October.

Increased continental temperatures should favour the formation of a heat low, if anything.

Also, the CET and global temperatures have levelled out , at least for now.

Edited October 10, 2006 by Mr Sleet

[Frosty.]

What a pity that this weekend into next week sees an Easterly airflow all the way from Russia and yet temps will be between 15-18c 62f. Most of you would be digging snowdrifts off your path had these synoptics occured in mid-winter. Crumbs of comfort can be found though with High Pressure to the north and east there is every chance of some wintry weather as we slide deeper into autumn.

karl

[Stratos Ferric]

What a pity that this weekend into next week sees an Easterly airflow all the way from Russia and yet temps will be between 15-18c 62f. Most of you would be digging snowdrifts off your path had these synoptics occured in mid-winter. Crumbs of comfort can be found though with High Pressure to the north and east there is every chance of some wintry weather as we slide deeper into autumn.

karl

I disagree, unless Russia has moved overnight!

The GFS plots on Wz don't make immediately apparent a lot of hemispheric curvature, unless you look carefully for the lat lines. This weekend's feed is SE'ly at most, off the Balkans, for all that it might seem more left-right across the screen. Even in the depth of winter this feed would be no more than cool, and certainly far too dry for anything other than traces of precipitation.

[mattneal]

I disagree, unless Russia has moved overnight!

The GFS plots on Wz don't make immediately apparent a lot of hemispheric curvature, unless you look carefully for the lat lines. This weekend's feed is SE'ly at most, off the Balkans, for all that it might seem more left-right across the screen. Even in the depth of winter this feed would be no more than cool, and certainly far too dry for anything other than traces of precipitation.

the gfs doesnt show this but a few of the other models do

[kold weather]

As it happens SF we had alot of SE winds last year, esp in January which we saw was very close to average. There'd be probably below average daytime maxes but because of cloud and fog amounts we tend to see above average mins which means a pretty average CET in the end. The only time ther eis much intrest in the SE type flow is when you get those cold inversions like we saw in Feb, though those can really sneak up on you from out of no-where as we saw with the models only spotting the inversion 12hrs out.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I disagree, unless Russia has moved overnight!

The GFS plots on Wz don't make immediately apparent a lot of hemispheric curvature, unless you look carefully for the lat lines. This weekend's feed is SE'ly at most, off the Balkans, for all that it might seem more left-right across the screen. Even in the depth of winter this feed would be no more than cool, and certainly far too dry for anything other than traces of precipitation.

Like this SE'ly

Edited October 10, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[The Enforcer]

which lead to this easterly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219860208.gif

Tamara

Cold certainly - I remember ice six inches thick on the garden pond, but not snowy away from eastern counties. An impressive winter month nonetheless.