Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?

[Noctilucid]

TBH i dont think this is a turning point, from now on i beleivethe weather will be all over the place, with extremley hot years (aka 2006,2003), unusually cold and wet years (2007 so far,2004) and in between years such as 2005, global warming isnt warming at all, it just makes the extremes move further and further apart, so well be having some years or months that are incredibly hot with prolonged heat and a Euro High permanenlty stuck in place, and other years or months that are incredibly wet and cool, with strong northern blocking and a Jet blasting right down the channel, and if any strong pattern gets going, itll stay like that for a long time.

I think that todays summers are decided by the start of June, if a strong pattern is established by then, it is likely to give us heat or cold and wet that will dominate.

Joe

[snowmadchrisuk]

TBH i dont think this is a turning point, from now on i beleivethe weather will be all over the place, with extremley hot years (aka 2006,2003), unusually cold and wet years (2007 so far,2004) and in between years such as 2005, global warming isnt warming at all, it just makes the extremes move further and further apart, so well be having some years or months that are incredibly hot with prolonged heat and a Euro High permanenlty stuck in place, and other years or months that are incredibly wet and cool, with strong northern blocking and a Jet blasting right down the channel, and if any strong pattern gets going, itll stay like that for a long time.

I think that todays summers are decided by the start of June, if a strong pattern is established by then, it is likely to give us heat or cold and wet that will dominate.

Joe

My feelings at the moment are that could cause problems in the winter months , with persistant northern blocking throu out the spring and summer months i'm getting to thinking it is likely there will be a complete turn around in the winter months with no northern blocking present! I would also go with a below avarage ppn for december and january with hp most porbably right on top of us possibly at least keeping us cold but dry. Only inital thoughts, but just as we would have loved to see the current setup in the winter in the winter we most probably be saying if this had only happened in the summer. Not sure of a turn around, I believe the jet is causing the current problems and the jet could be influenced in some way by la nina.

Edited July 24, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[Scorcher]

TBH i dont think this is a turning point, from now on i beleivethe weather will be all over the place, with extremley hot years (aka 2006,2003), unusually cold and wet years (2007 so far,2004) and in between years such as 2005, global warming isnt warming at all, it just makes the extremes move further and further apart, so well be having some years or months that are incredibly hot with prolonged heat and a Euro High permanenlty stuck in place, and other years or months that are incredibly wet and cool, with strong northern blocking and a Jet blasting right down the channel, and if any strong pattern gets going, itll stay like that for a long time.

I think that todays summers are decided by the start of June, if a strong pattern is established by then, it is likely to give us heat or cold and wet that will dominate.

Joe

I do agree with what you're saying, I think we will have some exceptionally hot periods interspersed with cooler and wetter periods. I think there is a strong possibility that the Euro High could have a major influence again next summer- and if this happens there is always the potential for records to be broken. It's interesting that you consider 2007 to be a 'cold year'- June was above average but it is all relative I suppose. It has been a 'cold' summer compared to last year.

[Noctilucid]

I do agree with what you're saying, I think we will have some exceptionally hot periods interspersed with cooler and wetter periods. I think there is a strong possibility that the Euro High could have a major influence again next summer- and if this happens there is always the potential for records to be broken. It's interesting that you consider 2007 to be a 'cold year'- June was above average but it is all relative I suppose. It has been a 'cold' summer compared to last year.

i agree, i think 2007 is almost certainly a blip, and that it will be buisiness as ususal next year, the thing is that we dont have seasons now, we have 'months' of weather, alternating between zonal trains of lows and a flat jet and extreme heat and a euro high, we can no longer guarentee that winter will be cold or that summer will be hot.

Joe

[Don]

I too think this Summer is just a blip and we'll soon be back to month after month of above average temperatures. Having said that, the talk of the warming 'stepping up a gear' earlier this year could be placed in doubt, as this July is showing that colder than average months can still occur. We'll have to see what happens over the next few years for a more definate answer to that trend though.

