one of the coldest winters in 30 years?

[Weather-history]

January 1996 was still slightly milder than average.

It was but this was part of your post

"with all winter months producing nottable cold and snow"

Although it above average it nevertheless still produce notable cold and snow.

[Dawlish]

Exactly

They are just merely pointing out that the current signs of High level blocking were to develop and establish it would be like a mid 80s winter. As I said it isn't a forecast folks but a supposition.

BFTP

...........and I' just merely pointing out that if we get similar dominance, by a continental high pressure, a we've had in many of the last 10 years, we'll be on the northern limb having mild temperatures. The "if" on the cold side has to be balanced by the "ifs" on every other side. It is when the cold "ifs" begin to add up to something in a cold-hopers mind, like....."all the indications (ifs) recently look really good for what we are wanting" that it all gets a bit silly. I know I can be pretty certain that this won't be the last thread of this kind. Fun, in a way.

paul

Edited October 9, 2006 by Dawlish

[Essan]

I reckon it could well be the coldest winter since at least 2005 .......

From what I can recall, every single year there are encourganing signs that the coming winter will be cold and snowy. Every year someone or other suggests a return to the good ol' 80s winters is on the cards. And every year it turns out pretty unspectacular.

I'd wait until March before getting too excited ....

[Optimus Prime]

I don't know the stats for that month but I only remember the very last few days producing cold and it was hardly notable cold throughout that winter apart from the very end to December 95'.

February was cold in that year and produced some snowstorms but there were'nt any memorably cold days. It was frequently quite cold rather then any very cold days (Very cold in meaning a succession of maxima well below freezing)

[geri2k]

Me thinks I should go to lap land for a little holiday this xmas! Might be the only way to see a little snow.

[Weather-history]

(Very cold in meaning a succession of maxima well below freezing)

You'll be very surprised that is actually not that common as some people think.

[Snowyowl9]

I reckon it could well be the coldest winter since at least 2005 .......

I'd wait until March before getting too excited ....

It`ll be snowier than last winter

[Gray-Wolf]

It`ll be snowier than last winter

I don't doubt that but it won't be cold ! Snow falls with temps at 1*c quite happily but the prospect of a 4 or 5 day run of sub-zero daytime max's this winter ???

I get the idea that those type of 'sustained cold' periods are done with but that the 3 day wonder (the 'toppler' or mini-easterly) is far from 'dead' .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18 months? Must be missing something. A relentless series of record-breaking warmth has been the fact over the last 6 months, and it looks like continuing this month. Warm, getting warmer ... whilst synoptically the theory of more blocking might produce a colder feel in the UK, last winter was in many ways the final exemplar of AGW. With all the right synoptics nothing really severe was produced. Since September blocking has given way to the thoroughly familiar thumping Atlantic, and we're back in a full-blown extremely mild zonality. Ultimately a cold winter here would require some quirky local bucking of the relentless drive to Global Warming. It's certainly not impossible, but I think it's becoming more and more unlikely.

West

There you go again Feb, March and August have been below. July didn't beat the Manley so yes some record breaking months but not a relentless series. And if you think that because the UK didn't get record cold yet much of the continent did is the final example of AGW...well need I say more...it's goona be an interesting forum this winter re blocking giving way to a thumping Atlantic hmmm

BFTP

[kold weather]

The thing to remember West is that the breif cool-down of the mid 90's also contained some pretty impressive summer.

Am I not wrong in saying that the 95/96 winter came after one of the warmest ever summers?

One striking thing about both now and then is that we've still got strong blocking to our east...and that would give the thumbs up to being able to have a hot summer and colder winter.

Saying that clearly to me what SF said and others have said is right, if they put about milder weather this winter as a forecast its not going to get nearly as many hits as a cold winter headline, would it!

Still I do personally see a shot at a colder then normal winter though I can't see it getting much below the 95/96 benchmark...

Equally if the HP blocks form slightly too far east, it would not be out of the question for us to have a very mild winter on a par with some of the mildest ever, because if everything sets up too far east, we are left in a SSW flow just like 1988/89 and 1998.

[paul tall]

Thats right, the 95/96 winter came after a hot, and very, very sunny summer.

This year we have had a hot and very, very sunny summer.

Ergo, we are doomed.

Batton down those hatches boys and girls, we are in for it!

Apart from Abingdon.

[johnholmes]

try the post I made about any link with the 10 hot summers and the following winter, it all depends which one you want to believe I think.

There is evidence to support a colder than 1971-2000 average and also evidence, on the basis of the 10 hot summers, to support a milder than average winter.

John

[Bham Chris]

Hmm,I'd personally settle for a repeat of last winter.I do it was a bit boring but it was nice to have an un-mild winter for a chance.We have to be realistic and take what we get thanks to global warming.

[Rustynailer]

I want/would-like, snow on the ground at least a foot of it, for at least 2 weeks, with ice days, before i depart this Earth, i know its possible, i seen it when i was a teenager during the late 70s-early 80s in Cheshire Perhaps this year

If i does not happen, that's another reason to hope there is an afterlife

[Dawlish]

I want/would-like, snow on the ground at least a foot of it, for at least 2 weeks, with ice days, before i depart this Earth, i know its possible, i seen it when i was a teenager during the late 70s-early 80s in Cheshire Perhaps this year

If i does not happen, that's another reason to hope there is an afterlife

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH

Paul

PS That feels better.

