December CET

[osmposm]

.......if that's not notably mild then I'll go and eat the cherry blossom that's appearing on the tree in the garden.

WIB, I agree that it's exceptionally mild; but I suspect that the tree is Prunus xsubhirtella 'Autumnalis', which - as its name implies - flowers intermittently in mild spells from late autumn through to spring every year. If it's a different variety, though, then it's remarkable indeed.

[Stratos Ferric]

The Decembers of 1979, 1985 and 2000 all had exceptionally mild starts, milder than this December so far but didn't come near the record of 8.1 of 1934 and 1974 in the end.

I agree; I think we will have cooler weather later this month, if not the sustained cold that some of our more visionary members project. We're almost certainly already in territory that makes the monthly total +ve c.f. norm though, and at least 0.5C above norm. My reckoning at present would be 1-2C above par for the month as a whole, but it could still easily go +/-1 either side of this.

[Optimus Prime]

However many times does it need to be said that the GFS temp predictor is unreliable. With the CET currently at 9.5C (Manley) I think there's every chance it will be 8C or above by the 10th.

You have to be kidding OP? Early days I know but it's 3.5C above average so far and if that's not notably mild then I'll go and eat the cherry blossom that's appearing on the tree in the garden.

Yes 3.5c above average is notable but 8.0 for not even the first half isn't. 8.0c upto the tenth would be 2.3c above average, if the whole month was that mild then it would be exceptional but going by the runs so far it would be incredible if the cet got close to 8.0 or even 7.0 for that matter.

I would class exceptional as 3.5c above average (or record breaking) notable being 2.5c-3.0 above average.

[JohnAcc]

If I take the Dec-06 CET from Philip Eden's Site from the 1st Dec - 5th Dec (9.8C) then here is the league table (top 30) as we stand today.

# = Position

Vrn = Difference between Predicted CET and Current MTD CET

I'll keep this updated as we move through the month to add a bit of fun to it

Dec 2006 CET Predictions

# Vrn Name

1 0.10 TinyBill

2 -1.50 Rojer J Smith

3 -2.50 Derby4Life

4 -2.70 Stephen Prudence

5 -2.70 Paul

6 -2.80 Weatherwise

7 -3.00 West Is Best

8 -3.10 Scorcher

9 -3.10 Snowray

10 -3.20 JohnaAcc

11 -3.30 ChillyMilly

12 -3.40 StormChaser1

13 -3.40 Tom Partis

14 -3.50 BFTP

15 -3.50 Chris L

16 -3.50 GuitarNutter

17 -3.60 Cheeky Monkey

18 -3.60 Gavin P

19 -3.60 Osmposm

20 -3.70 Stargazer

21 -3.70 Nigelonline

22 -3.70 Somerset Squall

23 -3.80 Evo

24 -3.80 The Pit

25 -3.80 Reef

26 -3.80 Norrance

27 -3.80 Senior Ridge

28 -3.90 SnowyOwl9

29 -3.90 Anti-Mild

30 -3.90 Mr Data

Edited December 6, 2006 by JohnAcc

[guitarnutter]

yay 16th!

can someone pop up the link of the phillip eden site of the december page

Edited December 6, 2006 by guitarnutter

[Stratos Ferric]

yay 16th!

can someone pop up the link of the phillip eden site of the december page

Good idea that man, why don't you! it's Climate UK...A google search should take less time than it's taken me to type this...

[Roger J Smith]

At this rate, I'm going to need a cooldown after Christmas to catch Tinybill.

On a more serious note, the above list doesn't seem to include some people who entered near the deadline or later. What's the word on that now? I still advocate leniency this first month to preserve the fun aspect.

[JohnAcc]

At this rate, I'm going to need a cooldown after Christmas to catch Tinybill.

On a more serious note, the above list doesn't seem to include some people who entered near the deadline or later. What's the word on that now? I still advocate leniency this first month to preserve the fun aspect.

I took the list as it stood at 23:50 on the 30th November 2006 as per the initial rules. I think it's for GP to decide the final rules for Dec-06. I don't mind either way.

Rgds, John

[Stratos Ferric]

I took the list as it stood at 23:50 on the 30th November 2006 as per the initial rules. I think it's for GP to decide the final rules for Dec-06. I don't mind either way.

Rgds, John

If you did then you certainly haven't included everyone on the list at that time. I know I entered before then, and I don't see SB either, or several of the other low bidders. I assume you've taken a "top 30" slice?

[TEITS]

If you did then you certainly haven't included everyone on the list at that time. I know I entered before then, and I don't see SB either, or several of the other low bidders. I assume you've taken a "top 30" slice?

Your right SF because I posted mine on the 22nd Nov on pg 2 of this thread.

