Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

[carinthian]

Nice shot of the Hans Glacier today on Spitzbergen.

http://www.hornsund.com/

C

[Polar Continental]

Nice shot of the Hans Glacier today on Spitzbergen.

http://www.hornsund.com/

C

Thanks carinthian, some great shots of a wonderful arctic wilderness, it’s nice to see that some areas are still managing to survive and look mostly unspoiled, despite the swarming hordes of man on most other islands and continents.

Paul

[Iceberg]

I would love to go on a cruise up there, it won't be until the children are grown up though and somthing tell's me it will have changed a lot by then.

Mass melting still going on by the warm plume and NW passage could well be open in say 3 weeks time.

[summer blizzard]

I'm actually sceptical that the north west passage will open completely this year, the mid-lattitude thermal peak is around the beggining of August, for the area in question, it will occur sometime between now and then, thus i am not so sure.

As for our side of the Arctic, it looks to be holding up very well and should this continue, we should have a nice area of ice available for winter.

[carinthian]

Afternoon,

I presently like the linement of the Polar Ice Edge currently 81N just of Svalbard. This edge is 2 degrees further south than last year and more importantly reports of a good ice concentration in this area has been maintained so far this summer with 1.5m ice thickness. Good news as the sun is slowly hilting to the horizon. Lets hope the Arctic Ice Edge in the higher Barent Sea and Lower Arctic Basin holds firm.

C

[Iceberg]

Our side of the ice is doing a bit better than last year, hope it continues through.

The NW passage is currently experiencing some very high temps and will continue to do so for awhile yet, still difficult to judge but think this might well be the year.

[Iceberg]

A few more pics I find interesting.

Current, this time last year and max last year. Some very noticable differences.

Matt

[NorthYorksWeather]

hmm quite worrying, looks like alot less ice compared to this time last year,our side of the artic looks liek it doing well but the other side looks like its deteoriating rapidly, is this due to all the warm air coming out of the north canada/alaska area?

[carinthian]

Evening,

Worrying report today. The continuing poleward heat transfer of very warm Pacific tropical air is taking a terrible toll in loss of sea ice in the Western Canadian/East Siberian Arctic Sectors. Study of the latest sea ice maps show a lot of open water and continued rapid break up if the ice sheet . Today is recording the largest Ice- Anomaly loss for 30 years -some nearly 2 million sq Km less ice. That is a huge portion of summer time ice to lose.

However, the Arctic Basin is currently holding on to its old ice (any loss here would really set the alarm bells ringing ) and the European Sectors are generally better than last summer.

C

Hi Vizzy 2004,

The above post from last week may help with your question.

C

[noggin]

Several members have mentioned that "our side" of the Arctic is doing quite well, but not so the "other side".

Now here is what will probably sound like a silly idea, but......could it be that the effect of this will be to sort of bring the ice cap a bit more over the top of the Earth so that it might influence our weather a bit more? You know....more of it on "our" side than "their" side.

Carinth.......as an aside, there is a huge boulder not far from me which has been a roadside "signpost" for ever (as far as I am aware!) It contains carved placenames with carved hands and pointing fingers. Looks Victorian or even earlier. The Council do maintain this wondeful thing, I'm glad to say!

[John Cox]

Hi Carinthian/noggin,

Lurking as usual on the wait for the winter season but do appreciate the effort you guys put into your posting.

I love your suggestion noggin about more ice our side of the artic being a good sign.

A simple and straight forward suggestion. I like it.

Just enjoying a super thunderstorm at the moment. Its been a great day with lots of storms and heavy rain.

Next best thing to snow.

[Big Bear]

Several members have mentioned that "our side" of the Arctic is doing quite well, but not so the "other side".

Now here is what will probably sound like a silly idea, but......could it be that the effect of this will be to sort of bring the ice cap a bit more over the top of the Earth so that it might influence our weather a bit more? You know....more of it on "our" side than "their" side.

