Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Yarmy]

Down to 89 now which must be the lowest it's been since before this cycle's maximum!

 

Coincidentally, solar flux dropped into the 80s at almost exactly the same time last year (17th to 21st of July):

 

http://www.solarham.net/solarflux.htm

[karyo]

Coincidentally, solar flux dropped into the 80s at almost exactly the same time last year (17th to 21st of July):

 

http://www.solarham.net/solarflux.htm

The page gives me an error message but I'll take your word for it.

 

That's interesting though as there was a brief lull in activity last summer. 

[Polar Maritime]

A look at the smoothed solar flux and sunspot data will tell us that we are now exiting the second peak of the current solar cycle 24 and may very well be in the early stages of a slow decline to solar minimum. This does not mean that we have seen the last of large sunspot groups and big solar flares however. Spikes in activity will remain likely while make the long transition to the predicted solar minimum around 2019-2020. http://www.solarham.net/index.htm

 

[karyo]

A look at the smoothed solar flux and sunspot data will tell us that we are now exiting the second peak of the current solar cycle 24 and may very well be in the early stages of a slow decline to solar minimum. This does not mean that we have seen the last of large sunspot groups and big solar flares however. Spikes in activity will remain likely while make the long transition to the predicted solar minimum around 2019-2020. http://www.solarham.net/index.htm

 

Very interesting to see! 

[saharmohamedali]

Hopefully the region responsible will remain as active once it gets round to this side of the Sun. 

 

 

[jonboy]

There's a good chance even the official record will record a spotless day soon. Using the old method a spotless day is recorded and F10 .7 flux below 100

[karyo]

 

Hopefully the region responsible will remain as active once it gets round to this side of the Sun. 

 

 

 

Responsible reason for what?

[Polar Maritime]

Some sightings last night from Kirkwall and as far South as Yorkshire. Currently we are on Kp5, With expected Kp7 later on tonight so we 'may' see further Southern UK observations.

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

CHANCE OF FLARES: Behemoth sunspot AR2403 started to decay yesterday, but it still a dangerous active region. The sunspot's delta-class magnetic field harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance ofM-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Aug. 26th. http://spaceweather.com/

 

An M5.6 flare from this region on the 24th.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Some shots from Ullapool/Ardmair last night, Taken by Mick Malton. Kp6 Storm currently in progress.

 

Edited August 27, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

SIMMERING GEOMAGNETIC STORM: For the third day in a row, Earth's magnetic field is simmering with G1-class geomagnetic storms. The drawn-out event has ignited some of the first visible auroras in months around the Arctic Circle. Just hours ago, Jaromir Stanczyk witnessed this display over Iceland:

http://spaceweather.com/

 

https://vimeo.com/137641279

[Polar Maritime]

From Loch Lomond last night (Credit David Thompson)

 

[Polar Maritime]

(ALMOST) NO CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is very low. Not one of the small sunspots currently dotting the solar disk is actively flaring. As a result, the sun's X-ray output has flatlined. NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong solar flare on Sept. 9th are no more than 1%.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Kp6 Storm underway so maybe more sightings for the North tonight.

Edited September 9, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Drumnadrochit/Dingwall & Inverness last night.

 

Edited September 10, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

THE SUN IS STUBBORNLY QUIET: Despite the emergence of a new and unstable sunspot (AR2415), the sun remains stubbornly quiet. There hasn't been a strong flare in weeks, and the sun's X-ray output is very low. http://spaceweather.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

From 

Blessed Weather

 

What impact would a ‘grand solar minimum’ have on our future climate?

A paper, led by Met Office scientists in collaboration with the universities of Cambridge, Oxford, Reading and Colorado and published in Nature Communications, has found that the return of a ‘grand solar minimum’ not seen in centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern US, whilst failing to halt global warming.

Some solar physicists believe there is an increased risk that we are heading towards the minimum stage of this solar cycle – last seen during the so-called ‘Maunder Minimum’ which ended 300 years ago and coincided with colder winters in UK and Europe.

