Polar Ice sets new minimum

[Iceberg]

There has been a very strong APJ during the last few weeks. I think more than anything the ice extent has been effected by this rather than warming. This would fit in with the increased temp varience with the larger ice as is extends out. A greater expanse of ice particularly as the temp starts to rise.

Ther reverse of what we had in March/April when we had lower arctic ice but more high pressure.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hmm mm, this appears to be significant.

For those aligned with Cryosphere today's "record ice extent " in Antarctica last southern winter I have a question

above is the C.T.'s anom plot showing the 'record' and the current ice levels (as they measure them). It would appear that even though we had a record ice extent (according to them) we are also now at least 2 weeks ahead of last years melt season? How can this be???

I have maintained all along that max. ice extent was reached about 2 weeks early (around Aug 28th) where after the pack underwent catastrophic fragmentation and outward drift on the winds flowing off the Antarctic continent.

The increased ablation rates would then lead to rapid melt and dispersion of the shattered pack.

Ice extent was reached 2 weeks early and we are (according to C.T.) 2 weeks ahead of times in our southern melt season. To me there seems to be a pattern emerging here..........

Any comments?

Ian.

GW

Looks like something we can't answer. Maybe direct contact with C.T may enlighten us.

regards

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

GW

Looks like something we can't answer. Maybe direct contact with C.T may enlighten us.

regards

BFTP

I've never been one to sit back and ruminate when I know I can figure things out myself (don't like being dependant......always been an inependant thinking/acting kinda Wolf) and as such I agree with B.F.T.P. and will approach C.T. to find out their 'take' on things.

[BrickFielder]

Just as the Arctic is affected by stratospheric warmings so is the antarctic. This tends to introduce a blocked pattern across the southern hemisphere and move cold air out of the pole towards mid latitudes. I think we can see signs of a warming in the southern hemisphere or at least an early break up of the polar vortex.This was predicted and reflects strong activity in the Asian Monsoon earlier in the year.

This is likely to affect our weather with a resonating pattern forming in the northern hemisphere which reflects the pattern in the southern hemisphere.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Mr Chapman.! I've been watching, since late Aug, (with the MODIS suite of sat.s) this years fragmentation, drift and ablation of the Antarctic sea Ice. I was fairly surprised to find you had called an 'Ice extent' record in the first instance and then calmed a little when you declared a software problem. When you then called for a record a second time, even later in the season and against the prevailing conditions down there I was even more surprised. As such I went back over my images from aug 26th onwards (seeing as there appeared, from your graphs on ice extent, that the southern ice extent seemed to have had a 'standstill' around this point). From my observations there seems to have been a 'sheet wide' fragmentation event around the 28th Aug (Full moon tidal 'bulge'?) and thereafter the fragmented pack acted as normal and relaxed out into the southern oceans. Your current plots for ice extent would place us in excess of two weeks ahead of last seasons melt which would appear quite incredible if it was a 'record ice extent' over the last season but not if, since Aug 28th, the pack has been fragmenting and 'relaxing' outwards on the continental winds. I am awaiting Mr Grubines take on things but wonder if you would also like to put forward any explainations? I post on a U.K. weather Forum NetWeather.tv and seem to have stirred up a little 'spat' with my observatrions and as such clarification of the position would be useful both to myself and the other forum members. Thank you for your time on this matter, Kindest Regards, Ian Ballantine-Gray

The above is a copy of the E-Mail i've sent to Mr C. regarding our qureies.

[Mr Sleet]

Nice one Mr Gray. I look forward to the response. Do you think he'll reply though to someone who is a size 4 ?? B)

[Gray-Wolf]

When size three is as big as most men get I'm not too worried (LOL)!

[Gray-Wolf]

Seeing as so many folk appear to put such faith in cryosphere today I've been perusing the site recently (awaiting their '0 anomaly' day) seeing what they think is going on.

Today, according to their plots, we reached '0 anomaly' of the southern ice

as you can see we had to wait until mid Nov to see the same anom. level last year. That would be remarkable enough if we hadn't , according to C.T., had a 'record year' for ice down south last southern winter, kinda makes it doubly remarkable eh?

What reasons do you suppose account for this anomalous anomaly? I've not heard of continent wide warm weather down there nor have I seen warm SST's sitting around the edge of the continent. Maybe, just maybe the ice has been on the retreat since around Aug 28th after a 'tidal bulge fragmentation event'? What'd'ya think?