Carinth.......as an aside, there is a huge boulder not far from me which has been a roadside "signpost" for ever (as far as I am aware!) It contains carved placenames with carved hands and pointing fingers. Looks Victorian or even earlier. The Council do maintain this wondeful thing, I'm glad to say!

Yes that could hold some logic since high pressure blocks are influenced by snow covered areas and a nice anti cyclone to our north could be aided by this with the polar high shifting towards Europe. Also there is evidence that extensive snow reflects solar radiation, further increasing the likelyhood of below average surface temps, providing the cold is there in the first place!

[jethro]

Carinthian, if you get time could you cast your experienced eye over these papers please? I'd appreciate your views as to how much baring this may or may not have on the current situation.

Many thanks

http://www.frontier.iarc.uaf.edu/~igor/res.../50yr/index.php

http://www.frontier.iarc.uaf.edu/~igor/res...ata/sat_slp.php

http://www.frontier.iarc.uaf.edu/~igor/res...onvec/index.php

[carinthian]

Several members have mentioned that "our side" of the Arctic is doing quite well, but not so the "other side".

Now here is what will probably sound like a silly idea, but......could it be that the effect of this will be to sort of bring the ice cap a bit more over the top of the Earth so that it might influence our weather a bit more? You know....more of it on "our" side than "their" side.

Carinth.......as an aside, there is a huge boulder not far from me which has been a roadside "signpost" for ever (as far as I am aware!) It contains carved placenames with carved hands and pointing fingers. Looks Victorian or even earlier. The Council do maintain this wondeful thing, I'm glad to say!

Hi Noggin and my friend JC,

Iceberg has posted some striking comparisons to this time last year. I have never seen such an in-balance in the present sea ice distribution before, so I don't know what effect it will have on our weather..but very interesting that the ice thickness to the North of Svalbard is much thicker this summer. Maybe there is a push southwards out of the Angara Basin ?

Glad to here about the sign post...wish all councils would see sense !

C

[Great Plum]

I would love to go on a cruise up there, it won't be until the children are grown up though and somthing tell's me it will have changed a lot by then.

Mass melting still going on by the warm plume and NW passage could well be open in say 3 weeks time.

Has the NW passage ever been 'open'?

[carinthian]

Has the NW passage ever been 'open'?

Great Plum,

The channels between the islands are completely frozen most of the year,but 'open' of ice in places in late summer, the ice being very variable from year to year.

C

[summer blizzard]

Carinthian, suprisingly, despite the very high temperatures over that side of the Arctic, the average of the ensembles indicates that the Polar Votex may begin to form over eastern Canada/Greenland around the 27th, if this occurs, it will be the earliest formation of a Polar Vorrtex since 2003, though similar conditions also occured in 2002 and 2001, so it should slow the rate of Ice melt in the Canadian sectors at the very least, so hints that a pattern change may be underway.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnz500m10.gif

What were the dates for the sea ice minima in 2001, 2002 and 2003, and where do they rank in terms of top ten ice loss??

[carinthian]

Carinthian, suprisingly, despite the very high temperatures over that side of the Arctic, the average of the ensembles indicates that the Polar Votex may begin to form over eastern Canada/Greenland around the 27th, if this occurs, it will be the earliest formation of a Polar Vorrtex since 2003, though similar conditions also occured in 2002 and 2001, so it should slow the rate of Ice melt in the Canadian sectors at the very least, so hints that a pattern change may be underway.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnz500m10.gif

What were the dates for the sea ice minima in 2001, 2002 and 2003, and where do they rank in terms of top ten ice loss??

Evening SB,

Well picked up. That is encouraging news. The Eastern Canadian Arctic Sector has certainly faired a lot better than the Western Sector. The hint of a pattern change could herald an early Autumn .

C

[summer blizzard]

Evening SB,

Well picked up. That is encouraging news. The Eastern Canadian Arctic Sector has certainly faired a lot better than the Western Sector. The hint of a pattern change could herald an early Autumn .