Regionally, a larger cooling effect was found for northern Europe, the UK and eastern parts of North America, especially in winter, with northern Europe experiencing a mean drop in temperature in the range -0.4C to -0.8C.

The impact of a grand solar minimum would only temporarily moderate future warming from climate change.

 

Weather Club Newsletter: http://www.theweathe...K,135O6Y,6G32,1

 

Full paper in Nature Communications: http://www.nature.co...ncomms8535.html

 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77068-global-surface-air-temperature-current-conditions-and-future-prospects/page-25#entry3260163

[jonboy]

 

From 

Blessed Weather

 

What impact would a ‘grand solar minimum’ have on our future climate?

A paper, led by Met Office scientists in collaboration with the universities of Cambridge, Oxford, Reading and Colorado and published in Nature Communications, has found that the return of a ‘grand solar minimum’ not seen in centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern US, whilst failing to halt global warming.

Some solar physicists believe there is an increased risk that we are heading towards the minimum stage of this solar cycle – last seen during the so-called ‘Maunder Minimum’ which ended 300 years ago and coincided with colder winters in UK and Europe.

Regionally, a larger cooling effect was found for northern Europe, the UK and eastern parts of North America, especially in winter, with northern Europe experiencing a mean drop in temperature in the range -0.4C to -0.8C.

The impact of a grand solar minimum would only temporarily moderate future warming from climate change.

 

Weather Club Newsletter: http://www.theweathe...K,135O6Y,6G32,1

 

Full paper in Nature Communications: http://www.nature.co...ncomms8535.html

 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77068-global-surface-air-temperature-current-conditions-and-future-prospects/page-25#entry3260163

 

 

What I always find interesting is that they quote a cooling range for a solar grand minimum but are not willing to say what a grand maximum effect on temperature would be. lets be honest we have just come off a run of significantly high solar cycle which could be called 'solar grand maximum' so could this have increased temperatures at least by the same range!!!!

[Polar Maritime]

Nice in Hd..

 

lets be honest we have just come off a run of significantly high solar cycle which could be called 'solar grand maximum' so could this have increased temperatures at least by the same range!!!!

 

One of the weakest recorded Maximums re~ 'Mini Max'' 

 

 

 

Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented persuasive evidence that solar variability is leaving an imprint on climate, especially in the Pacific. According to the report, when researchers look at sea surface temperature data during sunspot peak years, the tropical Pacific shows a pronounced La Nina-like pattern, with a cooling of almost 1o C in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, "there are signs of enhanced precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ) and SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) as well as above-normal sea-level pressure in the mid-latitude North and South Pacific," correlated with peaks in the sunspot cycle. http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

[Gael_Force]

Nice in Hd..

 

 

One of the weakest recorded Maximums re~ 'Mini Max'' 

 

 

The paper you linked above says this:-

 

 

The past few decades have been characterized by a period of relatively high solar activity. However, the recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end¹.

Some scientists believe it was "grand" however much other parties may want to change the records to show differently!

Edited September 20, 2015 by Gael_Force

[Polar Maritime]

The paper you linked above says this:-

 

Some scientists believe it was "grand" however much other parties may want to change the records to show differently!

 

Yes 'relatively high' over the past few decades certainly not significant. Solar cycle 24 and the peak we have just passed has been the weakest in 50yrs.

Edited September 20, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Kp has already been up to 7, Currently Kp5 expect 7 later, With chance of Aurora sightings for Scotland possible later. Also 2 M class flares today.

 

Edited September 20, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR2422 has developed an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar flares and a 5% chance of X-flares on Sept. 27th. Because the sunspot is directly facing Earth, any eruptions this weekend will likely be geoeffective. http://spaceweather.com/

[Northernlights]

Moderately good aurora over the Moray Firth tonight in spite of the moon.

[Polar Maritime]

Moderately good aurora over the Moray Firth tonight in spite of the moon.

Yes from last night.. (not my shot)

Edited October 2, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Love Snow]

@LeedsNews: Best free show on earth: See the Northern Lights tonight. #NorthernLights http://t.co/igFReEXMQr http://t.co/RtbaLYDisP