December CET

[Guest Mike W]

8.5

Edited December 1, 2006 by Mike W

[Mammatus]

9.5

Mammatus

[SMU]

9.5

Mammatus :blush:

Can we amend my Dec cet to 5.6C please inline with the winter forecast-

S

[Surrey Snowstorm]

I'll go for 5.7.

[osmposm]

So, is there a "match referee" in overall charge, or just a number of umpires and line judges? We really do need to make a decision on this late/changed entry business; and while looking for consensus is great in theory, I fear it'll lead to us still arguing the toss come Christmas.

Perhaps we should start fresh from Jan 07, with fully understood and accepted rules....or maybe we had those already (and all ready) for this month? I never engaged in the setting up process - I just made a punt, and am happy to abide by the rules made by those who did.

Ossie

[Stu_London]

Hope this isnt too late as I have been away for a few days

5.2

[Stratos Ferric]

So, is there a "match referee" in overall charge, or just a number of umpires and line judges? We really do need to make a decision on this late/changed entry business; and while looking for consensus is great in theory, I fear it'll lead to us still arguing the toss come Christmas.

Perhaps we should start fresh from Jan 07, with fully understood and accepted rules....or maybe we had those already (and all ready) for this month? I never engaged in the setting up process - I just made a punt, and am happy to abide by the rules made by those who did.

Ossie

I'm happy to propose but we ought to have some concensus. Seeing as Paul has put the prize up perhaps he should make the final decision. The original suggestion was that everyone needed to be entered by 00:00 on the 1st of the month, and that everyone was entitled to two misses over the year (though I think to qualify for the "unofficial" seasonal prizes 3/3 should be required). Thus far nobody would be excluded therefore, other than for this first month.

Having had a look at the data over the trial period I suggest that the 10pts / day (or part thereof) be applied for latecomers (and late changes), with a final cut-off of the 3rd of the month.

[Evo]

Having had a look at the data over the trial period I suggest that the 10pts / day (or part thereof) be applied for latecomers (and late changes), with a final cut-off of the 3rd of the month.

Yep, I concur with this. Also Paul should have final say on any rules IMO as he will be the nearest thing we have to an impartial judge (plus he his ponying up the dough for the prizes)

Edit: the other thing I meant to mention is that it's best for all if the rules are firmly fixed and applied. This makes it fairer on everyone and also, whilst this may now be a bit of fun, it'd be a shame if it descended into a general free-for-all at some point in the future over "fluffy" rules.

Edited December 2, 2006 by Evo

[Stratos Ferric]

Yep, I concur with this. Also Paul should have final say on any rules IMO as he will be the nearest thing we have to an impartial judge (plus he his ponying up the dough for the prizes)

Edit: the other thing I meant to mention is that it's best for all if the rules are firmly fixed and applied. This makes it fairer on everyone and also, whilst this may now be a bit of fun, it'd be a shame if it descended into a general free-for-all at some point in the future over "fluffy" rules.

Absolutely right. Bound it at the start then stick with it; no exceptions. I think the one thing we haven't formally agreed on is "which CET". I have been using Philip's calculation hitherto, but I'm happy to run with Manley / UKMO if people prefer. At the end of the day there's usually only 0.1C in it, and using Philip's value at least allows us to track through the month without worrying about what the month end adjustment might be.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I go for 6.6C, but I have no problem with being excluded from the "quiz"; I just do these predictions for a bit of fun, and also out of necessity on the monthly forecast.

[West is Best]

Absolutely right. Bound it at the start then stick with it; no exceptions. I think the one thing we haven't formally agreed on is "which CET". I have been using Philip's calculation hitherto, but I'm happy to run with Manley / UKMO if people prefer. At the end of the day there's usually only 0.1C in it, and using Philip's value at least allows us to track through the month without worrying about what the month end adjustment might be.

I agree about no exceptions. It's tough on some folk, but best to stick to that rule really.

I personally strongly favour that we use the Hadley Met Office figure. I know it's annoying not to have it updated through the month, but look on it as an additional twist at the end of the month to see if Hadley varies from Philip's Manley emulation!

[Stratos Ferric]

I go for 6.6C, but I have no problem with being excluded from the "quiz"; I just do these predictions for a bit of fun, and also out of necessity on the monthly forecast.

Well, like Rotherham United, you start the season on negative points! Your normally in the ballpark though, so I doubt you'll be in the relegation places come month's end.

[Stratos Ferric]

Very intresting to see people are going for decently below average condtions, also some intresting stats OP. ...

Yes, but then in WW2 the Jews continued to board trains, and walk into gas huts even after they learned the awful fate awaiting them... and in 1987 I was at King's Cross at the same time as people were pushing past people to get up the escalators, despite the presence of people telling them not to because there was a fire above: the mind of the mass is not necessarily a correctly reasoning mind. Napoleon (or was it Wellington) made a famous statement in the regard of hoping that his view did NOT align with that of the masses, for precisely this reason.

As we stand, the month from here in would already need to be 0.5C below par every day in order to turn in an average month. Given this start, and the week to come, any prospect for record breaking cold (across the month as a whole) has gone, and a new yearly record is now pretty much assured. From here on in we'd now need 3.4C/day to avoid a new peak. By the end of the week that value looks like being down around 2.5C.

Astonishingly, it's actually more likely that 11 will be breached for the first time ever. We'd need about 8.3 from here in for that. I'd say it's 150-1 against avoiding a new record, and about 100-1 against reaching 11.00.

