December CET

[Snowly does it]

Yes probably, but I'm circumspect on this. I do think you and a couple of others are over-egging the night-time minima, although the day-time temps will be relatively low. So the CET will be pegged back, but I don't suppose it will be below 7C by next Sunday, which leaves another full 7 days of the month. Bit early to decide what will happen probably. 8.1C does look a little out of reach I guess.

It would be approx 7 by Phillips reading if the CET from now until Sunday is 4. Depends how many freezing nights we get, I still think a figure below 7 is looking likely by Boxing Day with the pattern afterwards still to become clear.

if the CET was 7 on Xmas Eve it would take a staggering 11.88 to equal the record.

A figure in the 6s or 7s is almost guaranteed unless nightimes drop through the floor and no mild spell ensues.

Edited December 18, 2006 by snowmaiden

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, here's my mid-month projection. Looking cooler than it was five days ago, the main change being a prolonged period of HP overhead the UK. Thereafter similar mildness to that previously progged, though perhaps not quite so mild.

Looking like turning in around 7C at present; the great unknown is just how the HP will turn out.

Edited December 18, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[The PIT]

Slight drop in the CET overnight very slight. I think I'm safe in saying my punt of 6c is way too low.

[Optimus Prime]

The CET has taken a nose dive at last, dropped by 0.2c in 1 day. Metcheck has it at 7.8c (2.8c above average) so finally outside the extraordinarily above average category, now into the exceptionally above average one.

Tomorrow will be even colder so potentially dropping of by 0.3c. So tomorrow evening should have the CET at 7.5c.

Netweather has it higher at 8.0c and TWO has it slightly lower at 7.6c. Rounding it off 7.9c would be a good estimate for where metoffice has it.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I still think my 6.6C prediction (requiring about 4.5C for the remainder of December) is in reasonable shape, though it would require the high to maintain a relatively cold core. An intrusion of mild cloudiness from the Atlantic into the high would cause temperatures to rise.

[The PIT]

Net Weather CET hardly moved at all since last night but now we're moving towards the end of the month and changes will be less.

Looking like somewhere between 7.3C and 7.8C

[kold weather]

Not suprising really given two of those stations were in the zone of milder temps last night, though that was discussed in the short term thread pretty well. Anyway the CEt is currently at 8.2C, not much of a drop because of this milder section of the country where two stations lie, and tommorow CET will probably only be 0.1C down on today's UNLESS the next few hours get quite cold which will reduce the mins.

Looking at the temps chart, looks tommorow wil be the first proper cold in terms of affecting the CET anyway. Looking likely to end up with a CEt between 6.5-7.5C, exactly what it ends up will depend on how long the high alsts and how cold it gets, so pretty much the same questions as last week!

[Stu_London]

NW tracker is down to 7.91C now and falling at a rate of approximately 0.01C per hour.

November 2005 is a good example of how quickley the CET can change even late in the month. Alas, (in terms of my 5.9C prediction) the nights do not look like being anywhere near as cold as then and the current coldish conditions look likely to shift off south east shortly after Christmas.

[paul tall]

But then again, we are talking about a week of air frost nights and low daytime maxes for a week or so, especially if fog persists. A max of 4 and a min of -2 gives a mean of just 1 degree for example, and if that happens for 7 days it will bring the CET down quite quickly won't it?

[Weather-history]

Philip's CET value has dipped to 7.8

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

[West is Best]

extraordinarily above average category, now into the exceptionally above average one.

Can you give me the link to those two official Met Office categories OP? I've not heard of them being used before. I had previously only been familiar with 'above' and 'well above' in Met Office parlance. Perhaps you can enlighten me?

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Interestingly, although not definate, there could be the possability that December06 could be warmer than November06.

Does anybody (although i'm sure MrD knows we mean him ) know which years where December was warmer than November?

[JohnAcc]

Interestingly, although not definate, there could be the possability that December06 could be warmer than November06.

Does anybody (although i'm sure MrD knows we mean him ) know which years where December was warmer than November?

Hi Chris,

There have been 42 occurences of this since the CET records began. In recent times it happened in 1993, 1988, 1985, 1974, 1971, 1965, 1942, 1934, 1923, 1921, 1919, 1918, 1915, 1912, 1911 and 1910.

The following Jan CET's was in reverse order (from 1993 backwards) 5.3, 6.1, 3.5, 6.8, 3.9, 2.9, 4.9, 4.5, 4.7, 3.7, 5.2, 2.9, 7.5, 4.5, 3.6 and 3.8.

Therefore the average Jan CET in the last 100 years where the Dec CET > Nov CET was 4.61.

Rgds, John

[Weather-history]

Interestingly, although not definate, there could be the possability that December06 could be warmer than November06.

Does anybody (although i'm sure MrD knows we mean him ) know which years where December was warmer than November?

Very unlikely, it would need a record breaking December to do it. November is about 8.1.

