Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

Four C class flares today, solar activity has really picked up over the last week. And sunspots are also rising, now at 126.

[Polar Maritime]

HUMONGOUS ERUPTION: A truly gigantic explosion happened on the sun today. Magnetic fields snaking halfway across the sun's southern hemisphere erupted in tandem, producing a prominence so big, it doesn't fit inside this image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[pottyprof]

It's strange that we had a nearly blank northern hemisphere a couple of weeks ago and now there's the opposite.... Very strange maxima.

[Polar Maritime]

It's strange that we had a nearly blank northern hemisphere a couple of weeks ago and now there's the opposite.... Very strange maxima.

Yes it's certainly gone from one extreme to the other, What next i wonder ..?

[Methuselah]

And yet the WHO has estimated the 2003 European heatwave caused more than 15,000 excess deaths in France, Italy, and Portugal alone. Heat is also the biggest natural killer in the US. I don't agree with your other comment.

.

That chart makes a bit of a mockery out of sceptics' claims, in 2006, that Solar activity was at its highest level for 1,000 yrs?

[pottyprof]

That chart makes a bit of a mockery out of sceptics' claims, in 2006, that Solar activity was at its highest level for 1,000 yrs?

While at the same time, NASA scientists were forecasting things to get higher still...... I don't hear any sceptics revising their claim downwards....

[jonboy]

While at the same time, NASA scientists were forecasting things to get higher still...... I don't hear any sceptics revising their claim downwards....

Sorry guys not getting the 'sceptics revising their claim downwards' revising what downwards?

Nasa have forecast this cycle to be more active than it has been for a while. If you look at the laymans site they have predicted this cycle very well which to me demonstrates a better understanding. Thats why the link was posted as I got it from there.

I don't pretend to remotely understand the mechanics but am happy to believe the solar cycles are in decline and will have a significant inpact on our climate

[Polar Maritime]

[Methuselah]

Sorry guys not getting the 'sceptics revising their claim downwards' revising what downwards?

Nasa have forecast this cycle to be more active than it has been for a while. If you look at the laymans site they have predicted this cycle very well which to me demonstrates a better understanding. Thats why the link was posted as I got it from there.

I don't pretend to remotely understand the mechanics but am happy to believe the solar cycles are in decline and will have a significant inpact on our climate

Probably my fault, for not being clear enough...I meant that, a few years' back, AGW sceptics were claiming that the Sun was more active than at any time during the past 1,000 yrs...And that claim was incorrect.

What happens from now on in, however, is open to question.

[jethro]

Probably my fault, for not being clear enough...I meant that, a few years' back, AGW sceptics were claiming that the Sun was more active than at any time during the past 1,000 yrs...And that claim was incorrect.

What happens from now on in, however, is open to question.

You sure you're remembering that right Pete? I seem to remember the claims were that it had been more active in the 20th century. To claim a 1,000yrs, then a sceptic would have to overlook the MWP - the MWP and LIA were the corner stones of the idea that Solar activity was responsible for recent climate change.

[Methuselah]

You sure you're remembering that right Pete? I seem to remember the claims were that it had been more active in the 20th century. To claim a 1,000yrs, then a sceptic would have to overlook the MWP - the MWP and LIA were the corner stones of the idea that Solar activity was responsible for recent climate change.

Not really sure I can remember anything right, J. It was more likely one of those passing-through types...

[Polar Maritime]

M2 Flare early'er and CME, from near sunspot number 1619.

[Polar Maritime]

Another M flare...!

[Polar Maritime]

The far North of Scotland should see Aurora now.

Edited November 20, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Yet another M flare, thats 3 in 24hrs...

M-CLASS SOLAR FLARES: The magnetic canopy of big sunspot AR1618 is crackling with M-class solar flares. This image taken by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the extreme ultraviolet flash from one of them, an M1.6-class flare on Nov. 20th at 1928 UT:

This eruption, and another one like it about 7 hours earlier, might have propelled faint coronal mass ejections (CMEs) toward Earth. If so, the impacts would likely commence on Nov. 23rd, with a chance of high-latitude geomagnetic storms following their arrival. Stay tuned for updates.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

This vid is from the 2nd flare yesterday, updates on recent flare later..

[Polar Maritime]

Looks like Scotland got lucky last night..

Taken by Nicky Mack on November 20, 2012 @ Lossiemouth, Moray IV31 6QT

Edited November 21, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

CME heading our way for the 24th...

More info here on the last M flare.

[Polar Maritime]

Nice video from the 13th Nov Scotland :-)

http://vimeo.com/53886707

Another recent video, very nicely filmed.. Around 0.39 the show starts.

http://vimeo.com/53833233

Edited November 21, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

There goes another one ! That's 4 M flares in 24hrs...

The most recent was M3.5 from sunspot AR1618, which is directly facing earth.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Nov. 23rd when a pair of CMEs is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The incoming clouds were propelled toward Earth by the recent eruptions of sunspot AR1618. Black Friday might be tinged red and green by the glow of high-latitude auroras.

BIG SUNSPOT AR1618: The magnetic canopy of sunspot AR1618 is crackling withM-class solar flares, and NOAA forecasters say an X-flare could be in the offing. AR1618 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for the strongest eruptions. Any flares today would likely be Earth-directed as the sunspot is directly facing our planet. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Hopefully Northern Britain will see Aurora this weekend, with the possibility of two CME's hitting at the same time...

Here's a filament eruption from earlyer today.

[Polar Maritime]

The far North of Scotland should see Aurora now.

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

Edited November 23, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Taken by Nicky Mack on November 23, 2012 @ Lossiemouth Northern Scotland

[Polar Maritime]