Invest Thread

[Iceberg]

We have floater 2 over this little beaut. A very slow mover with more details to follow.

Little pic showing position and current organisation. Rotation is definately there but we need more convection over the centre.

[Iceberg]

I'll deal with invest 94 and 95 together, mainly because I am lazy and they are quite similar.

Both have good circulation, but poor convection, both look to develop in 48+ time.

Neither of them are developed by the tropical models.

The path for 95 is erratic, basically it won't really move or will move around in circles.

94 is heading west.

Ships takes both to Hurricane strength.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

INVEST 94

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070829 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

070829 1800 070830 0600 070830 1800 070831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 48.3W 12.0N 51.2W 13.1N 54.1W 14.1N 57.5W

BAMD 11.0N 48.3W 11.3N 50.6W 11.6N 52.9W 12.1N 55.4W

BAMM 11.0N 48.3W 11.1N 51.3W 11.4N 54.3W 11.7N 57.4W

LBAR 11.0N 48.3W 11.0N 51.2W 11.2N 54.4W 11.5N 57.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

070831 1800 070901 1800 070902 1800 070903 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.7N 60.8W 18.2N 67.1W 20.0N 73.1W 21.2N 77.7W

BAMD 12.6N 58.0W 13.6N 63.3W 14.4N 68.9W 14.9N 74.3W

BAMM 12.4N 60.4W 13.9N 66.9W 15.3N 74.1W 16.0N 81.4W

LBAR 11.9N 61.2W 13.3N 68.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 53KTS 66KTS 79KTS 88KTS

DSHP 53KTS 66KTS 79KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 44.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 41.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 291811

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1811 UTC WED AUG 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

Invest 95

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20070829 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

070829 1800 070830 0600 070830 1800 070831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 30.2N 76.1W 29.4N 76.5W 28.9N 77.0W 28.8N 77.7W

BAMD 30.2N 76.1W 29.0N 76.3W 28.0N 76.8W 27.6N 77.3W

BAMM 30.2N 76.1W 29.2N 76.4W 28.5N 76.9W 28.2N 77.5W

LBAR 30.2N 76.1W 28.8N 76.3W 28.0N 76.9W 27.6N 77.8W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

070831 1800 070901 1800 070902 1800 070903 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 29.0N 78.2W 29.9N 79.6W 30.6N 81.5W 30.4N 82.9W

BAMD 27.8N 77.8W 29.9N 78.0W 32.0N 75.5W 33.0N 70.8W

BAMM 28.5N 78.0W 30.0N 78.8W 31.3N 79.1W 31.1N 77.7W

LBAR 28.1N 78.6W 30.8N 79.4W 33.7N 77.0W 35.5N 71.1W

SHIP 54KTS 68KTS 70KTS 65KTS

DSHP 54KTS 68KTS 70KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 30.2N LONCUR = 76.1W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 31.9N LONM12 = 76.6W DIRM12 = 154DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 33.1N LONM24 = 76.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[kold weather]

Both invests don't look all that healthy right now, indeed probably the area in the Caribbean looks the best out of the lot of them yet thats for another thread.

Anyway firstly 95L, the track really is uncertain simply because in truth there probably is some sort of Baroclinic influence with the system even though its more warm cored then cold right now as the model track shows. However right nowe the convection has been compeltely stripped away from the circulation to the S/E and the most likely reason has to be shear which is present on it, probably from the ULL to its NW. system is drifting south and the further south it goes the less the shear but 95L is going to have to get some convection soon if it wants to develop because it has really no convection aty all, the circulation is pretty decent but is totally naked. No way this is going to be as strong as the SHIPS believe IMO.

94L also is looking a little worse for wear right now as it just spat out a huge outflow boundary which is showing a large scale collapse of the convection it had, maybe a sign of shear also effecting this system as well and I think its not going to have an easy ride over the next 24-48hrs, indeed it may not be much at all by the time it enters the Caribbean. However given the track will take it int othe Caribbean the heat content in there is still pretty impressive and any improvement of the set-up could result in pretty explosive development if it decides to form a LLC but thats probably a few days away if it can do it.