C

Indeed, i believe a similar event occured in recent years as well over Canada, within a month they had gone from recording almost record warmth to almost record cold for the time of year, it may have been 2004 or 2005.

[Iceberg]

I am not sure that's a PV, its just really a movement of the upper cold pool that's been ruining our weather all summer, the 00Z places it firmly back over us again leaving that part of the arctic back in the warmer weather.

The inbalance in the Ice IF it continues will certiainly effect our weather but nobody's going to know how, there is still generally less ice in our sector than during the 70's and 80's, but if it leads to early snow cover then it might help to encourage a good feedback effect.

Recent Temps from the NW passage area over the past 30 days are below. As to how often it happens, I think it's happened 3 years in the last 100, with the last time in 2006. (But this is only from memory and I am probably totally wrong.!).

Edited July 18, 2007 by Iceberg

[noggin]

Hi, John, Carinth, Big Bear,

I am glad that my simple thoughts (for I am a simple soul) are met this way.

I think it looks quite positive, which is lovely and I am really looking forward to Autumn and Winter.

It's nice to be able to air one's thoughts and toss a few ideas around without fear of being ridiculed! :lol:

[Big Bear]

Can someone more experienced (Caranthian?) please give a brief analysis on the arctic ice behaviour in 2005 on the other side of the globe to us. I would like to see if there is a correlation between higher ice levels in the East Russia/ West Canada regionand the extreme cold & record snowfall that struck Japan in winter 05/06

links attached:

http://www.snowjapan.com/e/gallery/index-snowy-japan.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4591950.stm

Edited July 18, 2007 by Big Bear

[summer blizzard]

Can someone more experienced (Caranthian?) please give a brief analysis on the arctic ice behaviour in 2005 on the other side of the globe to us. I would like to see if there is a correlation between higher ice levels in the East Russia/ West Canada regionand the extreme cold & record snowfall that struck Japan in winter 05/06

links attached:

http://www.snowjapan.com/e/gallery/index-snowy-japan.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4591950.stm

2005 was more similar to this year actually in terms of ice coverage, with pronounced losses on that side of the Arctic.

[summer blizzard]

I am not sure that's a PV, its just really a movement of the upper cold pool that's been ruining our weather all summer, the 00Z places it firmly back over us again leaving that part of the arctic back in the warmer weather.

The inbalance in the Ice IF it continues will certiainly effect our weather but nobody's going to know how, there is still generally less ice in our sector than during the 70's and 80's, but if it leads to early snow cover then it might help to encourage a good feedback effect.

Recent Temps from the NW passage area over the past 30 days are below. As to how often it happens, I think it's happened 3 years in the last 100, with the last time in 2006. (But this is only from memory and I am probably totally wrong.!).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnz500mate.gif

If the ensemble average is right, the NWP has about ten days to open before Autumn arrives over Canada.

It is true that the 1980's observed even more ice coverage over our side of the Arctic however we are still lookin better than in recent years especially, which is a plus.

I agree that it is not a Polar Votex as such, though it is close to becoming one, the chart above illustrates what i would call stage two of three in the formation of a Polar Vortex, in that the upper cold pool has condenced into one area meaning that the cold pool can not be diluted and as such can expand, as the chart below shows.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnz500m15.gif

26th is the day to watch.

[Iceberg]

I am not wanting to be a party pooper wrt a long cold winter but the facts don't stack up at.

1. We have less greenland ice and Barents ice this year than last year (see the attached graphs).

2. If you look at the 2005 pic for the 17th of July there is actually a lot more ice then, there was also more ice in 2004 so we are actually at a low level even for the last 5 years or so (we just arn't quite as low in the arctic circle near us than we were last year.)

I am happy to see a cold winter but not to anticipate it through rose glasses.

The cold pool might be interesting, the upper features of it though are still focused more over Iceland with the coldest 500 air (-25C) located there, the upper temps over north Alaska are around -20C.

Temps are still progged to be above average and you will still have radiative melting, but it will certainly slow down the extent.