December CET

[Weather-history]

Currently 8.6C on the Manley CET, not rounded up http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0612.htm

8.7C on NW tracker.

I'd be interested to know (Kevin?) of warmer first halves of December.

The figures I have

1898: 9.2

1918: 9.1

1934: 9.1

1979: 8.7

2000: 9.1

Edited December 15, 2006 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Intresing stats Kevin, esp becuase 2 of those managed to still get a CET below 6C.

anyway agree with SF, not very cold night as the air isn't really that cold, but there is a chance that if we get some long lasting fog that some places could well struggle to get much above 2-3C by day where it lingers.

[guitarnutter]

hopefully the cold drags cet down

[Stratos Ferric]

Intresing stats Kevin, esp becuase 2 of those managed to still get a CET below 6C.

anyway agree with SF, not very cold night as the air isn't really that cold, but there is a chance that if we get some long lasting fog that some places could well struggle to get much above 2-3C by day where it lingers.

Mmmm, and by that wispy and tenuous prospect does anything but another remarkably mild month hang. Staggering that 11C for the year is still very much within touching distance.

[Snowly does it]

Mmmm, and by that wispy and tenuous prospect does anything but another remarkably mild month hang. Staggering that 11C for the year is still very much within touching distance.

Staggering indeed but looking a rank outsider with coming cooler spell. Would take some extraodinary late month heat to shift it past the 8.3 required.

10.75-10.8 looks good to me

[Stratos Ferric]

Staggering indeed but looking a rank outsider with coming cooler spell. Would take some extraodinary late month heat to shift it past the 8.3 required.

10.75-10.8 looks good to me

As inflationary statements go that's up there with Nigel Lawson's infamous decision to announce the end of double MIRAS six months before the date - thereby prompting a huge run on property in late 1988 the repercussions of which are still felt today. I think the cool spell would better be described as one day of temperatures in line with the seasonal norm. There's a lot of fanciful stuff on here about how cold the HP might be. Not cold at all would be the likeliest answer.

I tend to agree we probably won't quite make 11, however 10.9 is well in bounds - we could afford the second half of the month to be around average and still get close to that mark. Taking the midline from my first extrapolation for the month would deliver around 10.92.

[Snowly does it]

As inflationary statements go that's up there with Nigel Lawson's infamous decision to announce the end of double MIRAS six months before the date - thereby prompting a huge run on property in late 1988 the repercussions of which are still felt today. I think the cool spell would better be described as one day of temperatures in line with the seasonal norm. There's a lot of fanciful stuff on here about how cold the HP might be. Not cold at all would be the likeliest answer.

I tend to agree we probably won't quite make 11, however 10.9 is well in bounds - we could afford the second half of the month to be around average and still get close to that mark. Taking the midline from my first extrapolation for the month would deliver around 10.92.

We'll see. And cooler spells tend to be cooler than the spell which preceeded them. Thats why I said cooler and not cold, but I am sure you probably knew that and just thought you'd be playful with an old maid in her weaver's cottage in the wilds.

Best to judge the HP after the event rather than before I'd say, rather than writing off what is said due to vastly superior rune reading skills.

[Roger J Smith]

My shoes are feeling just a little bit loose, uh-oh, what's that priest doing, look out man, can't you see I'm in a race here?

[West is Best]

If you want double or quits on that steak Richard, I am happy to say no higher than 6.7 for December on Phillip or the Hadley calcs

Does this bet still stand Snowmaiden? If so you're on!

I reckon there's still an outside chance of threatening the December record. The CET will dip a bit over the next few days, but probably not very radically. The final week will then be the clincher. If we're back to the mild south-westerlies or even southerlies then there really is every chance of a month topping 8C.

The yearly record is a foregone conclusion.

[Snowly does it]

Does this bet still stand Snowmaiden? If so you're on!

I reckon there's still an outside chance of threatening the December record. The CET will dip a bit over the next few days, but probably not very radically. The final week will then be the clincher. If we're back to the mild south-westerlies or even southerlies then there really is every chance of a month topping 8C.

The yearly record is a foregone conclusion.

Go on then, why not?

Bet is on, more fun and games for this month

[kold weather]

I'd be pretty suprised if the Dec record was to fall now, even if we were to have a warmer set-up after xmas eve (looks like thats when the best chanc eof milder stuff coming in, then again even that isn't looking like it'll last to long according to this morning's models!) The CEt this morning is 8.6C and for a good 7-10 day period (depending on what model you believe!) looks like we'll have pretty cool nights and days which will reduce that temp a good bit.