Edited August 29, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Far too many to really comment on at work we now have 94, 95, 96 and 97.

Of all of the above 94L is the only one IMO to have the real potenital. 95L might well make a CAT 1 before it turns extra-tropical.

Ships still takes 94L into a CAT 2 hurricane. Although ships often over plays these things, it is good at picking up potential trends in intensification. From now onwards, but particularly from Friday night onwards 94L might well start to up a gear or two.

Both 94L and 95L now have convection centering over the LLCC centre, the convection isn't too strong atm but cloud tops should start to cool later.

97L is a BOC storm and will hit land very soon and probably can be ignored.

[mettalfabrik]

hi iceberg,can you please explain "ships" or supply a link

cheers

[Iceberg]

Hi,

Ships is a model for forecasting intensity's of tropical storms.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/chg.txt

The link above has the latest SHIPS forecasts for intensity for all Invests. It's bascially the first piece of information we have for every Invest.

It's a bit old and not too accurate, but is useful as a guide.

Hope this helps.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Here is todays lookout, with many areas of interst...

94L as you can see is becoming better defined and there is evidence of a low level circulation forming, recon is expected to visit this system today, and i think it likely that we will have a Tropical Depression, its track would be pretty similar to Hurricane Dean's, and as such i would expect a major hurricane.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A

TROPICAL WAVE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF

THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY

LIMITED...THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED

THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY

WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

95L is no longer an invest...

96L looks to move in land before development can take place...

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT

DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE

LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER

THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING

FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

97L is a wave just east of the Cape Verdi Islands, however it is at a more northerly lattitude than Dean and 94L, and the only real convection is to the south west of the circulation, thus i would'nt expect significant development until early next week, however this could be a threat to Florida or the east coast unless significant recurviture occurs.

4. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS

CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF

ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[kold weather]

94L looks very close to being upgrade this morning with strrong convection blowing up around the elongated center, it should not be all that surprising if recon finds a Td nearing TS strength, certainly I'd expect winds close to tropical storm force when recon goes in there, its just a question of whether it has a closed low level circulation or not. Its future is stil luncertain but providing it can stay clear of any major shear pockets stil lleft the atmopshere looks just about primed again for a fairly strong hurricane however we'll have to see how far north it can get, land interaction with SA may limit the system a touch unless it can get a little further north then it is right now. Track should take it towards the Whirlwind islands and a little north of west and will IMO eventually end up quite close to where Dean made landfall as the synoptics are pretty much exactly the same, if it does develop probably as a hurricane. High to its north is stil lvery strong and can't see gaining much latitude, certainly not enough to be a threat to the US bar maybe S.Texas.

The other noteable system currently is 96L. Reminding me more and more of Chantal. There is some obvious shear present on the invest with all the convection on the NE side of the circulation, also a classic sign of a system not being purely tropical, it probably is a hybrid system though mainly warm cored than cold cored at the moment thoug hthe balance will swing as it heads into cooler and cooler waters. Still there does look like a LLC present exposed but there is some decent convection on its NE. It could well easily be upgraded into Felix IMO but its going to have to do it pretty quickly as its heading to much more unfavorable set-up and it'll go completely extra tropical.

[Iceberg]

94L is looking very good, latest quikscat indicates some very strong winds in there.

[dallas]

94L is looking very good, latest quikscat indicates some very strong winds in there.

NOAA has issued a special statement for that storm

[memories of 63]

This is what they have said about it

000

WONT41 KNHC 311310

DSAAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

910 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL

WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST

OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL INVESTIGATE

THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM IF A DEPRESSION HAS

FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD BE READY

TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...

HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[tcc]

Have you seen the latest satellite image for 94L? It looks a beaut! As long as it stays away from the Yucatan, I'll be happy to watch this one develop! B)

[Iceberg]

Recon should get there at around 7.00pm maybe a little after so we should get an update and TD creation then.

