Best time of year for cold synoptics - when?

[Jonnie G]

You can see the answer to this question fairly clearly in the daily CET data available on the Metoffice site (from 1772 onwards).

Roger, I have found some daily CET data at hadobs.metoffice.com site. Is this where you found the daily data? Call me stupid, but the data is in an array, and I can't see how to interpret it.

[Jonnie G]

That large area of open water northeast of Siberia is really a total wild card in the set-up, in my opinion, so much so that it could over-ride almost any analogue process at work, and I really think that all bets are off about the next few months with this in the complicated machine of global climate, my first impression was (as stated on another thread) that this should create high-amplitude flow over North America which at least puts some pressure on the flow over Europe to resolve away from a complicated set-up and provides all kinds of opportunities for arctic air to mass anywhere else but its most favoured position over Siberia for a change. But that could just as easily be central to eastern North America as Europe, I suppose.

I blame it all on the aliens behind the Moon, as you know.

Very good point about the wild card factor Roger. Perhaps the sea ice will decide to extend itself much further than usual on the European side of the arctic, although I somehow dought it.

[Jonnie G]

Roger, I have found some daily CET data at hadobs.metoffice.com site. Is this where you found the daily data? Call me stupid, but the data is in an array, and I can't see how to interpret it.

It's okay Roger, I was being stupid. Just spotted the format link next to the data link.

[Bottesford]

Does anyone know of a time (and if poss, the charts for said period) where the UK experience a *very* cold but also very dry & clear period? I'm looking for sub zero maxima & minima -10 or lower but with clear skies day & night. Basically, can clear, sunny skies still achieve sub zero maxima? Obviously we'll be looking December or January charts as the February Sun will be too strong I think.

[Jonnie G]

You can see the answer to this question fairly clearly in the daily CET data available on the Metoffice site (from 1772 onwards).

Incidentally, I was unable to spot even one day when the mean CET was below -10 C, perhaps I missed one or two, but the range from -6 to -8 C seems to be the standard for cold daily means in various cold winters, the degree of cold for a month or season depends mostly on how long that lasts rather than how intense the cold becomes. Clearly the trigger for such low temperatures is radiational cooling over snow cover, you can see in milder winters that there are usually a few spells close to zero daily means, the sign probably of cold highs with no snow cover.

I've just been through the daily CET data, and the lowest daily figures are: -11.9 20/01/1838

-10.8 25/12/1796

-9.3 04/01/1867

-9.2 08/01/1841

-8.9 10/01/1823

-8.8 09/02/1816

The most recent low one was -8.5 on 12/12/1981.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Does anyone know of a time (and if poss, the charts for said period) where the UK experience a *very* cold but also very dry & clear period? I'm looking for sub zero maxima & minima -10 or lower but with clear skies day & night. Basically, can clear, sunny skies still achieve sub zero maxima? Obviously we'll be looking December or January charts as the February Sun will be too strong I think.

B

Probably the best example I can give is Feb 86. The east was dull but midlands west was unbroken sunshine and it was bitterly cold. There were definitely ice days in this spell as it lasted the whole month -1.1c CET. I was growing up in Swansea at the time and we had snow end of Jan and it laid on the ground for a month. I remember the very sunny but freezing cold days and nights. Look at the archive/historic charts for the month but here is an example of that awesome month.

here

BFTP

[Bottesford]

Cheers for that - I'd be keen to experience something like that myself (can't remember '86 as I'd be 5 years old!) as a novelty. Not sure about an entire month as I think that'd really grate and cost a fortune in heating. But certainly for a week or so - freezing cold but sunny would be most interesting.

[Geordiesnow]

Cheers for that - I'd be keen to experience something like that myself (can't remember '86 as I'd be 5 years old!) as a novelty. Not sure about an entire month as I think that'd really grate and cost a fortune in heating. But certainly for a week or so - freezing cold but sunny would be most interesting.

I have to say i would find cold sunny days and frosty nights quite dull if it lasted a week, perhaps 2 or 3 days then i be getting a bit sick of it although i prefer that than warm sunny days and cool nights.

[phil nw.]

The trouble is a lot of northerlies tend to bring just cold and clear skies inland with any snow showers tending around coasts that are exposed to the wind during the high winter months.

You are more likely to see snow inland during March and April northerlies when showers can be generated. Only if its a vigorous northerly with troughs and polar lows are you likely to see snow inland during the high winter months.