[Norrance]

i agree, i think 2007 is almost certainly a blip, and that it will be buisiness as ususal next year, the thing is that we dont have seasons now, we have 'months' of weather, alternating between zonal trains of lows and a flat jet and extreme heat and a euro high, we can no longer guarentee that winter will be cold or that summer will be hot.

Joe

I don't think that we could ever guarantee a cold Winter or a hot Summer. The nearest in my lifetime for Winter would be the the late eighties after almost ten years of mostly cold Winters and look what happened in 88 and 89. For Summers the best guarantee of hot would be now and look what is happening this year. The weather is always unpredictable though there are trends such as to warmer overall as is the case now.

[Duncan McAlister]

i agree, i think 2007 is almost certainly a blip, and that it will be buisiness as ususal next year, the thing is that we dont have seasons now, we have 'months' of weather, alternating between zonal trains of lows and a flat jet and extreme heat and a euro high, we can no longer guarentee that winter will be cold or that summer will be hot.

Joe

Be careful about generalising to much in the present - 2006 started with a long, fairly cold winter and contained a long, exceptionally hot summer - very much a year of seasonal extremes!

On the other hand there have been many seasons that have been damp squibs with little temperature variation.

Just look at the temperature range for the January CET - from a continental -3.1C to a balmy 7.5C. The seasons in Britain have never been reliable.

Edited July 24, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[Stratos Ferric]

From my point of view, 3 months out of 48 is not a lot.

I believe that this plateau started in 2003.

3 out of 48 may not appear to be many, that's for sure. Out of interest, how often ordinarily WOULD you expect a monthly record to be set?

I still can't understand how anyone can argue that a plateau was reached in 2003, and in the same post concede that since that point three records have been set. It's like a smoker saying "I gave up smoking in 2003", and then choosing to dismiss every cigarette they've smoked since when challenged with facts to the contrary. Either temperatures have stopped rising or they haven't, you can't have it both ways.

Let's face it Noggin, no amount of evidence to the contrary is going to make you change your mind on this.

i agree, i think 2007 is almost certainly a blip, and that it will be buisiness as ususal next year, the thing is that we dont have seasons now, we have 'months' of weather, alternating between zonal trains of lows and a flat jet and extreme heat and a euro high, we can no longer guarentee that winter will be cold or that summer will be hot.

Joe

I'm not sure we ever could. The general trend at present though, this summer notwithstanding, is to decreasing probability of what little chance there used to be of a cold winter, and an increasing chance of the little chance there used to be of a warm summer. The mushing of the seasons I agree with, though this simply reflects the reduction in winter cold; remove the cold from winter and all you have is autumn / early spring but with shorter days. The slow "Mediterraneanisation" of our climate.

[david16]

How depressing would it be if we were just to have 2 seasons every year in the UK. Spring and autumn. But no winter or summer.

Edited July 25, 2007 by david16

[Stratos Ferric]

How depressing would it be if we were just to have 2 seasons every year in the UK. Spring and autumn. But no winter or summer.

I vaguelly recall a discussion last wonter to this effect. I seem to recall that the "modern" year is:

Janvember, Febtober, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, Decvember: and we have spring, summer and autumn.

[cheeky_monkey]

Be careful about generalising to much in the present - 2006 started with a long, fairly cold winter

did i miss something in the winter 2005/2006...long and fairly cold my backside!

[ribster]

did i miss something in the winter 2005/2006...long and fairly cold my backside!

Um, it was rather cold, colder than average I seem to remember as forecast by the met office, quite a few ice days too. It was pretty chilly right up to april/may. Sure it was nothing groundbreaking, but it was colder than we had experienced for some time.

[Duncan McAlister]

did i miss something in the winter 2005/2006...long and fairly cold my backside!

That's a bit unfair, sure the actual 3-month winter just scraped below the average (although Dec and Feb were below 61-90 CET average) but the point is it lasted from mid-November to late-March (again, both below the 61-90 average, March substantially so) without much in the way of mild in between. That is a rarity in the modern climate!

