Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

CONTINUED QUIET: With no sunspots actively flaring, solar activity remains low. According to NOAA, the odds of a significant solar flare (M- or X-class) today are no more than 1%.  http://spaceweather.com/

[jonboy]

Activity dropping like a stone. 2 spotless days by laymans sunspot count and F10.7 flux now below 100

[jonboy]

 

 

spot the sunspot even space weather is down to a count of 11 third spotless day for the layman's count F10.7 flux still dropping and down to 93. Sharp drop in activity since cycle max is this what differentiates a grand minimum type cycle to a normal solar cycle?

[Polar Maritime]

Sunspot count down to 55.

 

 

CONTINUED QUIET: The sun has been quiet for almost a month. The last burst of significant activity occured on May 5th and 6th, when a large sunspot produced an X-class solar flare followed by a number of M-class aftershocks. Since then, the sunspot number has dropped and the quiet has grown. http://spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

CHANCE OF STORMS: A high-speed stream of solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, setting the stage for possible high-latitude auroras on June 8th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours. http://spaceweather.com/

 

Sunspot Count has risen up to 136.

 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Maybe Scotland tonight..

 

[Spikecollie]

I'd so like to see the AB and I really hope you do if you are in a favourable zone.

[keithlucky]

Solar Cycle 24 3rd weakest on record http://t.co/JzXBoT13As

[Polar Maritime]

It's certainly 'on track' to be..

 

Now that we completed the definitive sunspot numbers for 2014, we can conclude that the maximum of solar cycle 24 was reached in April 2014, with a maximum of the 13-month smoothed sunspot number at 81.8. Since then, solar activity has steadily declined (monthly mean sunspot number now around 40), but remained above 70 over many months, probably indicating that the annual mean for 2014 will also mark a yearly maximum at 78.9. Those values exceed the first peak of activity in cycle 24, which occurred in February 2012 but was short and only reached 66.9.

Therefore, cycle 24 proves to be 30% weaker than the previous solar cycle, which reached 119.7 in July 2000, and thus belongs to the category of moderate cycles, like cycles 12 to 15, which were the norm in the late 19th and early 20th century. Compared to strong cycles, such cycles typically feature a broader maximum, with a 3-year plateau on top of which two or more surges of activity can produce sharp peaks of similar height (see graphic). http://sidc.be/silso/news004

 

 

An interesting paper published here;

 

The aim of this paper is to try and estimate the maximum strength of solar Cycle 25 and address the question of whether we are headed towards a long period of little/no sunspot activity similar to the well known Maunder minimum (1645-1715 AD) when the sunspot activity was extremely low. http://xxx.tau.ac.il/pdf/1506.03589.pdf

Edited June 13, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

INCREASING SOLAR ACTIVITY: On June 18th at 1736 UT, Earth-orbiting satellites detected an M3-class solar flare--the strongest flare in nearly 2 months. The source appears to be sunspot AR2371, which has been growing rapidly during the past 24 hours. A CME is emerging from the blast site. It is too soon, however, to say whether or not it is heading for Earth. http://spaceweather.com/

 

Edited June 19, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

BIG SUNSPOT FACES EARTH: One of the biggest sunspots of the current solar cycle, AR2371, is directly facing Earth. The active region has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class solar flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on June 22nd. http://spaceweather.com/

 

[James M]

Well I've had a Red aurora alert on my phone. It's a shame the weathers crap and its the lightest time of year!

[Polar Maritime]

Yes.. Kp 5 so far 

 

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: A severe G4-classgeomagnetic storm is in progress on June 22nd. This follows a series of rapid-fire CME strikes to Earth's magnetic field during the past 24 hours. Magnetic fields in the wake of the latest CME are strongly coupled to Earth's own magnetic field. This is a condition that could sustain the geomagnetic storm for many hours to come. High- and mid-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight, especially during the hours around local midnight. 

 

Edited June 22, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[kar999]

Solar storm causing shed loads of normally unreachable distant foreign radio stations  to come through on DAB and FM frequencies. Even Simon Mayo on Radio 2 apologised this afternoon for interference from an Italian Station.

 

Radio Hams will be having a field day!   

 

It's a shame the twilight is so strong in the UK that any Aurora, if down this south, may be washed out. 

Edited June 22, 2015 by kar999

[Polar Maritime]

And also separately ^ There have been successive Earth directed flares so a busy few nights i would think.

 

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE, RADIO BLACKOUT: Sunspot AR2371 has erupted again, producing a strong M6.5 class solar flare.  http://spaceweather.com/

 

[weatherobsuk]

Too much cloud to see anything discernible here, but Warrington and South Wales have reported Aurora sightings tonight.

[Polar Maritime]

WOW Kp up to 8 severe..

 

 

 

More auroras are in the offing as Earth's magnetic field reverberates from the CME strikes. NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on June 23rd, subsiding only a little to 70% on June 24th. http://spaceweather.com/

 

More intense Aurora to come from yesterdays M flare which was also directly facing Earth. To cloudy here to see anything last night.. Much clearer sky's tonight.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[kar999]

Some nice pix from the Brecon Beacons last night.

 

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/northern-lights-glow-over-brecon-9508113

[NorthYorksWeather]

Anything of note due tonight? Still never seen such a spectacle here in Northern England.

[kar999]

Storm seems to have subsided since peak yesterday so not looking too promising.

[Polar Maritime]

Aberdeen last night.

 

[Nouska]

Aberdeen last night.

 

 

Well, if they cannot see the sun during the day, sure got a fine display from the night sky.

 

I wonder if this big burst of activity will give the weather patterns a bit of a nudge?

[Stargazer]

Don't think there's much chance of a widespread display tonight but it's worth monitoring activity again tomorrow evening. Last night was overcast round here but parts of the south did get to see a faint display.

[doctormog]

I think that it Stonehaven rather than Aberdeen (therefore less light pollution). Nice shot though, especially given the lack of darkness at this time of the year and the extensive cloud cover.

[Daniel*]

On the local London weather forecast the presentor mentioned a chance of seeing the aurora borealis.