Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

[londonsnow]

Hi London snow,

Almost with-out fail the first week in August sees a return of -ve C temperatures at or close to the pole itself. In 12 weeks time temperatures will be around -25 C .

C

many thanks for that carinthian. i guess that is some comfort!

[Filski]

Any chance you can make a similar prediction for the northern hemisphere's ski season - especially the Dolomites

Not a hope unfortunately. I'm a bit of a southern hemisphere specialist (mainly because it's dead easy). The weather up here is too complicated!

[Duncan McAlister]

One sign of encouragement for the very low concentrations of ice to the north of Alaska, looking very red and 'wounded' here

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

is the cold air progged for that area at the start of next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn963.gif

and -5 hPa towards the end of next week. Hopefully this will slow down the melt. Polyna this year?

[carinthian]

One sign of encouragement for the very low concentrations of ice to the north of Alaska, looking very red and 'wounded' here

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

is the cold air progged for that area at the start of next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn963.gif

and -5 hPa towards the end of next week. Hopefully this will slow down the melt. Polyna this year?

hI Duncan,

Welcome back. The upper trough over the North American Arctic is now becoming established, so we can start to see some colder temperatures in this sector which might help slow down the terrible loss in ice. Too much open water in this sector for Polyna to form at the moment combined with opposite thermal dynamics compared to last years formation in the Beaufort Sea.

C

[Iceberg]

Still a scary loss of ice melt down to 4.4 now without much halt in the current decline.

The problem is we are still not sure what's causing the melt.

If Polykov is right then it's down to undersea currents and surface temps won't make a huge difference.

Equally the amount of solar radiation reaching the North Pole is also still very high.

Cooler temps have helped to put a halt to some of he Alaskan melting in the last 10 days, but the deeper NW passage still looks like it might open.

A low of 3.8m or less seems possible still.

[carinthian]

Still a scary loss of ice melt down to 4.4 now without much halt in the current decline.

The problem is we are still not sure what's causing the melt.

If Polykov is right then it's down to undersea currents and surface temps won't make a huge difference.

Equally the amount of solar radiation reaching the North Pole is also still very high.

Cooler temps have helped to put a halt to some of he Alaskan melting in the last 10 days, but the deeper NW passage still looks like it might open.

A low of 3.8m or less seems possible still.

Hi Iceberg,

I think the melt in the North American and East Siberian Sectors was caused by the poleward strong advection of heat from the NW Pacific. High solar radiation readings are not profouindly reflected in the current surface temperatures, for temperature represents the balance of heat received over heat radiated away. Lets hope your prediced low of 3.8 m sq km does not materialise. Last years poleward transfer of heat from the NE Pacific caused a late freezing over in the North American Arctic. The developing upper trough may now reverse last summer late action.

C

[Iceberg]

Morning All,

Sea temps are quite high in parts of the artic circle(considering that these are the areas that should have a ice atm) current upto +5C positive anom, thankfully nothing like that on our side.

NW passage melting is still continuing (comparing the latest with 2 weeks ago, 1 area of pack ice to melt to open the normal route and 2 areas to melt to open up the deep water route(which I don't believe has ever been recored as being open!)

Interesting times, the predicted return to normal temps is well recieved, NWS predictions for remelting over the autumn are running comparable with 1997 atm.

Did the Ice ever leave Arctichesky last year ?, seems to be hanging on a bit there.

Edited August 5, 2007 by Iceberg

[carinthian]

Putin stakes claim to North Pole. God Help the future of mankind. Super tankers breaking through the ice to remove over a potential of 500 billion barrels of oil,natural gas and every natural mineral deposits one can think off. This wonderful natural graet wilderness should be left alone.

NO to the exploitation of OUR pristine Arctic territory.

NO country should own this great wilderness.

POWER should not decide who owns the Arctic.

For ( Christs sake ) leave it alone and to hell with Russias/ Canadian/ American claims. Leave to the likes environmental friendly nations of Norway and Denmark to monitor.

Everyone should kick up a stink. Moan and complain like furry . Super Powers do not give a toss about the Arctic and futher GW.

Support and complain.

C

[Optimus Prime]

I have to agree with you Carinthian but unfortunately I don't think it'll make any difference if we did. Them lot are going to destroy yet more of an area of the earth that is largely unspoilt by their greedy fingers.

All we seem to be able to do is take things away, rape nature and poison our ecosystem. No wonder the climates warming up at an unsustainable rate. And no wonder we're heading for a very dim future. In any case, we don't really deserve to have a future?

