Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?

[Stratos Ferric]

The one thing you've written on which you might elaborate is: if and when this situation reverses and there is absolutely no evidence to say it will not happen, quite the reverse in fact. The one or two of us inclined to berate the doubters do so often because of this kind of statement. If there's evidence to say that the current trend is likely to reverse, then isn't it better, rather than just suggesting that it's there, actually to present it to us?

I refer you to the two links I provided in my earlier post today. Being berated for being a doubter is irksome, more so when 1): the links are provided to support a view, and 2): as my posts quite clearly explain, I am refering to a reversal in climate drivers from positive to negative, NOT AGW. Feel free to berate doubters, myself included if the information provided does not support our view, but it would also be nice if we were credited with more than just fanciful dreaming. I reach my views after research, not from a fantasy winter wonderland.

Jethro, firstly apologies for not following the links sooner, however, they are hardly compelling arguments for sustained cooling; in fact, so far as I can see on a scan, neither article mentions cooling at all. The first one, written in 2004 (since when, locally, we have warmed considerably), discusses macro-scale pattern variation in the North Pacific. Yes, there are some long waves in e.g. El Nino, however, the correlation between those waves and outcomes in NW Europe is present, but not consistent or strong. If your "pattern change" was so compelling, and started in the late 70s, then why the cold winters of the 80s, and the general warming trend since. At best many of the teleconnections discussed on these pages by some of their advocates are fairly weak, and when I was doing my studies the only one that stood up at all was El Nino, hardly surprising given the huge amounts of energy flux represented by the +ve and -ve phases. And so to your second link which very much seems to say just that, but little more. I certainly see nothing in either paper to suggets a long downwards correction. The most that a Nina / Nino event is ever likely to do is propogate a 3-4 year period of relative warming / cooling, but even a cursory scan of CET shows no regular pattern, so Nina / Nino alone cannot account for local variability (the link is stronger in the Pacific, but of course the SSTs are more immediate there).

I suggest that all that macro-scale oscillations like these do is to produce upwards and downwards swings, all the while around a slowly increasing mid line. As recently as 1986 our CET was in the upper-mid 8s. 9.23 in 1996 is now starting to look like an aberration, given the preponderance of low, mid, and last year, high 10s since. Until we get back below 10, and stay there (and even that would be a historically high level) any talk about rebound flies in the face of all the actual evidence to the contrary.

[noggin]

I continue to offer the same question I have offered many times before, and which, so fr as I'm aware, has yet to be answered by any of those hanging on to notions fo future cold; "at what point in future, given continued warming in trend, would you be willing to concede that our clmate looks like it is locked into long-term warming?", or is there no line in the sand beyond which you would give up hope for a rebound downwards?

Stratos......I took you up on this challenge some weeks ago. I said that if there was no discernible trend noted in 5 years from now, then I would concede that I was wrong about a cooldown being imminent. I based this on my belief that we had reached a plateau in 2003 and that in 5 years from now it would be 2012, giving a 9/10 year period to look back on. You did actually acknowledge the fact that I had "thrown my hat into the ring", so to speak.

Village Plank (hope you don't mind, VP :lol: )has since mentioned his/her understanding that currently meteorologists and climatologists look for at least 10 years for trends. So that ties in nicely with my basis for calculation of the 5 years from now scenario.

It's my point of view. Maybe I will turn out to be totally wrong. Maybe you will turn out to be totally wrong. Maybe we will all turn out to be totally wrong! Time will tell.

Thank you also for your reply to my other post and no offence taken.

[TEITS]

The best thing for both sides in this debate to do is to agree that no-one knows what is going to happen regarding the future.

This is one of the most sensible sentences on this thread and is one of the reasons why I haven't participated on this thread.

Personally I believe a cooling is going to occur with this coming winter being similiar to 62/63 :o :lol:

[Turnedoutniceagain]

This is one of the most sensible sentences on this thread and is one of the reasons why I haven't participated on this thread.