Any chance I could add 5C on my prediction <_<

Edited December 7, 2006 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[JohnAcc]

If I take the Dec-06 CET from Philip Eden's Site from the 1st Dec - 5th Dec (9.8C) then here is the league table (top 30) as we stand today.

Yep top 30 slice only.

Rgds, John

[Altohumorous]

I've looked at all the synoptic models linked on Wetterzentrale and they all show that the band of warm high pressure over SE Europe/West Eurasia, the Azores and now west to the Eastern States/Canada will strengthen in the next two weeks, taking over the Med, the North/East Atlantic and the Iberian Peninsula, eventually France & exerting a strong influence over these Islands, along with a weakening Jet, resulting in what could well be a record mild (warm?) for many parts of the Northern Hem, especially Europe.

This pattern tends not to change much through winter months once established. Where on earth did people get all the "-ve NAO/AO, weak to mod El Nino, some severe spells of cold" predictions from? Wishful thinking in an era of incessant warming

[Stratos Ferric]

Your right SF because I posted mine on the 22nd Nov on pg 2 of this thread.

Any chance I could add 5C on my prediction :blink:

That might be all that the weather Gods require in order to introduce the big pattern change mid-month that a few people on here have been heralding. It might also be all that we have left as well...not much of a "last chance saloon" really, is it?

I'm starting to think somebody, somewhere, has left a ring on on the hob! Big ring, big hob...

Cheerier news this afternoon, the Metcheck CET value has fallen back to a mere 9.2. We're now at the sort of temps we should have around October 25th, rather than October 20th. At this rate, by early Feb, it might be feeling like it should do at Christmas.

[kold weather]

I've changed my mind over the CEt likelyhood. I had hoped the MJO wave would cause a apattern change by the 20th and bring in colder weather, but that has died a horrid death it seems and instead we stick with the current weather. I still don't see a record CET but if we keep the Bartlett we will quite likely have a CEt of 7C+

[Optimus Prime]

There's absolutely no point looking towards the christmas week, things can rapidly change. If we manage the unimanagable (very cold easterlies) during the second half the CET will fall very quickly, especially considering the CET is so high ATM.

The first half of the month will have a CET around the 7.0c mark.

[Somerset Squall]

I can easily envisage this December having a second half just as warm as the first half. Unless there is a dramatic change my CET prediction of 6.1C is looking too low.

[senior ridge]

phew 27th :lol:

[Stratos Ferric]

I think there's a problem with the thermometer on my precision engineered German chariot. This evening it was showing 2.5C. I can only image that the initial "1" has gone out.

On the other hand, we should now be in a polar airstream of some sort. It'e early December and it's clear; ok the ground is wet. However, at midnight, given all of these factors, to be no lower than 2.5C (and it's hardly breezy) is a big disappointment. I tell you, something is now dramatically amiss.

[Optimus Prime]

It dropped to +1.3c.

[su rui ke]

There's absolutely no point looking towards the christmas week, things can rapidly change. If we manage the unimanagable (very cold easterlies) during the second half the CET will fall very quickly, especially considering the CET is so high ATM.

The first half of the month will have a CET around the 7.0c mark.

Sorry but I don't see where a 2.0C drop this week is coming from. Looks like an up-and-down week for temperatures but with the CET eventually settling around 8.0C for the first half.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Please folks. Lets keep everything on topic, and more importantly, no personal insults.

If you do see a post that causes offence, please report it to the team.

Thank you

[Stratos Ferric]

I would STILL argue that, in a cold air mass, with clear skies, 8 hours after sun down, going back 20 years, the temperature would have been lower than 0.5C (the 2C difference attributable to SSTs). Just trying to find a decent comparison from my own records, looking at January 19 1978 by 10pm it was already -2, on a day, having a similar set-up to yesterday, when temps never got above 0C near Leeds. The warmth of the oceans appears to warming the air above disproportionately, all of which is quite feasible given the much greater thermal capacity of water, but none of which bodes well for a "proper" winter, or even much "proper" winter weather.

Edited December 9, 2006 by ChrisL
Edit

[Stratos Ferric]

It dropped to +1.3c.

There was a grass frost here, in the lee of the wall, which is telling. It rather suggests warmer air aloft that was getting mixed. Maybe, another factor in reduced frosts, as well as cloud cover (not the culprit last night) is slightly higher mean wind speeds, so more mixing. That said, the example I gave above was drawn from a breezy day as well.

[Stratos Ferric]

We're now at 2.4C from here in to avoid a new annual record, and 8.3 to achieve 11.0C for the year. The latter is certainly looking far likelier than the former.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

All is normal down here...sub zero 2 nights running. No difference to the norm

BFTP