Invest Thread

[Gray-Wolf]

After looking at the sat lops 91L looks like it may snowball through today into something quite well formed. You can already see rotation and equal outflow so todays convection may be enough to deepen it into a fledgling 'cane.

90L, well it may have lost it's convection overnight but that does allow you to see the rotation at ground level and now that it has 'fired up' again you can also see upper level outflow. It's not dead in the water yet!

Edited September 12, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Iceberg]

Things are happening apace now with Invest 91L.

A solid CDO seems to have formed with strong evidence of outlflow, limited evidence of shear.

This is now almost certainly a TD and should be named in the next advisory with either 25 or 30Kt winds.

Path is still solid NW.

[Iceberg]

This has now been named TD08 so I will start a new thread, looking good too.

[Gray-Wolf]

There seems to be two areas of rapid development today. One is blossoming off the S.American coast, due south of the Dom. Rep. and the other is north of Ingrid's last known plot due east of Florida (quite a bit east actually). It's still a pretty messy picture aloft so whether anything will have the space to fully develop is another thing entirely!

[mezzacyclone]

Any chances of an overall update and current summary so far pls?

Seems to have quietened down too much in relation to the above average predictions of named storms that i assume we have not yet seen?

[Gray-Wolf]

The past 2 weeks has brough major flooding in Africa under the ITCZ so maybe we are looking at a busy end to the season? Any thoughts out there?

[Gray-Wolf]

Well 93L has made it across Florida and is now into the G.O.M. If it develops further it seems to be in a kinder environment than the Mid Atlantic/Caribbean. Maybe one to watch? Will it won't it?

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe I jumped the gun there! 93L is still quite 'loose' and appears to be more centred off the Florida coast and the Bahamas. They reckon it could develop once into the G.O.M.

[Somerset Squall]

I've been watching this and it is slowly becoming more organised as it heads over the warm waters of the eastern GOM. The NHC are expecting it to develop into a sub-tropical or tropical storm anytime in the next 24 hours and the storm will be investigated by aircraft this afternoon.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN

MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 100

MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR

DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY

BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT DOES NOT YET HAVE THE

CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT OFFSHORE NOAA

AUTOMATED STATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM

WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA

LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL

BE INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.

[mettalfabrik]

subtropical depression 10 latest

WTNT25 KNHC 211453

TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007

1500 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM

APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI

RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.5W AT 21/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.5W AT 21/1500Z

AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.7N 86.6W

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.1N 88.1W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.6N 90.3W...INLAND

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 31.5N 93.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[summer blizzard]

Okay, the Tropics are putting out again...

We have 94L (last 94L was Felix, could we see a repeat??)..

This wave has a large moisture base and is showing potential, it will be over the Yucatan during Sunday, however it will emerge under an upper high, meaning a light steering pattern and upper divergance, which should lead to development, with likely landfall in Texas or Luisianna as a category 1/2 hurricane IMO...

RECON will investigate this system at 13:00 (GMT) sunday.

We have 95L..

This is the rememnants of a frontal system and could develop into a Sub-Tropical Depression however at 30N and moving directly north, we shoul'dnt expect development..

We have 96L...

This is a strong Tropical Wave which exited Africa yesterday and has a good circulation, even the NHC is calling for development, if it can maintain low lattitude, we could see a significant hurricane.

Edited September 22, 2007 by summer blizzard

[kold weather]

Yep, for what its worth 95L is about to upgraded to at least a subtropical depression and no doubt will become a subtropical storm as well IMO.

94L probably is a little way away from becoming a tropical depression and ther eis a fair jet streak present at the moment but its going to lift out on Monday and once its back over waters its perfectly possible for us to see a system out of this.

96L looks like a long term tracker IMO. Its pretty far south for a tropical system and while I'm not sure that the circulation is well defined it has a VERY impressive convective organisation right now, so much so that it could devlop pretty readily once it gains a closed low, has a fair shot at being a TD in the next 24hrs IMO.

track probably to the W/WNW looks most likely right now given its southerly latitude.

EDIT---Now got 97L as well, 4 active systems and all could well develop eventually. 97L is the system a little to the east of the Lesser Antilles and has also a good convective coverage though not sure how great of a circulation it has. models forecasting it to head NW into the Caribbean...

Tropics on fire right now!

Edited September 23, 2007 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Tropics on fire right now!

Certainly is! The NHC are hinting at all of these for development and are also highlighting an area to the east of the Lesser Antilles, but upper level conditons are unfavourable here for development. If these all develop (not out of the question), then we could have another 1995- when 4 cyclones were active on the same day (Humberto, Iris, Jerry and Karen).