[oldsnowywizard]

Putin stakes claim to North Pole. God Help the future of mankind. Super tankers breaking through the ice to remove over a potential of 500 billion barrels of oil,natural gas and every natural mineral deposits one can think off. This wonderful natural graet wilderness should be left alone.

NO to the exploitation of OUR pristine Arctic territory.

NO country should own this great wilderness.

POWER should not decide who owns the Arctic.

For ( Christs sake ) leave it alone and to hell with Russias/ Canadian/ American claims. Leave to the likes environmental friendly nations of Norway and Denmark to monitor.

Everyone should kick up a stink. Moan and complain like furry . Super Powers do not give a toss about the Arctic and futher GW.

Support and complain.

C

very concerning, who gives any one country the right to dictate to the world? we all should be working together, instead of fighting there should be a football game or something... If i could rule the world i would stop all this rubbish about money, power and politics we are one race g damn it and its getting ridiculous all this bully boy tactics... my willy is bigger than yours nonsence!!!! sorry rant over...

Ted Nield, of the Geological Society in London, branded Russia's claim nonsensical.

"The notion that geological structures can somehow dictate ownership is deeply peculiar," he said.

"Anyway, the Lomonosov Ridge is not part of a continental shelf - it is the point at which two ocean floor plates under the Arctic Ocean are spreading apart.

"It extends from Russia across to Canada, which means Canada could use the same argument and say the ridge is part of the Canadian shelf.

"If you take that to its logical conclusion, Canada could claim Russia and the whole of Eurasia as its own."

I say if Russia win this claim we should back Canada taking over Russia!!

[Iceberg]

we need to be seeing the below leveling off now.

I think the total area is around 4.15m, with the anomaly around 0.1m off a the record low again.

Russia are playing still buggers atm, it's like those people that claimed the moon, barmy.

What is worrying is the fighting that will surely exist in the future, visions of hugh floating oil rigs 10 meters or so above the ice with undersea pipelines are very realistic.

Got a chart at home, which indicates that the ice that was at the north pole has migrated to just off the coast of Greenland, hence why thicknesses in this area are holding up so well.

[Polar Continental]

Putin stakes claim to North Pole. God Help the future of mankind. Super tankers breaking through the ice to remove over a potential of 500 billion barrels of oil,natural gas and every natural mineral deposits one can think off. This wonderful natural graet wilderness should be left alone.

NO to the exploitation of OUR pristine Arctic territory.

NO country should own this great wilderness.

POWER should not decide who owns the Arctic.

For ( Christs sake ) leave it alone and to hell with Russias/ Canadian/ American claims. Leave to the likes environmental friendly nations of Norway and Denmark to monitor.

Everyone should kick up a stink. Moan and complain like furry . Super Powers do not give a toss about the Arctic and futher GW.

Support and complain.

C

I have to agree with you Carinthian but unfortunately I don't think it'll make any difference if we did. Them lot are going to destroy yet more of an area of the earth that is largely unspoilt by their greedy fingers.

All we seem to be able to do is take things away, rape nature and poison our ecosystem. No wonder the climates warming up at an unsustainable rate. And no wonder we're heading for a very dim future. In any case, we don't really deserve to have a future?

Hi carinth, all

It also makes my blood boil when I read this.

Yes man with power can be an appalling creature, selfish, evil, greedy and totally and utterly destructive, showing a complete disregard for the environment and the wild life, man doesn’t deserve a place on this planet.

Antarctica will more than likely be the next place for man to get his filthy paws on and ruin.

What makes it so bad is we have the foresight to realise the long-term damage we are doing, and yet still continue on the same suicidal linear path. 8P

Nature normally puts things in check, regarding other life on the planet, when things get out of hand, over population etc. Will man be put in check one day?

Paul

[karyo]

Putin stakes claim to North Pole. God Help the future of mankind. Super tankers breaking through the ice to remove over a potential of 500 billion barrels of oil,natural gas and every natural mineral deposits one can think off. This wonderful natural graet wilderness should be left alone.

NO to the exploitation of OUR pristine Arctic territory.

NO country should own this great wilderness.

POWER should not decide who owns the Arctic.

For ( Christs sake ) leave it alone and to hell with Russias/ Canadian/ American claims. Leave to the likes environmental friendly nations of Norway and Denmark to monitor.

Everyone should kick up a stink. Moan and complain like furry . Super Powers do not give a toss about the Arctic and futher GW.

Support and complain.

C

Your keen interest in protecting the Artic (and generally the few remaining unspoilt parts of the earth) is refreshing and inspiring! We are all weather enthusiasts and the weather is linked with the environment so we should aim to protect it. Unfortunately, most people are more likely to go shopping than take action.

