Will it snow in......?

[davehsug]

onionslingthorpe, Yorkshire

He he this is fun PP what was that supposed to be?

[Sawel]

I'm sorry, but I have to say I won't know unless we get decent agreement on tomorrow's models!

If the UKMO and GFS are right, then I'd say "yes", certainly overnight, though possibly thawing in sunshine during the day, on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, if the ECMWF is right then it looks fairly unlikely.

A similar assessment for Dundee, although there I'd expect any lying snow to stick around all day, with lower temperatures due to being further from the coast.

Thanks TWS.

I take it I can put Dundee alongside Edinburgh and Aberdeen on your regional thoughts for snow?

Edited February 4, 2007 by Sawel

[James M]

Well what about Saddleworth 208m up?

[pinball wizard]

I think this is very funny

This is due to the swear filter taking out the four letter word and replacing it with prune.

shall we have a competition to think of almost rude names for places to see what our swear filter comes up with?

Thats a fantastic idea, lets start with the Bavarian village of semolina...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thanks TWS.

I take it I can put Dundee alongside Edinburgh and Aberdeen on your regional thoughts for snow?

Not quite in the case of Mon-Weds, Aberdeen is more certain to get snow as it's directly exposed to the first waves of snow showers coming down on the northerly airstream. I'd say that for snow potential Dundee falls somewhere between Aberdeen and the N Yorkshire coast.

Edinburgh is similar in likelihood to the North Yorkshire coast IMO.

For Thursday (if that's what you're thinking of) then yes, it's probably about level with Aberdeen and Edinburgh as John suggested.

[Sawel]

Thanks TWS and John. Let's hope the 18z doesn't follow the ECM path.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It looks very similar to the GFS 12Z and also the UKMO out to Wednesday- so a pretty conclusive answer there!

[Zerouali lives]

Thanks TWS and John. Let's hope the 18z doesn't follow the ECM path.

I've found over the years that Dundee does much better in easterly setups than Aberdeen. I can think of the weak easterly during late February 2005. Hardly any snow in Aberdeen (bit too mild) but from Stonehaven to Perth it was white and noticeably colder in Dundee when I got off the train. So forget about Monday/Tuesday for snow (that's for me and Viking only! lol) and look forward to Thu/Fri!

[JordanF]

What are the chances for Scarborough? (East coast of North Yorkshire)

[Sawel]

I've found over the years that Dundee does much better in easterly setups than Aberdeen. I can think of the weak easterly during late February 2005. Hardly any snow in Aberdeen (bit too mild) but from Stonehaven to Perth it was white and noticeably colder in Dundee when I got off the train. So forget about Monday/Tuesday for snow (that's for me and Viking only! lol) and look forward to Thu/Fri!

Dundee does well in Easterlies. When there's a direct Northerly, we get nothing whereas Aberdeen can get plastered, but when the wind swings around to the East, we can get some good snowfalls here. Dundee is about 8-10 miles inland whereas Aberdeen is bang on the coast, so it's less marginal for us and colder in these setups than Aberdeen.

I remember the "weak easterly" of February 2005 really well because we got some good snowfalls here, whereas the vast majority of people on here complaining of a non-event whereas 2 nights in a row we had heavy snowfalls.

TWS- yeah thank god the 18z was NOTHING like the ECM. I'm quite relieved!

[Simon SWales]

Hi, I live in Brynmawr (365m asl) in S E Wales. Are we too far south ot in for a pasting?

[Sawel]

Hi, I live in Brynmawr (365m asl) in S E Wales. Are we too far south ot in for a pasting?

You'd probably be too high up at that altitude with all the snow clouds down below you.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Come on....Cumbrian Pennines....I'm not here, so it's bound to.

[Cookie]

Havent had a drop hear yet. for all of you who thought we'd get some this far north your wrong...