[Iceberg]

97L is looking good for an invest atm, GFDL takes it to a TD, but it still needs to develop for that to come off.

96L is still looking very good, Quikscat indicates an elongated centre, it has got good banding but needs to maintain convection in the centre to be upgraded. Until it gets the centre sorted out I don't think we will see the tropical models picking up on it too much. There is still the possibility that 96L just dies.

[Gray-Wolf]

There's also a blob of rapid convection in the middle of the Gulf that might need watching! Obviously conditions for development are prime as it drifts north towards the U.S. Coast. Busy times afoot!

[kold weather]

94L has really flared up over the past 9-12hrs it seems with the circulation now tucked underneath the deep convection. Shear is still somewhat present but its not really all that strong right now and is reducing, as is reflected by the way the circulation has tucked underneath the convection recently. It'll be vinteresting to see if it can keep this up, if it can then it could well be a tropical depression in 12-24hrs time.

97L is currently being sheared it appears and probably won't develop much if at all over the next 2-3 days but as it heads deeper in the Caribbean the models, esp the tropical models are showing some development, indeed GFDL takes it upto cat-1 status as does SHIPS eventually, though very little development occurs before 24-48hrs.

96L is probably the best looking system presently and IMO is actually probably already a tropical depression. NHC claim the data doesn't support it but I think if this was in the gulf it would be upgraded right now...

The only issue i can think of not to upgrade it to a TD right now is its very large convective coverage xmay be suggestive of a slack broad circulation and it may need to tighten up a little bit before it gets upgraded. Should be noted this looks like its going to be a chunky system, it has a huge mass of convection along with it and also a pretty large circulation and so this may be one of those massive Cape Verde hurricane sin the future.

All three invests may develop, but 94L and 96L have the best shot, 97L may develop but not much in the short term (say in the next 2-3 days)

[Iceberg]

Just lookinga t 96L in a bit more detail.

This is almost certainly going to Fish IMO. It's interesting that the GM's seem to be going for it, I've included the ECM from tonight it which is very nice.

It develops it in quite a realistic way IMO, it also looks as if it's going to get caught in the Jet and head towards us as a very strong storm. A finger in the air estimate is a pass by Ireland on the 8th of October, sub tropical in nature but still with 80Kt winds. But this is well in the future and really hasn't much to support it.

ECM looks to develop it before his into a strong CAT 3+ storm, could be quite stunning, heat content will likely limit it, but it will be a very big strong storm.

[kold weather]

Yeah it probably will go fish in the no-mans land area of the Atlantic. mind you I'm not 100% sold yet that everywhere is safe, although small there is a risk to Bermuda I think in the long run if the system doesn't get toally recurved at the first weakness around day-5. The models have been too hasty nearly the whole season to take systems northwards, even with Ingrid the models were a good deal too far north of where it eventually died.

FWIW 12z GFS also shows a hefty system probably from 97L out in the Atlantic around 240-300hr mark, really can't miss it!

IMO track about 5-10 degrees further west of Helene 2006 and about the same strength, maybe a little stronger peaking.

Edited September 24, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Shear is still badly effecting 94L.

96L is now TD12 !.

97L has lost alot of convection but retains a very good skelatal structure.

[Somerset Squall]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE

FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF

TAMPICO MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO

INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[tinybill]

hi all just run my wave model program

after jerry,Karen

at 168 hr its showing another possible storm and the track is different then the other 2 could be a possible get a hurricane out of it

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height13

Edited September 25, 2007 by tinybill

[Iceberg]

They seem to be a bit invest trigger happy this year, not bothered to include all the ones going on yesterday.

Now there is only one though 94L nobody really has a clue what it will do, but models have toyed with making it a CAT 1 over the last 24 hrs, all depends on whether it stays over sea or just goes backwards and forewards over the Yucatan see the unlikely GFDL for an example.

[Somerset Squall]

We have invest 90L. It has gained organisation over the last 24 hours and although conditions are currently unfavourable the NHC highlights the possibility of better conditions in the Caribbean Sea which is where it is heading.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF

SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND

SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED

SINCE YESTERDAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL

DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

Anyone like to speculate what chances this one has of developing?

[Iceberg]

This might get named as TD 16 in an hour's time it's currently at 30 Kt.

Getting ready to post in the TD 16 thread if it does otherwise I'll post it here.

Matt

[Iceberg]

Yep we have TD 16 so will start a new thread