December CET

[The PIT]

Still waiting for the first air frost.

[Stratos Ferric]

All is normal down here...sub zero 2 nights running. No difference to the norm

BFTP

Blast. I take it that that's "normal" as in 'frost is now scarce and all we've been able to muster since early November is the last two nights' worth'?

I'm sure that you wouldn't suggest that a CET up at around 9C is in any way, shape or form "normal" for early December? How you can suggest "no difference to the norm" - unless you're using a snapshot of the last two days which are something of a normal (though not cold) oasis in a tropical wilderness - given the persistent mildness is beyond me, unless you're continuing what seems to me to be a deliberate stance of contrariness. You do bandy about phrases like "normal" or "no unusual" or "not remarkable" withouth ever justifying your argument. If there was not a welter of infor to the contrary then fair enough, but there is I'm afriad - hence the challenge.

[Weather-history]

Wettest Decembers since 1766 for England and Wales

193.9mm 1876

190.8mm 1914

185.6mm 1868

184.9mm 1915

183.4mm 1834

179.0mm 1929

173.1mm 1965

172.8mm 1978

172.1mm 1993

169.6mm 1911

166.0mm 1821

164.9mm 1959

159.1mm 1979

149.3mm 1989

147.5mm 2002

146.7mm 1919

145.8mm 1803

145.2mm 1886

144.4mm 1779

142.4mm 1986

142.4mm 1999

142.2mm 2000

[Stratos Ferric]

I think the annual record looks a banker now, whilst an 8 plus CET return looks unlikely from this mornings output.

I can't help thinking we'll get something colder before the year end, though there is nothing in the fundamentals to suggest that this must be so. If we don't then the first thing to go, before anything else, would be the December record. We only need 7.8 from here in for that to fall. Using Metcheck, which will have factored in a cooler night (though that's the last one of those for a while), it's just above 8.

FOOTNOTE - strange indeed to be using a phrase like "we only need 7.8..." in early December and not really thinking of this as in any way remarkable.

...of course it's pure speculation at present, though certainly not wildly so - but if December came in at 7.5C then the last six months would have included individual months which, in comparison with their calendar precedents, would rank 1st, 3rd, 5th and 5th. In a series lasting 340 years, all other things being equal you would expect a single top ten month once per thirty years. To have four top five months in one year, let alone one six month period, genuinely is remarkable and absolutely without not only precedent, but near precedent.

Edited December 10, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[Snowly does it]

I can't help thinking we'll get something colder before the year end, though there is nothing in the fundamentals to suggest that this must be so. If we don't then the first thing to go, before anything else, would be the December record. We only need 7.8 from here in for that to fall. Using Metcheck, which will have factored in a cooler night (though that's the last one of those for a while), it's just above 8.

FOOTNOTE - strange indeed to be using a phrase like "we only need 7.8..." in early December and not really thinking of this as in any way remarkable.

Bit more than that I'd say SF, Phillips will likely show us at about 8.1 up to today so 8.1 or just above required right through. This week should see an average of around 9-10 if nights stay as mild as GFS projects and then afterwards likely cooler looking at the most recent runs.

A CET in the 7s looks likely to me now unless we get one of the colder cold snaps of recent runs.

I would consider 7.8 remarkable right through!

This week aside December has begun much as November did in opposite.

[Stratos Ferric]

Bit more than that I'd say SF, Phillips will likely show us at about 8.1 up to today so 8.1 or just above required right through. This week should see an average of around 9-10 if nights stay as mild as GFS projects and then afterwards likely cooler looking at the most recent runs.

A CET in the 7s looks likely to me now unless we get one of the colder cold snaps of recent runs.

I would consider 7.8 remarkable right through!

This week aside December has begun much as November did in opposite.

Given the discussions a few of us were having in September and October, which included the not altogether unreasonable suggestion from some quarters that we might still dip under 10 for the year, and certainly that we might have another annual fall on the previous year, it is testimony to the continuing warmth that the debate has moved so far. It's no longer "will we get a new annual record" so much as "how much will we break the old record by"?

[Snowly does it]

Given the discussions a few of us were having in September and October, which included the not altogether unreasonable suggestion from some quarters that we might still dip under 10 for the year, and certainly that we might have another annual fall on the previous year, it is testimony to the continuing warmth that the debate has moved so far. It's no longer "will we get a new annual record" so much as "how much will we break the old record by"?

True enough.

Global Warming appears to be having some limited effect on our climate :lol:

[Stratos Ferric]

True enough.

