Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

[Iceberg]

What really makes me laugh BFTP is the constant though that everything is OK, although by now I hope you've given this up in the Arctic. We keep getting told that the Antartic is getting cooler and the ice getting more extensive but which ever why you want to view the ice is now below normal and is looking to be 1m or so below the point that August finished last year.

[carinthian]

Hi TONA,

Carinthinan is possibly the best person to ask, but I guess near the main habited area of Spitsbergen.

Paul

Hello Tona,

Zeppelin Station is a remote observation station at just under 500m asl. It is located in Ny Alesund on the west coast of Svalbard at 79N. Good hunting.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What really makes me laugh BFTP is the constant though that everything is OK, although by now I hope you've given this up in the Arctic. We keep getting told that the Antartic is getting cooler and the ice getting more extensive but which ever why you want to view the ice is now below normal and is looking to be 1m or so below the point that August finished last year.

Looks on the mark by that graph. The trend is still up too and seems normal to me, remember it has suffered the collapse of the ice shelf and in spite of that it seems on the nose. Re arctic yes I've been posing the question why the ice is melting so much....especially when air temps anomaly were warmer [at least as warm] in the 30s up there. Strange that

BFTP

[carinthian]

Morning everyone, some nice shots from Svalbard this morning.

Zeppelin Station

Possible first signs of fresh sea ice

Paul

hi Paul,

The fresh ice you see is ice carving off the Han Glaciers (the edge of the glacier can be seen to the left of the picture) into the Hornsund ffiord. A truly remarkable place.

C

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Hello Tona,

Zeppelin Station is a remote observation station at just under 500m asl. It is located in Ny Alesund on the west coast of Svalbard at 79N. Good hunting.

C

Found it !!! Cheers

Some good fotos attached to it, obviously taken in hi-summer.

[carinthian]

Found it !!! Cheers

Some good fotos attached to it, obviously taken in hi-summer.

Good. What Link is that from ? Would like to take a look.

C

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Good. What Link is that from ? Would like to take a look.

C

It's not really a link, it's on Google earth

http://earth.google.com/

type in 78.57.31 N

11.27.16 E

[Duncan McAlister]

Could we see snow in Northern Scandinavia next week with charts like these?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1803.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2043.png

and would this be particularly unusual?

Edited August 21, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[Polar Continental]

hi Paul,

The fresh ice you see is ice carving off the Han Glaciers (the edge of the glacier can be seen to the left of the picture) into the Hornsund ffiord. A truly remarkable place.

C

Cheers carinth,

It certainly is a remarkable place, some very clear weather up there at the moment.

Hornsund fiord

Paul

[mezzacyclone]

Could we see snow in Northern Scandinavia next week with charts like these?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1803.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2043.png

and would this be particularly unusual?

Looks like it Duncan! chance of snow sunday night in good 'ol Svalbard Wunderground Svalbard forecast

More or less continuous nightly air frosts set for NE siberia in Yakutia regions now as well!

according to S(soviet)SATSIGS :wub:

[carinthian]

Could we see snow in Northern Scandinavia next week with charts like these?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1803.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2043.png

and would this be particularly unusual?

hi Duncan,

The developing cold pool over Svalbard looks likely to expand early next week. A northerly jet streak and formation of a upper trough over Scandinavia should produce some snowfall in the mountains of Northern Scandinavia( web- cams at the ready ) and also some early frosts for parts of Scotland. A Euro/ N. Russian positioning of the polar vortex seems in the making, whilst poleward advection of warmth continues in the Western Canadian Arctic and East Siberia.

C

[Duncan McAlister]

Thanks Mezza and Carinthian, the Highlands has already had a frost, -0.9C at Tulloch Bridge on Tuesday morning!

[trevw]

so much for my guess of 3.2 and 4.9, the numbers are currently tracking at 3.22/4.92! with weeks of potential melt to go..

are we looking at the first sub 4 million Kmsq area year also being the first sub 3 million Kmsq year?

Also interesting to note NSIDCs comments on the 'state' of the ice in various places being a mass of broken ice floes with melt ponds (all of which plus the water between being included in their 4.92 figure)

[parmenides3]

You're not alone, trevw! I said 3.2 area, too, and below 3.0 now seems a distinct possibility. I'm still comfortable with the 4.25 extent guess, though.

There are some great graphics on the multi-year ice trends on the site, too, which people might find informative. Interesting side note; there's a new paper in the Journal of Climate which suggests that the amount of sea ice has an impact on the strength of the THC, but not the one you might expect; less sea ice tends to speed up a weak THC, and more tends to damp it down (subject to other variables). Also new is a paper which observes that the measured amount of freshwater in the North Atlantic has not materially changed in the last 30 years, which really did catch me by surprise!

:)P

[trevw]

There are some great graphics on the multi-year ice trends on the site, too

have you watched the high res animation on the CT site? cannot download anything that big at work myself.. worth a gander?

[Duncan McAlister]

have you watched the high res animation on the CT site? cannot download anything that big at work myself.. worth a gander?

I think it is a great vid Trev, puts it far more in context than the daily animations, it all looks much more 'fluid'. The way the N Alaskan ice just seems to vapourise at the beginning of June is scary!