I agree re. your comments about lack of Snow in a Northerly,Mr.Data as i know only too well living where i do.However i was referring really to the subject of the thread ie.Best time of year for cold(not necesserily Snowy)sypnotics.

Certainly for my location my best chance of lying Snow is from a polar Low or unusually active Cold front in a Northerly and from a Southerly tracking Low in an Easterly.

This is what i was thinking of from past Winters and what i meant when i said that those sypnotics appear less these days compared to the Winters of my younger days.

Kind regards,Phil.

Edited September 22, 2007 by phil n.warks.

[Snowyowl9]

Does anyone know of a time (and if poss, the charts for said period) where the UK experience a *very* cold but also very dry & clear period? I'm looking for sub zero maxima & minima -10 or lower but with clear skies day & night. Basically, can clear, sunny skies still achieve sub zero maxima? Obviously we'll be looking December or January charts as the February Sun will be too strong I think.

Yes feb 86 was the last great long freeze as BFTP said there`s been 2 since but shorter Jan 87 and Feb 91 with temps below -10 and clear frosty days well below freezing.

Jan and Feb 1985 winter stands out as another great example I can remember with dry clear skies with HP after heavy snowfall with severe frosts with Dec 81/Jan 82.

Earliest I can remember though was Jan 1979 after the New years eve severe blizzards then severe frosts.

Except you`d get frozen water pipes and diesel freezing which was a problem then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790102.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119850108.gif

[kippure]

Is there any chance of an Artic high forming early? Like in november or do they just form at the coldest periods. Hence there name?

[Jonnie G]

Does anyone know of a time (and if poss, the charts for said period) where the UK experience a *very* cold but also very dry & clear period? I'm looking for sub zero maxima & minima -10 or lower but with clear skies day & night. Basically, can clear, sunny skies still achieve sub zero maxima? Obviously we'll be looking December or January charts as the February Sun will be too strong I think.

February 1986 had six sub zero maxima in the CET record. I'm sure many of these were sunny days - low maxima easily achieved in February if the air mass is cold enough and especially with a snow cover. As recently as 02/02/2006 the maximum temperature in the CET record is -0.4, and this without a snow cover or fog.

[reef]

February 1986 was truely a remarkable month. It really is underrated, mainly because it wasnt particularly snowy in the context of the mid-80s winters.

Temperatures in Hull in Feb 1986:

Overall Average: -0.9°C.

Average Maxima: 1.1°C

Average Minima: -3.0°C

Absolute Max: 3.8°C

Lowest Max: -2.2°C

Highest Min: 2.2°C

Absolute Min: -12.1°C

Air Frosts: 22

Ground Frosts: 28

Ice Days: 4

A prolonged cold spell, the temperature didnt rise above 4°C between January 24th and March 4th. We didnt reach 15°C until April 30th that year either. Imagine the complaints if that were to happen now! Such a prolonged cold spell is what is missing from our climate these days.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

February 1986 was truely a remarkable month. It really is underrated, mainly because it wasnt particularly snowy in the context of the mid-80s winters.

Temperatures in Hull in Feb 1986:

Overall Average: -0.9°C.

Average Maxima: 1.1°C

Average Minima: -3.0°C

Absolute Max: 3.8°C

Lowest Max: -2.2°C

Highest Min: 2.2°C

Absolute Min: -12.1°C

Air Frosts: 22

Ground Frosts: 28

Ice Days: 4

A prolonged cold spell, the temperature didnt rise above 4°C between January 24th and March 4th. We didnt reach 15°C until April 30th that year either. Imagine the complaints if that were to happen now! Such a prolonged cold spell is what is missing from our climate these days.

Very impressive figures. For me [born 67] it was the Greatest winter month of my life.....no doubt about that.

Fred

[Jonnie G]

Very impressive figures. For me [born 67] it was the Greatest winter month of my life.....no doubt about that.

Fred

For me (also born 67) I would have to say February 1979 was the greatest winter month of my life, mainly due to the extraordinary blizzard of the 15th, which kept us sledging until early April. You know it's serious when there's a snow drift in your living room!

