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one of the coldest winters in 30 years?


tom_f123

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m

If the trend towards blocking areas of high pressure building to the north of the UK does become established, this winter could turn out to be one of the coldest of the last 30 years. the weather outlook have stated this heres the link two post your thoughts on this hopefully this statement comes true :angry:

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Posted
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme!
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.

It's an interesting site to read but I would take that statement with a pinch of salt.

Every winter they have headlines like this but I would love them to be right for once.

Mark.

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
It's an interesting site to read but I would take that statement with a pinch of salt.

Every winter they have headlines like this but I would love them to be right for once.

Mark.

The only reliable aspect of our winter weather is that TWO issue a headline sometime during autumn to the effect of "if this and that happen then this coming winter might be one of the coldest since yyyy". It's the www equivalent of the Azores high, reliable and persistent.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
If the trend towards blocking areas of high pressure building to the north of the UK does become established, this winter could turn out to be one of the coldest of the last 30 years. the weather outlook have stated this heres the link two post your thoughts on this hopefully this statement comes true :p

They are not making a forecast here, what they are saying there has been a trend to indicate blocking HP and IF this establishes itself then...the rest speaks for itself because with that scenario it will be.

However, this is anticipated ;)

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

Sounds good. But its a long time away yet.

I think that true cold winters are not just a thing of the past and they are going to come back at some stage, why not this time? I don't think they ever left, and the weather from the west has not been up to much strength wise for a while, ex-hurricane's excepted.

I admit to wishful thinking b/w and accept that this winter may be not cold (just practicing winter outrage avoidance there) :p

Russ ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

Im sure every year we get this sort of headline from somewhere or another, If and buts allow you to predict anything you like - it will be sunny today IF the cloud breaks.

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Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

Well they have to be right one day ;) probably be in 20 years time though.

Oh I would soooo love it to be true but I would rather coldest winter for 45 years :p

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!

If, if, if. Such a small word. Such a wealth of meaning.

Should I start a thread with the title - "Mildest winter in 30 years??" and preface it with...... "if we get a persistent Bartlett high, this winter will be milder than average". I wonder just how many on here would be interested enough to even bother commenting? This thread deserves exactly that much interest.

Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone

It's always this time of year this happens and people then get all hyped up and when the first signs of cold appear some people go into overdrive.

I hope the cold does come but being quite a bit older than some on here i am able to say that even in some of our coldest winters we did not get tons of snow and there were also warmer times so please try not to translate cold into snow for months on end because that just will not happen.

but enjoy it whatever comes.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

The most important words in the TWO 'forecast' are 'if' and 'could'.

These two small words cover every permutation of every eventuality.

T.M

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
If the trend towards blocking areas of high pressure building to the north of the UK does become established, this winter could turn out to be one of the coldest of the last 30 years. the weather outlook have stated this heres the link two post your thoughts on this hopefully this statement comes true :p

What trend? You need a good decade's worth of data to produce a trend. The only trend I can see is ever upwards on the thermometre.

I'm afraid to say I think those of you anticipating a cold winter are living in a world that ceased to exist twenty years ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Exactly

They are just merely pointing out that the current signs of High level blocking were to develop and establish it would be like a mid 80s winter. As I said it isn't a forecast folks but a supposition. :p

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
If the trend towards blocking areas of high pressure building to the north of the UK does become established, this winter could turn out to be one of the coldest of the last 30 years. the weather outlook have stated this heres the link two post your thoughts on this hopefully this statement comes true :p

I too was hopeful for a return of the 2 week cold snaps of yesteryear but the arrival of El-Nino may overwrite the changes that had been occurring over the past 2 winters. Any pattern shift that I thought I was seeing will have its 'signal' swamped by the stronger ENSO signatures. Baah ,pooh but I think we're stuck with it!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
What trend? You need a good decade's worth of data to produce a trend. The only trend I can see is ever upwards on the thermometre.

I'm afraid to say I think those of you anticipating a cold winter are living in a world that ceased to exist twenty years ago.

18 months West...its a start. :p i remember when we had a few months of this 'trend' after Feb 05 and you stated more time, quite rightly ...we are now 18 months down the line, more time quite rightly...but we continue.

GW where are you coming from...weak to moderate El Nino???!!! Is there something else been reported recently that a strong El Nino is forecast or brewing.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

They said something very similar to this last year, they even had a picture of a polar bear crossing the Thames.

In this climate I just can't see a winter coming in as 'one of the coldest'. Since 1979 we haven't really had a memorably cold winter (with all winter months producing nottable cold and snow)

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
They said something very similar to this last year, they even had a picture of a polar bear crossing the Thames.

In this climate I just can't see a winter coming in as 'one of the coldest'. Since 1979 we haven't really had a memorably cold winter (with all winter months producing nottable cold and snow)

OP

That has never been the norm and never would be in a cool temperate western margin climate. I think even the most ardent hopecasters wouldn't expect that in reality.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
18 months West...its a start. :D i remember when we had a few months of this 'trend' after Feb 05 and you stated more time, quite rightly ...we are now 18 months down the line, more time quite rightly...but we continue.

18 months? Must be missing something. A relentless series of record-breaking warmth has been the fact over the last 6 months, and it looks like continuing this month. Warm, getting warmer ... whilst synoptically the theory of more blocking might produce a colder feel in the UK, last winter was in many ways the final exemplar of AGW. With all the right synoptics nothing really severe was produced. Since September blocking has given way to the thoroughly familiar thumping Atlantic, and we're back in a full-blown extremely mild zonality. Ultimately a cold winter here would require some quirky local bucking of the relentless drive to Global Warming. It's certainly not impossible, but I think it's becoming more and more unlikely.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
GW where are you coming from...weak to moderate El Nino???!!!

BFTP

As with past El-Nino events they are better discussed and understood AFTER the event.

The bodies calling a weak/moderate El-Nino were also reasurring us that the La-Nina would not dramatically impact the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season (well they were right for the wrong reasons there!) but El-Nino's formation has.

Good job we don't have too many 'Weak' El-Nino's as ,as this one was forming, it Kyboshed the NOAA,NHC predictions for the 2006 Hurricane season (even with the August update only 1 storm was struck off the list yet here we are 3 weeks from the end and what have we got to date????) and brought us the warmest September on record!!! Very Glad it isn't a strong one with more of an impact (277 yr old record and a 'weak El-Nino ' quashes it????)

I think we should agree to differ on our percieved understanding of the impact of ENSO events as we seem to be argueing over a thing which has ,historically, defied prediction. We should also not enter into the GW implications of this event lest we descend into more hopecasting (against all odds :D )

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Yes BFTP they didn't occur often but they did occur. Here are the gaps in years between a very cold winter;

1916/1917

11 years

1928/1929

10 years

1939/1940

2 years

1941/1942

5 years

1946/1947

9 years

1955/1956

7 years

1962/1963

16 years

1978/1979

3 years

1981/1982

...

It's now been 24 years and counting since we've had a good winter. On average a severe winter occured every 7 years. So we're 17 years overdue!

Winter 1995-96?

All 3 winter months produced disruptive snowfalls to various parts of the country.

January 1996 was still slightly milder than average.

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