PPS I wasn't angry about the snowhoping, just the apostrophe in tornado's

[Guest Daniel]

I have just seen the new net weather 9 month model and at the moment it suggesting a very mild west wind winter with no real cold and with highs to the south and lows the north. This set up has become very common in recent years and this looks no differnent.

[noggin]

What trend? You need a good decade's worth of data to produce a trend.

Well, we've had the past 3 Winters.....if this Winter proves to turn out to be "cold", will you accept that this could be a trend towards colder Winters?

I am not talking Summers here, which are a separate issue, but Winters have been getting colder for the past 3 years. I know this, because I have observed it. I work outside for part of my working week and have a set of acute senses.

[Guest Mr_S]

I have just seen the new net weather 9 month model and at the moment it suggesting a very mild west wind winter with no real cold and with highs to the south and lows the north.

Read the metoffice winter forecast thread for how good it is to trust an LRF! Thought i cant say right or wrong over the CFS, it seems to be a general rule not to go more then 5-7 days in a forecasting model - as intresting as 9months away is and would be a very useful tool in trend matching - and of course well worth a subscription to NW

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think at the moment the most that can be done is to make a tentative stab at winter predictions as things can change abruptly in a small space of time. Remember that in February 2006 the Arctic was exceptionally warm, but by 1st March temperatures there had returned to normal, giving us quite a potent spell of northerlies.

My current hunch is that it may be similar to last winter, probably starting off milder with more Atlantic influence but the second half may well be rather colder than that of last winter. Unless the SSTs around Iceland end up near-normal and/or we don't end up with a northerly tracking jet, though, the frequent blocking to the NE that I envisage recurring may again be too far east and south to deliver much of consequence. I'll be interested to see Ian Brown's seasonal forecast when it comes out because I remember he too envisaged a lot of blocking to the NE.

As with the last two winters, I have a suspicion that the biggest window for cold snowy weather may be late February/early March, though probably starting earlier this time. But we'll have to see, that is only a guess.

[Bham Chris]

Well, we've had the past 3 Winters.....if this Winter proves to turn out to be "cold", will you accept that this could be a trend towards colder Winters?

I am not talking Summers here, which are a separate issue, but Winters have been getting colder for the past 3 years. I know this, because I have observed it. I work outside for part of my working week and have a set of acute senses. :lol:

Well I'll be delighted if it does in fact turn to be a cold winter.But it won't neccesarilly mean colder winters.Only last year did we have a average winter,which was colder than recent years but it was hardly a cold winter.The winter before was a very mild winter so I don't where you have got your "Winters have been getting colder for the past 3 years from".If the next 3 winters are colder than average then I will start to believe you but only time will tell.I must admit I'm a little more optimistic about this one than usual.

[drgl]

Well I'll be delighted if it does in fact turn to be a cold winter.But it won't neccesarilly mean colder winters.Only last year did we have a average winter,which was colder than recent years but it was hardly a cold winter.The winter before was a very mild winter so I don't where you have got your "Winters have been getting colder for the past 3 years from".If the next 3 winters are colder than average then I will start to believe you but only time will tell.I must admit I'm a little more optimistic about this one than usual.

Well that winter we had snowball fights on Christmas day!! I hate the word "average" it's useless with things like this. What IS average? Do you have a car with a trip computer? If you have look at what your average speed is over a 400 mile journey.....then you will see why average is pointless! The last three winters have seen a progressive incrase in cold & snow here,this year i'm not so sure-it already seems much wetter than previous years-has the atlantic come back to life after an 18 month lull? The next few months will tell.

[Essan]

Well, we've had the past 3 Winters.....if this Winter proves to turn out to be "cold", will you accept that this could be a trend towards colder Winters?

But if this winter is cold it's be the first one in over a decade ......

[mcweather]

Hi everyone. yet another interesting debate taking place here, and yet again kicked off by a snippet on TWO.

After 35 or so years of watching charts develop. One thing I have noticed is that particularly with winter charts things can change

very quickly, both from very promising to very poor as often seems to be the case but also conversely from not very good to bloomin marvellous from the cold and snow lovers point of view.

For those who can be bothered why not contrast and compare the historic charts on TWO for 27th Dec 2005 with those of Dec 23rd 1962and try spotting the differenc?

For those who those who can't let me tell you that they are extremely similar ( indeed almost indentical) with the UK trapped on the western side of a high pressure system place just a bit too far south over Scandinavia to bring us the severe cold that many on here hanker for. Yet one of these situations developed into the coldest winter for 260 years whilst the other fizzled into January nothingness and thats what makes it interesting.

One more observation as well, for genuine sustained cold and/or snowy conditions we need blocking to the North and East not just over Scandi.

[Dawlish]

Well that winter we had snowball fights on Christmas day!! I hate the word "average" it's useless with things like this. What IS average? Do you have a car with a trip computer? If you have look at what your average speed is over a 400 mile journey.....then you will see why average is pointless! The last three winters have seen a progressive incrase in cold & snow here,this year i'm not so sure-it already seems much wetter than previous years-has the atlantic come back to life after an 18 month lull? The next few months will tell.

We had a snowball fight on Christmas day last year! I'm hoping for the same again. Great fun!!

Paul

[Bham Chris]

Well last year on christmas day it will still fairly mild here with a high temperature of 7C. The sharp but brilliant cold spell did'nt begin until Boxing day in my neck of the woods.In 2004 we did have some snowfall on christmas day but only late at night,and quite frankly I don't think that winter deserved snowfall on that day due to the mildness of that particular winter.Hopefully will see some proper snowfall on the big day this time around.

Edited October 12, 2006 by Bham Chris