Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Haley Puckle]

Ok, I don't know how sunspots are measured, but if it was a few hundred years ago, I'm sure todays image would be recorded as having 2 or 3. Not the 35 posted on http://www.spaceweather.com

Morning. It can be a confusing topic, and it took me a while to realise that the sunspot number is not the same as the number of sunspots 'http://www.solen.info/solar/ This is an interesting website with up to date info on sunspot numbers and how they arrive at the figures they do. This website also suggests Februrary 2012 as a 'possible' cycle 24 max based on a projection of the smoothed sunspot number (see monthly data table at bottom of page). It is of course too early to confirm this as the solar max since a sustained period of increased solar activity could easily see a spike in the smoothed sunspot number.

Edited November 5, 2012 by Haley Puckle

[Gavin Hannah]

Well the sun is certainly in snooze mode. The sunspots that are visible on the sun are just minuscule specks compared with a solar max sunspot. I do think, if I was going on gut instinct, that we have indeed passed solar max as mentioned above.

[Polar Maritime]

The sun is very quite for solar max, all the experts are going for a Feb peak max so we will see what happens over the next few months. November was called by many to be a quite month anyway...

A small C flare has just puffed out...

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YEocpbC6a0&feature=plcp

Edited November 5, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

A closer look at the C2.3 Flare off the South/East limb this afternoon by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

Edited November 5, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

SO THIS IS SOLAR MAXIMUM? Forecasters have long expected the Solar Max of 2013 to be the weakest of the Space Age. It might be even weaker than they thought. As shown in this 20-year plot of sunspot counts vs. time, the sun is underperforming:

Sunspot numbers are notoriously variable, so the actual counts could rapidly rise to meet or exceed the predicted curve. For now, however, the face of the sun is devoid of large sunspots, and there have been no strong flares in more than a week. The threshold of Solar Max looks a lot like Solar Min. NOAA forecasters estimate no more than a 1% chance of X-class solar flares in the next 24 hours.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 73 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number (for 2012/02) is already nearly 67 due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. We are currently well over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

Also note that the "Boulder" numbers reported daily at www.spaceweather.com are typically about 35% higher than the International sunspot number. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

Edited November 6, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[jonboy]

A spotless day according to the Layman's site which uses methods of counting similsr to that used during the last grand minimum.

We may have already rach maximum and are on our way to a prolonged period of quiet sun activity. What will this mean perhaps a more pronounced southerly jet?

[Polar Maritime]

A spotless day according to the Layman's site which uses methods of counting similsr to that used during the last grand minimum.

We may have already rach maximum and are on our way to a prolonged period of quiet sun activity. What will this mean perhaps a more pronounced southerly jet?

The sun has been very quiet for some considerable time now, the process started around 4 years ago, with at times a spotless sun. This coincided with the jet streams driving further south. Recent research suggests a quiet sun influences the course of the jet streams, there have been a few burst of sunspot activity recently, but these are well below the normal. The sun should be nearing its 11 year maximum cycle now, but this is not happening, It could be we are just entering a phase similar to the "Maunder Minimum" which took place around 1645 to 1715, this was a period when there were many intensely cold winters and cool wet summers over the northern hemisphere.

[Gavin Hannah]

The sun has been very quiet for some considerable time now, the process started around 4 years ago, with at times a spotless sun. This coincided with the jet streams driving further south. Recent research suggests a quiet sun influences the course of the jet streams, there have been a few burst of sunspot activity recently, but these are well below the normal. The sun should be nearing its 11 year maximum cycle now, but this is not happening, It could be we are just entering a phase similar to the "Maunder Minimum" which took place around 1645 to 1715, this was a period when there were many intensely cold winters and cool wet summers over the northern hemisphere.

It's hard to argue against what is starring us in the face, literally. The winters of 09/10 and 10/11 were during a solar minimum and the next set of solar cycles are expected to see pretty much a long continued solar minimum with subsequent maximums blending in with the minimums. Interesting times lie ahead.

With the exception of the white numbers, this is petty much what the sun looked like during those last winters.