Edited September 23, 2007 by Jonnie G

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ay before my time cor dream chart www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790215.gif why cant we get those charts now

my main sn0w was thet of 19-20 nov 1996

[Jonnie G]

ay before my time cor dream chart www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790215.gif why cant we get those charts now

my main sn0w was thet of 19-20 nov 1996

Yes its one hell of a chart. The other comparably huge snowfall here in the East Midlands in my time was the 8th of December 1990. Around 12 to 15 inches of fairly level snow fell, but the 1979 event had very strong winds combined with low temperatures which caused the snow to form amazing structures of a scale comparable to the surrounding buildings. It was one bleak day.

[damianslaw]

Is there any chance of an Artic high forming early? Like in november or do they just form at the coldest periods. Hence there name?

Not sure about arctic highs. It depends on what you mean by a arctic high - if you mean a high that develops to the north of scandanavia and ridges south westwards to affect ourselves I don't recall many instances of this really ever happening (although I guess late Dec 1995 did see something of the sort).

I think most of our 'arctic highs' build over Greenland first or scandanavia/iceland districts not truely the arctic itself.

As for when such highs can deliver true wintriness I think certainly by November such highs can although intense cold is unlikely though their are exceptions 1919 being a remarkable Nov. (oh dear I'm thinking of winter already must think autumn....)

[Snowyowl9]

ay before my time cor dream chart www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790215.gif why cant we get those charts now

We have just 2 years ago which look even better charts except there was no extreme cold over russia during this spell.

Had quite a number of snow showers later this day which became more frequent but just gave a dusting at max temps of 2.3c.

First time I saw that chart from feb 1979 was last autumn when Steve Murr posted it.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For me (also born 67) I would have to say February 1979 was the greatest winter month of my life, mainly due to the extraordinary blizzard of the 15th, which kept us sledging until early April. You know it's serious when there's a snow drift in your living room!

Jonnie

Yes a close call for me but Feb 86 pipped it for its sheer persistence.....oh and being from S Wales my favourite chart of all time [as in my lifetime].

here

Funny it being the mid month again...just 2 days in it

BFTP

Edited September 23, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Just Before Dawn]

Yes its one hell of a chart. The other comparably huge snowfall here in the East Midlands in my time was the 8th of December 1990. Around 12 to 15 inches of fairly level snow fell, but the 1979 event had very strong winds combined with low temperatures which caused the snow to form amazing structures of a scale comparable to the surrounding buildings. It was one bleak day.

I remember that - We moved house that week (the Feb 1979 event) and it was a comedy on Ice.

[Jonnie G]

Jonnie

Yes a close call for me but Feb 86 pipped it for its sheer persistence.....oh and being from S Wales my favourite chart of all time [as in my lifetime].

here

Funny it being the mid month again...just 2 days in it

BFTP

Another nice looking chart, but the 850's aren't that low:-

here

The '79 event had really low 850's:-

here

Just spotted how cold Newfoundland and quebec were that day!

Edited September 23, 2007 by Jonnie G

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Another nice looking chart, but the 850's aren't that low:-

here

The '79 event had really low 850's:-

here

It was a beaut, 79, no doubt. In Feb 86 [recorded by Phil Eden somewhere] the ground had frozen to a metre below the surface such was the depth and length of cold.

BFTP

Edited September 23, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BARRY]

Yes feb 86 was the last great long freeze as BFTP said there`s been 2 since but shorter Jan 87 and Feb 91 with temps below -10 and clear frosty days well below freezing.

Jan and Feb 1985 winter stands out as another great example I can remember with dry clear skies with HP after heavy snowfall with severe frosts with Dec 81/Jan 82.

Earliest I can remember though was Jan 1979 after the New years eve severe blizzards then severe frosts.

Except you`d get frozen water pipes and diesel freezing which was a problem then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790102.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119850108.gif

I worked on the local foot passenger ferry in salcombe then, we had to light diesel soak rags put them in the air intake , then crank the engines by hand to start them,it wasn't just the diesel that was frozen

i was bloody frozen as the boats were open passenger vessels , the engines were air cooled so we could our feet in the air outlet and at least we were a little warmer

[Jonnie G]

Jonnie

Yes a close call for me but Feb 86 pipped it for its sheer persistence.....oh and being from S Wales my favourite chart of all time [as in my lifetime].

here

Funny it being the mid month again...just 2 days in it

BFTP

Jonnie

Yes a close call for me but Feb 86 pipped it for its sheer persistence.....oh and being from S Wales my favourite chart of all time [as in my lifetime].

here

Funny it being the mid month again...just 2 days in it

BFTP

I guess it snowed pretty hard in South Wales that day?