[kold weather]

Yeah it does look good now, I suspect we will have TD6 very soon based on its current organisation. Models all seem to track it into the S.Caribbean then towards Nicaragua/Hounduras and given the strength of the high presently to its north I see no reason why that won't be the case. If you want a famous storm that this reminds me, it'd be hurricane Edith. I don't think it'll be as strong mind you as it may be a touch further south but the area of water over Sw caribbean does support major hurricanes as we saw with Beta in 05.

[dallas]

Have you seen the latest satellite image for 94L? It looks a beaut! As long as it stays away from the Yucatan, I'll be happy to watch this one develop! B)

Starting to spin now, it seems to have developed quite quickly

[Iceberg]

Spinning up indeed, Winds of 45+kt are being shown with circulation, Recon is currently in the system,so an upgrade is certainly coming ASAP, maybe straight to a TS.

Good outflow as well.

[Iceberg]

Dvorak of 2.0 which equates to 30Kt and a TD

Surface winds of 30Kt but flight winds not quite so high.

Shy of a TS on real findings but plenty of info there. to justify a TD.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 31/19:05:30Z

B. 11 deg 34 min N

058 deg 13 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. 30 kt

E. 148 deg 027 nm

F. 216 deg 025 kt

G. 148 deg 025 nm

H. EXTRAP 1009 mb

I. 21 C/ 396 m

J. 23 C/ 392 m

K. 22 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 01345/01

O. 0.02 / 6 nm

P. AF305 01FFA INVEST OB 14

MAX FL WIND 25 KT SE QUAD 18:57:40 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[Iceberg]

94L has been called TD6 and therefore he has his own thread, bless him....... BTW Flight winds have been upped to 36Kt

[mettalfabrik]

NEARLY STATIONARY AND RATHER STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[Iceberg]

Even more coming 98L is now up and looks to be following a similar track to Felix IF it develops.

[Iceberg]

A bit more on 98L which I have to admit is looking pretty good atm.

Ships calls for intensification after about 48 hours.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 36.0W 13.7N 38.3W 13.9N 40.6W 14.0N 43.0W

BAMD 13.5N 36.0W 13.8N 39.0W 13.9N 41.9W 14.0N 44.7W

BAMM 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.2W 13.6N 40.6W 13.6N 42.8W

LBAR 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.7W 13.8N 41.4W 14.1N 43.9W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 30KTS 35KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.1N 45.6W 14.8N 50.5W 15.4N 55.8W 15.8N 61.0W

BAMD 14.1N 47.4W 14.9N 52.7W 15.7N 58.1W 16.2N 63.7W

BAMM 13.4N 45.0W 13.4N 49.6W 13.5N 54.2W 13.7N 58.9W

LBAR 14.4N 46.6W 15.0N 51.6W 14.9N 55.9W 12.2N 58.2W

SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 57KTS

DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 57KTS

[summer blizzard]

In regards to 98L, i have been watching it for the past few days and it does show potential, right now, there are two things hindering it...

1) Dry air being drawn in on its north eastern side, though there is a lot less than was present in 94L...

2) It will still encounter light to moderate shear until around 70W...

These things to me mean that development should be expected, just not particually fast, so my call would be for a Tropical Depression in the 48-72 hour timeframe, however it is already further north than Dean and 94L at this stage, thus this could be one for Florida to watch out for.

[Iceberg]

Yep agree SB, 48 hours time this one could be very interesting, I am impressed at it's structure already tbh evidence of limited outflow and some circulation.

Latest paths.

[kold weather]

As SB said shear is a little noteable on this one which should provide for slow development rather then anything quicker, though heat content increases from here on westwards and shear should slowly ease off a touch as it hads westwards. It's long term track is hard to say right now but its further north then Felix and Dean at the same point so could well be more of a GOM threat then the others. Same srong upper feature taking Felix will take 98L as well at least for the next few days.

Still too early to say its track so I won't make any firm comment other then to say USA should be watching as should the Caribbean.

[Gray-Wolf]

If you look at the water Vap. loop of the flow of West Africa you can see the 'wave' mid Atlantic but also the building of the next one (with a busy look over land!) to flop off the continent. Some of the models pick this one up at the Cape Verde islands so maybe in another 7 days we could see more action through the Caribbean?