Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

[trevw]

p3, thanks for the clarification, there seems to be little in the way of visible polyna on the satelite images on cryosphere except for the small one on the beaufort sea side of things.. does this mean the two figures are relatively close to being 'in step' this year? Is there anywhere we can find the current figures for ice extent as opposed to area?

[parmenides3]

p3, thanks for the clarification, there seems to be little in the way of visible polyna on the satelite images on cryosphere except for the small one on the beaufort sea side of things.. does this mean the two figures are relatively close to being 'in step' this year? Is there anywhere we can find the current figures for ice extent as opposed to area?

trevw: there's a lot of data available via the NSIDC: http://nsidc.org/sotc/index.html takes you to the menu. If you click on the sea ice index, you'll see analysis and discussion of the July extent and anomaly for noth hemispheres. I'd draw your attention to that graph of the July 2007 anomaly as evidence for what Carinthian said earlier; this is as bad as its ever been for the time of year. If you want to go further, you can access most of the data files and animations from the various links; it takes a while to get around, so don't rush it.

Somewhere there is a correlation graph for extent vs. area; I can't remember where, but the difference between the two does vary; area can be anything from 60-95% of extent, depending on season and conditions. It's worth keeping an eye on both.

:)P

PS: I got the dates the wrong way round: NSIDC says 2005, CT says '02. !

Edited August 9, 2007 by parmenides3

[SMU]

Carinth's just off topic for a moment-

I hope you are well.....

Ive read a number of reports of seen some decent pics today of substantial Summer snowfall over the Alps & into Switzerland-

How is this relative to the Norm....

I know the ice isnt very robust this year but that aside there are some interesting weather events going on as we head towards Autumn & Winter.....

S

[carinthian]

Carinth's just off topic for a moment-

I hope you are well.....

Ive read a number of reports of seen some decent pics today of substantial Summer snowfall over the Alps & into Switzerland-

How is this relative to the Norm....

I know the ice isnt very robust this year but that aside there are some interesting weather events going on as we head towards Autumn & Winter.....

S

Hi Steve,

As you know the jet streak has been active for quite a bit this summer across Southern England into France and Switzerland. Colder air aloft has maintained a lower than average snow line, particularly in the Western Alps and as far East as the Voralborg Region in Western Austria. Many parts of Upper Austria and the Southern Alpine regions have a up to recently have had a hot summer in contrast. However, I pleased to report that there is more snow retention this summer on Gloss Grockner ( I will send you a live picture when the cloud has lifted)

Yes , the Arctic ice not good in the North American and Siberian sectors, but signs of early cooling now taking place on the Arctic Coast of Northern Canada.

I have a feeling you are going to busy this winter with early than normal cold snaps. I will be looking for your progs.

Cheers

C

[SMU]

Hi Steve,

As you know the jet streak has been active for quite a bit this summer across Southern England into France and Switzerland. Colder air aloft has maintained a lower than average snow line, particularly in the Western Alps and as far East as the Voralborg Region in Western Austria. Many parts of Upper Austria and the Southern Alpine regions have a up to recently have had a hot summer in contrast. However, I pleased to report that there is more snow retention this summer on Gloss Grockner ( I will send you a live picture when the cloud has lifted)

Yes , the Arctic ice not good in the North American and Siberian sectors, but signs of early cooling now taking place on the Arctic Coast of Northern Canada.

I have a feeling you are going to busy this winter with early than normal cold snaps. I will be looking for your progs.

Cheers

C

Thanks Carinths....

Maybe the abnormal Weather Patterns can hold up throughout the Autumn & onto the Winter, Anything close to a 79 will be great- But i wont be holding my breath....

I have a feeling this could be the year- however I tend to have the same feeling around August each year when the first Svalbard webcam gets posted....

S

[Red Raven]

Hi Steve,

As you know the jet streak has been active for quite a bit this summer across Southern England into France and Switzerland. Colder air aloft has maintained a lower than average snow line, particularly in the Western Alps and as far East as the Voralborg Region in Western Austria. Many parts of Upper Austria and the Southern Alpine regions have a up to recently have had a hot summer in contrast. However, I pleased to report that there is more snow retention this summer on Gloss Grockner ( I will send you a live picture when the cloud has lifted)

Yes , the Arctic ice not good in the North American and Siberian sectors, but signs of early cooling now taking place on the Arctic Coast of Northern Canada.