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days

2012 total: 0 days (0%)

2011 total: 2 days (<1%)

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

It can't be long until we reach zero sunspots? As mentioned, the Laymans count has already recorded a zero spot count.

http://spaceweather.com

Edited November 6, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Polar Maritime]

[jonboy]

The laymans sunspot count has for the second day called the sun spotless

[Polar Maritime]

An M1.7 Flare a few hours ago, from a new sunspot off the N/E limb... Solar activity is now at moderate levels after a very quite few weeks.

[Polar Maritime]

M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The week-long spell of solar quiet was broken this morning, Nov. 8th, when a new sunspot unleashed an M1.7-class flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme UV flash:

Because of the blast site's location on the sun's northeastern limb, Earth was not in the line of fire. It will take about a week for this new active region to turn squarely toward our planet. Stay tuned for updates as the chance of geoeffective flares increases in the days ahead.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[jonboy]

Intrestingly on the laymans site today after 3 spotless days we have a low sunspot count. More interestingly they had called for a dalton type minimum to this and following cycles however they are now suggesting it is likely to be a maunder type which was deeper and longer. People need to get used to the idea of a colder northern hemisphere winters

[Polar Maritime]

M class flare last night, from a new region coming over the N/E limb. Solar activity picking up now, with more flares yesterday than in the last 10 days alone.

Also...

INCOMING CMES: A pair of minor CMEs is heading for Earth. They were launched on Nov. 9th and 10th, respectively, and are expected to merge into a single cloud before they reach our planet on Nov. 12th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of polar geomagnetic storms in the next 48 hours.http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

INCOMING CMES: A pair of minor CMEs is heading for Earth. They were launched on Nov. 9th and 10th, respectively, and are expected to merge into a single cloud before they reach our planet on Nov. 12th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of polar geomagnetic storms in the next 24 to 48 hours. http://www.spaceweather.com/

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nu_hVVO4JM4&feature=plcp

Edited November 11, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

M2.0 flare from active region 1613.

http://solarham.net/

Edited November 13, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Wow as you can see from the above chart ^^ 2 more M class flares M6.0 last night , activity really picking up now... lot's of active sunspots now facing earth.

Here's the 3 M class flares from region 1613.

CME IMPACT: An interplanetary shock wave (probably the leading edge of a CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 12th at approximately 2300 UT, filling skies over northern Scandinavia with bright auroras. Oskar Pettersson sends this picture from Luleå, Sweden:

http://www.spaceweather.com/ Edited November 13, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

Scotland should see Aurora now..

Plus another M flare just !

http://solarham.net/xray.htm

Edited November 13, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[shuggee]

Magnetometer barely registering, but Bz nicely negative. Possible sightings, further north than the Central Belt would help and of course it's chucking it down here...

[Polar Maritime]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A moderately strong (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm is underway on Nov. 13th as Earth passes through the wake of a CME that swept past our planet yesterday. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Shot's taken by the Eoropie Tea Room on the Isle of Lewis, off the NW Scottish coast.

[Northernlights]

Scotland should see Aurora now..

Plus another M flare just !

http://solarham.net/xray.htm

Too cloudy here at that time .Thanks for the alert.

[Polar Maritime]

SUBSIDING STORM: Last night, Nov. 13/14, Northern Lights spilled across the Canadian border into the United States during a moderately strong (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm. Spotters report bright auroras over Michigan, the Dakotas,Wisconsin, and Minnesota. The storm, which is subsiding now, flared up as Earth passed through the wake of a CME that swept past our planet on Nov. 13th.

Satellite data show that the most intense auroras were located over Northern Europe. Photographer Ole C. Salomonsen sends this picture from Tromsø, Norway:More auroras could be in tthe offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of strong geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[pottyprof]

Satellite data show that the most intense auroras were located over Northern Europe.

There were a couple of German stations working the aurora on the 2m amateur radio band last night. Makes for an interesting listening session because of the way the aurora changes the way a signal sounds.

This isn't a recording of last night but it's a good example of how the signal is heard.

aurora.mp3