Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Fun with animation.

Someone could do a better job in a proper animator but you get the idea.

Ed: I think pre-2000 is the same? It's hard to tell because the numbers are more "squashed up" because they've added another year to the graph - 2008.

Serious questions should be asked about this graph.

Edited July 25, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I've emailed the contact at Cryosphere and will give you the answer tomorrow (hopefully!).

[Stratos Ferric]

I've emailed the contact at Cryosphere and will give you the answer tomorrow (hopefully!).

Good work and good spot, certainly worth asking the question. An interesting and easy reconciliation might be against the anomaly given on the current 12 month plot.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not sure the "records galore" stands up to scrutiny. There have been a few instances of localised "seasonal" weather, but certainly no widespread sustained cold.

It will certainly come under widespread and sustained cold. Places receiving snow for fist time in 30 and 90 years isn't seasonal. South America has had widespread sustained record breaking cold, Australia has broken widely record low temps and South Africa has had rare snow events too. Records galore? maybe slightly adventurous but not that much so

BFTP

[Duncan McAlister]

I've emailed the contact at Cryosphere and will give you the answer tomorrow (hopefully!).

Thanks for that, although I must admit I never considered it any kind of conspiracy, perhaps just reconsideration of what concentrations were counted as ice. Having said this, that really is a stark change in the graph!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Thanks for that, although I must admit I never considered it any kind of conspiracy, perhaps just reconsideration of what concentrations were counted as ice. Having said this, that really is a stark change in the graph!

What is confusing is why the pre-2000 period is virtually the same while the post-2000 period has changed completely.

It's not just the anomaly has changed. The pattern has too. Before End of 2001- 2002 there is a peak, After that peak has gone.

(No reply yet from Cryosphere.)

Good work and good spot, certainly worth asking the question. An interesting and easy reconciliation might be against the anomaly given on the current 12 month plot.

No it's not - look, both are, as listed, against the 1978-2000 period.

[carinthian]

Evening all,

Less than 60 days to go before twilight zone at the North Pole. Historically, next week sees the first reports of all day -ve C near to the pole itself and with 10 minutes less daylight a day now at the Arctic Circle, count time is now on. I start to get excited again. Full latest ice report on Ist August.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Evening all,

Less than 60 days to go before twilight zone at the North Pole. Historically, next week sees the first reports of all day -ve C near to the pole itself and with 10 minutes less daylight a day now at the Arctic Circle, count time is now on. I start to get excited again. Full latest ice report on Ist August.

C

So do we Carinth, so do we

BFTP

[jethro]

Actually there has been record cold recorded in Australia in recent weeks. The SAM has switched mode this year leading to a decent winter with regular ECL's (eastern cutoff lows) and frequent northerly incursions. Not sure if this has implications for the NH winter.

Forgive my ignorance, but what's SAM?

[carinthian]

LATEST REPORT 30/07/07

At long last changes a foot in the Western Arctic . The poleward advection of Tropical Maritime airmass is soon to be squeezed out as the North Pacific High in tandum with its North Atlantic high belt starts to push Northwards.A major upper trough seems likely to develop over the Barren Grounds( the region to the East of the Lower Mackenzie and the archipelago of the great Islands. This will have the affect of inducing a (cooler Pm) flow throughout much of the Western Canadian Arctic Sector including Alaska and hopefully stop any further melting of polar ice in the Western Basin.

Northern Hemisphere final summer totals seem to be on a parr with last year with a final total area likely to be close to 4 million sq km. As I have previously mentioned, the greatest summer loss has been in Beaufort Sea,East Siberian Sea and the Western Arctic Basin. Good news is the retention of a solid polar ice edge around 81N from the Greenland Sea, across the North Barent and Euro /Russian sector.

C

[carinthian]

Hi carinthian - hope you are well B)

A re-distribution of losses this year - at least the Barent sector which potentially has a knock on effect for our part of the world is improved on last year. A reappearance of the northern blocked summer pattern futher down the line will have benefits for the arrival of the northern winter - lets hope there is a rebound in the said synoptics once again

Tamara

Hello Tamara,

Yes, I am enjoying the cool of the UK after the excessive heat in Southern Austria. There is no doubt that there has been a terrible loss of summer ice in the Western Arctic but Greenland and the Mid -Arctic/North European Region is holding on to a good concentration and depth of polar ice. Thats where our hope lies to herald a true polar winter into our shores with a substained pressure block as you mention.

Best Regards,

C

[trevw]

I've emailed the contact at Cryosphere and will give you the answer tomorrow (hopefully!).

AF, did you ever get an answer?

Carinthian, how soon do you expect the change in synoptics to start having an effect? I realise Cryosphere Today is not the be all and end all on Arctic monitoring but the current rate of ice loss looks at odds with talk of final summer ice loss at this point.. especially when melting continued on and off almost into october last year..?

Also, the Barent Sea ice area appears to be down on last year not up? with the kara sea area hot only a touch behind last year - or is there a different data source that shows the opposite?

Trev

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

AF, did you ever get an answer?

Trev

No.

I understand from elsewhere though that NOAA also recently adjusted the temperature history for the 20th century. 1930s became cooler, 1990s warmer.

[carinthian]

AF, did you ever get an answer?