Edited July 30, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[laserguy]

Summer 2007 has been undoubtedly disappointing for most people and businesses,and downright disastrous for more than a few. Personally though,I think it's been just fantastic and a very welcome relief from the intolerable heat of recent summers. I mean,who in their right mind finds pleasure in going to work and going about their daily business when temperatures are 28C+? I sincerely hope that this summer does indeed mark a 'turning point ' and we can look forward to a winter which follows suit.

With regard to global warming,I believe that a good analogy is to imagine a roller coaster on its painfully slow ascent up its ramp and its pregnant pause at the apex before the rapid plunge down the other side. Also,I believe the activities of man have about as much chance of influencing the climate as they have of changing the orbit of Pluto through telekinesis,ie none.

Any changes to climate much surely be instigated by natural causes such as solar output,geophysical changes etc. It is a well established fact that rises in CO2 FOLLOW an increase in temperature,they never PRECEED it! This comes about as the oceans warm up and in doing so they liberate some of their vast quantities of dissolved CO2. But what causes the oceans to warm up? Think about this for a moment. If you wanted to heat up a bathful of water you wouldn't do it by blowing warm air across it's surface,you'd be at it forever! The heating must be coming from below. As well as releasing CO2 it causes increased evaporation of water which can only go into the atmosphere as water vapour. Water vapour has to condense (which in itself causes cooling) into clouds(which reflect sunlight and further excacerbates the cooling),and while all this is going on the oceans continue to warm up and force more water vapour into the air.

Rather than 'the runaway greenhouse effect' which frankly I am sick of hearing about (the root of it all being our need to preserve the dwindling supplies of fossil fuels),the most likely imminent scenario is a rapid plunge into something more akin to an ice age. And that is a million times more scary than the worst imaginings the Government sponsored global warming doom mongers can ever dream up.

[kippure]

Summer 2007 has been undoubtedly disappointing for most people and businesses,and downright disastrous for more than a few. Personally though,I think it's been just fantastic and a very welcome relief from the intolerable heat of recent summers. I mean,who in their right mind finds pleasure in going to work and going about their daily business when temperatures are 28C+? I sincerely hope that this summer does indeed mark a 'turning point ' and we can look forward to a winter which follows suit.

With regard to global warming,I believe that a good analogy is to imagine a roller coaster on its painfully slow ascent up its ramp and its pregnant pause at the apex before the rapid plunge down the other side. Also,I believe the activities of man have about as much chance of influencing the climate as they have of changing the orbit of Pluto through telekinesis,ie none.

Any changes to climate much surely be instigated by natural causes such as solar output,geophysical changes etc. It is a well established fact that rises in CO2 FOLLOW an increase in temperature,they never PRECEED it! This comes about as the oceans warm up and in doing so they liberate some of their vast quantities of dissolved CO2. But what causes the oceans to warm up? Think about this for a moment. If you wanted to heat up a bathful of water you wouldn't do it by blowing warm air across it's surface,you'd be at it forever! The heating must be coming from below. As well as releasing CO2 it causes increased evaporation of water which can only go into the atmosphere as water vapour. Water vapour has to condense (which in itself causes cooling) into clouds(which reflect sunlight and further excacerbates the cooling),and while all this is going on the oceans continue to warm up and force more water vapour into the air.

Rather than 'the runaway greenhouse effect' which frankly I am sick of hearing about (the root of it all being our need to preserve the dwindling supplies of fossil fuels),the most likely imminent scenario is a rapid plunge into something more akin to an ice age. And that is a million times more scary than the worst imaginings the Government sponsored global warming doom mongers can ever dream up.

This goes down as the best first post in net weather history. Welcome to net weather lazerguy. :blush:

[laserguy]

Cheers,kippure. I've plenty more where that came from!

[kippure]

Cheers,kippure. I've plenty more where that came from!

You really summed it up there, in a nut shell. :blush:

[eddie]

It is my view that 2006 set a CET benchmark that is not going to get beaten easily and regularly. Certainly not in the short term anyway. I believe the freak warmth was due not just to AGW but also exceptional synoptics and global climate paterns.

