December CET

[West is Best]

Philip Eden's CET for December is now out. It's 6.6C

http://www.climate-uk.com/

The NW tracker finished on 6.8C. It will be very interesting to see what the official Met Office Hadley figure finishes on. On Philip's index rainfall was above average at 108.2 mm.

[Optimus Prime]

Firsy half was remarkably warm....3.2c above average! While the second half more normal at 0.2c below average.

Finishing at 6.6c despite that lengthy warm spell. Makes you think how warm December 1934 and 1974 really were at 8.1c! (3.5c above normal)

[Roger J Smith]

Folks, this comment has nothing to do with my entry, but surely the official version will be higher than 6.5 or even 6.8, as the last three days all had official max temps near 13 C due to the midnight high on 29-30th. I would not be surprised if it hit perhaps 7.1 or 7.2 -- also, the NW tracker hardly moved up after the 27th despite the fact that almost every hour was above the stated value, sometimes by 4-6 degrees. Seems odd to me - also what was the median for the month, and the mean at actual stations? More than half the month seemed warmer than 7, and that cold spell wasn't that cold. Betcha the official number comes in low 7s.

[pottyprof]

Yeah.. know what your saying Roger.. was rather on the mild side.. I'd say over 7oC.. just.. The temps did go higher eventually..

If you're on about the Christmas tracker.. that didnt go beyond the 25th.. unless i missed something..

[Optimus Prime]

Possibly because it's an upwards struggle rising the CET so late in the month despite the very end being very warm.

Also because the CET was already so high (6.3c by about the 29th) a 24hour CET of 10c wouldn't be enough to nudge it more then 0.1 or 0.2c every 24 hour update.

Widely many places had 24 hour temperature of around 0.1c for almost a week. At that time the CET was around 8.5c so 0.1c would be 8.4c below the current temperature and so the drop would be fairly immense. While 10c is only a 3.7c difference from the current average at that time and so the rise would be a fraction and being much more later in the month then the cold spell.

I think the final "official" figure for England will be closer to 6.8c. 7.0c is too high.

[pottyprof]

probably of a case of wait and see then OP?

Its on a knife edge.. Certainly some very mild temps the last couple of days in December.. Perhaps just not in the right areas?

[The PIT]

Around 6.8C will probably be very close. Not surprising the CET hasn't risen much for the last few days. It won't and if you think about and bung some numbers in your calculator you'll see why.

[West is Best]

Around 6.8C will probably be very close. Not surprising the CET hasn't risen much for the last few days. It won't and if you think about and bung some numbers in your calculator you'll see why.

Got to say I'm slightly surprised by some of the comments about the Hadley figure Pit. Some are suggesting a figure of 7C+, but I cannot see how it can be 0.5C higher than Philip's 6.6C. It may be between 6.4C and 6.8C but no higher I'd have thought. My guess is 6.6C or 6.7C.

I also agree about your second sentence. Roger may not have realised how cold the days were in the CET zone under inversion, but as you say a simple use of the calculator reveals clearly why it's impossible to have the sort of rises that he and one or two others have suggested in the final days.

Edited January 2, 2007 by West is Best

[Ledbury Lad]

Actual figures here for DECEMBER 2006

Milder than the average

The warmest December here since 1988

Not quite as mild as the December of 1974 which was the warmest December in my own personal records

South westerly winds predominated apart from the pre-Christmas intense anticyclonic spell which was characterised by persistent fog and a couple of slight overnight air frosts

Average minimum temperature: +4.2C

Average maximum temperature: +9.0C

MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER: +6.6C

Lowest temperature recorded: -2.0C 22 December

Highest temperature recorded: +13.6C reached at 01.06hrs 29 December!

Number of air frosts: 6

Snowfall was completely absent

The month was completely in line with current winter temperature trends

Indeed, my record for 2006 show that the year as a whole was the warmest ever in my own records going back to 1952!

The mean temperature for 2006 was +11.2C

This compares with the previous warmest year ever - +11.1C in 2004

The march of Global Warming now seems relentless

The prospects for January / February 2007 apparently show no real sign of change

[Stratos Ferric]

Here's a provisional look at the results to date. These may change at the top end: for now I've assumed a CET of 6.6; this may be 6.7 or 6.8 in the final reckoning, so expect some movements at the top end. Also too soon to call the first monthly 1-2-3 given the clustering around the potential outcomes.

Scorcher's remarkable run continues. TWS continues to be close to the money as well. John Acc, ChillMilly, ACB and SnowRay also on the honours board.

NOTE - I HAVE included late entrants: the colour coding shows late netires under the December entries. Red is one day late, range two days. The penalties are netted off at the end of the s/s sheet.

