Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

 

 

More like cycle 5 which was the start of the Dalton Minimun

 

Since cycle 14 according to this...http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

Edited September 10, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[laserguy]

Are we all going to die??

[Polar Maritime]

Are we all going to die??

 

Not yet, be patient Barry 

Edited September 10, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[karyo]

Any predictions for cycle 25?

 

Karyo

[Polar Maritime]

ALMOST-BLANK SUN: 2013 is supposed to be a year of solar maximum. Indeed, the sun's magnetic field is 

, a long-held sign that Solar Max has arrived. But if this is Solar Max, it looks a lot like Solar Min. The face of the sun is almost completely blank:

A careful inspection of the solar disk reveals only two sunspots, very small and quiet. NOAA forecasters estimate no more than a 1% chance of M- or X-classflares during the next 24 hours.

In fact, this is Solar Max, the weakest one in more than 50 years. Long spells of quiet and spotlessness are punctuated by occasional flares and CMEs. At least one researcher believes the ongoing maximum is actually double-peaked, and we are now experiencing the valley between peaks. If so, a surge in solar activity could be in the offing in late-2013 and 2014. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[jonboy]

 

Any predictions for cycle 25? Karyo

 Lower than the present cycle but no doubt NASA will say otherwise

[jonboy]

 

Since cycle 14 according to this...http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

 

Looks more like cycle 5 from this link

http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24_1.png

[karyo]

Thank you Jonboy.

By the way, I am starting to doubt this double peak that some researchers believe as the sun is quiter than it has been for many months.

Karyo

[jonboy]

 

Thank you Jonboy.By the way, I am starting to doubt this double peak that some researchers believe as the sun is quiter than it has been for many months.Karyo

 I agree Karyo I believe we are past solar max and its down hill from here. I believe it is likely to be 20/30 years before we see the sunspot activity anything like this past solar max

[karyo]

  I agree Karyo I believe we are past solar max and its down hill from here. I believe it is likely to be 20/30 years before we see the sunspot activity anything like this past solar max

Edited September 11, 2013 by karyo

[karyo]

Somehow the work computer doesn't let me reply so ignore the above quote.

What I was saying jonboy is that what you say sounds good to me and I hope you are right!

Karyo

[Yarmy]

Is it me or are they determined to prevent a spotless day by counting every tiny spec on the surface of the sun?

 

Karyo

 

 

They count every speck because that's the right way to do it. A factor of 0.6 is applied to the raw count to calibrate it back to the original Wolf method (who didn't count small spots). The factor was arrived at after about 16 years of observation overlap with Wolf's assistant Wolfer who (correctly) counted every spot he could see using his own telescope. The factor obviously depended on Wolf himself (his eyesight, telescope, etc) and since he is dead it can now never be measured.

 

In general though the historic SSN record is wrong and needs adjusting. This paper explains why and what needs to be done to resolve it:

 

http://www.leif.org/research/IAUS286-Mendoza-Svalgaard.pdf

[karyo]

Yes Yarmy, but what about the tiny sunspots that were getting missed in the past? This is what makes any comparisons of this quiet cycle with past ones rather tricky!

Karyo

[Cheshire Freeze]

Given what we've seen historically, (if the next cycle is as low as some people are expecting), we could be in for quite a climatic change over the next 20-50 years.

[jonboy]

 

They count every speck because that's the right way to do it. A factor of 0.6 is applied to the raw count to calibrate it back to the original Wolf method (who didn't count small spots). The factor was arrived at after about 16 years of observation overlap with Wolf's assistant Wolfer who (correctly) counted every spot he could see using his own telescope. The factor obviously depended on Wolf himself (his eyesight, telescope, etc) and since he is dead it can now never be measured.

 

In general though the historic SSN record is wrong and needs adjusting. This paper explains why and what needs to be done to resolve it:

 

http://www.leif.org/research/IAUS286-Mendoza-Svalgaard.pdf

 

There are those that believe that this overcounts the modern sunspots especially when there is a high speck count as present. The present method would have us believe that the present cycle is more active than it actually is. I attach a brief history of sunspot counting that I have copied from the Layman's Sunspot Site. Personally I hold more store from what Geoff Sharp has to say than Svalgaard. Its no good just saying that the old methods were wrong as in those early days they had neither the resource or technology and as such I believe you should not alter these old records to suit modern techniques but if anything you should alter present readings to match old thechniques.