I think that the view that 'it won't make any difference' is wrong and defeating.

One way of taking action is to become member of environmental organisations such as WWF or Greenpeace as they can voice our concerns.

Karyo

[The PIT]

Your keen interest in protecting the Artic (and generally the few remaining unspoilt parts of the earth) is refreshing and inspiring! We are all weather enthusiasts and the weather is linked with the environment so we should aim to protect it. Unfortunately, most people are more likely to go shopping than take action.

I think that the view that 'it won't make any difference' is wrong and defeating.

One way of taking action is to become member of environmental organisations such as WWF or Greenpeace as they can voice our concerns.

Karyo

I just rang Putin and told him where to get off. I then told him I'm not going to buy any more Vodka.

[PersianPaladin]

Putin stakes claim to North Pole. God Help the future of mankind. Super tankers breaking through the ice to remove over a potential of 500 billion barrels of oil,natural gas and every natural mineral deposits one can think off. This wonderful natural graet wilderness should be left alone.

NO to the exploitation of OUR pristine Arctic territory.

NO country should own this great wilderness.

POWER should not decide who owns the Arctic.

For ( Christs sake ) leave it alone and to hell with Russias/ Canadian/ American claims. Leave to the likes environmental friendly nations of Norway and Denmark to monitor.

Everyone should kick up a stink. Moan and complain like furry . Super Powers do not give a toss about the Arctic and futher GW.

Support and complain.

C

Well said.

Damn the man.

[Optimus Prime]

Nature normally puts things in check, regarding other life on the planet, when things get out of hand, over population etc. Will man be put in check one day?

Paul

Well the fact many species are becoming extinct, we're taking the place of other animals by the continuing growth of our population. While we continue to increase in numbers, other species of animals will be sacrificed to maintain a more healthy ecosystem. That's my opoinion anyway.

I think nature has already tried to create some sort of correction with our species. Aids has been the most notable effect but bird flue hasn't really frown into anything. I guess bird flue was an at temp to kill a few of us off but our medicine has evolved enough to combat this.

Back on topic. The arctic is still at record low levels, as is the northern hemisphere but our side of the ocean isn't doing to bad.

But the south pole is still doing very well. About 1 million square kilometers above normal.

[Iceberg]

Here's the moving of the ice, This would encourage the thicker older ice towards us, helping to keep our side up a little.

[ribster]

very concerning, who gives any one country the right to dictate to the world? we all should be working together, instead of fighting there should be a football game or something... If i could rule the world i would stop all this rubbish about money, power and politics we are one race g damn it and its getting ridiculous all this bully boy tactics... my willy is bigger than yours nonsence!!!! sorry rant over...

Ted Nield, of the Geological Society in London, branded Russia's claim nonsensical.

"The notion that geological structures can somehow dictate ownership is deeply peculiar," he said.

"Anyway, the Lomonosov Ridge is not part of a continental shelf - it is the point at which two ocean floor plates under the Arctic Ocean are spreading apart.

"It extends from Russia across to Canada, which means Canada could use the same argument and say the ridge is part of the Canadian shelf.

Just had a quick google search, there seems to be a plethora of articles about Amercia, Canada, Russia, Denmark and Norway fighting over land/ice in this region - all after oil/gas and valuable shipping lanes it seems.

"If you take that to its logical conclusion, Canada could claim Russia and the whole of Eurasia as its own."

I say if Russia win this claim we should back Canada taking over Russia!!

Far be it for me to defend Russias actions, in fact what they have done is bang out of order. However, canada is just as bad as it has been doing much the same in grabbing land here and there, in fact very recently. I can't remember the exact location, but they only recently claimed some lump of rock off of the coast of Denmark, by some very tenuous link to say the least. They are all as bad as each other.

They really do need to leave the arctic well alone!

In fact doing a quick search online, America, Canada, Russia, Denmark and Norway are all fighting over the arctic region, claiming pieces of it here and there, all in the name of oil, gas and shipping lanes!!

Edited August 7, 2007 by ribster

[trevw]

so.. what's the current record minimum? was that 2002? looks like we are close to beating last years minimum with 6+ weeks of potential (if usually slow) melt left?

Trev

[parmenides3]

so.. what's the current record minimum? was that 2002? looks like we are close to beating last years minimum with 6+ weeks of potential (if usually slow) melt left?