I have a feeling you are going to busy this winter with early than normal cold snaps. I will be looking for your progs.

Cheers

C

I've been following this chart for Davos all summer and willing the temperature below the average line. It does show that this year is indeed a cooler one compared to last.

http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/web/en/cli...stationDAV.html

Also follow this Cam which can be quite depressing really seeing how small and blue the marmolada glacier looks (marmolada is in the Dolomites, Italy)

http://www.marmolada.com/webcam.htm

[Stratos Ferric]

The latest news from Cryosphere Today: rather depressing reading:

Today, the Northern Hemisphere sea ice area broke the record for the lowest recorded ice area in recorded history. The new record came a full month before the historic summer minimum typically occurs. There is still a month or more of melt likely this year. It is therefore almost certain that the previous 2005 record will be annihilated by the final 2007 annual minima closer to the end of this summer. In previous record sea ice minima years, ice area anomalies were confined to certain sectors (N. Atlantic, Beaufort/Bering Sea, etc). The character of 2007's sea ice melt is unique in that it is dramatic and covers the entire Arctic sector. Atlantic, Pacific and even the central Arctic sectors are showing large negative sea ice area anomalies.

The current extent of the polar ice is around 1/3 down on par - and we wondered where all the cold water in the Atlantic was coming from!

[PersianPaladin]

The latest news from Cryosphere Today: rather depressing reading:

Today, the Northern Hemisphere sea ice area broke the record for the lowest recorded ice area in recorded history. The new record came a full month before the historic summer minimum typically occurs. There is still a month or more of melt likely this year. It is therefore almost certain that the previous 2005 record will be annihilated by the final 2007 annual minima closer to the end of this summer. In previous record sea ice minima years, ice area anomalies were confined to certain sectors (N. Atlantic, Beaufort/Bering Sea, etc). The character of 2007's sea ice melt is unique in that it is dramatic and covers the entire Arctic sector. Atlantic, Pacific and even the central Arctic sectors are showing large negative sea ice area anomalies.

The current extent of the polar ice is around 1/3 down on par - and we wondered where all the cold water in the Atlantic was coming from!

Depressing indeed; and thus, as you say, the likely culprit of our cold anamolies in the northern and central Atlantic...steepening SST gradients towards our latitudes and helping to stir a more vigorous jet-stream. I suspect that this could result in a temporary cool-zone for north-west Europe as well as highly unsettled weather as maritime areas take the brunt of these steepening oceanic anamolies; with eastern continental areas developing feedback high pressure cells and much higher temps to compensate.

It'll be interesting though on how this all affects our winter in terms of how these cooler anamolies influence the subtropical high pressure-zone and how far south it migrates. I suspect our winter may end up being quite a mess...synoptic wise.

Edited August 9, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Mammatus]

The latest news from Cryosphere Today: rather depressing reading:

Today, the Northern Hemisphere sea ice area broke the record for the lowest recorded ice area in recorded history. The new record came a full month before the historic summer minimum typically occurs. There is still a month or more of melt likely this year. It is therefore almost certain that the previous 2005 record will be annihilated by the final 2007 annual minima closer to the end of this summer. In previous record sea ice minima years, ice area anomalies were confined to certain sectors (N. Atlantic, Beaufort/Bering Sea, etc). The character of 2007's sea ice melt is unique in that it is dramatic and covers the entire Arctic sector. Atlantic, Pacific and even the central Arctic sectors are showing large negative sea ice area anomalies.

The current extent of the polar ice is around 1/3 down on par - and we wondered where all the cold water in the Atlantic was coming from!

Melancholy. Worrying times.

Depressing indeed; and thus, as you say, the likely culprit of our cold anamolies in the northern and central Atlantic...steepening SST gradients towards our latitudes and helping to stir a more vigorous jet-stream. I suspect that this could result in a temporary cool-zone for north-west Europe as well as highly unsettled weather as maritime areas take the brunt of these steepening oceanic anamolies; with eastern continental areas developing feedback high pressure cells and much higher temps to compensate.

Very good point PP, could bode well for an active/powerful Jetstream over the coming months. The signs are manifest already.

Mammatus

[PersianPaladin]

Melancholy. Worrying times.

