Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

CME IMPACT: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 26th at approximately 0500 UT (Nov. 25th @ 9 PM PST). The relatively weak impact could spark minor geomagnetic storms in the hours ahead. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

LAST GASP: Decaying sunspot AR1618 (not to be confused with growing sunspot AR1620) erupted on Nov. 27th (1557 UT), producing a last-gasp solar flare ranking M1.6 on the Richter Scale of Flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

An M class and 2 very high C class flares over the last 24hrs..

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

Big M2.2 class flare last night, from sunspot 1620..

[Polar Maritime]

A strong C class flare early'er..

CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Nov. 30th when a coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

THE SCALE OF AMAZING: A slow but dense solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, igniting bright auroras around parts of the Arctic Circle. "Wow!" says Fredrik Broms of Kvaløya, Norway. "On the scale of amazing, the sky went from 0 to 100 in only five minutes." He took this picture on Dec. 1st:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

QUIET DAY: With all of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun in decay, solar activiy is low. NOAA forecasters estimate a slight 1% chance of X-flares and a 10% chance of M-flares during the next 24 hours. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

ANOTHER QUIET DAY: With all of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun in decay, solar activiy is low. NOAA forecasters estimate a slight 1% chance of strong solar flares during the next 24 hours. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

QUIET SUN: For the third day in a row, solar activity is very low. All of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun are quiet, leading NOAA forecasters to put the daily odds of strong flares at no more than 1%. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Gavin Hannah]

We could have zero sunspots in next day or so. Unable to see any new ones rotating into view.

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

ARCTIC LIGHTS: There was no geomagnetic storm last night, but around the Arctic Circle a geomagnetic storm is not required to produce auroras. Last night, photographer Mike Theiss was traveling along the Dempster Highway just north of Eagle Plains, Canada, when the sky erupted in color. The sign in the foreground marks the latitude of the Arctic Circle:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Solar activity continues to be very low.

All sunspot's are currently stable.

But there has been a proton event..

Edited December 17, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

PENT-UP ENERGY: Sunspots AR1633 and AR1635 have 'beta-gamma' magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class solar flares. Quiet since they appeared days ago, these sunspots nevertheless contain pent-up energy for significant eruptions.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

The sun has perked up a little over the last day or two, with a few mid/low C flares..

Lot's happening next year to look out for.

Edited December 26, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Beautiful images of active region AR11633 viewed by the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) onboard the Hinode spacecraft from the end of 26/12/2012 into the beginning of 27/12/2012. This video shows images of the active region in visible light. These images have around 10 times the spatial resolution of images from the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (Little SDO) in extreme ultraviolet light. Solar plasma can be seen moving along invisible magnetic field lines. Much like the loops in gold 171 Angstrom images from SDO but much more dynamic. credit: Hinode/SOT

Edited December 29, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: 2013 is only days away, and according to most forecasters, Solar Max should be approaching as well. But is it? Barely-increasing sunspot counts and anemic solar activity suggest an interesting possibility: Perhaps Solar Max is already here. This plot of measured vs. predicted sunspot numbers illustrates the idea:

The blue curve traces monthly sunspot numbers measured since 2000. The red curve is the prediction of the NOAA-led Solar Cycle Prediction Panel. So far, Solar Cycle 24 is underperforming even compared to the panel's low expectations.

There is still a strong chance that Cycle 24 will rebound and peak in 2013 as expected. It might even be a double-peaked cycle like the cycle before it. As 2013 nears only one thing is certain: we don't know what will happen. http://www.spaceweather.com/