Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian - I notice the surface pressure is listed at around 1032mb on the webcam - yet the GFS charts for the N Pole are indicating a value closer to 1015mb

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn061.html

is it possible the global model is under-estimating the pressure there - or do you think maybe the weather station pressure reading is too high?

Good to see on the latest 12z run that the PV is shown focused just N of Scandinavia for at least the next 5 days. Hopefully it can stick around there for a while.

B)

hI Beng,

Yes , too high. Nearer to 1020mb, I would expect.

C

[kippure]

Temperature at the pole near to -5C. Mean temperature for the last week in August is -7C. Sun getting lower in the sky as the Autumn Equinox approaches.

C

Hi Mr C . You couldnt post the link to that web cam please. Its a classic B)

[carinthian]

Hi Mr C . You couldnt post the link to that web cam please. Its a classic B)

Kipper,

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/data.html . This link should direct to North Pole realtime web cam ? Should get some nice images during the coming twighlight zone .

C

[beng]

Thanks Carinthian.

[parmenides3]

The latest NSIDC update: http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaicemin...0810_index.html

On the webcams at the North Pole: apparently, there have been several problems this year with all three of the various cams which are normally available. This means that some of the images in recent weeks may not have been showing base camp, and may have been 'old' images; worth keeping an eye on.

Apparently, base camp is now around 86 N, where it has drifted with the iced...

:)P

[cyclonic happiness]

I know that it may not be relevant, but, what was the extent of the ice cover during the winters of '62, '47 and '81? And does it have that much effect on the winters in the northern hemisphere?

[Gray-Wolf]

Question, are the temps we work on here 2m temps?

As far as I know the ocean does not instantly follow atmospheric temps (though has an influence, sure) ,so if warm (+c temps) continue to drift into ,and around the pole, will the water freeze just 'cause it's -7c 'above and outside the bath'?

My concerns are not that the rapidly changing and volatile atmospheric processes but the slow, long term influence of warming oceans and the constant move of the 10c water isotherm towards both poles and it's (the isotherm) reluctance to head for the equator come autumn.

No point cock-a-doodle-doing 'cause the 2m temp is sub zero if the water is still positive for longer each year.

[ScandiHigh]

Question to the experts:

Pockets of -10 Upper air starting to appear in the Arctic in the coming weekend (eg. East Siberian coast). Below zero surface temperatures are forecasted(GFS). Can we hope for an end to the rapid decline in ice cover and eventually an increase?

Edited August 28, 2007 by ScandiHigh

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Question, are the temps we work on here 2m temps?

As far as I know the ocean does not instantly follow atmospheric temps (though has an influence, sure) ,so if warm (+c temps) continue to drift into ,and around the pole, will the water freeze just 'cause it's -7c 'above and outside the bath'?

My concerns are not that the rapidly changing and volatile atmospheric processes but the slow, long term influence of warming oceans and the constant move of the 10c water isotherm towards both poles and it's (the isotherm) reluctance to head for the equator come autumn.

No point cock-a-doodle-doing 'cause the 2m temp is sub zero if the water is still positive for longer each year.

GW

That's what I've been going on about. The ice melt is down to precisely that IMO...warming oceans. I have a big concern about that.

BFTP

[mezzacyclone]

Question to the experts:

Pockets of -10 Upper air starting to appear in the Arctic in the coming weekend (eg. East Siberian coast). Below zero surface temperatures are forecasted(GFS). Can we hope for an end to the rapid decline in ice cover and eventually an increase?

I figure they'll comment that the Chukchi area anoms are so severe SH that losses will continue for 'a bit' if not 'a lot' longer than normal in this area this year!

[Gray-Wolf]

GW

That's what I've been going on about. The ice melt is down to precisely that IMO...warming oceans. I have a big concern about that.

BFTP

That and the year on year decline of multiyear ice as a result, I was going to say 'where will it all end' but I know only too well......

[cyclonic happiness]

So, if the pole were to lose all of it's ice at certain times of year, (and please don't think for a moment that I'm being flippant, I'm really not) what would be the supposed effect on our climate here in the uk? I just thought I'd ask this as the main stay of media reports and hype, never actually say?

[carinthian]

I know that it may not be relevant, but, what was the extent of the ice cover during the winters of '62, '47 and '81? And does it have that much effect on the winters in the northern hemisphere?

Hello,

Good question.

Satellite info was not available in 1947/62. Weather log reports do indicate a growth in Arctic Sea ice during the cold decade of the 1960s, peaking in the spring of 1968. Sea ice retreated in the the early 1970s with the winter polar ice limit the lowest in 1976 ( probably less than this past spring ). The late 70s and into the early 80s saw a return to much colder winters in Northern Europe and growth in the Arctic ice southern limit. I do think increase in Polar Ice in the Euro/ N. Russian sectors does have an effect on cold European winters. It is also interesting to note that temperatures were well above normal through much of Greenland during the coldest winter I can remember in 1962/63.

