December CET

[Paul Sherman]

Anyone a bit cleverer (Is That a Word ?) than me able to put a list up of whos going to be nearest to the Possible December CET.

I think someone a few weeks back put up the nearest 40 to where it is now and where it may go??

Paul Sherman

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Paul.

All the way back on page 8

2.0 : THE EYE IN THE SKY

2.0 : memories of 63

2.8 : charlton north-downs

2.9 : snowmaiden

3.1 : Optimus Prime

3.4 : BristolBlizzard

3.6 : Serendipidity

3.7 : Lorraine Bennett

3.9 : Ian Brown

4.0 : fishdude

4.0 : Paul Carfoot

4.1 : Rollo

4.1 : mark bayley

4.3 : skiwi

4.3 : Intrepid

4.4 : STEADY EASTERLY

4.4 : conor123

4.5 : Steve Murr

4.5 : SNOW-MAN 2006

4.6 : Geordie Snow

4.7 : Robbie

4.7 : Iceberg (4.4)

4.8 : neforum2

4.8 : Wilson

4.8 : Glacier Point (4.5)

4.9 : Atlantic Flamethrower

4.9 : snowhope

4.9 : Mr Sleet

5.0 : shuggee

5.0 : WindWatcher

5.1 : James M

5.2 : Nick F

5.2 : Supercell

5.2 : mattneal

5.3 : DAVIDSNOW

5.3 : tugmistress

5.3 : kold weather (4.4)

5.4 : ukmoose

5.4 : Tamara G

5.4 : windswept

5.4 : Bottesford

5.5 : Cymru

5.5 : s4lancia

5.6 : Don

5.6 : summer blizzard

5.6 : JACKONE

5.6 : Stratos Ferric

5.7 : Persian Paladin

5.7 : Paul Sherman

5.7 : Joneseye

5.8 : Steve B

5.8 : The Penguin

5.9 : Snowyowl9

5.9 : Anti-Mild

5.9 : Mr Data

6.0 : Evo

6.0 : The PIT

6.0 : reef

6.0 : senior ridge

6.0 : Norrance

6.1 : Stargazer

6.1 : nigelonline

6.1 : Somerset Squall

6.2 : cheeky monkey

6.2 : Gray-Wolf

6.2 : Gavin P

6.2 : osmposm

6.3 : BLAST FROM THE PAST

6.3 : guitarnutter

6.3 : ChrisL

6.4 : stormchaser1

6.4 : Tom Partis

6.5 : Chilly Milly

6.6 : JohnAcc

6.7 : Scorcher

6.7 : snowray

6.8 : West is Best

7.0 : weatherwise

7.1 : Stephen Prudence

7.1 : Paul

7.3 : derby4life

8.3 : Roger J Smith

9.9 : tinybill

Oh....but I cant do how the calculation thingie of how close people are

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for that Chris, I suppose I could have found that if i was'nt sooo lazy.

Paul S

[kold weather]

Even my upwards adjustment is going to be probably 1C short of where the eventual CET will come out as, but then again a week ago it looked far worse then that even!

Anyway, net-weather Temp tracker now down 7.56°C and that will drop away over the next 5-7 days as well. One thing, as the CET seems to take temp recordings from more rural sites, does the temp tracker use the city center sites instead, because that may explai why its always a little higher mr.Eden's CET tracker.

[J10]

Using the 7.4c CET figure for Dec 1-20 from Philip Eden's excellent site (http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html).

I have attached a link giving the necessary CET for the rest of the month to reach each person's predictions.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like my LRF's punt of 6.6C might turn out a bit too high at this rate!

[VillagePlank]

What's the odds of turning in a 4.8C? Slim, methinks, but somewhere in the late 5's might be possible.

[kold weather]

The last three days of this month are gonig to be way higher then the required CET we'd need Geludiligo so unless ther eis a major difference in the models, next to impossible!

What does look increasingly likely is a CET below 7C and quite possibly on the lower end of 6C as well, though the weekend doesn't look quite so cold as this week so from then till the 28th the CET should fall at a slower rate then presently, then it'll likely rise again a little for the last few days.