Personally I believe a cooling is going to occur with this coming winter being similiar to 62/63 :lol: :o

I'm also keeping my powder dry on this one. However...........did laugh at the GW campaigners at Heathrow, wearing bobble hats & fleeces in August

[laserguy]

Very nicely put Tamara,IMO! Pretty much what I was saying the other day but you put it better. The following brief account can in no way be likened or compared to weather and climate but I hope it will show just how wrong all the current indications and consensus can be.

December 19th 2003,I'm rushed to hospital where severe acute pancreatitis is eventually diagnosed. Off to intensive care where a state of coma is induced and I'm rigged up to life support. A week later and my pancreas starts to necrotise,ie consume itself and die. A tracheotomy is performed because my lungs and every other vital organ has shut down. By now there's no less than four pancreas experts on the case(this form of the disease is extremely rare),and they all concluded that I would die. My missus gets a phone call from the hospital just before New Year's Eve,saying that she'd better get there quick and bring our fourteen month old son because he isn't going to see his dad in the New year. The consensus was convinced that my time was up. At some point during my darkest hour,someone decided (after intense pleading from the missus,apparently) to phone and seek the advice of a pancreas expert elsewhere in the country whose ideas went against the grain but was by all accounts making a name for himself. Now he suggested that the medication and method of treatment I was receiving was most probably making matters worse and he suggested something else,which after a little head scratching was duly applied. Within twelve hours I'd stabilised,and the rest is history!

The point of this tale is to show that the consensus is by no means not always right. Stratos Ferric,I and I'm sure no-one else is disagreeing with you. There's no doubt that you know your stuff and I for one can learn much from you,but it isn't possible to say what's in store going on current trends. A trend,by its very nature will change and another trend will take its place,no?

Who can tell if this summer is the herald,the very first seed of a reversal in the current trend? No one. Maybe you are absolutely right Stratos,as I say I don't doubt your facts and figures for one moment or question the conclusions you,or anyone else come to. I'm going against the grain and sincerely feel that the days of the current trend are numbered and we are heading for a cool down. That's not just wishful thinking though I do freely admit to being a lover of the cold,of storms,etc,anything but sun and heat. That's not weather! I don't mind one bit if I'm proven totally wrong but I'd be disappointed at having to endure more of the nonsense of recent years! Weather's weather,it'll do what it will. All we can do is marvel at it,be thankful for it's variety and enjoy the bits of it that suits us as and when it comes along, 'cos there sure as hell ain't nothing we can do about it. But that's another debate I'm not getting into!

[Coast]

The best thing for both sides in this debate to do is to agree that no-one knows what is going to happen regarding the future.

With this in mind I do think it is nonsense and very premature to try, for example, to speculate what sort of winter is and isn't possible anymore eg we can't get a winter colder than 95/96. We just do not know - the weather will do what the weather will do and attempting to draw a line in the sand like this is setting oneself up for egg on the face as much as trying to suggest that we could surpass winter 62/63

:o 100% Tamara

However...........did laugh at the GW campaigners at Heathrow, wearing bobble hats & fleeces in August :o

It's just somewhere for them to keep their stash! :o :lol:

[laserguy]

Crikey - that is a most poignantly real analagy. A horrible ordeal - with an ending of what must have been huge relief. Glad you are ok :o

The downside is I'm rendered teeteotal. Totally. Boo Hoo.

[TEITS]

Hi Dave :o

lol!

yes perhaps being quiet on this one is the right approach for a while!

You know me Tamara never one to cause or stir argument :o .

I will say this though going back to Paul C orignal post on this thread I cannot help but wonder if something else is causing this dreadful summer apart from the variablity of our climate.

When you consider it could be the wettest summer since 1912, below average July CET & possibly August, no 30C recorded so far, and the most significant stat of this summer being you can count the days of 25C in one hand!. Makes me wonder what is the cause of this.

This summer has been a great example of what you said about not knowing what lies instore for us in the future because who on earth would of predicted a summer like this especially considering our summers in recent years!. You know I remember a thread not long ago on this forum talking about out off control GW and how above average CET months would become the norm!!

