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Day 6 Discussion

Paul Sherman

By Paul Sherman
in Storm Chase USA

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    Posted

    Hi Guys, Possible upgrade to HIGH Today, this could be a very dangerous Situation, do not think i have ever seen a discussion like this, could be 12-14 hours of chasing with dangerous Long Track Tornadoes Possible.

    post-24-1178346110_thumb.png

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

    VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL

    SD...MUCH OF NEBRASKA...MUCH OF KS...AND NWRN OK...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM

    WEST TX...INTO SOUTH ND AND PORTIONS OF IA/MO...

    ...ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS

    EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE

    HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED...

    LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SUCH THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF

    SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. EARLY

    MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION

    WITH 4-CORNERS LOW IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS AZ/NM

    AND WILL SOON EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE

    WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID DEEP CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE

    CNTRL PLAINS...MUCH OF IT SHOULD BE SEVERE. THIS EARLY MORNING

    CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS NNEWD

    ACROSS NEB INTO SD. ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE

    SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN NATURE...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS

    THE TX PANHANDLE...NWD INTO WRN KS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO

    BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEFORE 18Z AND THUS THE TORNADO

    POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY MID

    DAY. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG AND

    STORM MOTIONS WILL BE QUITE FAST...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT ACROSS

    THE MDT RISK REGION. LATEST THINKING IS INITIAL CLUSTER OF SEVERE

    SUPERCELLS WILL BE HEAVILY CONCENTRATED ACROSS NRN KS...NWD INTO NEB

    AND SRN SD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DISRUPT

    AIRMASS RECOVERY...HOWEVER SOUTH-NORTH STORM MOTIONS WILL PROVE

    FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY STORMS TO ORGANIZE OVER KS THEN

    SPREAD INTO THIS REGION. TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX IS

    SUCH THAT DRYLINE ACROSS SWRN KS INTO NWRN TX WILL BE WITHIN WEAK

    SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING

    ALONG/WEST OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED

    SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. NEEDLESS TO

    SAY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH ACROSS

    KS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE WILL DO SO

    WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND

    VERY LARGE HAIL.

    DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...A SECONDARY SPEED MAX WILL

    EJECT ACROSS SRN AZ/NM TOWARD THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE

    OVER WEST TX. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF SEVERE

    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WEST TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL

    THEN DEVELOP/MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG FAVORABLE SFC BOUNDARY INTO WRN

    OK/CNTRL KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR

    SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...THOUGH STORM MERGERS MAY BE COMMON. LARGE

    HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS

    CONVECTION.

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    MAF Seasoned

    MAF

    Posted
  • Location: SE London
    • Location: SE London
    Posted

    morning Paul. certainly looking good for some potential severe storms.

    ...ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS

    EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE

    HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED...

    hope the vehicles are covered for hailstone damage :(

    i like the comment

    ANY STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE WILL DO SO

    WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND

    VERY LARGE HAIL.

    :)

    hope the team stay safe

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    Greyowl Rookie

    Greyowl

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
    • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
    Posted

    Good luck for today guys. Hope you get to see some awesome weather. Take care.

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    NL Aficionado

    NL

    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    Posted

    SPC have issued high risk for severe storms today across Kansasand southern Nebraska

    Wow , what a weekend, the team could'nt have picked a better time to chase the plains..

    This weekend may go down in history!!

    Be extra careful out there..

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    Paul Sherman Veteran

    Paul Sherman

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    • Author
    Posted

    Guys, We are in a great position for today, Stevestorms team are just up the road in Pratt (Ks) and today could be VERY Dangerous, we have some amazing pictures from yesterday which i will try to upload inthe next hours.

    Paul Sherman

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    Greyowl Rookie

    Greyowl

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
    • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
    Posted

    Good luck Paul. Its looking good for you if a little hairy.

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    MAF Seasoned

    MAF

    Posted
  • Location: SE London
    • Location: SE London
    Posted

    looking forward to them Paul :)

    Well done to all the storm chasing team for keeping us glued to the progress of the current storm season out there :unknw:

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    Paul R Contributor

    Paul R

    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Unexpected gusts of wind, and cumulus clouds in rude and amusing shapes.
    • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
    Posted

    Looking explosive today, good luck you lot, and stay safe!