[Stratos Ferric]

The last three days of this month are gonig to be way higher then the required CET we'd need Geludiligo so unless ther eis a major difference in the models, next to impossible!

What does look increasingly likely is a CET below 7C and quite possibly on the lower end of 6C as well, though the weekend doesn't look quite so cold as this week so from then till the 28th the CET should fall at a slower rate then presently, then it'll likely rise again a little for the last few days.

The CET is currently running close to, but NOT below, the bottom of the range shown in the projection I posted on Monday. Looking at the specific low-end values I used I can't see it coming in much below. Therefore, unless we get a remarkable turn around, I'd say that around 6.4-6.6 looks pretty good at present.

BY THE WAY:

Yesterday was the first day since Feb 3rd that we registered a COLD day based on Philip's daily plots (my definition being a day when the max does not climb above the mean minimum value for the time of year). Since then we have had 14 very warm days (when the min does not fall below the expected max); 1 in Feb, 2 in Oct, 5 in Nov and 6 already this month!

Edited December 21, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[JohnAcc]

The current top 40 using philip eden's Dec CET of 7.4 upto 20th Dec is as follows:

# Vrn Name

1 -0.10 Derby4Life

2 -0.30 Stephen Prudence

3 -0.30 Paul

4 -0.40 Weatherwise

5 -0.60 West Is Best

6 -0.70 Scorcher

7 -0.70 Snowray

8 -0.80 JohnaAcc

9 0.90 Rojer J Smith

10 -0.90 ChillyMilly

11 -1.00 StormChaser1

12 -1.00 Tom Partis

13 -1.10 BFTP

14 -1.10 Chris L

15 -1.10 GuitarNutter

16 -1.20 Cheeky Monkey

17 -1.20 Gavin P

18 -1.20 Osmposm

19 -1.30 Stargazer

20 -1.30 Nigelonline

21 -1.30 Somerset Squall

22 -1.40 Evo

23 -1.40 The Pit

24 -1.40 Reef

25 -1.40 Norrance

26 -1.40 Senior Ridge

27 -1.50 SnowyOwl9

28 -1.50 Anti-Mild

29 -1.50 Mr Data

30 -1.60 SteveB

31 -1.60 The Penguin

32 -1.70 PersianPaladin

33 -1.70 Paul Sherman

34 -1.70 Joneseye

35 -1.80 Summer Blizzard

36 -1.80 Don

37 -1.80 Jackone

38 -1.80 Stratos Ferric

39 -1.90 Cymru

40 -1.90 S4lancia

[johnholmes]

the mean temp here is now 6.8C from 8.4C about a week ago. The mean temp of the last 6 days=2.7C and over the last 2 days=0.3C

John

[kold weather]

CET for this month now is down to 7.1C and should decrease, be it a little slower till around the 28-29th (depending on the 29th's maxes) I'd guess that a CET value by the 29th of arund 6.2C will be close to the mark (maybe even a little lower if the fog stays for longer then I expect.) the there wil only be 1, maybe 2 days where the CET could rise and its not going to have the time to make much of a difference, so just a chance given the way the cold has been extended a little again that we could record a CET just below 6C, which would be a stunning turn-up considering how mild it was by mid-month!

[The PIT]

CET for this month now is down to 7.1C and should decrease, be it a little slower till around the 28-29th (depending on the 29th's maxes) I'd guess that a CET value by the 29th of arund 6.2C will be close to the mark (maybe even a little lower if the fog stays for longer then I expect.) the there wil only be 1, maybe 2 days where the CET could rise and its not going to have the time to make much of a difference, so just a chance given the way the cold has been extended a little again that we could record a CET just below 6C, which would be a stunning turn-up considering how mild it was by mid-month!

No chance I've gone for 6C and I'm always wrong.

[guitarnutter]

Using the 7.4c CET figure for Dec 1-20 from Philip Eden's excellent site (http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html).

I have attached a link giving the necessary CET for the rest of the month to reach each person's predictions.