Counting Sunspots.docx

[Yarmy]

 

 

There are those that believe that this overcounts the modern sunspots especially when there is a high speck count as present. The present method would have us believe that the present cycle is more active than it actually is. I attach a brief history of sunspot counting that I have copied from the Layman's Sunspot Site. Personally I hold more store from what Geoff Sharp has to say than Svalgaard. Its no good just saying that the old methods were wrong as in those early days they had neither the resource or technology and as such I believe you should not alter these old records to suit modern techniques but if anything you should alter present readings to match old thechniques.

Counting Sunspots.docx

 

That is what the whole paper is about though. There is a small army of solar physicists involved in an ongoing project to get the numbers right:

 

http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Home

[Yarmy]

Yes Yarmy, but what about the tiny sunspots that were getting missed in the past? This is what makes any comparisons of this quiet cycle with past ones rather tricky!Karyo

 

That's why the k-factor was introduced! Did you read the paper? The exact telescope that Wolf used is still being used today to do counts.

[jonboy]

 

That is what the whole paper is about though. There is a small army of solar physicists involved in an ongoing project to get the numbers right:

 

http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Home

 

I don't diagree that it needs soughting out just that I prefer the Layman's Sunspot count method as I personally believe it reflects better with the older record. If all agreed we would not be discussing whether the present cycle was nearer cycle 5 or 14.

Not enough is known about what drives the sun's cycles so it does become difficult to predict how each cycle will span out but there is some interesting research around how the planets of the solar system may impact on the sun and the level of activity we see.

I personally believe that this is going to be key in understanding our climate cycles which will eventually lead us to be able to determine what and by how much we may or maynot impact on that cycle

[Yarmy]

  I don't diagree that it needs soughting out just that I prefer the Layman's Sunspot count method as I personally believe it reflects better with the older record. If all agreed we would not be discussing whether the present cycle was nearer cycle 5 or 14.Not enough is known about what drives the sun's cycles so it does become difficult to predict how each cycle will span out but there is some interesting research around how the planets of the solar system may impact on the sun and the level of activity we see.I personally believe that this is going to be key in understanding our climate cycles which will eventually lead us to be able to determine what and by how much we may or maynot impact on that cycle

 

I believe the records for SC5 are very sparse, so it's hard to compare really. It looks likely that we are heading into a Maunder-style grand minimum though, and I expect SC25 to be very weak. We'll find out what that means for the climate in the next few decades.

[joggs]

With the sun having a big kip in the next 20 years or so and the pdo in cold phase soon to be followed by the amo, i know where my bets are going........

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

ALL QUIET ALERT: With the Sun's disk almost completely devoid of sunspots, solar flare activity has come to a halt. Measurements by NOAA's GOES 15 satellite show that the sun's global x-ray emission, a key metric of solar activity, has flatlined:

The quiet is unlikely to break this weekend. NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of M- or X-class solar flares during the next 24-48 hours.

The quiet spell is a bit strange because 2013 is supposed to be a year of solar maximum, with lots of flares and sunspots. Supporting this view are data from NASA-supported observatories which show that the sun's magnetic field is poised to flip--a long-held sign that Solar Max has arrived. Nevertheless, solar activity is low.

One possible explanation is that 

 and we are in the valley between peaks. If so, solar activity could surge again in late 2013-2014. No one can say for sure, though. Researchers have been studying sunspots for more than 400 years, and we still cannot predict the behavior of the solar cycle. Continued quiet or stormy space weather? Both are possible in the weeks and months ahead.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[pottyprof]

Another likely explanation is that NASA and NOAA haven't got a clue what it's doing.  The original peak was supposed to have been last year (2012) when activity suddenly picked up but then dropped off.  Then they decided it was a double peak when activity suddenly picked up earlier this year...  What are they planning on?  A triple peak?

 

Their assessment was probably right when a few years ago they said in a live netcast "well actually we've just discovered we don't know as much about the sun as we thought we did".

 

One of the poles has changed polarity but the other stubbornly hangs on to what it has had for the last decade or so.....

[Polar Maritime]

LONELY SUNSPOT, QUIET SUN: The sunspot number has dropped to its lowest level of the year. Solitary sunspot AR1841 sits all alone at the center of an otherwise blank solar disk. It is quiet and poses no threat for strong flares:

NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of M- or X-class solar flares during the next 24-48 hours. If the forecast holds, the sun will continue a spate of deep quiet that has lasted for more than a week, nearly-flatlining the sun's x-ray output.http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Yarmy]

And such weedy spots. Anyway, longest run of sub-100 10.7cm solar flux since July 2011. A fair way to go in the cycle yet though:

 

 

 

New Scientist article on the question of how sunspots should be counted:

 

http://www.leif.org/research/NS-Sept-2013-Sunspots.pdf

Edited September 17, 2013 by Yarmy