Record is still possible for Dec, but right now its probably got the same percent chance as a CETbelow 6.5C, which isn't very high!

(ps, at this point November 2005 was 3.6C above average according to the net-weather temp tracker, and obviously that mont ended up below average...so its still not to late, but would require a monster set-up from now on I suspect.)

Edited December 16, 2006 by kold weather

[The PIT]

I'd be pretty suprised if the Dec record was to fall now, even if we were to have a warmer set-up after xmas eve (looks like thats when the best chanc eof milder stuff coming in, then again even that isn't looking like it'll last to long according to this morning's models!) The CEt this morning is 8.6C and for a good 7-10 day period (depending on what model you believe!) looks like we'll have pretty cool nights and days which will reduce that temp a good bit.

Record is still possible for Dec, but right now its probably got the same percent chance as a CETbelow 6.5C, which isn't very high!

(ps, at this point November 2005 was 3.6C above average according to the net-weather temp tracker, and obviously that mont ended up below average...so its still not to late, but would require a monster set-up from now on I suspect.)

Problem is theres no cold around on the models. May get some frosts depending on the cloud cover and day time temps around average.

[kold weather]

I wouldn't use the word cold Pit, but its certainly below average for at least the next 7 days if we use the CET average, probably by about 1C overall. just doing some sums for the December CET, IF we see the next 7 days see a CET return of 5C (it'll be lower then that for sure, but I'll go wit hthe very high side just in case.) then it would still require a CET of 12C for the remianing days of the month to break the record and the only set-up that can do that is a barteltt, and an intense one at that.

So while not cold, I dare say this period will put to rest the chance sof a record Dec, though chances ar eit's still going to be a VERY mild month, odds on at 2C above I'd guess which is stunning, then again, this year has really smashed quite a few of those sorts of records...changing...

(saying that, just seen the 06z, If that run were to come off, then a CEt below 6.5C would be probable!)

Edited December 16, 2006 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

I agree that we are goin to see a large drop in the CET, this weekend alone looks as though it will knock the CET back to around 8.2C, afterward, the next five days look like recording a quite low CET with little cloud except for tuesday night, with an increasing possibility of fog during thursday and friday and the possibility of a northerly afterward, so i would still punt for a CET less than 6C, but more than 5C.

[West is Best]

I wouldn't use the word cold Pit, but its certainly below average for at least the next 7 days

I wouldn't use the word 'certainly'. It will be below 8.6C, but I'm not certain it will be below average for the next 7 days.

[kold weather]

Well I suspect most days will be below 7C, which is the average for December for England anyway, though for places like London no doubt its a little higher then even that. I wouldn't say daytime temps wil lbe very below average but a good 1-2C below the average daytime temps do look likely.

[Stratos Ferric]

I'd be pretty suprised if the Dec record was to fall now, even if we were to have a warmer set-up after xmas eve (looks like thats when the best chanc eof milder stuff coming in, then again even that isn't looking like it'll last to long according to this morning's models!) The CEt this morning is 8.6C and for a good 7-10 day period (depending on what model you believe!) looks like we'll have pretty cool nights and days which will reduce that temp a good bit.

Record is still possible for Dec, but right now its probably got the same percent chance as a CETbelow 6.5C, which isn't very high!

(ps, at this point November 2005 was 3.6C above average according to the net-weather temp tracker, and obviously that mont ended up below average...so its still not to late, but would require a monster set-up from now on I suspect.)

I have to say cold I never trust GFS for temperatures in certain situations. Even if we get some clear nights, if the days are sunny then the daily mean is likely to in the 4-5 range; the inroads that would make in the overall monthly CET are not insignificant, but neither are they large enough to mean that a new record would be out of reach. Plus, as we've already said, the system could easily be cloudy, particularly with air circulating off the Atlantic. I tend to agree that I don't think we'll quite get the record, but again, as you suggest, neither can it be ruled out yet.

[Optimus Prime]

The current CET is 8.5 according to Metcheck. The period 16th-20 December will have an average temperature of 3.55c. Around 1.9c below average for this time of the month.

Going by this the CET is likely to be around 7.4c by the 20th....2.3c above the 71-000 average or 2.8c above the 61-90 average.

Interestingly (or not) the GFs has progged an average temperature of 1.80c from now through to the end of the month, that would mean December would end up at 5.2c.

[kold weather]

Yep Sf, it doesn't look cold but I think cool with some days that do fit the cold category is probably apt enough to descrbie the next 7 days.