Some people may laugh at what im about to say but I still believe a winter like 62/63 is still possible in this country. The reason I think this is because the ingredients are still in place i.e remember the record cold in Russia a few winters back. Some people think the reason for our warming times is down to GW but this is a very simplistic way of looking at it because the real reason is down the synoptics we have been seeing in both summer & winter. There is proof in this by just looking at our summer so far and the synoptics we have been seeing in the models and you could use Dec 05 E,ly as another example because despite a lack of cold pooling to our E we still only managed a max temp of only -4C on the 29th!. You could say GW caused this change in the synpoptics but TBH nobody even the top scientists really know how our climate works and this is why GW cannot be blamed for our changing synoptic patterns because there could well be numeous other factors causing this i.e sunspot, SST's etc.

Let's face it during the next 10 years we could well see a change in our synoptic patterns and that summers like this one could well be the norm and that our winters could well be dominated by N blocking and then of course if this was the case the annual CET would drop significantly compared to the last 10 yrs.

I have no doubt the clairvoyants will disagree with my post and I think one member in particular should change his name to Nostradamus :lol:

[Bobby]

The best thing for both sides in this debate to do is to agree that no-one knows what is going to happen regarding the future.

Nobody has ever claimed to know what will happen in the future. Nobody knows for sure, but this is science, and we can use science to predict what's very likely to happen in the future, and the science says that things look likely to continue to warm. Just because a prediction isn't a certainty doesn't mean that it is to be ignored! The predictions are that it will continue to warm and I see no reason to believe otherwise. Saying that "we don't know" what will happen in the future is stating the obvious and is a pretty moot point.

[jethro]

Jethro, firstly apologies for not following the links sooner, however, they are hardly compelling arguments for sustained cooling;

SF, I'm either not explaining myself very well. or you are not understanding. We seem to be going off at tangents; I'll get back to you when my communication skills are in finer fettle.

[laserguy]

Magpie,the professional doom-mongers on TV are telling the public at large that they know exactly what's going to happen in the future regards climate change. This stuff is being shovelled down the throats of people who couldn't tell a cumulonimbus from a fog bank so they've really no option but to accept it as gospel. These people should be charged with inciting fear and dread. Everyone on this forum has the capacity to at least dissect the information at their disposal but what percentage of the population has any inclination to do such a thing,regardless of whatever conclusion they may arrive at? Not meaning to be disrespectful in any way,but I wonder how many people we're going around during the summer floods manically telling each other "it's all because of global warming y'know,bloke on GMTV said so",' immediately before panning back to shots of Pete 'n' Jordan doing their shopping or whatever?

[jethro]

TEITS: thank you, precisely what I've been trying and failing, to make folk comprehend.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

...by the way, and as a footnote, the same arguments for "blip" and "reversal" were doing the rounds on here in 2004, and before that for a couple of years on slowatch. I continue to offer the same question I have offered many times before, and which, so fr as I'm aware, has yet to be answered by any of those hanging on to notions fo future cold; "at what point in future, given continued warming in trend, would you be willing to concede that our clmate looks like it is locked into long-term warming?", or is there no line in the sand beyond which you would give up hope for a rebound downwards?

SF

I gave this one back last winter. For me there is a point where I'd concede certainly where cooling is a gonna.

What I base my view on is

1] We have just entered perturbation cycle wher La Nina will be the dominant force compared to last 30-35 where El Nino dominated. We know that regular and strong El Nino will add to 'warm' things up. The 'cold 3 decades in the 20th century were during the last La Nina cycle. A good fit [might be coincidence] but ceratinly a good fit.

2] Sunspot cycle 23 was weaker than anticipated [very lively but a lot weaker] and sunspot 24 is believed to continue the trend. This leads onto the approaching Gleissberg minima first peak or bottom in 2032 but with downhill trend. To be of the Maunder, Wolf, Dalton scale all associated with cold climate. [Again there may have been other forcings but a good fit].

3] Cosmic flux increase from 2012 due to weakening magnetic field from the sun believed to increase cloudcover. Certain clouds warm certain clouds cool.