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    Roger J Smith Veteran

    Roger J Smith

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted

    Posted some ideas about today on the day 5 discussion, basically would say current satellite imagery showing new development in west central OK moving northeast, thinking that Medicine Lodge KS may be close to the best place to be for storm chase today. Good luck and stay safe.

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    Paul R Contributor

    Paul R

    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Unexpected gusts of wind, and cumulus clouds in rude and amusing shapes.
    • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
    Posted

    Might be interesting for some here:

    http://www.ksn.com/news/local/7166856.html

    Live feed from KSN weatherlab.

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    tinybill Seasoned

    tinybill

    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
    • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
    Posted
    I cant get the feed to play anything, is it working for you?

    *EDIT: It's working for me now*

    cant hear a thing

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    rc28 Newbie

    rc28

    Posted
  • Location: County Meath, Ireland
    • Location: County Meath, Ireland
    Posted
    cant hear a thing

    If you read the text underneath the streaming box it mention sthat sometimes there is no audio. I was watching it a few moments ago and they just had a quick 30second broadast to mention a tornado watch had been issued.

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    Paul R Contributor

    Paul R

    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Unexpected gusts of wind, and cumulus clouds in rude and amusing shapes.
    • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
    Posted

    Another update then, very short one. Said that a PDS tornado watch had been issued, so there must a very bad day of weather ahead.

    What are the CAPE values for today? Reason for asking is that last night I was looking at stuff about the May 3rd 1999 outbreak and apparently the CAPE values were up at around 6000 j/kg.

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    Paul R Contributor

    Paul R

    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Unexpected gusts of wind, and cumulus clouds in rude and amusing shapes.
    • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
    Posted

    First storms of the day starting to develop in NW Kansas.

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    Paul Sherman Veteran

    Paul Sherman

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    • Author
    Posted

    Cape values of about 4,500 to 5,000, we are just about to leave Alva, we have an enhanced Cumulus field just out to our west, we cannot go near to Greensburg today, National Gaurd pretty much have the whole area cordoned off, also the roads North and East of there are pretty devastated, so will initailly head towards Pratt (Ks) and see how things develop, but expect explosive storms within the next few hours

    Paul Sherman

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    MAF Seasoned

    MAF

    Posted
  • Location: SE London
    • Location: SE London
    Posted

    looking forward to the next update Paul

    Keep safe, and don't go upsetting those National Guards :o :D

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    Paul R Contributor

    Paul R

    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Unexpected gusts of wind, and cumulus clouds in rude and amusing shapes.
    • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
    Posted

    Good luck to you. CAPE seems bloody impressive today. Hope you can get some good footage. Happy chasing.

    EDIT: Something just popped up on KSN live feed. Storm in NW Kansas, Norton County area is showing signs of weak rotation and could produce a tornado at any time. The watch still stands, but the forecaster said that this could change to a warning within 30 minutes.

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    MAF Seasoned

    MAF

    Posted
  • Location: SE London
    • Location: SE London
    Posted

    NOAA currently issuing this for Pratt

    Pratt (Kansas)

    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

    1008 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

    ...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY...

    .STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL CONTINUE

    TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE DAY

    PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION, FAST MOVING WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND

    WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES. THE

    WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

    ww0232_radar_big.gif

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    NL Aficionado

    NL

    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    Posted

    Yahow,thats some lengthy watch man!! 12 hours 5 mins!! Probably be extented like it was last night..

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    Paul R Contributor

    Paul R

    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Unexpected gusts of wind, and cumulus clouds in rude and amusing shapes.
    • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
    Posted
    Yahow,thats some lengthy watch man!! 12 hours 5 mins!! Probably be extented like it was last night..

    Probably will be, already more storms breaking out in Western Kansas, a clear line of storms visible starting to intensify.

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    NL Aficionado

    NL

    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    Posted
    Probably will be, already more storms breaking out in Western Kansas, a clear line of storms visible starting to intensify.

    With temps in the mid 70's and only mid-day, can see some beasts developing quite rapidly..

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