Trev

Trev; different agencies measure the minimum in different ways. CT uses sea ice area in its main graphic; that is, the extent of the sea ice minus the pools within that extent, as calculated from satellite measurements and analysis. This is the most accurate way of measuring the ice. It goes back to 1979. The NCDC often refer to sea ice extent; the area of sea ice as defined by its outer edge. This is mainly because records go back a lot longer for extent estimates than they do for area estimates.

By one measure, 2002-3 was the lowest, by another, 2005 was the lowest. Back in April, I suggested that this year would break the record; it should probably be a record both in area and extent, as well as (by definition) in anomaly. The Canadian Ice Service forecast for August is for average to above average temperatures for the first half of August, with above average for the second half, across the entire American/Canadian side of the Ocean. Add to this the average day of annual minimum is around September 6th, which, this year, could be delayed by up to two or three weeks by their reckoning, and we have reasonable grounds to expect the summer minimum to fall well below any previous record.

:)P

[carinthian]

Your keen interest in protecting the Artic (and generally the few remaining unspoilt parts of the earth) is refreshing and inspiring! We are all weather enthusiasts and the weather is linked with the environment so we should aim to protect it. Unfortunately, most people are more likely to go shopping than take action.

I think that the view that 'it won't make any difference' is wrong and defeating.

One way of taking action is to become member of environmental organisations such as WWF or Greenpeace as they can voice our concerns.

Karyo

Hi Karyo,

Yes, both WWF &GREENPEACE are doing great work. I support them to the hilt. I do not hear much objection to Putins claim from our very own gutless bunch of overpaid and protected Members of Parliament

Nearer to home the CPRE are fighting every corner on a shoe string budget to stop this crazy government building more homes in the wrong places and hideous out of town shopping complexes. Support the village shops,high street grocers, the local pub and to hell with the multi-nationals. Anyway this is going off thread a bit, but glad to get it off my chest. You can all voice your concerns about the Arctic by writing to your local MP or joining an environmental organisation or even e-mail the Russian Embassy to voice your concerns.

C

[parmenides3]

Hi Carinth! Unfortunately, the current attitude of most governments at the moment with regard to the Arctic and the potential changes there is to view this as a business opportunity, rather than a cause for concern. As a previously non-viable area of resources becomes increasingly viable, so exploitation is pretty much inevitable, unless concerted international pressure places some kind of constraints on the USA and Russia in particular. Is this likely?

I fully support your call for people to write to their representatives on this subject; the more you write, the more they are compelled to provide a response. You may want to ask your MP, for example, whether he/she or her/his party endorses the commercial exploitation of the polar regions, and if not, what action they plan to take to ensure that the cryosphere is protected from commercial as well as climatic destruction. Let us know what they say. PS: emails to websites often produce quickish responses. The Prime Minister has such a site; go to Downing Street and leave your question/voice your concern.

Meantime, have you seen the Unisys SSTAs for the Northern Polar regions? It's a horrifying sight...

:)P

[carinthian]

Hi Carinth! Unfortunately, the current attitude of most governments at the moment with regard to the Arctic and the potential changes there is to view this as a business opportunity, rather than a cause for concern. As a previously non-viable area of resources becomes increasingly viable, so exploitation is pretty much inevitable, unless concerted international pressure places some kind of constraints on the USA and Russia in particular. Is this likely?

I fully support your call for people to write to their representatives on this subject; the more you write, the more they are compelled to provide a response. You may want to ask your MP, for example, whether he/she or her/his party endorses the commercial exploitation of the polar regions, and if not, what action they plan to take to ensure that the cryosphere is protected from commercial as well as climatic destruction. Let us know what they say. PS: emails to websites often produce quickish responses. The Prime Minister has such a site; go to Downing Street and leave your question/voice your concern.

Meantime, have you seen the Unisys SSTAs for the Northern Polar regions? It's a horrifying sight...

:)P

hI pM3,

Yes, a worrying development. In all my 38 years of studying ice data, I have never seen a worst picture than as present.

C

[rc28]

I came across this link and ,to me, (if i'm reading it right!) this year has already equalled the record minimumt?;

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...urrent.area.jpg

It comes from the NSIDC, are they the most accurate source? I ask because someone above said 2002 was the record minimum but the chart makes it look like 2006 was.

Edited August 8, 2007 by rc28

[parmenides3]

rc28: try this page instead: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/minima.index.html

The discussion is from last year, but the principles are the same. It looks like we are close to equalling last Summer's minimum level now, but that was slightly higher than 2004-5, which is CT's record minimum sea ice area date. The NCDC has 2002-3 as the year of loowest recorded summer sea ice extent.

:)P