Thats very helpful

[West is Best]

CET for this month now is down to 7.1C and should decrease, be it a little slower till around the 28-29th (depending on the 29th's maxes) I'd guess that a CET value by the 29th of arund 6.2C will be close to the mark

I think you're under-estimating the temps again KW. It's easy to be lulled when it's cold to think it will be ever thus, but I think you'll find temps picking up pretty fast next week. It's important to bear in mind that from Christmas Day there's a week until the close of the month: nearly 1/4 of the month. I know you love to see the most cold scenarios from the models, but really that is not a cold set up next week. And the cold hasn't been extended: that's just seeing what you want to see.

To be honest what has struck me has been how slow the CET has been to fall. I expected a real hit, but it's been a sluggish decline so that we come out of the cold spell with temps still 1.5C or so above average.

Edited December 22, 2006 by West is Best

[Wynn D Woo]

I think you're under-estimating the temps again KW. It's easy to be lulled when it's cold to think it will be ever thus, but I think you'll find temps picking up pretty fast next week. It's important to bear in mind that from Christmas Day there's a week until the close of the month: nearly 1/4 of the month. I know you love to see the most cold scenarios from the models, but really that is not a cold set up next week. And the cold hasn't been extended: that's just seeing what you want to see.

To be honest what has struck me has been how slow the CET has been to fall. I expected a real hit, but it's been a sluggish decline so that we come out of the cold spell with temps still 1.5C or so above average.

WIB I remeber you saying how the overnight minima would not be particularly low during this high pressure period and you were wrong on that.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

WIB I remeber you saying how the overnight minima would not be particularly low during this high pressure period and you were wrong on that.

I think to be fair to Richard though WS, many were caught out about temperatures (max and min).

I wouldnt go so far to say he was wrong, as night time mins have not been excessive (-8 to -10), in in some places have probably not been far off the daily maxes (I think here it was a max of 1oC yesterday and min last night of -1.5oC).

A similarish pattern to the milder weather in December (similar max's and mins).

[kold weather]

West, the CET has fallen 1.1C in 3 days, thats quite a fall if you ask me!

As i think I said about 5 days ago, the first 2-3 days were sluggish simply because northern parts of the CET zone seemed to have cloud that just wouldn't move away but now thats less of a problem and you see the result is indeed a very sharp drop.

In the end the GFS is stil lshowing BELOW average temps right upto the 30th now(though I do actually think the actual transition will occur on the 29th, rather then the 30th like the 06z) , which is when we see temps getting slightly above average for the time of year..its not a week for goodness ake!!!

Even the 29th for example, mins progged at 1C and maxes at 6C in the CET zone, equals 3.5C for the average CEt, which my freind equals below average, yes its not cold but the CET won't rise with average values like that!!!!!

So as I said the only days that are likely to see much of a rise are the 30th and 31st and even then, they don't look very mild to me, just mild!!!

I think West your letting your mild bias blind you to the likelyhood of what is actually gonna happen, the same way as it blinded you to these cold days and below average nights, its only once it became apparant they were going to happen that you shifted your stance.

My personal call is cold till xmas, slightly milder daytime temps after that will slow the rate of the drop of the CET, but it'll still slowly drop by say 0.1C a day, rather then the 0.3/4C its doing now. Last 3 days may see the CET rise by 0.3/4C again.

(ps, and yes I do tend tosee the coldest set-up, tohugh the same way as you see the mildest set-up, we are just as bad as each other in that respect, though equally we can both accept it when the other side so to speak gets the weather they want, I'm not going to dig my head in the sand when its mild!!)

Edited December 22, 2006 by kold weather

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

West, the CET has fallen 1.1C in 3 days, thats quite a fall if you ask me!

Also, approximately 0.7oC in the last two days. As the colder air has settled in, the temperature is dropping off rather quickly.

[West is Best]

WIB I remeber you saying how the overnight minima would not be particularly low during this high pressure period and you were wrong on that.

They haven't been. Said it would be cold by day but relatively not so cold by night. Very happy with that. Mostly temps have average around +2C to -2C by night which is what I had thought.

Some extraordinary mild spin from the usual Devon ramping hot-spot! Irrespective of the fact that the current CET is still above average there has been a very significant and sharp fall in the last three days or so with further to go yet. Like the models have continually tried to bring mild air back and subsequently put back the date successively I think there has, in parellel, been a lot of premature early return to mild weather hopecasting going on too.