Global Warming appears to be having some limited effect on our climate :lol:

I would genuinely worry if we don't get a correction soon. At any other time one of the biggest arguments for a markedly cold Jan / Feb would be the recent warmth. If there is no correction then I would start shunting a "tipping point" hypothesis which would make next year one to watch very carefully, particularly as a number of factors ordinarily supportive of a colder cycle will be starting to kick in.

[Snowly does it]

I would genuinely worry if we don't get a correction soon. At any other time one of the biggest arguments for a markedly cold Jan / Feb would be the recent warmth. If there is no correction then I would start shunting a "tipping point" hypothesis which would make next year one to watch very carefully, particularly as a number of factors ordinarily supportive of a colder cycle will be starting to kick in.

No disagreement here, getting rather long in the tooth now to be written off as a positive blip in an upward trend....

Humanity will reap what it sows.

[Stratos Ferric]

No argument from me there. Its getting rather long in the tooth now to be just a statistical blip in an established warming trend.

It is, but even so there would still be a correction sooner or later, doubtless in summer by which time it's either use nor ornament.

[Snowly does it]

It is, but even so there would still be a correction sooner or later, doubtless in summer by which time it's either use nor ornament.

Wouldn't bother me so much as I hate hot weather but I see your point yes.

We'll see, I don't think we'll get an 11 this year or a record December but this week will certainly see us ahead of target I'd say, its all down to the 15th onwards and whether that Atlantic High plays for cold or denegrates the festival with western filth.

[guitarnutter]

climate uk

[Roger J Smith]

The past 48 hours seem to be the kind of event that usually forms the coldest period of a record warmth month, if you see what I'm getting at. This week will clearly push the CET back into the 9-10 range, then it's hang on Sloopy for yours truly with the audacious 8.3 prediction (or was it 8.2, I forget, got me a fair cushion to play with). I like those 12 C days in deep FI, even though it must seem like the grinch who stole Christmas.

The cold air is around Lake Baikal now, no more than a four-day train ride if you make all the right connections. This won't, so more like 24 days.

Seriously, 7.7-8.2 looks plausible for the month to me.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The past 48 hours seem to be the kind of event that usually forms the coldest period of a record warmth month, if you see what I'm getting at. This week will clearly push the CET back into the 9-10 range, then it's hang on Sloopy for yours truly with the audacious 8.3 prediction (or was it 8.2, I forget, got me a fair cushion to play with). I like those 12 C days in deep FI, even though it must seem like the grinch who stole Christmas.

The cold air is around Lake Baikal now, no more than a four-day train ride if you make all the right connections. This won't, so more like 24 days.

Seriously, 7.7-8.2 looks plausible for the month to me.

Hi Roger

You adjusted to 8.3C.....so do you still see a southerly flow developing rather than WSW'ly.

BFTP

[Snowly does it]

The past 48 hours seem to be the kind of event that usually forms the coldest period of a record warmth month, if you see what I'm getting at. This week will clearly push the CET back into the 9-10 range, then it's hang on Sloopy for yours truly with the audacious 8.3 prediction (or was it 8.2, I forget, got me a fair cushion to play with). I like those 12 C days in deep FI, even though it must seem like the grinch who stole Christmas.

The cold air is around Lake Baikal now, no more than a four-day train ride if you make all the right connections. This won't, so more like 24 days.

Seriously, 7.7-8.2 looks plausible for the month to me.

Not so sure it will get to over 9 Roger. It would need 10.8 per day Monday-Friday (when the mild spell looks set to end) to be 9 exactly (thats assuming 8.1 after today which seems right to me). Unlikely to hit that Tuesday or Wednesday, Weds night-Thurs it should and probably Thurs-Fri. Maybe 8.8 by the 15th I think then I favour it falling steadily for the most part thorgh to the New Year. 6-7.5 final output.

[Roger J Smith]

No change in general thinking about flow patterns, just a feeling as I looked at the actual situation late November that things would start very mild, and the SW to WSW flow would be mild enough to maintain a high number. I checked the 1934 and 1974 archived maps (before making the forecast) and felt that most of those maps were more westerly than southerly, although persistent low pressure west of Ireland was the key to 1934 while 1974 looked more like a mega-Bartlett.

My guess of 8.3 may still prove too high, it all depends on whether another very mild spell develops with the new moon southern max events, and perhaps I should have stayed closer to the original punt in the LRF (5.5-6.0), but I'm learning that WSW can be the mildest flow for central England in particular (some downsloping across Welsh mountains), while southeast England can be closer to the continental high and thus get some clearer nights and a less pronounced positive anomaly. Whatever the details, I think a major pattern change is still in the works, sometime fairly early in January.