4] If 3 occurs the forcings on the planet could create more volcanic activity. It could create more but I do not advocate an ice age freeze.

So on above very short summary I think there should be clear indications of a cooling [scale variable] by 2015. If the trend continues up with the above well into the swing then I'll throw my towel in.

In fact I've gone global there! Point one alone IMO should/could be enough to see a change in the UK as I think QBO and AO could be affected due to this which will have a mid latitude knock on effect. [by the way I don't see a cold winter coming but average is my call]

regards

BFTP

[VillagePlank]

I despair, I really do ....

[shuggee]

lol VP. Do you despair at the hope and desperation placed upon unproven factors that may or may not influence the weather patterns of our climate that are routinely staked against the evidential based scientific proven facts that show our climate and that of the planet is warming? Or do I read you wrong?

[VillagePlank]

lol VP. Do you despair at the hope and desperation placed upon unproven factors that may or may not influence the weather patterns of our climate that are routinely staked against the evidential based scientific proven facts that show our climate and that of the planet is warming? Or do I read you wrong?

I know even less than the least educated person around here, yet, even I can see that a mathematical basis, ergo, a scientific basis is essential for any argument purporting to say even a modicom of truth about future weather.

I've made my stab, badly, and I accept that fully, but blindly clinging to an opinion is, frankly, fruitless.

Edited August 21, 2007 by VillagePlank

[shuggee]

Yes - In my mind, I'm comparing it more and more to the difference between religion/faith and reason. The scientists vs the clergy etc. But religion is the opiate of the masses and provides comfort for many. We didn't ought to judge.

[VillagePlank]

Yes - In my mind, I'm comparing it more and more to the difference between religion/faith and reason. The scientists vs the clergy etc. But religion is the opiate of the masses and provides comfort for many. We didn't ought to judge.

I take my telling off in the good grace in which you gave it. I'll shut up, now, and hide in my hole. Reminder to self - no more pub-lunches ....

[shuggee]

lol. More pub lunches would be my suggestion! I 'm thinking about starting an athiest weather forecasters club - I wonder what the correltaion between scientific rigour and religous belief is?!! Need to get Richard Dawkins to call by and explain things!

Having said all that (rather tongue-in-cheekily I hope people appreciate), it was our Tamara G who back in late April produced a very interesting argument that was based upon the CET competition. Tamara argued that the hardest call of all was to predict the first CET month to come in below average - saying that this was somehow 'harder to forecast' than simply saying next month will be a +XºC anomaly. I called her names - which in our forum relationship got me the retort that I was 'refreshing and frank' in my application of the language (see sig). But there is a serious point in there too. Who would have believed that July and maybe now August 2007 would come in under mean? This leads me to believe that it's not all black and white in our little corner of the planet and surprises do happen - but that to dismiss the evidence is as ignorant as to not believe that the unexpected can happen and does happen

[VillagePlank]

lol. More pub lunches would be my suggestion! I 'm thinking about starting an athiest weather forecasters club - I wonder what the correltaion between scientific rigour and religous belief is?!! Need to get Richard Dawkins to call by and explain things!

Having said all that (rather tongue-in-cheekily I hope people appreciate), it was our Tamara G who back in late April produced a very interesting argument that was based upon the CET competition. Tamara argued that the hardest call of all was to predict the first CET month to come in below average - saying that this was somehow 'harder to forecast' than simply saying next month will be a +XºC anomaly. I called her names - which in our forum relationship got me the retort that I was 'refreshing and frank' in my application of the language (see sig). But there is a serious point in there too. Who would have believed that July and maybe now August 2007 would come in under mean? This leads me to believe that it's not all black and white in our little corner of the planet and surprises do happen - but that to dismiss the evidence is as ignorant as to not believe that the unexpected can happen and does happen

I called it. And I'm an idiot.

[shuggee]

Me too!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I called it.

Yep, and you didn't use alleged indesputable facts. Good call!!

BFTP

[Duane S.]

