Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

SPOTTED SUN: With nine sunspot groups peppering the solar disk, the sunspot number is surging. Each of the circles in this April 8th image from the Solar Dynamics Observatory contains an active region:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Don]

Hmm, just in time for next Winter!

[karyo]

Hmm, just in time for next Winter!

What do you mean?

Karyo

[jonboy]

Many think that solar max has passed and what we are seeing is one of the upticks as we start the slide down to minimum

[Don]

What do you mean?

Karyo

I meant that it might not bode too well to have high solar activity in the run up to and through Winter (if you want cold), but it was a bit of a tongue in cheek comment anyway and it's just a forecast at this stage.

[jonboy]

As you can see from the graph below for the forcasts of max late this year early next to be right then we need to see a significant uptick in activity which would be unusal given length of time from previous high point of the cycle to date

[karyo]

^{I see what you mean.}

^{Well, even with a slight increase in current activity, the sun is still not particularly active. We had more active periods in the last year or so.}

^Karyo

[Polar Maritime]

As you can see from the graph below for the forcasts of max late this year early next to be right then we need to see a significant uptick in activity which would be unusal given length of time from previous high point of the cycle to date

But with this being the middle of a double peak the up tick will be much faster than that of a normal Solar Max, It will certainly be interesting to see how strong the second peak will be.. Was the 1st peak not around winter 09/10?

Anyhoo here's some good viewing.. http://astrofotograf...raborealis.html

Edited April 10, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

DOUBLE-BARRELED SUNSPOTS: Earth is staring down a double-barreled threat for solar flares--that is, sunspots AR1718 and AR1719. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the pair during the early hours of April 10th:

Each of these sunspots has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy forM-class flares. Of the two, AR1718 appears more likely to erupt. It is growing rapidly and is already crackling with lesser C-class flares. Any explosions today will be Earth-directed. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[jonboy]

But with this being the middle of a double peak the up tick will be much faster than that of a normal Solar Max, It will certainly be interesting to see how strong the second peak will be.. Was the 1st peak not around winter 09/10?Anyhoo here's some good viewing.. http://astrofotograf...raborealis.html

But with this being the middle of a double peak the up tick will be much faster than that of a normal Solar Max, It will certainly be interesting to see how strong the second peak will be.. Was the 1st peak not around winter 09/10?Anyhoo here's some good viewing.. http://astrofotograf...raborealis.html

Edited April 11, 2013 by jonboy

[Polar Maritime]

WOW...

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

The proton event early'er was coursed by the recent M6 Flare.

 

Edited April 12, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[lorenzo]

Beauty of a pic from the Camilla SDO folks

 

This flare is classified as an M6.5 flare, some ten times less powerful than the strongest flares, which are labeled X-class flares. M-class flares are the weakest flares that can still cause some space weather effects near Earth. This flare produced a radio blackout that has since subsided. The blackout was categorized as an R2 on a scale between R1 and R5 on NOAA’s space weather scales.

This is the strongest flare seen so far in 2013. Increased numbers of flares are quite common at the moment, since the sun's normal 11-year activity cycle is ramping up toward solar maximum, which is expected in late 2013. Humans have tracked this solar cycle continuously since it was discovered, and it is normal for there to be many flares a day during the Sun's peak activity.

 

[john pike]

Space Weather Alerts

 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

 

certainly the sun has woken up for now

[Polar Maritime]

MINOR RADIATION STORM: Energetic solar protons are flying past Earth today. The particles were accelerated in our direction by the M6-class flare of April 11th (see below). They can be seen hitting and speckling the detector of the SOHO spacecraft in this movie of the explosion (labeled image). NOAA ranks the ongoing radiation storm as S1, which is considered a minor event.  http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

M3.3 flare from around sunspot 1718..

 

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

INCOMING SOLAR STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading for Earth, due to arrive on April 13th. NOAA forecasters estimate a a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms, so high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

 

This is the CME, leaving the sun at 600 miles per second on April 11th:

 

 

 

The CME was propelled into space by an M6-class eruption in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR1719. SOHO photographed the expanding cloud using an onboardcoronagraph. Speckles near the end of the movie are caused by energetic solar protons hitting the coronagraph's CCD detector.

Note that although the CME appears to hit Mars and Venus, there is no actual physical contact. The cloud is merely passing in front of the two planets.

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

CME IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) swept past Earth on April 13th around 22:55 UT. The impact rattled Earth's magnetic field and induced electrical currents in the ground around the Arctic Circle. Rob Stammes recorded the effects of the impact from a geophysical monitoring station at the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway:

"On my instruments there was a clear sugnature of the incoming coronal mass ejection," says Stammes. "The impact was not as strong as expected, but there were nice variations on my magnetometer and ground current instruments. There were also Northern Lights."

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[pottyprof]

Given the bit of hype on a few sites, it was rather poor in it's effect.

[Polar Maritime]

Some very nice work here..

 

http://vimeo.com/64122803

[Polar Maritime]

FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT: Two days ago, sunspot AR1723 did not exist. Now it sprawls nearly 100,000 km (8 Earth-diameters) across the sun's southern hemisphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring the sunspot's rapid expansion:

 

 

 

AR1723 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. If the magnetic field is changing as quickly as the underlying sunspot, it could become unstable and explode. Stay tuned for updates, as Earth would be in the line of fire. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited April 17, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]