C

[cyclonic happiness]

I meant to add in my last post.... after all of the obvious things like mass flooding, displacement of arctic animal.

[cyclonic happiness]

Hello,

Good question.

Satellite info was not available in 1947/62. Weather log reports do indicate a growth in Arctic Sea ice during the cold decade of the 1960s, peaking in the spring of 1968. Sea ice retreated in the the early 1970s with the winter polar ice limit the lowest in 1976 ( probably less than this past spring ). The late 70s and into the early 80s saw a return to much colder winters in Northern Europe and growth in the Arctic ice southern limit. I do think increase in Polar Ice in the Euro/ N. Russian sectors does have an effect on cold European winters. It is also interesting to note that temperatures were well above normal through much of Greenland during the coldest winter I can remember in 1962/63.

C

Thanks for answering my post :-) Could I ask a few more questions please? If all of the ice were to go, would/could that increase cloud cover and snowfall across the northern hemisphere? And would/could that halt the greenhouse effect by bouncing solar energy back into space? Also, would any new ocean currants possibly appear that have lain dormant for mil'lennia? I hope i don't sound like a sceptic, I just like to know all the angles before I make up my mind.

[Iceberg]

Losses will continue for awhile yet sea temps of +8C will take a 6 weeks or so to get below normal.

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...tern_visual.png

The effects of the warmer SST's are clearly seen to the NW of the pole.

[Stu_London]

Hello,

Good question.

Satellite info was not available in 1947/62. Weather log reports do indicate a growth in Arctic Sea ice during the cold decade of the 1960s, peaking in the spring of 1968. Sea ice retreated in the the early 1970s with the winter polar ice limit the lowest in 1976 ( probably less than this past spring ). The late 70s and into the early 80s saw a return to much colder winters in Northern Europe and growth in the Arctic ice southern limit. I do think increase in Polar Ice in the Euro/ N. Russian sectors does have an effect on cold European winters. It is also interesting to note that temperatures were well above normal through much of Greenland during the coldest winter I can remember in 1962/63.

C

Is it the chicken or is it the egg though

i.e. Do we get more ice because of cold winters or do we get cold winters because of more ice

Or both and a tipping point is reached where we eventually get ice free summers in the arctic, until nature changes something and the reverse happens and another tipping point is reached where glaciers advance and an ice age occurs.

[frozencanals]

Hi Folks

I've been monitoring the web cams for the mountains in north Norway for signs of the first snow falls, but so far nothing to write home about as they say. Overnight temps have dropped down to around zero or just below, so hopefully if the cold pooling continues 'up north' it won't be long before Scandinavia gets its first fall of the winter.

Cheers

FC

[carinthian]

Hi Folks

I've been monitoring the web cams for the mountains in north Norway for signs of the first snow falls, but so far nothing to write home about as they say. Overnight temps have dropped down to around zero or just below, so hopefully if the cold pooling continues 'up north' it won't be long before Scandinavia gets its first fall of the winter.

Cheers

FC

Hi FC,

Good hunting. Look forward to you posting the first images of the white stuff.

C

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't know hoe 'pee'd' off Corrinth's getting but maybe the state of the northern ice cap (and our projections) are not best placed on his thread. Maybe someone would open one up in 'Science& Nature' so we can chew the cud there?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I meant to add in my last post.... after all of the obvious things like mass flooding, displacement of arctic animal.

Think of Archimedes principle, there will be no sea rise if the sea ice melts. The water is currently displaced by the sea ice, if it melts the displacement reduces equal to the added melt water...so no change. Greenland and Antarctic stability are the ones to watch.

BFTP

[Iceberg]

I don't know hoe 'pee'd' off Corrinth's getting but maybe the state of the northern ice cap (and our projections) are not best placed on his thread. Maybe someone would open one up in 'Science& Nature' so we can chew the cud there?

There's a thread in the Environment about simulation and projections, tipping points etc this could be extended.

I was meaning to add something there but am in meetings all morning.

[carinthian]

Evening,

Snowfall settling at sea level in Svalbard.

C

[carinthian]

Evening,

Snowfall settling at sea level in Svalbard.

C

Not surprised with surface tempertures around 0c and T850 of -10C. Latest sounding indicate cold air advection presently through the lower layers in the Greenland Basin Region.

C

[johnholmes]

Evening,

Snowfall settling at sea level in Svalbard.

C

and they have to put up with darkness for half the year.

I love snow, in its place, but the thought of perpetual darkness, ice, snow and cold, until about April is pretty scary to me.

but them I'm VERY old and clearly remember 1962-3 and fairly well 1947 winters!

Think of Archimedes principle, there will be no sea rise if the sea ice melts. The water is currently displaced by the sea ice, if it melts the displacement reduces equal to the added melt water...so no change. Greenland and Antarctic stability are the ones to watch.

BFTP

quite right.

Edited August 29, 2007 by johnholmes