I suppose this month should really be a reminder that AGW does not guarantee above average temperatures. We haven't moved any further away from the arctic or the sea and if the wind blows in the right direction it can still be colder than average.

I wouldn't say that 2007 is a turning point but I certainly wouldn't be suprised if we have reached a temporary plateau where we see yearly CETs in the 9.9C-11C range for the next decade.

The UK seems to have warmed a good 0.4C more than the global average temperature and I can't help but feel some of that is due to synoptics rather than background warming.

Edited July 30, 2007 by eddie

[benalmadena29]

forget abouth of gw,proof that gw is a fraud is in google look in videos the great warming global,the only truth is that we are aproaching the total CAOS betwen 2010 and 2020 and the worth thing is that is a natural cicle and we cant do nothing to stop it the solar system is crossing an interestelar cloud which explain the changes happening in the lates years in the sun and the rest of the planet including the earth.we can say that the planet is under a a big presure and every day will grow more and more until the CAOS happen the old civilization LOS MAYAS they called this LA GRIETA OSCURA(THE DARK HOLE) ,whith relation have the sun with the earth,accordind to VIKTOR BOKOV(predict earthquaque whith 70 90 per cent of acuracy) the climate change is absolutely relate with the sun,volcanic and sismic activitates,in the next years this activitates will increases,tha not allthis will result in many earthquaques ,volcanic eruption and tsunamis,they believe that the great volcano of Yellowstone that in last year have register an anormalities,example the ground have raise 7cm,every 60000 years happen a big eruption in Yellowstone the last was 64000 years ago,this eruption could take the hole planet and extint the life ,and also create a glacial age that can happen with the double solar minimun forecast betwen 2012-2030.In the last 50 years we can observe more solar activitates that from history going back to GALILEO The doctor VIKTOR BOKOV from AARI(intitution for investigation of artic and antartic),the main in the world and the only one to forecast the tsunami in the indico ocean say with the base metereological index Vanghenheim-Girs that we are aproaching an ICE AGE,that will star in 2010 and will have his peak in 2090.in 2006 Dr. Kabhibullo Abdusamatov chief of the russian space station in america the similar is NASA refuses the tesis of KIOTO,say exactly the same,in 6 ,9 years we will star a mini ice age,many expert scientific of the sun, Solanky o Soon y Baliunas, de la Universidad de harvard ,make the same forecast. Theodor Landscheidt was the only one to predict El Niño,also in the 1990 was talking abouth of the incoming mini ice age because we are aproaching the minimun of Gleissberg of 2030. from there came all the cool weather tha the world as a hole have been havening(not uk by now) .all acording to the solar cicle of Suess of 180 years,also came the cooling down because the period of minimun of Dalton del XIX have finish...........will continue 2morrow as i have more information sorry 4 my english i am spanish and probably have make many ortografic mistake bye 4 now :blink:

[osmposm]

I sincerely hope that this summer does indeed mark a 'turning point ' and we can look forward to a winter which follows suit.

With regard to global warming,I believe that a good analogy is to imagine a roller coaster on its painfully slow ascent up its ramp and its pregnant pause at the apex before the rapid plunge down the other side. Also,I believe the activities of man have about as much chance of influencing the climate as they have of changing the orbit of Pluto through telekinesis,ie none.

Well, I hope it , too, LG, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen any time soon.

There are a number of things that I would take issue with in your post - the CO2-follows-not-leads argument is well discussed here, and in links: http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/02/...-not-leads.html . It's really not as simple as you make out. And while of course it's quicker to heat up a bath full of water with a big heat source below, it would not take "forever" to do it by heating the air above - it takes a long while, certainly, and the bath, like the oceans, retains its coolness deep down for long after the surface warms up, as you would expect. Is there measurement evidence that the oceans are in fact warming from the bottom up? If so, perhaps you could point us in its direction, it would certainly strengthen your case.

As to our inability to influence our planet's climate, it seems certain that human deforestation and over-grazing severely exacerbated the desertification of North Africa - a process that continues today. And calculations suggest that the detonation of a large portion of even today's reduced thermonuclear arsenal would be more than adequate to trigger "nuclear winter" over much of the planet. Or maybe that doesn't count.