Op, that would be one hell of a come-down if that hpapened, certainly would be a turn-up and intrestingly two milder Dec's at this point mamanged to come out below 6C, so if we were to get a 06z set-up then a CET below 1C above average would be possible.

Then again I think the 06z is over-doing the cold after xmas day a little myself.

[Stratos Ferric]

Yep Sf, it doesn't look cold but I think cool with some days that do fit the cold category is probably apt enough to descrbie the next 7 days.

Op, that would be one hell of a come-down if that hpapened, certainly would be a turn-up and intrestingly two milder Dec's at this point mamanged to come out below 6C, so if we were to get a 06z set-up then a CET below 1C above average would be possible.

Then again I think the 06z is over-doing the cold after xmas day a little myself.

Just checking the 850 projections, there's nothing cold next week; the 850 level is up around 1.5k and the temps around freezing; with SALR that's a surface around 8-10, say. Next week hinges on how clear the nights are, and whether we get any lying fog. Thereafter, if we pull in something more continental, though not cold the air will be drier. Next weekend I'd back colder nights, and potentially more fog, particularly with clear nights over still very wet ground. By Christmas Day though, as currently projected, the source is well S, and basically warm.

Checking the uppers, I'm struck by how tight to the pole the jet is right the way around the globe; the pool of cold air is loking very small this year, and the surface anomalies verify this. I could look at the jet prog for late next week and imagine the kind of return loop to our E that we had post Christmas last year, and which gave a good winter interlude. It might happen, but this would require the NE leg of the jet (which is keeping N Russia so warm) to die back - no definitive signs of that happening I'm afraid, which means that any HP is, as projected, shunted further S and rather ridged - Bartlett territory.

[Snowly does it]

Assuming the CET stands at 8.7 to the 15th, a CET return of 7.73 or so is required through the end of the month to get a new record.

Put another way, if the next 7 days come in at a rather conservative 6, then equal to the record temperatures for 10 days solid would bring the CET in at the record.

A CET for the remainder of the month at the follwoing levels would generate

8 - 8.34

7 - 7.83

6 - 7.31

5 - 6.79

4 - 6.28

3 - 5.76

2 - 5.25

1 - 4.73

FREEZING (Brrrrr, yay!) - 4.21

There we have it, a remarkably unlikely 16 day period of freezing weather would bring us in an unimpressive 0.89 below the warmer 71-00 mean.

Looks like 2 steaks for WiB as I would seriously go for 6.9 based on recent output, no extended SWerlies on show, no Bartlett drawing SWerlies on show and HP in charge. If thats not screaming average to slightly below/above then I don't know what is.

Record December not impossible but far from likely given the recent output, we are 'only' 0.6 above the record after an extended period of extraordinary overnight and daytime warmth which has just ended.

[kold weather]

Yep, the best chance for cold days wil lprobably be next weekend as the modified artic air finds its way into the circulation of the HP cell and gets dragged slowly eastwards, and is inttroduced probably sometime on Thursday/Friday.

As for the artic, off topic but you only have to see how ultra positive the AO is right now, though saying that Greenland does look like is gonna cool quite alot over the next 7 days.

[kold weather]

December record now looks like its going to be out of reach by xmas say given the way the trend is for the temps up till then to keep decreasing, and maxes now by the met-office for the rest of the week are between 2-5C for central England and colder mins as well from tonight onwards will ensure that the temps needed for a record december CET would be extremely improbable even if we were to get a very mild set-up.

After this cold set-up, it does look like we are going to get into a milder set-up, how mild is still uncertian though I doubt it'll be nearly enough for us to break the record, it would have to have a 6 day stint with average temps a good 1C above that of last weeks Bartlett...and thats providing the average CEt for the next 7 days is 5C, which is WAY to high, more likely to be around the 2-4C mark depending on how cold the nights go after tonight.

Saying that, still a good chance of this being in the top 5 mildest ever, and a very good chanc eof it being in the top 10.

Edited December 18, 2006 by kold weather

[VillagePlank]

Looking at the GFS 2m output I'd suggest a CET of 1.67C for the remainder of this week (until Sunday) After that though, a progged CET of around 7.5C to finish the month off.

Edited December 18, 2006 by Geludiligo

[West is Best]

December record now looks like its going to be out of reach by xmas

Yes probably, but I'm circumspect on this. I do think you and a couple of others are over-egging the night-time minima, although the day-time temps will be relatively low. So the CET will be pegged back, but I don't suppose it will be below 7C by next Sunday, which leaves another full 7 days of the month. Bit early to decide what will happen probably. 8.1C does look a little out of reach I guess.