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Autumn and Winter discussion...


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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull

    cant wait for the winter with all this talk off a cold one but i hate this boring time off year nothing intersting ever happens except for yesterday. :blink:

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
    cant wait for the winter with all this talk off a cold one but i hate this boring time off year nothing intersting ever happens except for yesterday. :blink:

    Be patient the British climate is notorious for let downs. Also anytime of the year is exciting and dont become a cold ramper by looking at the charts 200h+ and thinking its going to snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scrabster Caithness (the far north of Scotland)
  • Location: Scrabster Caithness (the far north of Scotland)

    not that worried about snow yet, it'll need to get to february with nothing of the white stuff for that, i just want a decent storm and winds!

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    Guest Mike W

    'thunderstrike', I like the way you put none of that freeze up stuff for a month or more and that it can get boring etc. Their/there hasn't been one in over 20 years at least, your talking like it was recent like a year or two ago. But I agree with you on wanting something months long. Personally I have totally given up on seeing a winter like 95/96 let alone 91, 87 etc terriotory, so I am now someone who wants a mild to very mild winter, becasue at least it's very likely to happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    Following on from my post below - here's todays update for xmas day from the CFS, looks fun :lol:

    post-2-1159866895_thumb.png

    Ok, a bit of a give away as to what we're working on for the site at the moment. But this is a chart from the NCEP CFS (climate forecast system), which runs out to 9 months!!

    White xmas anyone??!!

    post-2-1159731988_thumb.png

    Disclaimer - don't take this chart as gospel - it's a climatic long range model which can't be used for specific forecasts at this range!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    Following on from my post below - here's todays update for xmas day from the CFS, looks fun :lol:

    post-2-1159866895_thumb.png

    Paul It's a stunner! :lol: It probably won't be far off :p

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    Now that we are coming into a reliable timeframe I think BFTP has made a good point here - that won't indeed be far off what happens! :lol: ....

    .....

    cough!

    Amazing chart...sigh!

    Tamara

    Look's like we could be spending Xmas day shovelling snow instead of eating turkey SP.

    Stunning chart especially for E area's.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    In all truth, as I'm sure you all know - looking at specifics on these charts is pointless. But I've been following it for a few days now and this system does seem to maintain trends very well - for instance a southerly tracking jet during december. Time will of course tell as to whether it maintains these right up to the time though..

    Just to even things up a tad, here's the chart for new year - not so good for the cold lovers!

    post-2-1159868348.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    In all truth, as I'm sure you all know - looking at specifics on these charts is pointless. But I've been following it for a few days now and this system does seem to maintain trends very well - for instance a southerly tracking jet during december. Time will of course tell as to whether it maintains these right up to the time though..

    Just to even things up a tad, here's the chart for new year - not so good for the cold lovers!

    post-2-1159868348.png

    I may take these chart's with a dose of salt but I appreciate you posting them Paul.

    P.S Please don't post chart's like the New Year one because it upset's the ramping :lol:

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    Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
    Following on from my post below - here's todays update for xmas day from the CFS, looks fun :lol:

    post-2-1159866895_thumb.png

    We are nowhere near any "reliable timeframe" in my opinion and the pinch of salt suggested by Eye is a very good idea!

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that chart is showing something within a reliable timeframe - but the cfs is a well known and respected climatic model, so the trend it is presenting certainly shouldn't be written off.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    I don't think anyone is suggesting that chart is showing something within a reliable timeframe - but the cfs is a well known and respected climatic model, so the trend it is presenting certainly shouldn't be written off.

    Yes keep us posted Paul it will be interesting to see how it develops. Certainly got some interest already :lol:

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    In all truth, as I'm sure you all know - looking at specifics on these charts is pointless. But I've been following it for a few days now and this system does seem to maintain trends very well - for instance a southerly tracking jet during december. Time will of course tell as to whether it maintains these right up to the time though..

    Just to even things up a tad, here's the chart for new year - not so good for the cold lovers!

    post-2-1159868348.png

    At least that chart is T+2184, still some time for a change yet :)

    Nevertheless, interesting that a model can go out that far. The irony is that its probably no less accurate than than the GFS at T+200.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    I'll be interested to see this, if nothing else to give an idea of whether the GFS is good at trend-spotting months in advance. I'm aware that it can sometimes pick out trends out to at least T+264, but to see general jet alignments months in advance would be interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    The New Year one looks highly plausible and consistent with previous New Years with the Jet cranking up for yet another mild January.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    The New Year one looks highly plausible and consistent with previous New Years with the Jet cranking up for yet another mild January.

    That chart does not display the jet cranking up.

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

    Do you know what time it might start to snow Paul? It's just my parents normally come round Christmas Day and if it snows heavily, they might not make it. Alternatively, I could just tamper with the brakes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    Do you know what time it might start to snow Paul? It's just my parents normally come round Christmas Day and if it snows heavily, they might not make it. Alternatively, I could just tamper with the brakes.

    :):(:) If you're lucky they might not be able to come over!! :(

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
    Following on from my post below - here's todays update for xmas day from the CFS, looks fun :)

    post-2-1159866895_thumb.png

    I`ll keep that to see how far off it`ll be :(

    We`re due a white xmas :(

    S9.

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

    Any one know when the -15 (850) isotherm last crossed the UK? How about the -20? (if at all). What was the coldest recorded 850hpa temperature we've experienced?

    Has a gander round the chart archives but bit of a needle haystack job!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Any one know when the -15 (850) isotherm last crossed the UK? How about the -20? (if at all). What was the coldest recorded 850hpa temperature we've experienced?

    Has a gander round the chart archives but bit of a needle haystack job!

    A few of the best Coldest Charts-

    Rrea00219560210.gif

    Rrea00219870112.gif

    Rrea00219790215.gif

    Rrea00220050228.gif

    The lowest DAM value set for the UK has been equally at both Lerwick & The Extreme SE of England (12 Jan 87) measured at 491 DAM...

    S

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