Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

Very bright sky to NNW tonight.  Is there anything going on?

 

No Aurora last night in this part of the world Rainy... Sunspot activity is picking up so expect some decent flares over the next few weeks, a large group of sunspots is gaining energy and rotating towards Earth, so fingers crossed.

 

SUNSPOT METAMORPHASIS: Behemoth sunspot AR1785 is undergoing a dramatic metamorphasis, changing shape by the hour as it turns toward Earth. This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the action on July 6-7:

 

One thing hasn't changed: the sprawling sunspot group has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. Moreover, the shape-shifting of AR1785 could lead to explosive instabilities in the sunspot's magnetic canopy. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-class solar flares and a 10% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited July 7, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

BIG SUNSPOT FACES EARTH: Colossal sunspot AR1785 is now directly facing Earth. The active region has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares, yet so far the sunspot has been mostly quiet. Could it be the calm before the storm? NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on July 8th. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

Sprawling more than 11 Earth-diameters from end to end, AR1785 is one of the biggest sunspots of the current solar cycle. In fact, it can barely fit on the screen. Click on the dark core below to see a complete hi-res picture taken by Christian Viladrich of Nattages, France: http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

CONTINUED MINOR STORMING: Fitful geomagnetic storms are underway as Earth passes through the wake of a CME that arrived on July 9th. For the second day in a row, auroras have been sighted in New Zealand, Canada, and several northern-tier US states. "I just got my camera set up in time to capture this sudden outburst of magenta with blue," reports Brad Dwight of Modale, Iowa: http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A minor geomagnetic storm is in progress on July 14-15. The cause of the disturbance is a CME that swept past Earth on July 13th. The CME's impact was gentle, but the CME's wake is unsettling the geomagnetic field. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

Michel Tournay of James Bay, Canada was outside on on July 14 when the sky turned as green as the trees:

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

CORONAL HOLE: Opening up like a zipper almost a million kilometers long, a vast coronal hole has appeared in the sun's northern hemisphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory took this picture of the UV-dark chasm on July 18th:

Coronal holes are places in the sun's upper atmosphere where the magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. A broad stream of solar wind flowing from this particular coronal hole should reach Earth on July 19-20.

In addition, NOAA forecasters say a CME could hit Earth's magnetic field late on July 18th. The combined impact of the CME and the incoming solar wind stream could cause some stormy space weather around Earth in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on July 19-20. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

 

CHANCE OF STORMS: A stream of high-speed solar wind is blowing past Earth. So far the low-density stream is doing little to spark geomagnetic storms. This could change, however, with a shift in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). A south-pointing IMF would allow this fast wind into Earth's magnetosphere, possibly sparking bright auroras. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on July 20th. http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

 A long duration C3.1 flare was detected around Sunspot 1800.

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

FARSIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar activity has been low for more than a week. A pair of explosions on the farside of the sun have broken the quiet. During the late hours of July 29th, a southern magnetic filament and a northern sunspot erupted in quick succession, producing a pair of CMEs. The sunspot is circled in this full-sun UV image taken by the STEREO-SDO fleet on July 30th:

The active region is only 2-3 days away from rotating onto the Earthside of the sun. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

 

[Polar Maritime]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A minor (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm is in progress as Earth enters a stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole on the sun. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Crepuscular Ray]

NASA press release with a forecast that the Sun's magnetic field is about to flip within the next few months, signalling that solar maximum is imminient:

 

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/05aug_fieldflip/

 

I'm a bit confused: they say that the northen hemisphere has already changed polarity, but it still appears on Soho magnetograms to be the oppostie way round to the southern hemisphere. Any clues anyone? Or am I being thick? (Answers on a postcard...)

Edited August 5, 2013 by Crepuscular Ray

[Polar Maritime]

NASA press release with a forecast that the Sun's magnetic field is about to flip within the next few months, signalling that solar maximum is imminient:

 

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/05aug_fieldflip/

 

I'm a bit confused: they say that the northen hemisphere has already changed polarity, but it still appears on Soho magnetograms to be the oppostie way round to the southern hemisphere. Any clues anyone? Or am I being thick? (Answers on a postcard...)

 

 

MAGNETIC FIELD REVERSAL ON THE SUN: It hasn't happened yet, but it's about to. Data from NASA-supported observatories show that the sun's global magnetic field will flip before the end of 2013. The reversal, which signals the arrival of Solar Maximum, will have ripple effects felt throughout the solar system. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Don]

 

MAGNETIC FIELD REVERSAL ON THE SUN: It hasn't happened yet, but it's about to. Data from NASA-supported observatories show that the sun's global magnetic field will flip before the end of 2013. The reversal, which signals the arrival of Solar Maximum, will have ripple effects felt throughout the solar system. http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

A potential fly in the ointment for Winter 2013/14?

[Polar Maritime]

A potential fly in the ointment for Winter 2013/14?

 

With this being a very weak Solar Max, a quiet Sun has usually led to colder Winters as history shows, so we shall see.. 

 

SOLAR ECLIPSE IN SPACE: This morning the new Moon passed in front of the sun, off-center, producing a partial solar eclipse. The only place to see it was from space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) photographed the eclipse from geosynchronous orbit approximately 36,000 km above Earth's surface: http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

Behold, the Clearest Photo of a Sunspot Ever Taken

 

 

The unprecedented view was recently released by scientists at Big Bear Solar Observatory in the mountains of East L.A. Imaged by the New Solar Telescope (aka the "NST"), the photograph is among the first to be captured by the NST's newly equippedVisible Imaging Spectrometer (VIS). It is the new record-holder for most detailed sunspot ever obtained in visible light (the outgoing champion was also photographed by the NST back in 2010). The 1.6-meter telescope, despite its name, has been making observations for close to five years now.  http://io9.com/behold-the-clearest-photo-of-a-sunspot-ever-taken-1054493465

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

A C8.4 Flare last night, from Sunspot 1817 in the Southern Hemisphere..

 

[Polar Maritime]

 

 

SOLAR FLARES: After weeks of quiet, solar activity is picking up. New sunspot AR1817 is crackling with C- and M-class solar flares. An M1.5-class eruption on August 12th (1041 UT) created a wave of ionization in the upper atmosphere above Europe and might have hurled a coronal mass ejection toward Earth.http://www.spaceweather.com/