Recent ones

1993

1988

1985

1974

1971

Its not that rare, there was 3 on the trot in the 1910s (1910,1911, 1912) and infact 6 of the Novembers of the 1910s were colder than the following December.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Cheers MrD (and John - Sorry, just seen your post )

I was looking at the Net-Wx temp tracker (currently at 7.76oC and November at 7.9oC), with some colder days, I was thinking perhaps a potential warm up (some 10.0oC progged before the end of the year), there may have been a chance.

I suppose, with the projections being that this weather is likely to last until at least the 24th/25th, it will knock the CET down far enough to stop December being warmer than November.

[kold weather]

Thats quite a large drop considering that at least 1 of those stations were in that milder line over England, so obviously the other stations have helped to drag down the CET for the day.

Much is going to depend on exactly how long this set-up lasts and what we'll get afterwards. Looking likely that the last few days will see a much milder flow, but I'd take a guess and say we've got a good 7-8 days still where the CET could drop away, so the CET will probably end up on the high side of 6C.

[Weather-history]

I wonder if Scotland could turn out milder than south of the Border purely on numerical values. Last occasion in the Areal series was January 1997.

[Stratos Ferric]

Thats quite a large drop considering that at least 1 of those stations were in that milder line over England, so obviously the other stations have helped to drag down the CET for the day.

Much is going to depend on exactly how long this set-up lasts and what we'll get afterwards. Looking likely that the last few days will see a much milder flow, but I'd take a guess and say we've got a good 7-8 days still where the CET could drop away, so the CET will probably end up on the high side of 6C.

I certainly think the CET will drop steadily now. Two thirds of the way through the month we're not going to get a precipitous drop, but the cold from this system is presently slightly lower and more widespread than I'd have progged as "middle ground" likelihood. So long as the system stays anchored close overhead there's no reason for that to change. We're not going to end up in -10 territory from this, but so long as the air doesn't mix (i.e. no wind) then -3 or so overnight and 2-3 during the day is plusible for the next 4-5 days. That much would actually pull monthly outturn down much closer to 6, but as kold suggests, that hinges on what entails when we exit this settled spell. The odds are on something milder at present, but unless it's a LOT milder then an outturn around 6 for the month is still possible. Above 7 is now looking less likely.

I wonder if Scotland could turn out milder than south of the Border purely on numerical values. Last occasion in the Areal series was January 1997.

I suspect that's a good call.

[West is Best]

Although I share the above sentiments, we should bear in mind that there's a full week of the month left from Christmas Day. I'm pretty happy with my 6.8C punt at the moment ...!

[Stu_London]

Although I share the above sentiments, we should bear in mind that there's a full week of the month left from Christmas Day. I'm pretty happy with my 6.8C punt at the moment ...!

A bit on the bullish side I would say.

Looking more and more likely that although the high will start to shift around xmas day it will take some time and temps could be progged below average right through to the 28th or 29th.

Meantime temps in this spell are much lower than was forecast a couple of days ago and likely to remain so for a few days yet.

I reckon its about 70/30 in favour of finishing above 6.0C as things stand.

[kold weather]

I agree Stu, the HP may start to move away but I cn't see temps really rising till at least the 28th and if the milder air takes a while to mix down to the surface then maybe even the 29th, so the mild stuff will probably only have 2 nights and 3 days do much, so it probably won't have a massive impact on the CET at that stage in the month.

Given the CET has dropped 0.4C in one day, and if anything the next 3 days are even colder, looking very likely that we'll have a CEt between 6-7C, right now I'd go for 6.4C, certainly quite an impressive drop and nearly as impressive as the drop in November 2005 at the moment!

[weathernewbie]

Although I share the above sentiments, we should bear in mind that there's a full week of the month left from Christmas Day. I'm pretty happy with my 6.8C punt at the moment ...!

The Ensembles dont seem to favour anything that will rescue your prediction.

[Weather-history]

I suspect that's a good call.

If its not widespread then perhaps certain stations such as Stornoway or even Lerwick could have a milder December then some locations in England and Wales

[shuggee]

I wonder if Scotland could turn out milder than south of the Border purely on numerical values. Last occasion in the Areal series was January 1997.

That's a very interesting stat Mr D. I'm wondering how much of a tempering affect the cold east wull have on any current runaway mildness to the west. Aberdeen's been cold. What stations are used?

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the current GFS run the period 20-25th will have an average temperature of 1.6c (3.4c below average)

The CET by the 25th should be around 6.7c. 2.1c above the 61-90 average and 1.6c above the 71-000 average so it's still likely to be above nomal by a long way.

Despite the GFS being the progressive of the two big ones the average temperature from now-31st is 2.7c.

Going by that run the average CET will come in at 5.9c. 1.3c above the 61-90 average and 0.8c above the 71-000 one.

So it could still end up only above average rather then well above.