Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

 

 

TWO NEW SUNSPOTS: On Friday they didn't exist. On Saturday they are big sunspots. Today, sunspots AR1726 and AR1727 are rapidly emerging in the sun's northern hemisphere. The larger of the two, AR1726, contains nearly a dozen dark cores and spans 125,000 km from end to end. Click to view a 24-hour movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

AR1726 is the fastest-growing and, so far, the most active. It is crackling with C-class flares and seems capable of producing even stronger M-class eruptions. Because of the sunspot's central location on the solar disk, any explosions this weekend will be Earth-directed. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

 

BIG SUNSPOT BOOSTS ODDS FOR FLARES: The rapid growth of sunspot AR1726 continues. Invisible only two days ago, it is now a behemoth more than 150,000 km (a dozen Earth diameters) wide. A 48-hour movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the active region's development.

 

The sunspot has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-classflares. NOAA forecasters put the odds of an M-class eruption today at 10%, but that is probably an underestimate. AR1726 poses a growing threat for significant Earth-directed flares.

 

 

 

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

 

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

BIG SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1726 has developed a 'delta class' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. This has prompted NOAA forecasters to up the odds of M-class flares to 40% and X-class flares to 15% within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot's almost-central location on the solar disk, any eruptions today would likely be Earth-directed. 

The sunspot is more than a dozen times wider than Earth, which makes it an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. Amateur astronomer Dennis Simmons sends this picture, taken April 22nd, from Brisbane, Qld, Australia:

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited April 23, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

 

BIG SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1726 is turning away from Earth, but the threat of flares is not subsiding. The sunspot has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on April 25th. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Here Ole Salomonsen talks through how he develops and films his excellent time lapse videos, although it helps if you can speak German but there is some English in there , here's his latest video..

 

http://vimeo.com/64122803#

 

Since 2007, photographed Ole Salomonsen auroras in Tromso, Norway. His film "Polar Spirits" shows the extraordinary time-lapse images and movies. stern.de he tells how they developed

 

http://www.stern.de/wissen/natur/spektakulaerer-kurzfilm-wie-ein-norweger-die-polarlichter-einfaengt-2001868.html

Edited April 26, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

REPORT 

ON

SPACE WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEMS:

CURRENT CAPABILITIES AND 

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE NEXT DECADE

April 2013

Prepared by the 

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research 

National Space Weather Program Council

Joint Action Group for Space Environmental Gap Analysis

In response to a request by the 

Office of Science and Technology Policy 

Executive Office of the President

 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/spaceweather_2013_report.pdf

[Polar Maritime]

 

 

EDGE-ON SUNSPOT: Big sunspot AR1726 rotated off the Earthside of the sun this weekend, surmounting the west limb of the solar disk as it headed for the sun's farside. Amateur astronomer Harald Paleske of Langendorf, Germany, took the opportunity to photograph a sunspot, edge-on:

 

 

 

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of M-class solar flares today. The likely source would be sunspot AR1731, which is almost directly facing Earth. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

The next big freeze could last 250 years: Experts say Sun's activity wanes every 200 years - and the next 'cooling period' is due by 2040

• Russian scientists believe the Sun emits less heat every 200 years
• Cooling period could cause Earth's temperature to fall by several degrees
• Last time was between 1650 and 1850, known as the ‘Little Ice Age’
• The period of low solar activity could start between 2030 and 2040

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2316898/The-big-freeze-250-years-Experts-say-Suns-activity-wanes-200-years--cooling-period-2040.html#ixzz2RvhOIvj8 

[Polar Maritime]

DOUBLE FLARE THREAT: Two sunspots now facing Earth pose a threat for geoeffective flares. AR1731 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that habore energy for M-class flares, while AR1730 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field capable of unleashing even stronger X-class flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the growth of these sunspots over the past 48 hours. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of X-flares today, April 30th. Normally, X-flares are common around the peak of the solar cycle, yet there has not been a single X-flare all year. Perhaps we're overdue...

 

[Polar Maritime]

Activity starting to pick up now, are we heading for the 2nd peak...

CHANCE OF FLARES: Will May begin with a solar flare? Two sunspots (AR1730 and AR1731) have 'delta-class' magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters put the odds of an M-class solar flare today at 40%.Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

FARSIDE ERUPTION: Actually, May did begin with a solar flare--on the farside of the sun. An active region located behind the sun's eastern limb erupted during the early hours of May 1st, hurling a plume of red-hot debris into space: http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

 

A fantastic image from Canada early'er this morning..

Edited May 1, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

The very far North of Scoootland could have a chance of seeing Aurora this morning..

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Good morning. Solar activity is now at moderate levels thanks to an isolated M1.1 Solar Flare around Sunspot 1731 in the northern hemisphere. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery. It appears that a majority of the plasma cloud was directed north of the Sun-Earth field. http://solarham.net/

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

 

CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters have raised the odds of an M-class solar flare today to 45%. There are at least two sunspots capable of producing such an eruption: AR1730 and AR1731. Sunspot AR1731 is located near the center of the solar disk, so any eruptions from that one will be Earth-directed. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

BIG SUNSPOTS: The sun is peppered with several large sunspots. One of them, AR1731, has an unstable delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of M-flares and a 5% chance of X-flares on May 3rd.

Flare-threat AR1731 is circled in this picture of the sun rising over the Philippines on May 3rd: http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

 

The very far North of Scoootland could have a chance of seeing Aurora this morning..

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also A nice shot from  the Orkney Islands as predicted.. Taken by Alan Flett on May 1, 2013 @ Orkney Islands

 

 

Camera Used: NIKON CORPORATION NIKON D7000

Exposure Time: 100/10

Aperture: f/2.8

ISO: 1600

Date Taken: 2013:05:01 23:23:48

 

Edited May 3, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

 

 

 

 

An active region over the East limb just produced an M5.7 solar flare from sunspot number 1719 peaking at 17:32 in X-rays. Here is a snapshot of the flash in the SDO/AIA 131 angstrom camera showing us plasma at temperatures of around 20 million Kelvin. credit: NASA/SDO

 

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

 

 

GREAT HORNED SUNSPOT: Around the world, amateur astronomers are snapping pictures of behemoth sunspot AR1734 as it crosses the solar disk. In Buffalo, New York, photographer Alan Friedman noticed something when he rotated his picture 90 degrees. "Sunspot 1734 has a definite owlish look!"

"But who gives a hoot," he continued, "this grand active region looks fantastic from every perspective."

The owl could be poised to explode. Sunspot AR1734 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares, almost-certainly Earth-directed because the sunspot is facing our planet. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of M-flares on May 6th.

http://www.spaceweather.com/