Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

NW also has the below thread to talk about tipping points and climatic effects. :o

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1040876.

It was in a mail I saw from him, it wasn't yours he was complaining about per se more the 100 other ones... He's actually a very approachable guy who normally responds to mails within a day or so.

My email was short, contained a single question. If what you say is true and he is very approachable, he must have deleted it before reading it because it came from my gmail account rather than an official organisation.

Perhaps Iceberg you can, on our behalf, get a source for what you have claimed to be a "NASA recalibration" which has changed the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice anomaly chart so markedly this year?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/20070810/tsc-...-c2ff8aa_1.html

Had to happen after the wicked fast start in melt this year. All this talk of tipping points being arrived at seem a little belated from my P.O.V.

My advice would be to keep a close watch on Antarctica over our winter if you have any doubts as to the true gravity of our position.

[Stratos Ferric]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/20070810/tsc-...-c2ff8aa_1.html

Had to happen after the wicked fast start in melt this year. All this talk of tipping points being arrived at seem a little belated from my P.O.V.

My advice would be to keep a close watch on Antarctica over our winter if you have any doubts as to the true gravity of our position.

The situation in Antarctica is always likely to be more stable, or at least markedly less volatile. The continental masses in the NH conspire to force both the jet and ocean currents polewards, far more so than is the case in the SH. It's not that Antarctica cannot be warm (recently it has been exceptionally "warm" - or rather, the positive anomalies in the height of the SH winter have been as high as I have seen them for some years), just that it is less inclined to short-wave fluctuation. In addition, the vast majority of Antactica's ice is land locked; the available surface for melt is less than in the Arctic (where most of the ice is floating on water), and the feedback loop once melted is less pronounced; water is a less dark surface than land. The Arctic would go ice free in summer long before the same happened in Antarctica.

[parmenides3]

I thought the Antarctic was close to ice-free in the Summer anyway?

:)P

[Gray-Wolf]

The situation in Antarctica is always likely to be more stable, or at least markedly less volatile. The continental masses in the NH conspire to force both the jet and ocean currents polewards, far more so than is the case in the SH. It's not that Antarctica cannot be warm (recently it has been exceptionally "warm" - or rather, the positive anomalies in the height of the SH winter have been as high as I have seen them for some years), just that it is less inclined to short-wave fluctuation. In addition, the vast majority of Antarctica's ice is land locked; the available surface for melt is less than in the Arctic (where most of the ice is floating on water), and the feedback loop once melted is less pronounced; water is a less dark surface than land. The Arctic would go ice free in summer long before the same happened in Antarctica.

As we all saw from the 2005 NASA images of ablation from the mountains to the rear of Ross (Lubricating the shelf in front?) things are no where near as 'stable' as you would have us believe.

From my natters with the U.S./U.K. scientists down there I get the distinct impression that they are not too happy with the way data is presenting down there (ice lake raising 2km of ice though hydraulic pressure alone, unknown ice streams,rate of glacier ablation,change in circumpolar winds etc,etc.) The only answer we will seem to receive is 'as long as things continue as the models show.......' and never 'as we see things now' (as the models are superceded by reality).

As always we are left knowing that time alone will tell.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's not that Antarctica cannot be warm (recently it has been exceptionally "warm" - or rather, the positive anomalies in the height of the SH winter have been as high as I have seen them for some years), just that it is less inclined to short-wave fluctuation.

Although the NOAA maps of global temperatures and anomalies are accurate for most regions (including the Arctic, at least if my experiences are anything to go by), I'm not convinced about their coverage of Antarctica. In the past two years, Antarctica has been shown as having positive anomalies of 10C throughout Southern Hemisphere winter, and negative anomalies of 10C throughout Southern Hemisphere summer!

[Stratos Ferric]

As we all saw from the 2005 NASA images of ablation from the mountains to the rear of Ross (Lubricating the shelf in front?) things are no where near as 'stable' as you would have us believe.

From my natters with the U.S./U.K. scientists down there I get the distinct impression that they are not too happy with the way data is presenting down there (ice lake raising 2km of ice though hydraulic pressure alone, unknown ice streams,rate of glacier ablation,change in circumpolar winds etc,etc.) The only answer we will seem to receive is 'as long as things continue as the models show.......' and never 'as we see things now' (as the models are superceded by reality).