Carinthian, how soon do you expect the change in synoptics to start having an effect? I realise Cryosphere Today is not the be all and end all on Arctic monitoring but the current rate of ice loss looks at odds with talk of final summer ice loss at this point.. especially when melting continued on and off almost into october last year..?

Also, the Barent Sea ice area appears to be down on last year not up? with the kara sea area hot only a touch behind last year - or is there a different data source that shows the opposite?

Trev

Hi Trev,

You are correct to realise Cryosphere Today is not the B all and end all of Arctic ice monitoring. I have mentioned many times on this thread that correct Ice Analysis and particularly the boundary of the ice sheets relies of the combined reports made by Visual, Infra Red and Radar Observations. I can confirm today that these reports show a distinct lineament of the Polar Ice Edge to be at least 100 miles further south in the North Barent/ Greenland Sea than this time last summer. Cooling in the Arctic Basin can start as early as next week but as last summers season proved loss of ice continued well into the early Autumn period.

C

[jethro]

No.

I understand from elsewhere though that NOAA also recently adjusted the temperature history for the 20th century. 1930s became cooler, 1990s warmer.

And we're still supposed to be accepting, non-cynical, non-sceptical? I'm afraid the more I read, the more I hear of "adjustments" being made with no explanation or publicity, the more I think the story's being cooked.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

And we're still supposed to be accepting, non-cynical, non-sceptical? I'm afraid the more I read, the more I hear of "adjustments" being made with no explanation or publicity, the more I think the story's being cooked.

It is a revelation to me that the same facts can be presented in more than one way. More a revelation that just one set of facts can change while the rest can stay the same and still the entire data set be factual. Okay, I'm confused now.

If I don't get a reply from William Chapman soon I'll just send this animation and ask him to explain what is going on.

[Filski]

Forgive my ignorance, but what's SAM?

Sub annular mode. Pretty sure it's the same as the Antarctic Ossiclation (AAO). The modes gives a clue as to the strength of the polar vortex and positioning of systems in the southern ocean. It's been mainly positive for quite some time, this year it gave signals early on of switching. I made a call for a great ski season back at the beginning of April and successfully predicted a high occurence of ECL's. All thanks to you guys and the idea of teleconnections which is not much discussed down there.

[carinthian]

Sub annular mode. Pretty sure it's the same as the Antarctic Ossiclation (AAO). The modes gives a clue as to the strength of the polar vortex and positioning of systems in the southern ocean. It's been mainly positive for quite some time, this year it gave signals early on of switching. I made a call for a great ski season back at the beginning of April and successfully predicted a high occurence of ECL's. All thanks to you guys and the idea of teleconnections which is not much discussed down there.

Sounds convincing Filski, but never heard of the phrase SAM. The steep rise of Antartica from the coast carries the surface above 6,000 feet not far inland, so most of the interior may project above the anticyclone into a polar cyclone above. Above the anticyclone the poleward pressure gradient from the sub- tropics, and the circumpolar whirl of west winds , seem to continue to the pole. Because of these conditions the strength of the Polar vortex is hard to measure and the oscillation mode not as easy to detect compared the almost landlocked Arctic Ocean.

Good call on the ski -season though.

C

[Red Raven]

Sub annular mode. Pretty sure it's the same as the Antarctic Ossiclation (AAO). The modes gives a clue as to the strength of the polar vortex and positioning of systems in the southern ocean. It's been mainly positive for quite some time, this year it gave signals early on of switching. I made a call for a great ski season back at the beginning of April and successfully predicted a high occurence of ECL's. All thanks to you guys and the idea of teleconnections which is not much discussed down there.

Any chance you can make a similar prediction for the northern hemisphere's ski season - especially the Dolomites

[carinthian]

Bang on cue ,latest temperature data from the Buoys nearest to the pole show daytime temperatures have started to remain below freezing point. For the next 3 months,the temperature drops on average 2 C per week at the pole.

C

[londonsnow]

Bang on cue ,latest temperature data from the Buoys nearest to the pole show daytime temperatures have started to remain below freezing point. For the next 3 months,the temperature drops on average 2 C per week at the pole.

C

hi carinthian,

when you say bang on cue, does that mean according to the long term average...ie as per normal?

[carinthian]

hi carinthian,

when you say bang on cue, does that mean according to the long term average...ie as per normal?

Hi London snow,

Almost with-out fail the first week in August sees a return of -ve C temperatures at or close to the pole itself. In 12 weeks time temperatures will be around -25 C .

C

[oldsnowywizard]

Hi London snow,

Almost with-out fail the first week in August sees a return of -ve C temperatures at or close to the pole itself. In 12 weeks time temperatures will be around -25 C .

C

hi Carinth do you have a link to this data?

[kippure]

Bang on cue ,latest temperature data from the Buoys nearest to the pole show daytime temperatures have started to remain below freezing point. For the next 3 months,the temperature drops on average 2 C per week at the pole.

C

Thats good for us ? That the tempetures are dropping already!

[carinthian]

hi Carinth do you have a link to this data?

Hi OSW,

Type in North Pole Environmental Observatory in your search engine- should open the link for you.

C

Thats good for us ? That the tempetures are dropping already!

Hi Kippure,

Nothing unsual in that, however on time.

C