[Bobby]

This very pessimistic report on the Arctic ice and warming in general is worth a read I think. It says that summer Arctic ice could be esentially gone by 2013 and that CO2 levels are rising at a rate much faster then even the most pessimistic projections by the IPCC.

http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/Arctic.pdf

[Optimus Prime]

This very pessimistic report on the Arctic ice and warming in general is worth a read I think. It says that summer Arctic ice could be esentially gone by 2013 and that CO2 levels are rising at a rate much faster then even the most pessimistic projections by the IPCC.

http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/Arctic.pdf

It does make me laugh that every link posted about Arctic sea ice loss contains the word "CO2" in it. So I suppose there are no other gases in the Atmosphere that could be help causing the warming of the NH?

CO2 is a natural gas, please stop treating it like it's a foreign body.

[Bobby]

It does make me laugh that every link posted about Arctic sea ice loss contains the word "CO2" in it. So I suppose there are no other gases in the Atmosphere that could be help causing the warming of the NH?

CO2 is a natural gas, please stop treating it like it's a foreign body.

It's all very well saying that but much harder to back it up. Please stop saying things unless one can back them up.

[BrickFielder]

Carbon Equity have a little political bias and as such although they quote lots of peer reviewed papers some of the information is conjecture. The NSIDC report is much less biased and clear shows that winds across the arctic have changed and this is thought to be one of the main factors for the ice decline. The change of wind direction may be linked back to CO2 increases but equally may be linked to ozone changes.

[Devonian]

Carbon Equity have a little political bias and as such although they quote lots of peer reviewed papers some of the information is conjecture. The NSIDC report is much less biased and clear shows that winds across the arctic have changed and this is thought to be one of the main factors for the ice decline. The change of wind direction may be linked back to CO2 increases but equally may be linked to ozone changes.

I think it's as much/more to do with there being provably much less old thick multi year ice and that what is left is therefore younger thinner ice and that such ice is more easily moved about by the wind.

[Gray-Wolf]

The removal of the 'multiyear' not only just leaves single year ice but it opens up much more of the surface for both sea swells (not dampened out by a 'rigid 'multiyear pack) leading to further disruption (earlier in the summer) of this 'thin skin'.

The Polar year team had the joy of being rained on at the pole this year showing the effect of removing the 'cling film' cover of multiyear ice and exposing the plus C degree sea water to interface with the air above and not an ice sheet.

Evaporation/cloud formation involves air movements (up drafts) leading to a much more 'dynamic air column' over the area than it would be over solid ice. The position of the pole (like the south pole) leads to the type of 'circumpolar winds' that had set the remaining 'Multiyear ice' adrift (from its refuge behind Greenland) from Aug onwards and the 'Arctic Drift', in mid sept, (down between Greenland and Sweden) even had Carinth wondering about the 'chunks' drifting south on his thread.

I really don't see any way back for the pack now. Come next thaw the 'Multiyear ' will be adrift even earlier and it is no longer in the shadow of , and the micro climate of, Greenland. If they were surprised this year then just wait for whats left at the end of next summer!

[Devonian]

The removal of the 'multiyear' not only just leaves single year ice but it opens up much more of the surface for both sea swells (not dampened out by a 'rigid 'multiyear pack) leading to further disruption (earlier in the summer) of this 'thin skin'.

The Polar year team had the joy of being rained on at the pole this year showing the effect of removing the 'cling film' cover of multiyear ice and exposing the plus C degree sea water to interface with the air above and not an ice sheet.

Evaporation/cloud formation involves air movements (up drafts) leading to a much more 'dynamic air column' over the area than it would be over solid ice. The position of the pole (like the south pole) leads to the type of 'circumpolar winds' that had set the remaining 'Multiyear ice' adrift (from its refuge behind Greenland) from Aug onwards and the 'Arctic Drift', in mid sept, (down between Greenland and Sweden) even had Carinth wondering about the 'chunks' drifting south on his thread.

I really don't see any way back for the pack now. Come next thaw the 'Multiyear ' will be adrift even earlier and it is no longer in the shadow of , and the micro climate of, Greenland. If they were surprised this year then just wait for whats left at the end of next summer!

Makes sense. Perhaps the best hope is that the synoptics next year as unlikely to be the same as this.

[Mr Sleet]

I really don't see any way back for the pack now. Come next thaw the 'Multiyear ' will be adrift even earlier and it is no longer in the shadow of , and the micro climate of, Greenland. If they were surprised this year then just wait for whats left at the end of next summer!

GW, if you don't mind I've saved this comment to come back and beat you up with this time next year

[Gray-Wolf]

GW, if you don't mind I've saved this comment to come back and beat you up with this time next year

And I don't think I'd find any previous beating as pleasurable to take!!! (I hope I'm wrong!!!)

[Bobby]

My opinion is that this year is an anamoly. The trend of Arctic melting is certainly faster than is predicted, even discounting this year, but this year seems so exceptional that to me it must be an anomoly. I think things will eventually return to the long term trend. Still rapid ice loss, but not as mad as this year.