As always we are left knowing that time alone will tell.

I didn't say they were stable, but that they were "more stable" than in the north. We are much further away from losing polar ice in the south than we are in the north, not that it is immediately imminent in either location, but it is becoming a medium term probability in the north. In Antarctica it could still well be a "not in my lifetime" situation given the depth of the ice shelf - and I'm not planning on dying any time soon.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Carinthian, I thought you might be interested in this thread on the Environmental Change board. NASA has corrected its temperature record following the discovery of a "Y2K bug."

Perhaps this explains the new Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice anomaly graph? Anyway, 1934 is now officially the warmest recorded year in the USA dataset (which enviros have used as a global proxy), followed by 1998 in second place.

Ed. Here's the new data. It's based on readings taken in the US.

Edited August 11, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[carinthian]

Carinthian, I thought you might be interested in this thread on the Environmental Change board. NASA has corrected its temperature record following the discovery of a "Y2K bug."

Perhaps this explains the new Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice anomaly graph? Anyway, 1934 is now officially the warmest recorded year in the USA dataset (which enviros have used as a global proxy), followed by 1998 in second place.

Ed. Here's the new data. It's based on readings taken in the US.

Thanks AF,

Yes, very interesting. Political & Scientific in- fighting ? Would be interesting to know the location distribution and heights of the 48 sites. Temperatures vary widely according to latitude and distance from the sea. It is also worthwhile noting that there was also a sequence of hot summers in England during the period 1932-34. As regards, Arctic Sea new anomly graph, I am a bit sceptical, however Weather log reports have indicated at shrinking of shrinking of the Northern Ice cap for a period between of the wars during the last century.

C

[Gray-Wolf]

As an add on there is now a report of the impact of American industrialisation (1850-1950) on Greenland via the amount of soot deposited on the ice cap/glaciers. I wonder how the reports of 'green snow' in China last year reflects the amount of cr*p now settling onto the northern regions from their coal fired power stations???

[summer blizzard]

Does anybody hav access to global ensembles, specifically coastal locations in Canada, Alaska and Siberia.

[carinthian]

Evening,

Could see the first snowfall in Svalbard on Friday morning. Developing cold pool in the Euro high Arctic .

C

[Guest Viking141]

Evening,

Could see the first snowfall in Svalbard on Friday morning. Developing cold pool in the Euro high Arctic .

C

Hi Carinth

Sounds good but how does that compare with previous years, is it early, late or just normal?

[carinthian]

Hi Carinth

Sounds good but how does that compare with previous years, is it early, late or just normal?

Hi Viking 141,

Polar winds are now already now becoming established and combined with the jet streak further south into Europe, I would say the colder influence is likely to be earlier than previous years in Svalbard.

C

[Stratos Ferric]

Hi Viking 141,

Polar winds are now already now becoming established and combined with the jet streak further south into Europe, I would say the colder influence is likely to be earlier than previous years in Svalbard.

C

Carinthian, looking at the 365 day plot for polar cover, I'm struck by the assymetry: the peak ice is reached in March, yet last year the nadir didn't arrive until October: that gives five net freezing months and seven net melting. Do you happen to know whether this has always been the case (I can see no rational argument why this might be so) or is this just a reflection of a "requirement" for decline - i.e. more melt than refreeze.

[Iceberg]

Last year was certainly not the norm Cooling should begin around the 5th of Sept and can be as early as July many moon's ago.

I quick piccy, The NW passage has certainly opened, even the deep one is open, to be honest they can go pretty much where ever the hell they want because there is very little ice up there.

Under normal conditions, an average year, nearly all of these Islands are locked in with Ice.!.

[Mr Sleet]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/20070810/tsc-...-c2ff8aa_1.html

Had to happen after the wicked fast start in melt this year. All this talk of tipping points being arrived at seem a little belated from my P.O.V.

My advice would be to keep a close watch on Antarctica over our winter if you have any doubts as to the true gravity of our position.

.......although this report http://www.russia-ic.com/news/show/4512/ shows that total ice volume is the same. I've learnt not to take media reports at face value, epsecially when scenitists use emotive words such as "annihilate" to describe ice loss.

