Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[pottyprof]

Some believe that the solar max peaked last February to April. Weird stuff...

[Polar Maritime]

LAST AURORAS OF 2012? A medium-speed (~450 km/s) stream of solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 31st. This could spark geomagnetic disturbances around the poles. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for the last auroras of 2012. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

A prominence eruption is currently in progress off the northeast limb. Image by SDO.

Edited December 31, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Happy New Year ! A look back at last years solar activity, more to come this year i hope !

Solar activity continues to be very, low for solar max.

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

This is a very interesting read, and nice to hear NASA talking about the links to solar activity and our climate..

Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate "Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now."

http://science.nasa....jan_sunclimate/

Edited January 11, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

A near M-Class flare (C9.2) was detected early this morning around large Sunspot 1654. This region may produce a moderate to strong solar flare within the next 24 hours. Image by SDO/EVE.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Big sunspot AR1654 is crackling with C- and M-class solar flares, and it poses a threat for even stronger eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of X-flares today. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

Flares are illuminating the sunspot's magnetic canopy like flash bulbs at a rock concert; the phenomenon is evident in this 37-hour extreme ultraviolet movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Updated image of the visible solar disk on Sunday morning. Solar activity continues at moderate levels with low level impulsive M-Class flares detected around Sunspot 1652. There will remain a chance for moderate flare activity around both Sunspots 1652 and 1654. Region 1654 is now in a great position for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections.

From NOAA.

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1652 (N19W28) produced two M1 flares at 13/0050 and 0838 UTC. The second event was associated with Type II (est. speed 907 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Analysis will be conducted to determine if there is a CME associated as soon as imagery is available. The flare was impulsive in nature and is not expected to produce a proton event at this time, although forecasters will keep an eye out due to the regions location. Region 1654 is still the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk but has only produced

C-class activity during the period.

.Forecast...

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class flares for the next three days (13-15 Jan).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at

geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase slightly to moderate levels on days one and two (13-14 Jan) in response to a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to background levels on day three (15 Jan) as effects from the CH HSS wane. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...

The solar wind speed remained slightly elevated around 400 km/s while total magnetic field values held steady around 5 nT. The Bz component of the IMF varied between approximately +5 and - 5 nT. The phi angle remained positive and all indications are that the Earth is expected to be under the influence of a weak high speed stream from coronal hole 85.

.Forecast...

Solar wind speeds are expected to increase slightly on day one (13 Jan) in response to the onset of a CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are expected to begin to decrease on day two (14 Jan), and return to nominal levels on day three (15 Jan) as effects from the CH HSS wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

.Forecast...

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (13 Jan) with the onset of a CH HSS. A return to predominately quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (14-15 Jan) as effects from the CH HSS wane.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

Solar max on the way...? I tend to think it's been and gone, but I hope im wrong ! Who know's..

Edited January 15, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

CHANCE OF FLARES: So far today, solar activity is low. However, that could be the calm before the storm. The magnetic field of big sunspot AR1654 has grown more complex. It is now classified as a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field, which means it harbors energy for X-class eruptions. http://www.spaceweather.com/

The latest CME prediction released by the Goddard Space Flight Centre has a plasma cloud directed towards Earth with an impact expected by January 19th.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

INCOMING CME BOOSTS ODDS FOR AURORAS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% to 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 17th when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The impact could spark bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

Even before the CME's arrival, auroras are already arcing across the skies of northern Scandinavia. Entitle this photo Reflections:

Rune Bjørkli took the picture on January 15th from Porsanger, Norway. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

C5.8 flare earlyer...

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=UooaZR7Pr-s

Edited January 19, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

CME IMPACT + MICROBIAL LIGHTS: A coronal mass ejection hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 19th at approximately 17:15 UT. The weak impact did not trigger a full-fledged geomagnetic storm, but it did illuminate the Arctic Circle with auroras. Frank Olsen photographed the display from a beach in Sortland, Norway; scroll past his picture to learn about the glittering lights in the sand:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

NORTHERN LIGHTS: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Jan. 19th, producing Northern Lights so bright, they woke up the Arctic fox:

Vladimir Scheglov sends the picture from the Kupol mine in the Chukotka region of Russia. "The Kupol mine has banned hunting, so wild animals are not afraid of people," he explains.