Edited January 2, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[kold weather]

That must have taken quite a bit of work SF!

Not a great Dec call to be honest from myself, decided to go for the lower end option but there you go, wasn't as bad as it could have been I suppose, much more confident in regards to the Jan call.

[Anti-Mild]

Great stuff SF! I was quite pleased to end up only 0.7c out as it looked at one stage as I was going to be miles away!

I'm not so sure about January as I suggested 4.0c and it ain't looking too good :blush: !

[Stratos Ferric]

That must have taken quite a bit of work SF!

Not a great Dec call to be honest from myself, decided to go for the lower end option but there you go, wasn't as bad as it could have been I suppose, much more confident in regards to the Jan call.

Not really: so long as somebody compiles the monthly list in the style of oposom's excellent example this time: i.e. nn.n: name. Stripping the data into the spreadsheet takes an hour. Processing it another hour. The template's already there from the trial run.

[kold weather]

Would it be possible to do a net-weather forum CET guess, in other words the mean of all the predicitions from the people who entered the comp, as that may give a good idea to see where the consensus is when it comes to the CET forecasts.

Anti-Mild, long way to go for the Jan CET, needless to say right now I'm pretty pleased with the set-up even if it goes right against the wanting of cold

[Stratos Ferric]

Would it be possible to do a net-weather forum CET guess, in other words the mean of all the predicitions from the people who entered the comp, as that may give a good idea to see where the consensus is when it comes to the CET forecasts.

Anti-Mild, long way to go for the Jan CET, needless to say right now I'm pretty pleased with the set-up even if it goes right against the wanting of cold

It's there on the actual spreadsheet (not yet issued). Above the column showing the net differential for individual guesses (0.0c for Acc) in each month you can see a value giving the mean difference for N-W. Subtract that from the actual outturn and you can derive the average guess. The other values top left are the 71-00 baseline, and the outturn assumed for the month.

[osmposm]

Here's a provisional look at the results to date.............NOTE - I HAVE included late entrants: the colour coding shows late netires under the December entries. Red is one day late, range two days.......

Fantastic, Stratos - we're very lucky to have you. I think you may have left off poor TimmyH and his 12-hours-late 7.0, though......and he was so desperate to be allowed in, too!

Edited January 2, 2007 by osmposm

[Stratos Ferric]

Fantastic, Stratos - we're very lucky to have you. I think you may have left off poor TimmyH and his 12-hours-late 7.0, though......and he was so desperate to be allowed in, too!

I thought I'd written him down, either way if he hasn't been included I'll make sure he's in when the final results for the month are produced.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Fantastic, Stratos - we're very lucky to have you.

That's not what Weather Beaten said.

[West is Best]

Would it be possible to do a net-weather forum CET guess, in other words the mean of all the predicitions from the people who entered the comp, as that may give a good idea to see where the consensus is when it comes to the CET forecasts.

'Consensus' is an interesting word to use. I think in stats I'd prefer 'mean', as consensus gives me the impression it is in some way likely to be accurate, whereas I strongly suspect the NW mean under-estimates temps by 2 or 3C per month

Great work SF. I remain hopeful that the final Hadley figure will nudge up to 6.8C!

[Stratos Ferric]

That's not what Weather Beaten said.

I think she used what the french refer to as the "plus-perfect" tense as I recall.

[West is Best]

The official Met Office Hadley CET for December is now out: 6.5C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean2006.html

Well done to those who guessed this!

The final figure for the year is therefore 10.8C: the warmest year on record.

[Snowly does it]

The official Met Office Hadley CET for December is now out: 6.5C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean2006.html

Well done to those who guessed this!

The final figure for the year is therefore 10.8C: the warmest year on record.

Steaks even now then Richard (yay!)

I would point out though that your projection from the start was just a wee bit more accurate than mine!

[West is Best]

Steaks even now then Richard (yay!)

I would point out though that your projection from the start was just a wee bit more accurate than mine!

Lol Charlotte! NW tracker on 6.8C doesn't count then? Yes you win the steak back!

[Snowly does it]

Lol Charlotte! NW tracker on 6.8C doesn't count then? Yes you win the steak back!

It counts as a moral victory!

I have gone much higher for January, we're not too far apart this time around.

Anyway, here's to lots more fun in 2007.

[osmposm]

That's not what Weather Beaten said.

I must have missed whatever this refers to.....and a detailed search for all WB's posts has left me none the wiser.

I think she used what the french refer to as the "plus-perfect" tense as I recall.

Oh god, I do hate it when I'm the only person who doesn't know what everyone's talking about.....have a heart, someone, and PM me with the sordid details.........