Magpie,the professional doom-mongers on TV are telling the public at large that they know exactly what's going to happen in the future regards climate change. This stuff is being shovelled down the throats of people who couldn't tell a cumulonimbus from a fog bank so they've really no option but to accept it as gospel. These people should be charged with inciting fear and dread. Everyone on this forum has the capacity to at least dissect the information at their disposal but what percentage of the population has any inclination to do such a thing,regardless of whatever conclusion they may arrive at? Not meaning to be disrespectful in any way,but I wonder how many people we're going around during the summer floods manically telling each other "it's all because of global warming y'know,bloke on GMTV said so",' immediately before panning back to shots of Pete 'n' Jordan doing their shopping or whatever?

So very very true.

It's about time these peabrained environmental journos stop hyping it all up, looked up the word 'moral' and either write more balanced articles or start backing up their scandalous predictions with some grain of scientific fact Ah! now there in lies the problem...

[mcweather]

You know me Tamara never one to cause or stir argument .

I will say this though going back to Paul C orignal post on this thread I cannot help but wonder if something else is causing this dreadful summer apart from the variablity of our climate.

When you consider it could be the wettest summer since 1912, below average July CET & possibly August, no 30C recorded so far, and the most significant stat of this summer being you can count the days of 25C in one hand!. Makes me wonder what is the cause of this.

This summer has been a great example of what you said about not knowing what lies instore for us in the future because who on earth would of predicted a summer like this especially considering our summers in recent years!. You know I remember a thread not long ago on this forum talking about out off control GW and how above average CET months would become the norm!!

Some people may laugh at what im about to say but I still believe a winter like 62/63 is still possible in this country. The reason I think this is because the ingredients are still in place i.e remember the record cold in Russia a few winters back. Some people think the reason for our warming times is down to GW but this is a very simplistic way of looking at it because the real reason is down the synoptics we have been seeing in both summer & winter. There is proof in this by just looking at our summer so far and the synoptics we have been seeing in the models and you could use Dec 05 E,ly as another example because despite a lack of cold pooling to our E we still only managed a max temp of only -4C on the 29th!. You could say GW caused this change in the synpoptics but TBH nobody even the top scientists really know how our climate works and this is why GW cannot be blamed for our changing synoptic patterns because there could well be numeous other factors causing this i.e sunspot, SST's etc.

Let's face it during the next 10 years we could well see a change in our synoptic patterns and that summers like this one could well be the norm and that our winters could well be dominated by N blocking and then of course if this was the case the annual CET would drop significantly compared to the last 10 yrs.

I have no doubt the clairvoyants will disagree with my post and I think one member in particular should change his name to Nostradamus

A good post there TEITS. It would be naive in the extreme to think we cant have a winter colder than 95/96 again and if the synoptics were right something approaching 62/3 is not out of the question. You rightly point out that it is synoptics that control our day to day and week to week weather. People who think winter has died a death are in for a rude awakening at some point. The point about our most severe winter in the 20th century 16/17, 39/40 46/47 62/63 78/79 etc is that they are by definition rare events either side of the long term average. Just because AGW may have pushed the average up slightly doesnt mean to say that events ranging wildly either side of that new average can,t occur. Like you I await the beast from the east with for he shall return!

[Bobby]

A good post there TEITS. It would be naive in the extreme to think we cant have a winter colder than 95/96 again and if the synoptics were right something approaching 62/3 is not out of the question. You rightly point out that it is synoptics that control our day to day and week to week weather. People who think winter has died a death are in for a rude awakening at some point. The point about our most severe winter in the 20th century 16/17, 39/40 46/47 62/63 78/79 etc is that they are by definition rare events either side of the long term average. Just because AGW may have pushed the average up slightly doesnt mean to say that events ranging wildly either side of that new average can,t occur. Like you I await the beast from the east with for he shall return!

As a well known strong "believer" in AGW I agree with this. Our climate has warmed but it hasn't warmed so much as to make a severe winter impossible. In fact I do believe a winter like 95-96 will happen again the future, perhaps even more severe than that. It may even be this winter. It's entirely possible, just more unlikely.