Very good point PP, could bode well for an active/powerful Jetstream over the coming months. The signs are manifest already.

Mammatus

Yep....and I am obviously not the first person to point that out. Its plane for all to see....and it is quite concerning.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The current extent of the polar ice is around 1/3 down on par - and we wondered where all the cold water in the Atlantic was coming from!

I presume this was a joke. Little teases like these are how myths are seeded you know!

[PersianPaladin]

I presume this was a joke. Little teases like these are how myths are seeded you know!

Heh

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

[Stratos Ferric]

I presume this was a joke. Little teases like these are how myths are seeded you know!

I have conceded in a PM to one of our number that mhy message included some not very apparent flippancy. You don't need to know too much about ocean currents to realise that such immediate cause-effect would be exceedingly unlikely. That said, the pole has been melting more rapidly and significantly than normal for a few years now; sooner or later a tipping point will be reached. I'm not saying this is it, but I'd continue to watch with a more trained eye than normal.

Depressing indeed; and thus, as you say, the likely culprit of our cold anamolies in the northern and central Atlantic...steepening SST gradients towards our latitudes and helping to stir a more vigorous jet-stream. I suspect that this could result in a temporary cool-zone for north-west Europe as well as highly unsettled weather as maritime areas take the brunt of these steepening oceanic anamolies; with eastern continental areas developing feedback high pressure cells and much higher temps to compensate.

It'll be interesting though on how this all affects our winter in terms of how these cooler anamolies influence the subtropical high pressure-zone and how far south it migrates. I suspect our winter may end up being quite a mess...synoptic wise.

The anomaly in the NW Atlantic has actually been exceptionally warm, that aside, your short-term prognosis is quite plausible. The rich irony might be that we end up with more northern sourced air than in recent years, but with an even bigger modification than has recently (and disappointingly) tended to be the case.

[PersianPaladin]

I have conceded in a PM to one of our number that mhy message included some not very apparent flippancy. You don't need to know too much about ocean currents to realise that such immediate cause-effect would be exceedingly unlikely. That said, the pole has been melting more rapidly and significantly than normal for a few years now; sooner or later a tipping point will be reached. I'm not saying this is it, but I'd continue to watch with a more trained eye than normal.

I do suspect that the cooler north Atlantic has somewhat played a very significant role in our wet summer. Of course; this was not the only factor...but if such a trend continues then it will go from a synoptic blip to a more permanent semi-climatic feature. We are of course, pretty far from that scenario though.

[Stratos Ferric]

I do suspect that the cooler north Atlantic has somewhat played a very significant role in our wet summer. Of course; this was not the only factor...but if such a trend continues then it will go from a synoptic blip to a more permanent semi-climatic feature. We are of course, pretty far from that scenario though.

These pools can come and go fairly quickly; I agree with your caution at the end.

[PersianPaladin]

The anomaly in the NW Atlantic has actually been exceptionally warm, that aside, your short-term prognosis is quite plausible. The rich irony might be that we end up with more northern sourced air than in recent years, but with an even bigger modification than has recently (and disappointingly) tended to be the case.

Which NOAA anamoly charts have I been viewing then? Lol.

The picture south of Greenland seemed to be generally a one with notably less warm +ve anamolies.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Heh

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Sorry PP, if I wasn't clear - I know the address of cryosphere page. I'm still waiting for email from William Chapman explaining the change to the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice chart.

The current extent of the polar ice is around 1/3 down on par - and we wondered where all the cold water in the Atlantic was coming from!

Very funny but I think it needed sarcasm tags. If I wasn't so familiar with the changing SSTAs over the last few months I would have taken this at face value.

Stratos - just read your second post. Thanks for the clarification

Edited August 9, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Stratos Ferric]

Which NOAA anamoly charts have I been viewing then? Lol.

The picture south of Greenland seemed to be generally a one with notably less warm +ve anamolies.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

[Iceberg]

Just a quick shout IMO William will not respond to the mail, he's had lots of these and they just lead to more emails and arguments (although I agree maybe a note on the site would help. It's nothing really to do with him and is totally down to a recalibration by NASA.

It's anoying, but don't hold your breath.

[oldsnowywizard]

hi all some important facts and questions to ask about the current Arctic Conditions:-

99% certainty that this year will record the lowest sea ice levels in our time.