Edited October 23, 2007 by Magpie

[Gray-Wolf]

If it were an 'anomaly' then I've been most fortunate in the way I have seen (and posted) the demise of the Arctic 'Multiyear' pack. We will really see (if my 'view' is correct) the destruction of another large percentage of the Eastern/Northern flank of the ice next year and by then we'll know for sure.

Like most things the start is slow, almost imperceivable, but by the end things are much,much faster. The loss in mass/spread of the remaining pack leaves it more vulnerable than ever before. I thought it may keep a toehold behind Greenland but it didn't manage too and now it is a very different 'dynamic' with it's potential drift (and 'spin') towards the warm ingress at the Bearing end of the Basin.

[Bobby]

If it were an 'anomaly' then I've been most fortunate in the way I have seen (and posted) the demise of the Arctic 'Multiyear' pack. We will really see (if my 'view' is correct) the destruction of another large percentage of the Eastern/Northern flank of the ice next year and by then we'll know for sure.

Like most things the start is slow, almost imperceivable, but by the end things are much,much faster. The loss in mass/spread of the remaining pack leaves it more vulnerable than ever before. I thought it may keep a toehold behind Greenland but it didn't manage too and now it is a very different 'dynamic' with it's potential drift (and 'spin') towards the warm ingress at the Bearing end of the Basin.

Yes, we only have to wait 2 years to see if it's an anomoly or not. If the next 2 years carry on from this year, I am wrong and things really are very bad.

[BrickFielder]

I think it was partly an anomaly this year but the effects will linger on into the next few years.

From the NSIDC Report

Another factor that conspired to accelerate the ice loss this summer was an unusual atmospheric pattern, with persistent high atmospheric pressures over the central Arctic Ocean and lower pressures over Siberia. The scientists noted that skies were fairly clear under the high-pressure cell, promoting strong melt. At the same time, the pattern of winds pumped warm air into the region. While the warm winds fostered further melt, they also helped push ice away from the Siberian shore.

And this from the 26th of September 2007

Another important aspect of this year’s extreme decline is the ice drift. As noted in earlier entries, persistent high pressure over the central Arctic Ocean led to fairly clear skies for the most of the summer, promoting melt. However, at the same time, the pattern of surface winds also led to an export of ice from the eastern Siberian side of the Arctic northward and westward.

It is not all just an anomaly though and there are clear changes in wind patterns which are affecting the age of ice.

From the NSIDC Report on August 22nd 2007

Another aspect of the story for 2007 is the "memory" of the sea ice to changes over the past few decades. Specifically, there seems to have been a transition to younger, thinner ice beginning in the late 1970s. This reflects not only trends towards more summer melt and less winter ice growth, but changing winds that have transported fairly thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic, and decreased the length of time that ice is "sequestered" in the Arctic Ocean where it might have a chance to grow thicker.

NSIDC attribute these changes partly to natural phenomenon and partly to global warming , but the fact that the ice is so slow building this autumn means the ice will not have much chance to thicken during the winter again leading to a rapid melt next year.

Edited October 23, 2007 by BrickFielder

[Stratos Ferric]

My opinion is that this year is an anamoly. The trend of Arctic melting is certainly faster than is predicted, even discounting this year, but this year seems so exceptional that to me it must be an anomoly. I think things will eventually return to the long term trend. Still rapid ice loss, but not as mad as this year.

It's possible, however, as the anomaly I've posted in the arctic discussion in the seasonal thread shows, there's now a huge additional amount of energy entering the system at the pole that really oughtn't to be there. And it's not just a case of losing energy to freeze, energy fluxes so that what's lost to the atmosphere is readily replaced from 'below'.

I'd be worried that this is the top of the slippery and steep slope towards no permanent cover across the polar waters. The anomaly continues to expand, not shrink. It's all counter intuitive UNLESS we accept that there's now some positive feedback in the system.

[Gray-Wolf]

If the pattern holds true for next year, and the remaining multiyear ends up 'beached' on the Siberian coasts then it doesn't bode well for our summers as the ice ablates and flows south between Sweden and Greenland (as it did this year) allowing more summer monsoons courtesy of the cyclogenisis above the melt water.

[West is Best]

Antartic ice levels seem to be doing well - above the 1971-2000 average still for the time of year

The drop off halted with more ice forming in the last week or so.

[Gray-Wolf]

I wouldn't compare the lines on all the recently posted C.T. images though west!

Yeah, giant bergs falling off all over the place but that darn summer ice keeps on a'growin', Weddell and Ross a mash of slush with the odd floe in 'em but ,somewhere around the continent the ice is growing....,and growing...., and growing......

I'll just carry on watching it melt guys, you watch you pretty paper.....