Your analogy of a rollercoaster is attractive - but my fear is that the ride has only just started, and the slow climb - together with occasional brief drops followed by further slow climbs - has a long, long way to go.....not to mention the real possibility that any final 'rapid plunge' may not be to lower temperatures at all, but into an accelerated period of warming.

Ossie

[laserguy]

Hi Osmposm! Thanks for for taking the time to read my post and commenting on it. I'll be very happy to direct you to my 'sources' and why I reach the conclusions that I do but, (and I swear this is not a cop-out!), it's gonna have to wait for a week due to crippling work commitments (hey,I've just walked through the door and it's 11.30pm). Suffice to say though,I really don't buy any of this man-made global warming stuff with the possible exception of countless millions of H-bombs going off simultaneously(which of course we haven't seen-yet).

Thanks to everyone else who's commented,much appreciated,and I'll be back when time is on my side.Here's to the coming cool down!!

[pottyprof]

Welcome to the forum benalmadena29

I'm going to leave the untranslated post hidden for now and see if we get a decent translation. Then we'll decide where it needs to go.. :lol:

Please stay on topic peeps.. Thank you..

[david16]

I don't want to see an iceage.

I'm just fed up with the maritime tropical in winter being almost exclusive rather than being at times.

Satan has been in far too much control in the winter on our shores for far too long over the past 20 years.

Edited July 31, 2007 by david16

[Polar Continental]

This post could have gone in the July CET thread but probably more appropriate here:-

Although the trend is seeping upwards, I think July shows some low key but solid enough proof that the margin of warming that has truly occured is significantly lower than that which perceived in some quarters.

The bigger picture has shown a shake-up and redistribution of global temperature profile since the polar anomalies reversed from negative to positive and the AO has swung from strongly positive to significantly negative - there is much more going on than so called 'GWUK'

In conclusion one might be cautiously hopeful that if any turning point has been reached at all in summer 2007, then it is one of managing expectations/perceptions of our current climate more realistically, even if the climate itself is probably not on any turning point from a gradual warming one - at the present anyway.

:lol:

Tamara

an excellent post, all be it slightly off topic

It is my view that 2006 set a CET benchmark that is not going to get beaten easily and regularly. Certainly not in the short term anyway. I believe the freak warmth was due not just to AGW but also exceptional synoptics and global climate paterns.

I suppose this month should really be a reminder that AGW does not guarantee above average temperatures. We haven't moved any further away from the arctic or the sea and if the wind blows in the right direction it can still be colder than average.

I wouldn't say that 2007 is a turning point but I certainly wouldn't be suprised if we have reached a temporary plateau where we see yearly CETs in the 9.9C-11C range for the next decade.

The UK seems to have warmed a good 0.4C more than the global average temperature and I can't help but feel some of that is due to synoptics rather than background warming.

Some good posts appearing in here, and some excellent key points being made.

When I started this thread, I was suggesting that we may have reached a turning point, all be it a very subtle one.

I wasn’t suggesting a huge turn around in our weather and temperatures, just the beginnings of a trend towards something more seasonal.

Having said that, the weather throughout this summer so far has been far from seasonal lol.

But looking at the big picture, the unusual / extreme weather we’ve had since May shows what was needed to turn around the ridiculous warmth from an almost Mediterranean type climate this country seemed to be sliding towards, to a more normal type British climate we should be seeing.

The last few days of sunshine and pleasantly warm days and cooler nights are much closer to what we should expect in the British Isles. Many people have been complaining about the weather over the last few days, saying it’s not warm enough, but in my opinion many have been spoiled by the extreme warmth of the last few summers. 30c plus temperature for weeks on end is extreme for this country, three hot days, 24c to 25c and a thunderstorm is the norm.

Paul

[The PIT]

Funny how one month can swhow how definatley things have a changed climate wise. However it doesn't and it's just another normal blip associatted with our climate and on it's own doesn't proof anything.