Sorry, but the charts have not put back the breakdown. Au contraire, they have if anything been nudging it forward: the high is slipping away 25th/26th exactly as the GFS has been progging for days and days.

Yes this has been a cold spell through inversion, but I am genuinely suprised that after a week of this the CET was still standing so high at 7.1C up to last night: amazing in my mind. That's partly because of the relatively mild nights (note the word relative) and, I suspect, the relatively milder north-west.

Pressure has now begun falling here for the past 12 hours: a sign I think that the high pressure's hold is slowly relinquishing, and the mild air that is actually atop the high will no longer be kept at bay through the inversion.

However, just to put things in perspective re. the suggestion about mild spin: my CET prediction for the month was 6.8C, which I'm fairly comfortable with. It will imho get much milder next week. (No need to reply to that KW - I know what you're going to say! Let's agree to disagree and watch and wait!).

[The PIT]

Looking at tonights forecast it looks mild for xmas in the south with 7 and 9 posted. With the cloud cover temperatures shouldn't fall much overnight. This should push the CET backup up again. Strangely the quote was cold for the South. Mmm. Anyway we're in the freeeeeeezing area with a Max of 3c for Xmas for our area.

[Snowly does it]

I think the discussion about the drop is rather erratic here....

There has not been a week of the cooler spell for starters. 4 days (5 if we are generous) is more accurate through to last night when the CET stood at 7.1, it will likely stand at about 6.8 after tonight. Thats a drop of nearly 2 degrees in 6-6 and a half days, as atonishing given the mild start as Novembers mild end from a cold start.

Regardless of people's expectations (and I distinctly recall comments from some quarters about the anticyclonic spell being overplayed), the spell has produced what cannot be described as anything but a cold to very cold spell of weather for many.

As to the rest of the month, a brief milder interlude from sometime in the middle of next week looks likely (but not certain), until then temperatures will be cold for the immediate future and then maybe average or thereabouts. Nothing looks likely to take the CET UP before the 28th/29th (which is a full 5-6 days after the initial date of proposed breakdown).

Above 7 looks a long long way away now and is wholly reliant on synoptics from the unreliable timeframes.

Edited December 22, 2006 by snowmaiden

[Optimus Prime]

The actual CET decline has actually been 1.5c from around the 18th-22nd, a massive drop averaging -0.37c per day.

Climate-uk still has yesterdays stats, the CET is more likely to be around Metchecks Value of 6.7c. That'll be a 1.9c drop in 4 days!

Going by the current run the CET will average 5.7c by the 31st. 0.6c above the 71-000 average and 1.1c above the 61-90 average. So not particularly above normal despite a good 17 days of exceptional mildness.

[The PIT]

I think the discussion about the drop is rather erratic here....

There has not been a week of the cooler spell for starters. 4 days (5 if we are generous) is more accurate through to last night when the CET stood at 7.1, it will likely stand at about 6.8 after tonight. Thats a drop of nearly 2 degrees in 6-6 and a half days, as atonishing given the mild start as Novembers mild end from a cold start.

Regardless of people's expectations (and I distinctly recall comments from some quarters about the anticyclonic spell being overplayed), the spell has produced what cannot be described as anything but a cold to very cold spell of weather for many.

As to the rest of the month, a brief milder interlude from sometime in the middle of next week looks likely (but not certain), until then temperatures will be cold for the immediate future and then maybe average or thereabouts. Nothing looks likely to take the CET UP before the 28th/29th (which is a full 5-6 days after the initial date of proposed breakdown).

Above 7 looks a long long way away now and is wholly reliant on synoptics from the unreliable timeframes.

See above about the 18:30 forecast 7c to 9c in the south on Xmas day. This will halt slide somewhat helped by cloudy nights.

[Snowly does it]

See above about the 18:30 forecast 7c to 9c in the south on Xmas day. This will halt slide somewhat helped by cloudy nights.

Yes although not all areas in the CET will record that and the day inclusive of the night should be below average (7 being a good benchmark for daytime averages around Xmas)

Unlikely to cause a rise in the position at that time anyway (night included)