Edited December 3, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[J10]

Which figure would we be using for the CET prize, is the overall Grand Prix figure or any of the others figures used.

Also is the difference in formula in the excellent Calculation spreadsheet, between cell BT 161 and BT 162 intentional.

[Stratos Ferric]

Which figure would we be using for the CET prize, is the overall Grand Prix figure or any of the others figures used.

Also is the difference in formula in the excellent Calculation spreadsheet, between cell BT 161 and BT 162 intentional.

Grand Prix is my suggestion, it adjusts for a range of factors.

Re the error, I'll go check. TBH I didn't run a thorough check on the s/sheet, and because of the cutting and pasting each month as new players join it's possible I've corrupted something.

Also is the difference in formula in the excellent Calculation spreadsheet, between cell BT 161 and BT 162 intentional.

There's no difference on the master on my PC.

Grand Prix is my suggestion, it adjusts for a range of factors.

Re the error, I'll go check. TBH I didn't run a thorough check on the s/sheet, and because of the cutting and pasting each month as new players join it's possible I've corrupted something.

There's no difference on the master on my PC.

...however, you're quite right, on the one I posted there is. Can't be bothered to check whether it's material or not (probably not, as the equation is just nulling the impact of a blank cell), but I've reposted the final s/sheet instead. Thanks for the heads-up.

[J10]

Grand Prix is my suggestion, it adjusts for a range of factors.

Re the error, I'll go check. TBH I didn't run a thorough check on the s/sheet, and because of the cutting and pasting each month as new players join it's possible I've corrupted something.

There's no difference on the master on my PC.

...however, you're quite right, on the one I posted there is. Can't be bothered to check whether it's material or not (probably not, as the equation is just nulling the impact of a blank cell), but I've reposted the final s/sheet instead. Thanks for the heads-up.

The figures are certainly not material, I think the problem only related to the 1 pt addition on the correct direction, so that for certain months a lot of the competitors could not have gained any points. But as we are starting the compeition now, that's fine,

I have added my copy of the spreassheet, to show the very minor differences, which prove there is no real material difference.

,

[Stratos Ferric]

The figures are certainly not material, I think the problem only related to the 1 pt addition on the correct direction, so that for certain months a lot of the competitors could not have gained any points. But as we are starting the compeition now, that's fine,

I have added my copy of the spreassheet, to show the very minor differences, which prove there is no real material difference.

,

Well done. I suspect the equation change actually stated to occur after the first month, when cells were copied aross new arrivals who had a "no entry" amongst the range. Haven't checked wether it would have introduced a "downstream" failure for anyone, but will check your spot and correct as required.

[ukmoose]

The wrong thread I know - but I can hardly start one for January just yet!

However, as I will be off line for some time and unable to post I would like, if possible, to put my marker down for January as I may not be back in time for the midnight deadline and would hate to miss out!

My feeling now is that December is going to be close to breaking records (for warmth, not cold) and January, though cooler than December, is going to be pretty mild.

I would like to be cheeky and ask whoever opens the January thread to include my prediction of 5.8 degrees.

Thank you in anticipation!

Will be back, but maybe not in time for Christmas so to everyone on the forum, A very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Here's to a cooler 2007 and happy forecasting.

Kind regards to all,

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

The wrong thread I know - but I can hardly start one for January just yet!

However, as I will be off line for some time and unable to post I would like, if possible, to put my marker down for January as I may not be back in time for the midnight deadline and would hate to miss out!

My feeling now is that December is going to be close to breaking records (for warmth, not cold) and January, though cooler than December, is going to be pretty mild.

I would like to be cheeky and ask whoever opens the January thread to include my prediction of 5.8 degrees.

Thank you in anticipation!

Will be back, but maybe not in time for Christmas so to everyone on the forum, A very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Here's to a cooler 2007 and happy forecasting.

Kind regards to all,

Moose

That's 270 points for an early entry: I know what your game is (lol) you cheeky young buck. A strong argument for not having an early entry bonus methinks.

[Evo]

That's 270 points for an early entry: I know what your game is (lol) you cheeky young buck. A strong argument for not having an early entry bonus methinks.

In that case I'll go for a CET of 18.4 for January 2014

[Optimus Prime]

Using the highest figure by the 10th the CET for December should be around 8.0c (2.9c above average)

The first half will certainly be mild but probably not notably so.

[Roger J Smith]

If there was month that ran from 6 November to 5 December, it would have a CET of about 9.1 -- and you would have to pay your rent again today. :lol:

[West is Best]

Using the highest figure by the 10th the CET for December should be around 8.0c (2.9c above average)

However many times does it need to be said that the GFS temp predictor is unreliable. With the CET currently at 9.5C (Manley) I think there's every chance it will be 8C or above by the 10th.

The first half will certainly be mild but probably not notably so.

You have to be kidding OP? Early days I know but it's 3.5C above average so far and if that's not notably mild then I'll go and eat the cherry blossom that's appearing on the tree in the garden.

[Weather-history]

The Decembers of 1979, 1985 and 2000 all had exceptionally mild starts, milder than this December so far but didn't come near the record of 8.1 of 1934 and 1974 in the end.

[West is Best]

A good cautionary tale there Kevin.

And wasn't it just last year that a certain organisation ammounced the warmest year on record, only to have it cruelly snatched during the final fortnight?

I agree with you Ian by the way. Mind you, 'it's the minima wot dunnit': however many times have we pointed out that the minima can be the killer for a low CET? Last night was a good case in point, with very high temps once more lifting the average.