Edited August 14, 2007 by Mr Sleet

[Mr Sleet]

quote name='PersianPaladin' date='9 Aug 2007, 11:42 PM' post='1040603']

Depressing indeed; and thus, as you say, the likely culprit of our cold anamolies in the northern and central Atlantic...steepening SST gradients towards our latitudes and helping to stir a more vigorous jet-stream. I suspect that this could result in a temporary cool-zone for north-west Europe as well as highly unsettled weather as maritime areas take the brunt of these steepening oceanic anamolies; with eastern continental areas developing feedback high pressure cells and much higher temps to compensate.

It'll be interesting though on how this all affects our winter in terms of how these cooler anamolies influence the subtropical high pressure-zone and how far south it migrates. I suspect our winter may end up being quite a mess...synoptic wise.

Edited August 14, 2007 by Mr Sleet

[DR Hosking]

The bbc has latched onto the lack of Ice story.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6944401.stm

[carinthian]

Carinthian, looking at the 365 day plot for polar cover, I'm struck by the assymetry: the peak ice is reached in March, yet last year the nadir didn't arrive until October: that gives five net freezing months and seven net melting. Do you happen to know whether this has always been the case (I can see no rational argument why this might be so) or is this just a reflection of a "requirement" for decline - i.e. more melt than refreeze.

Hi SF,

In the spring of 1976, the southern limit of the pack ice in the Greenland Sea was 200 miles further north than its usual limit. Fears even voiced then of Arctic ice disappearing and occurring during peak season. I have in the early 1980s seen the Arctic sea ice remained locked all summer to the Arctic Rim regions of Northern Siberia. The first months of last summer , a very warm advection of heat was pumped into the Russian Arctic from Southern Europe. This summer has seen heat advection on a prolonged scale into the Siberian Sea from the NW Pacific. It looks like a record low for summertime ice retention in the East Siberian and Laptev Sea. Presently the open waters in this region is superabundant even compared to this time last year.

A real concern, but peaks have no real consistancy.

C

[jethro]

Don't know if this link has been posted before but just in case it hasn't here's a link:

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html

[parmenides3]

NSIDC has updated it's press room: http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaicemin...0810_index.html

As of 2 days ago, sea ice extent was 5.4 million Km2; the all-time low extent was September 2005, at 5.36 Mkm2. By tomorrow or Friday, there should be some kind of offical announcement (the minimum update time for the sat. info is 3 days), that we've gone past the all-time low.

There's an interesting discussion on the page as to why this is happening, synoptically.

Thought you'd all like to know.

:)P

[Mr Sleet]

NSIDC has updated it's press room: http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaicemin...0810_index.html

As of 2 days ago, sea ice extent was 5.4 million Km2; the all-time low extent was September 2005, at 5.36 Mkm2. By tomorrow or Friday, there should be some kind of offical announcement (the minimum update time for the sat. info is 3 days), that we've gone past the all-time low.

There's an interesting discussion on the page as to why this is happening, synoptically.

Thought you'd all like to know.

:)P

Thanks P3. Comforting to know that the rapid sea ice loss in June/July is due to excpetionally sunny conditions, (they pinched our sunshine, literally) rather than unusual warmth. Temperature anomalies were higher in 2004 than current.

[carinthian]

Thanks P3. Comforting to know that the rapid sea ice loss in June/July is due to excpetionally sunny conditions, (they pinched our sunshine, literally) rather than unusual warmth. Temperature anomalies were higher in 2004 than current.

Not sure that is the case. The poleward transfer of heat from the NW Pacific seems more likely in my view . Temperatures in the East Siberian Arctic Region are currently +10C above normal. Most of the sunlight in the Arctic Basin is reflected from the white surface and has little power to cause melting. Most of the heat available is used up in this process, for the specific heat and latent heat of snow and ice are high, and little is available to cause excessive melting. Advection of heat seems to more probable cause of sea ice loss.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

things finally improving in the Arctic regions, the melting curve is starting to slow down, (maybe as there is no more ice to melt) some -10 850pha temps starting to appear as it looks like the polar vortex is establishing itself. We should see things improve futher as darkness starts to creap back.

With good concentrations of ice over on our side of the woods it will be interesting to see what impact that will have?