More lights are possible on Jan. 23th when a negative-polarity solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the stream arrives. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Coast]

A gamma ray burst, the most powerful explosion known in the Universe, may have hit the Earth in the 8th Century.

In 2012 researchers found evidence that our planet had been struck by a blast of radiation during the Middle Ages, but there was debate over what kind of cosmic event could have caused this. Now a study suggests it was the result of two black holes or neutron stars merging in our galaxy. This collision would have hurled out vast amounts of energy. The research is published in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

Last year, a team of researchers found that some ancient cedar trees in Japan had an unusual level of a radioactive type of carbon known as carbon-14. In Antarctica, too, there was a spike in levels of a form of beryllium - beryllium-10 - in the ice. These isotopes are created when intense radiation hits the atoms in the upper atmosphere, suggesting that a blast of energy had once hit our planet from space. Using tree rings and ice-core data, researchers were able to pinpoint that this would have occurred between the years AD 774 and AD 775, but the cause of the event was a puzzle.

Gamma ray bursts were discovered in the 1960s by satellites designed to detect explosions from nuclear bombs on Earth

They are hundreds of times brighter than supernovae and about a million trillion times brighter than the Sun. Some gamma ray bursts have travelled over 13 billion light years, meaning they originated from some of the most distant objects ever detected

How do gamma ray bursts help scientists explore the ancient universe?

The possibility of a supernova - an exploding star - was put forward, but then ruled out because the debris from such an event would still be visible in telescopes today. Another team of US physicists recently published a paper suggesting that an unusually large solar flare from the Sun could have caused the pulse of energy. However some others in the scientific community disagree because they do not think that the energy produced would tally with the levels of carbon-14 and beryllium-10 found.

So now German researchers have offered up another explanation: a massive explosion that took place within the Milky Way. One of the authors of the paper, Professor Ralph Neuhauser, from the Institute of Astrophysics at the University of Jena, said: "We looked in the spectra of short gamma-ray bursts to estimate whether this would be consistent with the production rate of carbon-14 and beryllium-10 that we observed - and [we found] that is fully consistent."

These enormous emissions of energy occur when black holes, neutron stars or white dwarfs collide - the galactic mergers take just seconds, but they send out a vast wave of radiation. Prof Neuhauser said: "Gamma-ray bursts are very, very explosive and energetic events, and so we considered from the energy what would be the distance given the energy observed. A solar flare has also been put forward as the cause of the radiation

"Our conclusion was it was 3,000 to 12,000 light-years away - and this is within our galaxy." Although the event sounds dramatic, our medieval ancestors might not have noticed much. If the gamma-ray burst happened at this distance, the radiation would have been absorbed by our atmosphere, only leaving a trace in the isotopes that eventually found their way into our trees and the ice. The researchers do not think it even emitted any visible light.

Rare events

Observations of deep space suggest that gamma ray-bursts are rare. They are thought to happen at the most every 10,000 years per galaxy, and at the least every million years per galaxy. The gamma ray burst explanation is about 10,000 times less likely to be true†Prof Neuhauser said it was unlikely Planet Earth would see another one soon, but if we did, this time it could make more of an impact. If a cosmic explosion happened at the same distance as the 8th Century event, it could knock out our satellites. But if it occurred even closer - just a few hundred light-years away - it would destroy our ozone layer, with devastating effects for life on Earth. However, this, said Prof Neuhauser, was "extremely unlikely".

Commenting on the research, Professor Adrian Melott from the University of Kansas, US, said that although he thought a short gamma-ray burst was a possible conclusion, his group's research suggested that a solar flare was more likely based on observations of Sun-like stars in our galaxy. He said: "A solar proton event and a short gamma-ray burst are both possible explanations, but based on the rates that we know about in the Universe, the gamma-ray burst explanation is about 10,000 times less likely to be true in that time period."

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-21082617

[Polar Maritime]

SLIM CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of M-classsolar flares and a mere 1% chance of X-flares today. The probable source would be sunspot AR1660, which is almost directly facing Earth. Solar flare alerts: text,voice.

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS: Two long filaments of solar magnetism have erupted on the sun today, Jan. 23rd, hurling bright coronal mass ejections into space. This one passed directly in front of Mercury:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]