Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

SOLAR MINI-MAX: NASA and NOAA agree: Solar Max has arrived, but this "mini Max" is not like any other solar maximum of the Space Age

 

[Polar Maritime]

Solar activity remains high. Active sunspot AR2087 unleashed another X-flare on June 11th (X1.0).

 

 

Thought I would pop this in as I never get bored of Carl Segan...

 

Edited June 12, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Solar Activity remains high with 7 M class flares in the last 24hrs..  Also a long duration M3.1 flare last night from around region 2080.

Edited June 13, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

During the early hours of June 27th, a series of bright CMEs billowed over the sun's northern limb. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the blasts: http://spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

BROODING GIANT: Big sunspot AR2104, which emerged over the weekend, has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. http://spaceweather.com/

[Yarmy]

A Solar Show with Mixed Reviews

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/01/science/a-solar-show-with-mixed-reviews.html?_r=0

 

“This was very unusual,†Dr. Dikpati said. “If they would have overlapped, it would have been a strong cycle.â€

Edited July 2, 2014 by Yarmy

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Yarmy]

The recent surge in activity suggests this cycle has some life in it yet despite predictions of its demise. It is not unlike Solar Cycle 14 which was drawn out and had several peaks:

 

[Polar Maritime]

VERY SPOTTED SUN: Analysts have declared Solar Cycle 24 a "Mini Max" because the ongoing peak in solar activity is so much less intense than other solar cycles of the Space Age. However, today's sunspot count is anything but mini. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this picture of multiple large sunspot groups sprawled across the face of the sun on July 5th:

 

http://spaceweather.com/

Edited July 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

FLARE PROBABILITIES TICK UPWARDS: For the second day in a row, the odds of a powerful flare have increased. NOAA forecasters now estimate a 70% chance of M-flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on July 8th. http://spaceweather.com/

[Gael_Force]

A prediction of a very low SSN for the next minimum.

 

http://www.hindawi.com/journals/aa/2014/815065/

[Polar Maritime]

Active Region 2113 has popped a M6.5-class Solar Flare.

 

[Polar Maritime]

The most recent space weather summary and forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov. note: The video was produced just before AR12113 gave us 2 solar eruptions. 

 

Edited July 9, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Yarmy]

A prediction of a very low SSN for the next minimum.

 

http://www.hindawi.com/journals/aa/2014/815065/

 

That's badly in need of a proper translation. Figure 1 is almost certainly wrong (the SSN workshop says a good rule of thumb is to increase SSN prior to 1945 by about 20%. See http://www.leif.org/research/NS-Sept-2013-Sunspots.pdf) Presumably therefore so is the Gumbel distribution calculation. I do think the next solar cycle will be weak though.

[Polar Maritime]

INCOMING CME, GLANCING BLOW POSSIBLE: Earth could receive a glancing blow from a CME on July 13th. It comes from a magnetic filament that erupted from the sun's northern hemisphere on July 9th and hurled part of itself into space. Minor geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives. Follow the action@spaceweatherman.

[Polar Maritime]

GROWING QUIET: The odds of an Earth-directed solar flare are plummeting as sunspots AR2108 and AR2109 rotate over over the sun's western limb. The departure of these two active regions leaves the face of the sun almost blank. Solar activity should remain low for the next 24-48 hours. http://spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

BLANK SUN: Ten days ago, the sun was peppered with large spots. Now it is nearly blank. This image taken on July 15th by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a solar disk almost completely devoid of dark cores:

Long-time readers absorbing this image might be reminded of 2008-2009, years when the sun plunged into the deepest solar minimum in a century. The resemblance, however, is only superficial. Underneath the visible surface of the sun, the solar dynamo is still churning out knots of magnetism that will soon bob to the surface to make sunspots. Solar Max is not finished.

 

http://spaceweather.com/

[Yarmy]

Given the prediction of declining 10.7cm flux over the next few days...

 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/daypre.txt

 

...it seems possible, likely even, that we will get out first spotless day since August 2011. 

 

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Monthly

 

"...it is perfectly possible that an isolated spotless day can be produced during the maximum period of a moderate to low amplitude SC. In this respect, the spotless day of 14 August 2011 is nothing extraordinary."

 

If it happens, it'll be the first after solar max for cycle 24, so perhaps noteworthy for that if nothing else.

[Buriedundersnow]

there were predictions done by scientists saying that once solar max was over the sun spot count could very well drop through the floor and could see the sun going back to spotless states before the end of this year even possibly extended spells with no spots I watched it on a video posted in the regional thread through the winter

 

sunspot count only on 25 today with very little on the visible disk

 

Daily Sun: 16 Jul 14

None of these small sunspots poses a threat for geoeffective solar flares. Solar activity is low. Credit: SDO/HMI
 

Sunspot number: 25  

 

sometimes you think they are just looking for something that may be there just so it isn't spotless and don't know if its just me or if others may think this but did the spot counts for this max look pretty high for what was on the visible disk.
 

Edited July 16, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Yarmy]

there were predictions done by scientists saying that once solar max was over the sun spot count could very well drop through the floor and could see the sun going back to spotless states before the end of this year even possibly extended spells with no spots I watched it on a video posted in the regional thread through the winter

 

sunspot count only on 25 today with very little on the visible disk

 

Daily Sun: 16 Jul 14

None of these small sunspots poses a threat for geoeffective solar flares. Solar activity is low. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

Sunspot number: 25  

 

sometimes you think they are just looking for something that may be there just so it isn't spotless and don't know if its just me or if others may think this but did the spot counts for this max look pretty high for what was on the visible disk.

 

 

Who knows? But I do think that's unlikely. The charts here:

 

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html#RSC24

 

...all suggest we have a way to go before there is a really significant decline.

[jonboy]

Well today the count on spaceweather is 11 and as they themselves say very difficult to see and i would expect at least a couple of spotless days from spaceweather. The laymans sunspot site has already called 2 spotless days. This could be the start of a very long minimum. the next few months could be very interesting indeed.

[Gael_Force]

Who knows? But I do think that's unlikely. The charts here:

 

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html#RSC24

 

...all suggest we have a way to go before there is a really significant decline.

 

I was reading somewhere that this cycle has featured many small spots instead of the larger spots seen in previous cycles; this has raised the SSN to a higher value than what would have been possible to observe the last time activity was a similar level.