Question - Is this just sea ice or has there also been a dramatic reduction in Greenlands Ice cap?

Question - Have air temperatures been abnormally high over the Arctic and Greenland this year?

Question - have sea temperature been abnormally high in and around the arctic this year?

Question - If there is increased freshwater, what affect is this having on the gulf stream? or are we already experiencing this in regards to the summer so far?

question - Could NW Europe see a cold winter as indicated by NASA and a few others because of the gulf stream being affected?

Question - Will the sea ice levels recover?

some i can try and find the answers to but they are any information at the moment is based on todays figures and ceratin websites so as always the information is only as good as the data gathered. Perhaps i can ask that some other expeerts can try and answer some of these questions and also ask more?

regarding the current sea temps -

todays sea surface temps

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/U...DA.glbl_sst.gif

todays anomolies

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/U..._sstanomaly.gif

compared to last year

anomolies - https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/A..._sstanomaly.gif

ok so they have changed their colour coding!!but you can see that there are areas showing +11 degrees C!

regarding sea ice levels recovering -

Freshwater without salt will freeze around 0 degrees C, once salt is added the water will freeze at lower temperatures. In theory there should be alot more freshwater about, which should mean that sea ice levels should recover.

What will happen to the air temperatures though? this area is beyond my ability, however i will add my opinion... Greenland due to its thick Ice levels will see 850hpa temps of -20 to -40 during winter, partly due to the height of the ice? i assume there is a relationship between the makeup of the ground and air temps?would i be correct in assuming therefore that lower ice levels and now more open water in the arctic could result in warmer 850 hpa temps and therefore warmer surface temps..therefore reducing the ability of sea ice recovery?

the caevat to all of this though is that sea ice volumes may recover, however the thickness may not! i would though assume there would be more snow falling?

*** ok so many factors to consider****

brain overload and i have to go to work means i cant finish this!

[Stratos Ferric]

hi all some important facts and questions to ask about the current Arctic Conditions:-

99% certainty that this year will record the lowest sea ice levels in our time.

Not sure how you're accounting for the missing 1% given that they already are at an all time low in the measured record.

Temperatures have been warm in places over summer, but the effect is not a sudden one; it's just a continuation of what's been ongoing for a while. I would expect the rate of melt to increase over time for a number of reasons. First up the climate continues to warm; second up this introduces positive feedbacks (the total albedo is reduced meaning that the lower atmosphere warms even more). Thirdly, the ratio of surface area: volume increases the smaller an object becomes. Like unwinding a ball of string, walking towards a distant hill, or eating an ice cream cone, the apparent reduction in volume increases with time. The polar ice is melting at the margins, but margins are not only edges, but also all surfaces. The ice is not only getting smaller in area, it's getting much smaller in mass, and this combines to increase the rate of melt, all other things being equal of course.

Too soon to tell what the impact locally will be. There are arguments both ways. Short term there might be some cooling locally, but the wider impact is one of accelerated positive feedback to the warming cycle, and even if we did down slightly, this would be dampened by ongoing background warming, and would soon be liable to a sharp upwards correction in any case once the cool water has dissipated.

One point of pedantry if I might: melting ice might impact the North Atlantic Drift but it will have little immediate or material effect on the Gulf Stream, which resides much further SW. Childhood lessons have much to answer for in placing in our minds the idea that the Gulf Stream keeps the UK disproportionately warm for latitude; the correct definition is actually the NAD which is a continuation of the Gulf Stream.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Just a quick shout IMO William will not respond to the mail, he's had lots of these and they just lead to more emails and arguments (although I agree maybe a note on the site would help. It's nothing really to do with him and is totally down to a recalibration by NASA.

It's anoying, but don't hold your breath.

Don't worry, I've only sent the one emai. btw do you have a source for this?

[Iceberg]

NW also has the below thread to talk about tipping points and climatic effects. :o

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1040876.

It was in a mail I saw from him, it wasn't yours he was complaining about per se more the 100 other ones... He's actually a very approachable guy who normally responds to mails within a day or so.

[parmenides3]

Just remember, the US universities are on Summer recess at the moment, so he may be on his holidays...

:)P

[Iceberg]

I've not spoken to him since the end of June so you could be right P3.