[tugmistress]

you and me both cookie .... we had a few sleety showers last time round but that was it B)

so come on Mr Holmes and Mr Prudence and Mr TWS ... Scotland is a mighty big place and your generalisation of the country doesn't make it clear whether i will get any or not, anywhere north of Aberdeen/Inverness (delete as appropriate) seems to get forgotten about lol

[Mandy Langlands]

What about here in Carnoustie, B)

[BristolBlizzard]

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayfor...istol&day=3

If that came off I would spam ''IM A LOSER'' on these forums for a week B)

[SP1986]

The forecasting team are very lucky actually, currently. Although it is difficult to forecast the absolute specifics of where any snow will be, the setup the models show is actually staying within the limits for a potential overview forecast of what could happen. In this situation it will be hit and miss, some people will be elated, some bitterly disappointed. As the more experienced members on the forecast team know though these kinds of events can potentially cause some surprises and for the not so experienced, some disappointments too! It's one the forecast team are definitely looking at with the view to give the most accurate forecasts we can in the nature of the event.

[tom_f123]

what about here lol

[Supercell]

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayfor...istol&day=3

If that came off I would spam ''IM A LOSER'' on these forums for a week B)

Very interesting. They have converted the rainfall to the snowfall equivalent. According to that, I will receive 16.3cm of snow on Thursday More than twice as much as the 'special' January 2004 Thundersnow event.

[SP1986]

you and me both cookie .... we had a few sleety showers last time round but that was it B)

so come on Mr Holmes and Mr Prudence and Mr TWS ... Scotland is a mighty big place and your generalisation of the country doesn't make it clear whether i will get any or not, anywhere north of Aberdeen/Inverness (delete as appropriate) seems to get forgotten about lol

Well tomorrow north of there could see some wintry showers, mostly hail and sleet I would imagine though, maybe a little snow if precipitation rises over any west facing hills. It really will be a wintry mix tomorrow though, you'll probably see rain, sleet, snow and hail all in a shower - itll be one of those.

Northern Scotland is a tough one though because band travelling southwest to northeast often enter around Prestwick and move northeast, often either getting stuck due to the topography creating orographic rainfall, or dying out due to the Grampians and the Highlands generally. Difficult one, but if those bands get over the Highlands before the milder air sets in then snow is almost certain. It's those stumbling blocks that will have to be watched cometh the hour though.

what about here lol

Definitely a chance considering you are nearly 200m above sea level, and any potential rainband will start as snow at least, depending on how the synoptics set up, in a good position though as you will be one the higher parts of the midlands.

[wintermaster]

will it snow in Merseyside o say yes please

[Sawel]

What about here in Carnoustie,

Going by the latest model output, you could see some snowfall. Although you're on the coast, you're in an exposed position to pick up showers being blown in from an Easterly/South Easterly wind.

[SP1986]

will it snow in Merseyside o say yes please

I could go on about the local topography and how it affects Merseyside all night, as it is VERY diverse.

I will so a microcast for different areas of Merseyside.

First of all Woolton is very well set up as it's relatively high up, it's inland in terms of Liverpool, and Woolton/Childwall/Gateacre area gets twice as much snow as many other areas of Merseyside in the winter because of this.

I think Woolton will see a bit of snow if the setup allows it, especially around Woolton Hill, problem is the area tends to suffer from high humidity on a local scale and high dewpoints also because it sticks out over Liverpool which could in this situation limit snow. However I'm going to say that yes Woolton should see sleet or wet snow off the current model outputs, but only localised and very borderline.

Elsewhere I think Sefton will see rain in any breakdown setup, as well as St Helens seeing rain. The only other areas in Merseyside I can see having snow is the higher parts of Knowsley, so for example Hag Brow although problem being is this area is uninhabited. Also perhaps Hightown and the higher end of Billinge could see some snow.

In the other half of Merseyside, Wirral is unlikely to bear snow although the higher areas of peninsula may see some short term wet snow or sleet, if conditions are favourable, so Thurstaston Hill, Heswall, and Caldy and Oxton will be prime spots in the Wirral but here it is unlikely snow will settle.

Basically if you're in Merseyside and want to go looking for snow (conditions allowing), the best areas to go are Northeast, or east - anywhere away from the coast. Any snow will be very localised.

[Snow Man]

I can probably write Preston off for snow? for the two years I've lived here now, no snow, this is why University should be back home!

Edited February 5, 2007 by Snow Man