And thank God for broadband because on dial-up I think there'd be no summer ice left by the time you download it! (took me 20 minutes on a 512K, I think, connection)

Edited August 23, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[frozencanals]

Hi Folks

I love reading this thread, I'm only sorry that I do not know enough to contribute. I had my first look at the Finnish road traffic web cams this morning and looking north from Finland into north Norway I can see a dusting of white stuff on the mountains, but I can't say with any surety if this is fresh or not, but I will keep monitoring the cams over the weekend. Its a pity that this cam has to switch to its real job in winter of showing the road conditions as it give great views northwards in the summer.

Edit; now the sun has moved I can see that it was definitely not fresh snow..... lets hope for some early next week.

Thanks to one and all for a great informative thread, and keep up the good work

Cheers

FC

Edited August 24, 2007 by frozencanals

[Red Raven]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/se....movie.2007.mov

that movie is a scary sight- i hadnt realised how extensive the melt is. I now appreciate what the red areas on cryosphere actually represent.

Its a very slow download but worth it.

Edited August 24, 2007 by Red Raven

[carinthian]

Latest visual, infra red and radar observations continue to show a huge expanse of open water in the East Siberian Sea with concentrations of less than 3/10th as north as 83N in this sector of the Arctic Basin.

However, pack ice remains more advanced than last summer to the north of Svalbard and further west in the northern basin of the Greenland Sea.

C

[carinthian]

Latest visual, infra red and radar observations continue to show a huge expanse of open water in the East Siberian Sea with concentrations of less than 3/10th as north as 83N in this sector of the Arctic Basin.

However, pack ice remains more advanced than last summer to the north of Svalbard and further west in the northern basin of the Greenland Sea.

C

Evening all,

What we really should be looking for in a classic cold pool is for sub -20C air temperature T850 level as was the case shown in Jan Mayen the sounding for the record breaking cold pre-Christmas cold spell in December 1981 across much of the British Isles. However, I do remember further back in early 1969 seeing a maximum of only -17C in Jan Mayen, at sea level !

Would be nice to record that sort of cold again, from a personal point of view.

C

01001_ENJA_Jan_Mayen_Sounding.htm

[Stratos Ferric]

Looking at the cryo plots the rate of fall continues to be rather precipitous. By this time last year it had evened off a lot. Not only are we well below last year's levels, we're continuing to decline sharply.

Looks on the mark by that graph. The trend is still up too and seems normal to me, remember it has suffered the collapse of the ice shelf and in spite of that it seems on the nose. Re arctic yes I've been posing the question why the ice is melting so much....especially when air temps anomaly were warmer [at least as warm] in the 30s up there. Strange that

BFTP

Mabe it's just that the ice was thicker. Melt only becomes critical for extent of ice when what's melting is the last of the ice. IF I want to boil a pan of water I can turn my hob on, and turn it off before the pan boils, and it is still possible for the pan to go on to boil despite the fact that the hob is no longer at its hottest. I suspect the error of attribution you're making is to assume that there needs to be a direct correlation between temperature and extent of ice.

Edited August 24, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looking at the cryo plots the rate of fall continues to be rather precipitous. By this time last year it had evened off a lot. Not only are we well below last year's levels, we're continuing to decline sharply.

Mabe it's just that the ice was thicker. Melt only becomes critical for extent of ice when what's melting is the last of the ice. IF I want to boil a pan of water I can turn my hob on, and turn it off before the pan boils, and it is still possible for the pan to go on to boil despite the fact that the hob is no longer at its hottest. I suspect the error of attribution you're making is to assume that there needs to be a direct correlation between temperature and extent of ice.

SF

Hi, the point I'm suggesting which sort of fits the boiling water analogy is that the melting is from underneath. I believe warming oeans have caused the melt. Only this year I know of two failed Arctic expeditions that failed due to 'unusual severe and prolonged cold'. More to do with +ve AO I think and nowt else may I add. Air temps aren't doing it for me and vast majoriy of ice failure globally is sea ice.

Re your last sentence that is if AGW is directly to blame IMO.

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

SF

Hi, the point I'm suggesting which sort of fits the boiling water analogy is that the melting is from underneath. I believe warming oeans have caused the melt. Only this year I know of two failed Arctic expeditions that failed due to 'unusual severe and prolonged cold'. More to do with +ve AO I think and nowt else may I add. Air temps aren't doing it for me and vast majoriy of ice failure globally is sea ice.

Re your last sentence that is if AGW is directly to blame IMO.

BFTP

I think I'd tend to agree, though warmer oceans also mean warmer air, but if the sea is above 0C then the ice will melt all day long. One indicator to watch should be the date at whcih decline finally stops for the year, though assuming there's a bit less salinity after all this melt then, bizarrely, this could stillbe earlier than last year, and refreeze cold be rapid at first. It probably depends just how much wrmer the marginal waters are.

[SMU]

Goodbye Ice-

Linky- 188 MB file worth the wait though

S

Edited August 25, 2007 by Steve Murr

[Stratos Ferric]

Goodbye Ice-

Linky- 188 MB file worth the wait though

S

Main link doesn't work but the divert goes to what I assume is the right site. Some interesting stuff there Steve, the ice animations are actually less stark than I'd expected; winter ice holds up fairly well on that model - though I'm guessing it's old data now. The temperature models are more striking; the warming at the pole about 20 years out is staggering; interestingly that run has the UK perhaps cooler for the next 5-10 years. However the same model has us cooler for the current ten as well, so perhaps not the best piece of analysis available, for all the impressive graphics.