This rather reminds me of a long distance race, Tinybill went out very fast and faded a little, now I'm a little in front of him and the pack is quite comfortable, waiting for the moment when I fade back towards them to make their move. But will they leave it too late? Or will my shoe come off and then I won't be anywhere near the leaders after that? At least it's interesting, November was sort of monkey in the middle.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

I can now totaly agree that my 4.5 will not be met. I think we will be lucky to get a C.E.T below 7!!!

SM06

[Stargazer]

Still hanging on in there for some colder weather around or after Christmas for my punt of 6.1. However, I must admit my punt's looking a little low already!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Without trying to look into anything specific, nor to try and add any false hope...but havent we seen a CET drop of around 1oC over just the weekend?

[Stratos Ferric]

Without trying to look into anything specific, nor to try and add any false hope...but havent we seen a CET drop of around 1oC over just the weekend?

Well yes, but that from a level that would have been impossible to maintain. I think things have moved from being almost beyond belief back to merely scarcely believeable. Also, with each passing day, and each fraction off the latest mean, it does get harder to reduce the average further.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No change in general thinking about flow patterns, just a feeling as I looked at the actual situation late November that things would start very mild, and the SW to WSW flow would be mild enough to maintain a high number. I checked the 1934 and 1974 archived maps (before making the forecast) and felt that most of those maps were more westerly than southerly, although persistent low pressure west of Ireland was the key to 1934 while 1974 looked more like a mega-Bartlett.

My guess of 8.3 may still prove too high, it all depends on whether another very mild spell develops with the new moon southern max events, and perhaps I should have stayed closer to the original punt in the LRF (5.5-6.0), but I'm learning that WSW can be the mildest flow for central England in particular (some downsloping across Welsh mountains), while southeast England can be closer to the continental high and thus get some clearer nights and a less pronounced positive anomaly. Whatever the details, I think a major pattern change is still in the works, sometime fairly early in January.

Roger

Thanks for that. I think the way the cold has plunged into the Atlantic that the mild WSW regime will be just that...mild but not excessive. I agree with early Jan and the Northern Max/FM event will be the catalyst. I have gone for 6.3C as I think WSW will dominate and about 1c above norm will follow in this set up....but like you say the cold is shifting towards

BFTP

[Snowly does it]

Interesting...

Phillip has the CET running on Manley at 8.2 to the 10th, but he has a min reading for Saturday into Sunday of 5 degrees, surely everywhere fell below that during the night? Clearly not from the graph but that does surprise me.

[JohnAcc]

This is the TOP 40 league table as we stand today. The December CET MTD figure of 8.2 is taken from philip eden's site. All to play for still with Tiny Bill dropping off the pace after a frantic start. Rojer's made his dash for the finish line but will it be too soon.........................................

# Vrn Name

1 0.10 Rojer J Smith

2 -0.90 Derby4Life

3 -1.10 Stephen Prudence

4 -1.10 Paul

5 -1.20 Weatherwise

6 -1.40 West Is Best

7 -1.50 Scorcher

8 -1.50 Snowray

9 -1.60 JohnaAcc

10 -1.70 ChillyMilly

11 1.70 TinyBill

12 -1.80 StormChaser1

13 -1.80 Tom Partis

14 -1.90 BFTP

15 -1.90 Chris L

16 -1.90 GuitarNutter

17 -2.00 Cheeky Monkey

18 -2.00 Gavin P

19 -2.00 Osmposm

20 -2.10 Stargazer

21 -2.10 Nigelonline

22 -2.10 Somerset Squall

23 -2.20 Evo

24 -2.20 The Pit

25 -2.20 Reef

26 -2.20 Norrance

27 -2.20 Senior Ridge

28 -2.30 SnowyOwl9

29 -2.30 Anti-Mild

30 -2.30 Mr Data

31 -2.40 SteveB

32 -2.40 The Penguin

33 -2.50 PersianPaladin

34 -2.50 Paul Sherman

35 -2.50 Joneseye

36 -2.60 Summer Blizzard

37 -2.60 Don

38 -2.60 Jackone

39 -2.60 Stratos Ferric

40 -2.70 Cymru

[The PIT]

Damn I thought my 6c was a good call. Looks like being too too low. :blink: :blink:

[summer blizzard]

I am actually beggining to think that even my estimate may be too high, this week will probably push the CET up to around 8.5C, but with a potent northerly next weekend knocking the CET back to around 8C and an inversion following, something in the 3C+ range is still possible, though i suspect an outcome around average is most likely.